Tag: Week

  • The ultimate heroes of college football’s Rivalry Week

    Winning a rivalry game can cement a legacy. These games can also create legends. What happens during a college football rivalry lives on as some of the most iconic moments in the sport.

    Sometimes it’s a backup QB who must save the day. Sometimes it’s an unheralded player who saves his biggest performance for his team’s most-hated opponent. Sometimes it’s a player who absolutely owned a rival.

    From the Iron Bowl to the Territorial Cup to Michigan-Ohio State, each rivalry has “that guy.” He’ll get random autograph requests. He’ll never buy a meal in his college town. His big play will be a snippet in countless YouTube videos. It’s all because of what he did during Rivalry Week.

    Here are a few of our reporters favorite rivalry heroes:

    Jump to a game:
    Egg Bowl | GT-UGA | Minn-Wisc | Mich-OSU | UF-FSU
    Iron Bowl | Tex-A&M | SC-Clemson | ASU-UA | Pur-IU
    Tenn-Vandy | UK-Lou| UNC-NCSt | ISU-KSU | UVa-VT

    Record: Ole Miss leads 65-47-6

    Mississippi State DBs Robert Bean and Eugene Clinton, 1999

    The 1999 Egg Bowl will forever be known as “The Kick, Pick, Kick,” at least in Starkville. Both teams were nationally ranked, and Mississippi State rallied from a 20-6 deficit to tie the score with 27 seconds left. There was no overtime in those days, and instead of playing for a tie, Ole Miss decided to throw it down the field. That’s when the twosome of Bean and Clinton etched their names into Mississippi State football lore forever.

    “I just wanted to do something. Pull a rabbit out of the hat,” Clinton told television station WAPT in 2014.

    Bean leaped to intercept the pass, but it bounced off his hands and he accidentally kicked the ball into the air. Clinton was there to intercept it at the Mississippi State 47 and returned it 27 yards where he was knocked out of bounds at the Ole Miss 26. Scott Westerfield capped the improbable 23-20 win with a 44-yard field goal.

    “We talk about the excitement from that one game and what it meant to us as individuals, to those seniors and what it meant to Mississippi State University,” Clinton said in a story with MSU athletics. “After the years, it has grown to be something special and that game holds a special place in my heart.”

    — Chris Low


    Ole Miss WR Cory Peterson, 1997

    Before he was a U.S. senator, Tommy Tuberville was Ole Miss’ head coach in 1997 and made the bold call to go for the win instead of settling for a tie. After quarterback Stewart Patridge led the Rebels on a late 64-yard touchdown drive, then hit a diving Peterson on a crossing route with the 2-point conversion pass with 25 seconds left, it gave the Rebels a 15-14 win over No. 22 Mississippi State.

    Ole Miss went to a bowl game for the first time in five seasons and beat Marshall in the Motor City Bowl. Peterson went to the sideline and immediately vomited after the play.

    Peterson, whose father and uncle both played at Mississippi State, had two other memorable TD catches leading the Rebels to wins in 1998 against LSU and 1999 against Auburn. He said the 2-point pass would have been batted away by the Mississippi State defensive tackle but that Ole Miss center Matt Luke (formerly the Ole Miss head coach and now the offensive line coach at Clemson) knocked the tackle down on the play. — Low

    Record: Georgia leads 71-41-5

    Georgia Tech RB Roddy Jones, 2008

    Georgia entered the 2008 season with the No. 1 ranking, fresh off a Sugar Bowl win, and with a trio of stars — Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and AJ Green — leading the offense. But defeats at the hands of rivals Alabama and Florida had upended expectations, and by the time the Dawgs reached their rivalry game with Georgia Tech at season’s end, much of the air was out of the balloon. Little did they know how much worse things could get — or that the delivery method for that misery would be from a little known freshman A-back (Jones). It was Georgia Tech’s first year running the triple option under new coach Paul Johnson, and Jones had largely been a role player in the backfield until the week before, when he emerged with 97 yards on seven carries against Miami. Against the Dawgs, however, he became the most explosive player on the field. Jones carried just 13 times but ran for 214 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including a 54-yard score that put Tech up 10 with just 7:13 to play. The Yellow Jackets went on to win 45-42, and Georgia’s then-head coach Mark Richt fired most of his defensive staff days later.

    Jones was a productive back for Georgia Tech for three more years, finishing his college career with 2,259 scrimmage yards and 19 touchdowns, but he never had another game quite like his first experience with Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate. After his football career ended, he became a radio voice for the Yellow Jackets before landing a job with Raycom Sports and later with ESPN, where he’s now one of the network’s top color analysts for college football and other sports.

    “That game changed the path of my life. In the moment, I had no idea what it meant. I was just fired up to beat Georgia. But I spent the next three years of my playing career as one of the most popular players on the team because of that game against Georgia. Sixteen years later, it’s still the first thing Georgia Tech fans want to talk to me about, and it’s one of the best football memories I have.” — David Hale


    Georgia RB Theron Sapp, 1957

    Sapp, a former Georgia two-way star, is still remembered as the “Drought Breaker,” after he turned in big play after big play in the Bulldogs’ 7-0 upset victory over Georgia Tech in 1957, which ended the Yellow Jackets’ eight-game winning streak in the series.

    After Sapp recovered Floyd Faucette’s fumble near midfield early in the second half, Bulldogs quarterback Charlie Britt connected on a 13-yard pass to Jimmy Orr to move to the Tech 26.

    Sapp, a bruising fullback and linebacker, took over from there, running six consecutive times to move to the Tech 1. Britt was stuffed on a quarterback sneak on third-and-goal, and it seemed the Bulldogs might be turned away.

    “When we got back to the huddle, everybody was yelling, ‘Give it to Sapp! Give it to Sapp!’” Sapp told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in 2001. “I said, ‘Yeah, give it to me!’”

    The Bulldogs gave the ball to Sapp on fourth down, and he scored on a 1-yard run. It was Georgia’s first touchdown against Tech since 1953, and the only touchdown the Yellow Jackets gave up at Grant Field that season.

    Sapp ran for 91 yards on 23 carries. When Sapp returned to the locker room after the game, according to the Macon Telegraph, “blood was streaming from his face” and his nose “looked like a piece of bologna that had been freshly sliced.”

    It was Georgia’s first win over Tech in Atlanta since All-American Charley Trippi led them to a 33-0 rout in 1945.

    Sapp’s No. 40 jersey was retired by Georgia just over a year later.

    “I still get phone calls from people and they still remember the play and the game,” Sapp said in 2001. “The old-timers still do. It was 40 years ago, but I’ll never forget that game.” — Mark Schlabach

    Record: Wisconsin leads 63-62-8

    Gophers safety Jeff Rosga, 1993

    In 1993, Wisconsin swaggered into the Metrodome at 6-0, with a roster featuring future NFL players and set to begin a historic run under coach Barry Alvarez. Quarterback Darrell Bevell would pass for 423 yards that day, but Minnesota’s defense repeatedly turned away the Badgers, recording three interceptions and a key stand inside its own 10-yard line. Rosga returned one of Bevell’s interceptions 55 yards for a touchdown as Minnesota built a 21-0 lead and held on to win 28-21.

    Rosga’s pick-six still follows him — the Ray Christensen-narrated highlight will live forever — but he remembers a less-glitzy play, when he broke up a pass to Lee DeRamus on a skinny post while in single coverage late in the game.

    “You simply look back and you go, ‘Hey, what’s the chances that you’re going to be able to make that play when you’re in Cover 0 and you’re just out on an island with a guy that’s a NFL wide receiver, to make the play and then kind of seal the game, that’s a pretty special moment,” Rosga said. “It’s that old saying: We bent, but we never broke, and we were able to keep them out of the end zone when it counted.”

    Wisconsin would not lose again, tying with Ohio State and beating UCLA in the Rose Bowl to finish No. 6 nationally.

    “We eliminated their possibility for a national championship,” Rosga said. “People certainly remember that game, which is always pretty special, even 30 years later.”

    Rosga, a director at Life Time Fitness and a high school coach who still lives in the Minneapolis area, still attends Minnesota games. The Gophers-Badgers game is extra special in his family, since his brother, Tim, played for Wisconsin in the late 1990s.

    “We always try to watch it together,” Jeff said. “Our kids are on the different sides of the fence when it comes to who they’re rooting for. They are absolutely rivals that day.” — Adam Rittenberg


    Wisconsin RB Billy Marek, 1974

    Marek has a theory on why Minnesota couldn’t stop him in the 1974 rivalry clash at Wisconsin’s Camp Randall Stadium.

    “They couldn’t find me in the fog,” he said with a laugh. “It was a drizzly, rainy, foggy kind of day.”

    Marek, a Wisconsin Hall of Famer, set the school’s career rushing (3,709 yards) and scoring (277 points) records, and had no better performance than the 1974 Axe game. After a slow start to the season, Marek faced Minnesota on a hot streak, having eclipsed 200 rushing yards in his previous two games. The holes continued to open against the Gophers and never closed. Marek even had several long runs called back on penalties.

    “It’s the only game in my life I was actually very tired by the time we got to the fourth quarter,” Marek said. “They had taken me out going into the fourth quarter and then they said they were going to put me back in. Somebody said, ‘You’re close to 300,’ and I was like, ‘Oh, OK.’ The place was going crazy.”

    Marek finished with 304 rushing yards and five touchdowns in a 49-14 win over a Minnesota team quarterbacked by Tony Dungy. His single-season team rushing record stood until Ron Dayne broke it in 1996.

    He recently retired after a long career in athletic licensing, most recently with Pro Standard and Fanatics, which took him to many top sporting events. He’s also a regular at Wisconsin games.

    “I’ve always had four season tickets there, so my family, my kids, have grown up going to the games,” said Marek, who lives in Chicago. “We always have [Minnesota] at the end of the year, and you want to finish strong.” — Rittenberg

    Record: Michigan leads 61-51-6

    Michigan WR John Kolesar, 1988

    Kolesar might not have ended up at Michigan had it not been for the father of Jim Tressel. Kolesar’s dad, Bill, played for Tressel’s dad, Lee, at Mentor (Ohio) High. Woody Hayes had just taken over at Ohio State in the early 1950s. Lee Tressel then didn’t know what to make of Hayes. So, he encouraged Bill Kolesar to play for Michigan instead.

    Ultimately, Hayes would become a Buckeyes icon. Jim Tressel would coach Ohio State to the 2002 national title. And John Kolesar, who followed his father to Ann Arbor, would become a Michigan legend.

    In 1988, the Wolverines trailed late. But Kolesar returned the ensuing kickoff 59 yards. Then, he hauled in a winning, 41-yard touchdown from quarterback Demetrius Brown for the 34-31 victory.

    “Kolesar won the game for us,” legendary Michigan coach Bo Schembechler said afterward. “He really bailed us out.”

    Kolesar’s son, Caden, also attended Michigan and played a key role on special teams for the Wolverines’ national championship team last season. John Kolesar said he has had many Buckeyes fans buy him a beer over the years while living in the Cleveland area.

    “And the biggest question I get is, ‘Oh man, I could never forget [the 1988 game]. Why’d you go to Michigan?’” said Kolesar, who now resides in Florida, though plans to attend this week’s game against Ohio State. “But there are just countless stories of how these two teams are so mirrored and tied to one another.” — Jake Trotter


    Ohio State QB Troy Smith, 2006

    In 1936, Tippy Dye became the first Ohio State quarterback to defeat Michigan three years in a row. Seventy years later, the Buckeyes finally had a second quarterback achieve the same feat.

    In 2006, Smith clinched the Heisman Trophy by throwing four touchdown passes to four different receivers, propelling top-ranked Ohio State to a 42-39 victory over No. 2 Michigan. The performance gave Smith his third consecutive win over the Wolverines and catapulted Ohio State into the national championship game.

    In 2005, Smith engineered a furious two-score comeback in the final seven minutes, lifting the Buckeyes to a 25-21 win. And, in 2004, Smith rushed for 145 yards to go along with three total touchdowns in a 37-21 victory.

    Over his three wins over the Wolverines, Smith produced nine touchdowns and 857 passing yards. — Trotter

    Record: Florida leads 37-28-2

    Florida QB Noah Brindise, 1997

    Steve Spurrier has been known to have a flair for the dramatic. But the 1997 game against Florida State took that to another level. Facing undefeated and No. 1 Florida State at home, the two-loss Gators had one goal in mind: Ruin the Seminoles’ national championship chances. To do it, Spurrier made one of the most unconventional decisions of his career: He would rotate Brindise, a former walk-on, and Doug Johnson at quarterback. Not every series.

    Every play.

    The Gators had scuffled on offense in the second half of the season, and Spurrier had grown frustrated and impatient with all three of his quarterbacks — playing a combination of Johnson, Brindise and freshman Jesse Palmer. To beat the Seminoles, and the No. 3 defense in the country, Spurrier decided switching between quarterbacks would give them the best chance because he could not only coach each between plays — he could send the quarterbacks in with the plays and avoid any signal stealing.

    “We were like, it sounds kind of crazy, but let’s do it,” Brindise recalled.

    Florida State took a 17-6 lead, but the Gators stormed back and the teams traded the lead in the fourth quarter. With less than two minutes to play, down 29-25, Johnson called for a curl-and-go for Jacquez Green that went for 62 yards. Fred Taylor scored the winning touchdown and Florida won 32-29 in what is still regarded as one of the greatest games ever played in the Swamp. Brindise took the final snap to close out the win, and still has that ball in his office.

    “It was one of those magical nights,” said Brindise, who now works in medical device sales. “I still get it pretty regularly from Gator fans who tell me, ‘That was the greatest game I’ve ever seen.’ I think my actual role in helping us win has been inflated quite a bit over the years, but it definitely feels special that I was a part of that.” — Andrea Adelson


    FSU QB Marcus Outzen, 1998

    Entering its game against Florida in 1998, Florida State knew it had to win to keep its national championship hopes alive. After Chris Weinke was lost for the season because of a neck injury in early November, those championship hopes rode with Outzen, affectionately known as “The Rooster” for his red hair and fiery personality. Outzen had been buried on the Seminoles’ depth chart, but a succession of injuries landed him as the starter when Weinke went down. He won his first start against Wake Forest, but the offense played inconsistently. The fourth-ranked Gators would provide a much bigger test. In fact, there were so many questions about how the Seminoles would play with Outzen behind center, they entered the game as underdogs.

    A pregame fracas — in which Doug Johnson threw a ball that nearly hit Bobby Bowden — only served to underscore the animosity between the two, and the high stakes. Florida jumped out to a quick lead, but the game turned on a fluky play in the third quarter. Florida safety Marquand Manuel jumped in front of an Outzen pass, only to let it slip through his hands. Peter Warrick caught it on the deflection, put on a few moves, got an impressive block from Snoop Minnis and scored a 32-yard touchdown. The Seminoles never trailed again, shutting out Florida in the second half to win 23-12. Outzen finished 13-of-22 for 167 yards and a score, and he used his legs to keep the Gators defense off balance, too, as the Seminoles locked up their spot in the national title game against Tennessee.

    In the locker room afterward, Bowden sang an old folk number about a Rooster in front of the entire team. Outzen said afterward, “It’s a dream come true for me.” Outzen died earlier this year at age 46 from a rare immune deficiency disorder. His place in Florida State lore, however, will never be forgotten. — Adelson

    Record: Alabama leads 50-37-1

    Auburn DB David Langner, 1972

    Langner returned two blocked punts for touchdowns on back-to-back possessions in the fourth quarter, both blocked by Bill Newton, to rally Auburn past No. 2 and unbeaten Alabama in a 17-16 win at Legion Field in a 1972 game that will forever be known as “Punt Bama Punt.”

    The Crimson Tide led 16-3 with just under six minutes to play when Langner returned the first blocked punt 25 yards for a touchdown and the second one 20 yards for a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining. Langner also intercepted a last-ditch pass by Alabama to seal the win. It was Alabama’s only SEC loss between 1970 and 1976, and it was another decade before Auburn would beat Alabama again.

    “Both of the balls looked identical to me,” Langner said after the game. “They just bounced into my hands. All I had to do was pick them up and run. It was by far the greatest thrill I’ve ever had.”

    The Alabama punter that day was Greg Gantt. He and Langner went to high school together at Woodlawn High in Birmingham. Sadly, they both died young and only 2½ years apart, Gantt in 2011 of complications from heart disease and diabetes, and Langner in 2014 of cancer. — Low


    Alabama DB Rory Turner, 1984

    The Iron Bowl is filled with its own nicknames for certain games, and the star of the “Wrong Way Bo” game in 1984 was Alabama safety Rory Turner. Alabama was on its way to its first losing season in 27 years, making the 17-15 upset of No. 11 Auburn and Bo Jackson even sweeter. On fourth-and-goal from the 1 with 3:27 to play, Auburn coach Pat Dye decided to go for the touchdown instead of kicking the short field goal. Jackson misheard the playcall and went the wrong way, and Brent Fullwood was left without a lead blocker. Turner drove Fullwood out of bounds for a 3-yard loss.

    Fullwood had earlier pulled Auburn within two points on a 60-yard touchdown run. The Alabama students were sitting in that end zone for that fourth-down play, and it was so loud that Jackson misheard the call at the line of scrimmage and left Fullwood one-on-one with Turner.

    After the game, Turner famously told reporters, “I just waxed the dude.” Auburn still had a chance to win it in the final seconds, but Robert McGinty’s 42-yard field goal attempt was no good. — Low

    Record: Texas leads 76-37-5

    Texas DB Mark Berry, 1990

    In the mid-1980s, a proud Texas football program was mired in mediocrity. Fred Akers went 20-14-1 in his final three seasons between 1984-86 and was replaced by David McWilliams, who then went 16-18 in his first three seasons. Even worse, Texas was on a six-game losing streak to Texas A&M over that span. The Longhorns were lost.

    By 1990, there was hope. Unranked in the preseason polls, the Longhorns beat No. 21 Penn State in the opener, before falling 29-22 to Colorado (which would go on to claim the national title after an Orange Bowl win over Notre Dame). Heading into the rivalry game against the Aggies, the Longhorns were 9-1 and on what they called the “Shock the Nation” tour after beating No. 4 Oklahoma in Dallas and No. 3 Houston at home. The Aggies came into the game unranked despite being 9-2-1 with road losses to LSU and Houston by a combined 14 points and a tie against Baylor. They’d won four straight heading into Austin with bragging rights on the line.

    Darren Lewis, who had become the Southwest Conference’s leading rusher, had 25 carries for 150 yards against Texas that day and became just the fifth player ever to cross 5,000 career rushing yards. With 3:46 left, Aggies QB Bucky Richardson, who had just scored on a 32-yard option keeper, pulled A&M to within 28-27, and coach R.C. Slocum opted to go for two and get the win in Austin. The Aggies ran another option play, kicked it out right to Lewis, and corner Mark Berry found himself one-on-one with the star running back, an old friend he grew up with in Dallas. Lewis slipped briefly, but Berry shed a block and dropped Lewis.

    “When I got to Darren, I could see it in his eyes,” Berry said after the game. “He had nowhere to go but over me. We’re good friends, but this time I won.”

    The tackle was the difference in the game, ending the Longhorns’ losing streak to the Aggies.

    “I think that’s the only tackle we had on Darren Lewis all day,” McWilliams said. “But if I had to pick a time to have one, that would be it.”

    Berry went on to become a firefighter, a paramedic and returned to Texas in 2002 to get his degree in social work. He lives in Dallas, and his wife, Tamejia, is the assistant fire chief of Dallas Fire Rescue and the highest-ranking woman in the department. —Dave Wilson


    Texas A&M WR Matt Bumgardner, 1999

    In 1999, Texas A&M’s bonfire, an annual tradition before the Aggies played Texas, collapsed a week before the game, killing 12 Aggies who were working on the stack of logs and injuring 27 more.

    The teams played the game the following week, an emotionally fraught scene in College Station in front of the largest crowd ever to watch a football game in Texas at that point. The No. 24 Aggies had just lost 37-0 at Nebraska two weeks prior, while No. 7 Texas came in on a five-game winning streak, fresh off a 58-7 win over Texas Tech.

    A&M players had missed two days of practice following the tragedy, including helping to lift logs off the pile while helping search for survivors. Texas A&M coach R.C. Slocum was concerned all week about his team wearing down due to the real-world emotions involved. And by the half, the Aggies trailed 16-6. But by late in the game, Texas A&M was driving. With 5:02 left in the game, quarterback Randy McCown was supposed to throw left, but he looked right and saw his roommate, Matt Bumgardner. Bumgardner was a big, physical receiver, but he had caught just three touchdowns in his Aggies career. McCown lofted it up, and Bumgardner, who later told the Houston Chronicle that he momentarily lost the ball in the afternoon shadows, retrieved it, catching a 14-yard TD pass and giving the Aggies a 20-16 lead.

    A&M’s Jay Brooks forced a fumble by Major Applewhite, and linebacker Brian Gamble recovered it to finish off the game with an emotional scene as he raised his arms to the sky in a week the Aggies desperately needed it.

    Bumgardner told the Chronicle in 2019 that people still tell him how important that catch was to them.

    “You can see how much that win means to fans and former students, people who were watching it with their mothers and fathers and brothers and sisters at home,” Bumgardner said. “Everyone was hurting a lot — the whole Aggie community was hurting.”

    Bumgardner went on to work as a behavior specialist for emotionally unstable children in schools in the Houston area and ran a nonprofit assisting students with special needs to get equipment they need. “The kids I’ve worked with? They’ve put my life into perspective,” he said. — Wilson

    Record: Clemson leads 73-43-4

    Clemson WR Rod Gardner, 2000

    For South Carolina fans, the play will forever be known as “The Push-Off.” That’s not how Rod Gardner — or anyone in Clemson orange, for that matter — remembers it, though.

    The Gamecocks led 14-13 with just 19 seconds to play in their tilt with rival Clemson on Nov. 18, 2000. The Tigers, led by QB Woody Dantzler, were deep in their own territory, facing a third-and-12. They needed a miracle. Gardner delivered with either one of the most remarkable catches in school history or, for the folks from Columbia, one of the most egregious non-calls in the rivalry’s history. Dantzler heaved a pass deep down the right sideline, and Gardner — with three South Carolina defenders surrounding him — hauled in the catch for a 50-yard gain. Clemson sprinted to the line of scrimmage, spiked the ball, then booted a short field goal for a 16-14 win.

    The Tigers anointed the play “The Catch II,” the heir apparent to the original “Catch,” made by Jerry Butler in a 1977 win over the Gamecocks.

    Gardner became a first-round draft pick the next spring, going 15th overall to the Washington Redskins. He finished his rookie season with 741 yards — including 208 in a game against Carolina that year — and four touchdowns, then blossomed in 2002, catching 71 passes for 1,006 yards and eight touchdowns. In 2003, he even got some work at QB, throwing two TDs. After four seasons with Washington, he spent parts of 2005 and 2006 with Kansas City, Carolina and Green Bay before retiring from football. He’d later star on season 36 of “The Amazing Race” with his wife. They finished third.

    “I did have my hand on his shoulder. But I never pushed him. Never extended,” Gardner told The Athletic in 2020. “I just had my hand on his shoulder to feel where he was at, and when the ball came, I made the catch and it was game over. And it was the best play ever.” — Hale


    South Carolina QB Mike Hold, 1984

    In 1984, QB Mike Hold had alternated with Allen Mitchell at QB that season then helped rally the Gamecocks from a 21-3 deficit on the road against Clemson.

    With seconds left, Hold scored the winning 1-yard touchdown, giving South Carolina its first win at Clem

    It was a wild finish, as Hold’s TD tied the game after he completed a huge 36-yard pass a few minutes earlier. But the Gamecocks needed the extra point to win it. Scott Hagler hooked the PAT to the left, but Clemson had 12 men on the field. Hagler got another chance and made it this time. Clemson got the ball back but couldn’t get a first down.

    The game ended with Hold taking a knee and famously handing the ball to massive Clemson DT William “Refrigerator” Perry, who wouldn’t take it. There’s an iconic photo of that moment.

    Hold later appeared in “The Program” and “The Waterboy” as a college quarterback. — Low

    Record: Arizona leads 51-45-1

    Arizona State DL James Brooks, 2010

    At roughly 270 pounds when playing for the Sun Devils, one would expect that defensive end James Brooks’ athleticism would be shown horizontally more than vertically. Yet on a Saturday night in Tucson during the 2010 season, Brooks’ leaping abilities saved ASU not once but twice in a double-overtime thriller.

    When QB Nick Foles led the Wildcats to what looked like a game-winning drive with 30 seconds left in the fourth quarter, Arizona needed only a PAT to emerge victorious. But as the ball was kicked, Brooks leapt in the air and blocked it, sending the game into overtime. In overtime, Brooks did it again. Arizona needed to match ASU’s touchdown in the second overtime period, but after it got into the end zone, it all came down to another PAT. Brooks once again flew through the air, and this time his block was a walk-off that put Arizona State at six wins and sent it to a bowl game.

    “I go down in the books as a Sun Devil forever,” Brooks said at the time. “More important than getting the glory, I get to be around ASU and the history books forever.”

    Brooks left the team the following year for personal reasons, but he has carved out a career for himself in the European League of Football. Brooks first played for the Cologne Falcons in 2013 and has been suiting up at defensive end for the Prague Lions for the past four seasons. — Paolo Uggetti


    Arizona K Max Zendejas, 1985

    As a place-kicker, you are not going to earn the nickname “Sun Devil killer” without coming through in some crucial rivalry spots. Zendejas, who spent four years in Tucson, did it not just once but multiple times against an ASU team that, at one point, included his brother, Luis.

    In 1983, the two faced off against each other in that year’s Territorial Cup. Luis hit three field goals during that game, and a late touchdown put ASU up 15-14. Max wasn’t done. With time expiring, the other Zendejas made his mark on the game by splitting the uprights from 45 yards as time expired, giving the Wildcats a rivalry win.

    Two years later, Zendejas did it again. This time, with the Sun Devils being a win away from a Rose Bowl berth and leading 13-3, Zendejas hit two clutch field goals in the fourth quarter: a 57-yard bomb that matched the school record and tied the game at 13 as well as a 32-yarder to put the Wildcats ahead for good. That year Zendejas led the conference with 22 field goals and was named the team’s MVP. He went on to be drafted in the fourth round in 1986 by the Cowboys and spent four seasons in the NFL with four different teams.

    “Playing against ASU, kicking against my brother and putting them out of the Rose Bowl, there were a lot of great memories here,” Zendejas said in an interview with Arizona Football earlier this year. — Uggetti

    Record: Purdue leads 77-42-2

    Purdue LB Mike Marks, 1980

    Whenever Purdue fans meet Mike Marks, they inevitably bring up the 1980 Bucket game with Indiana and his heroic play to thwart a Hoosiers’ comeback. Purdue had won four straight in the series and was sending off record-setting quarterback Mark Herrmann. But Indiana nearly spoiled the party after Steve Corso, son of coach Lee Corso, hauled in a touchdown pass with 17 seconds left to make the score 24-23.

    Lee Corso went for two and the win, but Marks, a standout linebacker, deflected Tim Clifford’s pass intended for Steve Corso. Indiana recovered an onside kick and attempted a 59-yard field goal for the win, but Marks again got his hands on the ball.

    “It’s amazing how many people remember it,” Marks said. “Most players don’t think, they react. That’s what it was in that moment. I had a responsibility, I knew what it was, and I happened to be at the right place at the right time.”

    Marks remembered Lee Corso coming into Purdue’s locker room after the game to address the team.

    “He was so gracious,” Marks said. “I remember him standing up on a bench in front of the lockers and said, ‘You guys deserve this great game. This will go down in history.’”

    Marks coincidently played “the best game of my life” the week before against Michigan, recording 26 tackles, an interception, a fumble recovery and a blocked kick. But Purdue lost 26-0. His performance in the Bucket game sticks. — Rittenberg


    Indiana K Austin Starr, 2007

    As an oral surgeon in Bloomington, Indiana, former Indiana kicker Austin Starr often meets patients with connections to the Hoosiers’ program and especially his most memorable moment, a 49-yard field goal to beat Purdue in the 2007 Bucket game. But one recently brought him full circle.

    He was removing the wisdom teeth of a teenager whose mother went into labor on Nov. 17, 2007, apparently from excitement or anxiety around Starr’s kick.

    “I love and will never get sick of hearing when people were at when it happened,” Starr said.

    His biology professor emailed him the day after the game, noting that Starr was responsible for interrupting a peaceful moment at a campus bus stop because of the “enormous roar from the North” at Memorial Stadium. Another patient of Starr’s was driving and had to pull over because of nerves — and to get a clear signal for broadcaster Don Fischer’s call.

    Starr’s kick capped off an emotional year for Indiana, which lost coach Terry Hoeppner to brain cancer that June. Hoeppner’s goal was to “Play 13,” a 13th game that would end Indiana’s 13-year drought without a bowl appearance. The Purdue win clinched the postseason.

    “It meant so much to me,” said Starr, who went to Indiana’s dental school and then did his residency at Ohio State, and still sees Hoeppner’s widow, Jane, in Bloomington. “Coach Hoeppner always preached about team and family and unity and coming together to achieve a common goal. I have applied so many principles since I was an athlete here at IU to life. The one word I go back to is gratitude.” — Rittenberg

    Record: Tennessee leads 80-33-5

    Tennessee DB Eric Berry, 2008

    It was Phillip Fulmer’s last game as Tennessee’s coach in 2008, as the university announced earlier in the season that he would not return. Vanderbilt was in the midst of one of its best seasons and favored in the game for the first time since 1984. The Vols, assured of a losing season, weren’t going to a bowl and were limping to the finish of the season in Nashville.

    Eric Berry, a future College Football Hall of Famer, was a big part of making sure that day that his Hall of Fame coach went out a winner. Berry returned an interception 45 yards for a touchdown in the first half, and Tennessee won 20-10 despite completing just four passes in the game.

    Berry set an SEC single-season record that year with 265 interception return yards. — Low


    Vanderbilt WR Earl Bennett, 2005

    Vanderbilt snapped a 22-game losing streak against Tennessee in 2005 and won 28-24, the first time the Commodores had beaten the Vols since 1982 and the first time at Neyland Stadium since 1975. The hero of the game was receiver Earl Bennett, a freshman who caught all three passes and accounted for every yard in the game-winning drive, including a 6-yard TD pass with 1:11 left.

    Bennett caught 14 passes that day, the start to a stellar career at Vanderbilt. He set the SEC single-season record for receptions by a freshman that season (79), none bigger than his final catch.

    “You see grown men crying and you realize how long it’s been since we’ve won,” Vandy quarterback Jay Cutler said after the game. “It tells us how much it means to this program.”

    Bennett is still at Vandy. He was promoted to senior associate athletic director this year, after returning to his alma mater in 2021 in a player developmental role on the football staff. After earning his undergraduate and master’s degrees at Vanderbilt, he got his doctorate at Houston. — Low

    Record: Kentucky leads 20-15

    Louisville RB Tony Stallings, 2000

    In the only overtime game in Governor’s Cup history, Louisville prevailed thanks to a standout effort from tailback Tony Stallings, who sealed the win with a 25-yard scamper up the middle for a touchdown, walking off with the victory late in the night after the game had been suspended due to rain for more than an hour.

    The Cardinals trailed for much of the game but took a 20-19 lead late in the third quarter, but Kentucky’s Marlon McCree scooped up a fumble and returned it for a score to give UK the lead again. Louisville tied it late, but McCree looked to give the Wildcats the win when he recovered another fumble, returning it to the Louisville 2. But the Cardinals’ defense held and Curry Burns blocked an 18-yard field goal try to send the game to OT. Anthony Floyd picked off Kentucky QB Jared Lorenzen in the first frame of overtime, and Stallings came on to score the game winner on Louisville’s first play of extra time.

    Stallings finished the 2000 season with 810 rushing yards and wrapped his Louisville career in 2001 with 1,569 scrimmage yards. He spent time playing football in the Canadian, Arena and European football leagues, but retired with his sights set on an acting career.

    Now going by T.C. Stallings, his acting credits include “Secretariat,” “War Room” and “The Watchers.” He has also published several books and is a Christian minister. — Hale


    Kentucky QB Stephen Johnson, 2017

    Kentucky entered the game, as the players noted beforehand, with an 8% chance to win according to ESPN’s metrics, Stephen Johnson recalled. He was the junior college transfer QB. On the opposite sideline was the eventual Heisman winner and two-time NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson. It was a rivalry game, but it was also a Cinderella story for the Wildcats. Kentucky’s offense came to life with Johnson at the helm, and the Wildcats took a 38-31 lead early in the fourth quarter. But Jackson still had plenty of magic left, tying the game at 38 with 7:44 to play and threatening the win with a first-and-goal at the UK 9 with 1:45 to go. But Jackson fumbled on the next play, and Johnson drove Kentucky 60 yards on seven plays to set up the game-winning 47-yard field goal. He finished with three touchdown passes and a career-high 338 passing yards in the 41-38 win.

    Johnson’s Kentucky career was marred by injuries, including surgery on a knee and both shoulders, and his college career ended after he was hit — late, by his estimation — in the Music City Bowl in 2017. Johnson announced soon afterward that he was retiring from football rather than pursuing a pro career, and he went on to spend the next seven years living in his hometown of Rancho Cucamonga, California. He recently moved to Michigan, where his wife will pursue a doctorate at University of Michigan.

    “When I’m back in Kentucky, people always talk about that game and the Tennessee game [from 2017]. But that game in particular, that stood out the most because we were such an underdog and it was a rivalry game, so it made it that much sweeter.” — Hale

    Record: UNC leads 68-39-6

    UNC RB Giovani Bernard, 2012

    The 2012 rivalry game between North Carolina and NC State was back-and-forth throughout, with UNC jumping to a 15-0 lead, NC State fighting back to take a 35-25 lead in the fourth quarter, then the Heels connecting on a Bryn Renner TD pass and a field goal to tie the game with just 1:24 left to play. NC State’s ensuing drive stalled, and the Wolfpack lined up to punt with 30 seconds remaining in regulation, and for reasons unknown still, Tom O’Brien’s team punted directly to Giovani Bernard.

    The UNC star returned the kick 74 yards, crossing the goal line with 13 seconds to play. Bernard finished with an astounding line: 135 rushing yards and two scores, 95 receiving yards and the 74-yard punt return TD for an all-purpose yardage total of 304. Bernard stole the show from an otherwise ridiculous QB battle in which NC State’s Mike Glennon threw for 467 yards and five touchdowns and Renner threw for 358.

    The victory also snapped a five-game winning streak for the Wolfpack, handing the Heels their first win in the series since 2006.

    Bernard finished that 2012 season as the ACC’s runner-up for player of the year honors, racking up 12 rushing touchdowns, five receiving and two on punt returns. He finished his UNC career with 2,481 rushing yards and 3,596 all-purpose yards. Bernard entered the NFL draft after the 2012 season, and he was selected in the second round — 37th overall — by the Cincinnati Bengals. Bernard had a 10-year NFL career with the Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rushing for more than 3,700 yards and totaling 36 career touchdowns before retiring after the 2022 season. — Hale


    On one sideline was a future first-round NFL draft pick and starting QB for the New England Patriots, Drake Maye. On the other was a fourth-string legacy who’d considered quitting the team a few months earlier. Guess which one became the hero of the 2022 UNC-NC State showdown? Maye never quite found his footing for the Tar Heels against an attacking Wolfpack defense, but Ben Finley — the younger brother of former Pack star Ryan Finley, who’d opened the year behind three other players on the depth chart — was outstanding, throwing for 271 yards and two touchdowns in the 30-27 double OT win that marked the culmination of a ridiculous season of overcome adversity for both the QB and the team.

    Finley got the start against UNC only after Devin Leary and MJ Morris were hurt and Jack Chambers was benched. All three had already recorded a win for the Wolfpack, making Finley the fourth member of the depth chart to add a victory to his résumé that season.

    “I was running around trying to hug everyone,” Finley said after the game.

    “It’s nice to keep the Finleys undefeated here,” NC State coach Dave Doeren said.

    He started NC State’s bowl loss to Maryland a month later before transferring to Cal. He started three games for the Bears, too, and transferred again this season to Akron, where he has thrown for 2,410 yards and 14 touchdowns. — Hale

    Record: Iowa State leads 53-50-4

    Kansas State QB Adam Helm, 1999

    Iowa State gained 332 yards in the first half and led 28-7 at halftime. Bill Snyder had to bench starter Jonathan Beasley after he went 3-for-10 for 24 yards and an interception.

    In their 1999 Big 12 opener, Kansas State’s season threatened to go off the rails. But backup QB Adam Helm steadied the ship; he scored at the end of an 80-yard drive to bring the Wildcats within 28-14, and David Allen’s 94-yard punt return brought them closer. The game was tied when Helm plunged in for a 1-yard score with 2:34 left, and the Wildcats survived. Beasley would find his footing, and K-State would roll to 11-1 and finish sixth in the AP poll. But the entire season might have fallen apart in September if Helm hadn’t commanded the school’s largest-ever second-half comeback.

    Helm’s career ended with just 489 passing yards, but the family lineage continues in Manhattan: His nephew, Beau Palmer, walked onto the team in 2020 and has made two career starts with 28 career tackles for the Wildcats. — Bill Connelly


    His first carry went for 71 yards and a touchdown. His fifth, 77 yards and another score. Late in the third quarter, he burst straight up the middle for 60 more yards and a third score. Abu Sama III has thus far crafted a decent career for himself at Iowa State, rushing over 1,000 career yards with three 100-yard games as part of a stable of backs over two seasons. But in what has to be considered the most aesthetically pleasing Farmageddon matchup ever played — it was a night game in a snow storm — Sama rushed for 276 yards in just 16 rushes, carrying the Cyclones to a 42-35 win.

    You perhaps can’t call it a life-changing moment; he isn’t even ISU’s leading rusher this season. But no matter what happens from here, Sama’s time in Ames will be remembered because of a single night in Manhattan. — Connelly

    Record: Virginia Tech leads 61-38-5

    Virginia DL Eli Hanback, 2019

    Eli Hanback grew up in Ashland, Virginia, as a huge Virginia fan, dreaming about one day playing for the Cavaliers. During his childhood, the rivalry with Virginia Tech was not much of a rivalry: Going back to 1999, the Hokies had won every matchup except one, and the streak continued once Hanback got to Virginia and earned a starting job on the defensive line.

    That is, until 2019.

    The entire season, Hanback said the Virginia motto was, “Beat Tech,” after a heartbreaking overtime loss the previous season. Both teams went into the game 8-3, with veteran quarterbacks on each side leading the way. It went back-and-forth the entirety of the second half. Virginia went up 33-30 with 1:23 to play, but had to defend dual-threat quarterback Hendon Hooker to close out the game. Virginia fans had grown accustomed to expecting the worst, but Hanback ensured there would be a different ending this time around.

    On third-and-21 from the Virginia Tech 7, Mandy Alonso sacked Hendon Hooker, forcing the ball free in the end zone. Hanback saw it and pounced for a game-sealing touchdown. When he got up, he raised the ball triumphantly into the air. Virginia secured a 39-30 win — its first over the Hokies since 2003 — and a spot in the ACC championship game.

    “That streak was hanging over my head forever, and as a player I could finally have an impact on it in my last year, in my last game at Scott Stadium,” said Hanback, who works at Capital One in Virginia.” I don’t think I’d ever in my wildest dreams would’ve imagined doing that.” — Adelson


    Virginia Tech WR Jermaine Holmes, 1995

    The play that will live forever as one of the greatest moments in Virginia Tech history was meant for receiver Jermaine Holmes.

    How else to explain how he ended up with the game-winning score? The Hokies trailed rival Virginia in 1995 with less than a minute left in the game. That is when the most memorable swap in school history happened. Holmes, usually the slot receiver, switched with Cornelius White and went to the outside. White had run several deep routes and needed a break.

    The call came in to quarterback Jim Druckenmiller. He was going to throw it for Holmes.

    “When Jim signaled that play, it was one of those moments where you know you’re about to score a touchdown, and it’s going to be huge,” Holmes said.

    Indeed, the hook-and-go call — which involved a pump fake to make Virginia bite — went to Holmes, streaking down the middle of the field. It landed perfectly into his arms in the end zone — a 32-yard touchdown catch that helped the Hokies win 36-29.

    Virginia Tech fans stormed the field. Yes, they stormed Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, in what turned out to be a program defining win. The Hokies made it to the Sugar Bowl, beginning their stretch of dominance under then-coach Frank Beamer.

    Holmes has his Sugar Bowl jersey and a photo of his game-winning catch hanging up in his home. A moment he calls extraordinary because “it could have very well been Cornelius in that position.”

    “This is one of those moments that will live on forever and I am just proud to be a part of it,” said Holmes, who is now a project manager running clinical trials. “God put me in that position to be able to have that moment, and it’s cool to be able to have conversations about it 29 years later.” — Adelson

  • CFP Anger Index: Who should be most angry in Week 14?

    What’s the value of a win?

    This isn’t a rhetorical question. It’s something the committee should be asking on a weekly basis. We tend to discuss win-loss records in concrete terms, then debate résumés in subjective ones, and that’s where fans, pundits and, especially, the committee run into trouble.

    For example, when a reporter asked Curt Cignetti if his Indiana Hoosiers still belonged in the playoff after a blowout loss to Ohio State, he responded with a mix of befuddlement and indignation. How could a team with a 10-1 record in the Big Ten not be in the playoff?

    To which any critic might rightfully argue that Indiana’s one loss — by 23 to the only SP+ top-30 team on their schedule — said more about the Hoosiers than the 10 wins did.

    On the other hand, there’s Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, who this week suggested it would be an outrage if a Group of 5 champion eclipsed his conference for the final playoff bye (which might actually be the least of his problems). He rattled off his fair share of data points — strength of schedule, margin of victory, advanced metrics — that make a clear-cut case for the Big 12. The only problem? The Big 12 champ might have as many as two more losses than the Group of 5’s representative.

    Or, more succinctly: The Big Ten thinks its teams are best, because they’ve lost fewer games, while the SEC thinks its teams are best, because they’ve played a tougher schedule.

    So, which is it?

    Let’s apply some math.

    If we use the Football Power Index’s pregame win expectation, we can get an approximate “degree of difficulty” on each win.

    Indiana, to Cignetti’s point, might not have beaten great teams, but winning is still hard. The odds, by the FPI, of winning all 10 of the Hoosiers’ victories come out to about 12%.

    Compare that with Texas. The Longhorns have had a particularly soft schedule, too, and like Indiana, they were overmatched in their one serious test (against Georgia). Using those same FPI odds, the chances Texas would’ve won the 10 games it has are actually pretty good — 42.4%, or a little less than a coin flip.

    So by that logic, Indiana’s 10-1 record is far more impressive than Texas’ 10-1 record.

    Of course, those pregame win projections also account for an important variable: team quality. Indiana’s odds were lower because the FPI innately understands that Texas is a better team, in terms of talent, than Indiana.

    So what if we just go by strength of schedule?

    That’s tricky, too. Indiana’s schedule strength entering last week stood at an embarrassing 106th nationally. Then the Hoosiers played Ohio State, and its strength of schedule jumped to No. 51. So did the Hoosiers’ record get any more impressive as a result? Of course not! They won their 10 games against the 106th-best schedule and lost a game against, effectively, the No. 1 toughest schedule of Week 13 (though certainly Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama might quibble with that analysis).

    This is where ESPN’s strength-of-record metric is helpful. It accounts for both opponent strength and the actual outcome. It suggests Texas (at No. 5) is ahead of Indiana (at No. 7). But what does that actually mean? The answer is not much. If we look at the raw numbers on strength of record, Texas’ score is only about 3% better than Indiana’s. The difference is negligible — and that’s before we remember that opponent quality is both subjective and an independent variable. In other words, Texas doesn’t control how good its opponents are. Is it the Longhorns’ fault Michigan, last season’s national champion, isn’t very good in 2024? Is it Texas’ fault that, in a conference with a dozen solid teams, the SEC office handed out a schedule that featured only two genuinely good opponents? Texas is the same team regardless of who it plays. We’d just have a better gauge of how good that team is if it had played a few more quality opponents. Strength of schedule is a measure of certainty not quality.

    Or, perhaps a better example: SMU has wins against Louisville and Pitt and a close loss to BYU. Three weeks ago, BYU and Pitt were undefeated and Louisville was a top-25 team. That’s a strong résumé (not that the committee noticed). But BYU has lost two straight, Pitt has dropped three in a row and Louisville delivered one of the most inexplicably disastrous losses in recent college football history against Stanford. Suddenly SMU — through absolutely no fault of its own — has a much less impressive résumé, long after the games in question were actually played.

    Let’s get back to our central question then: What is a win worth?

    In nearly every other sport the answer is simple. A win is worth a win, or at least a non-loss. But in college football, it’s all debatable, which is why we have a committee.

    The problem, of course, is the committee debates are secret and its explanations are often paradoxical. Rankings often seem less about a genuine appreciation for what a team has done than a speculative assumption about what it might do in a hypothetical future or alternate timeline, and this season, more than any in recent memory, that seems a fool’s errand.

    So here we are. After a weekend of chaos around college football — particularly in the SEC — the committee is throwing ideas against the wall and simply reporting back what stuck.

    Which brings us to this week’s Anger Index.

    1. The Big 12

    Imagine the following scenario: Boise State and Tulane both win out, earning conference championships.

    The Big 12’s champion, however, is three-loss Kansas State, three-loss Colorado or even two-loss Iowa State. All of them are currently ranked behind both Tulane (the presumed AAC champ) and Boise State (the presumed Mountain West champ), which could lead us to this eventuality: Two Group of 5 champs get in, and the Big 12 is shut out completely.

    This would be a genuine catastrophe for the conference, but it’s not a major leap to envision exactly that happening.

    But would it be fair?

    Yormark certainly doesn’t think so.

    “Based on where we sit today, I see no rationale for the Big 12’s champion not getting a first-round bye,” Yormark told Yahoo Sports. “From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, all four of our schools at the top of the standings are ranked ahead of Boise State.”

    Well, sure, but the committee isn’t ranking strength of schedule, and right now, everyone but Arizona State sits behind multiple Group of 5 teams.

    The problem is the committee seems incredibly concerned with the quality of losses, and in that respect, Boise State (one loss to Oregon) and Tulane (losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma) have far more explainable blemishes than Iowa State (losses to Kansas and Texas Tech), Colorado (losses to Nebraska, Kansas and Kansas State) or even Arizona State (losses to Cincinnati and Texas Tech). The great irony is Kansas State has a pretty clear-cut case to be ahead of Tulane — a 34-27 head-to-head win — but the Wildcats’ loss to Houston looks much worse than, ironically, Tulane’s loss to … Kansas State.

    For more context on the committee’s willingness to engage in this circular logic, go back to 2014 when the Big 12 was also left out, despite Baylor and TCU knocking on the door.

    On the other hand, seeing Coach Prime left out in favor of a team from the American might create enough hot takes to power all the holiday lights in America.


    2. Every team with playoff hopes not named Clemson (9-2, No. 12)

    Somehow the Tigers, left for dead after a 33-21 loss to Louisville less than a month ago, are now our first team out.

    Why is that exactly?

    Clemson might have the single thinnest résumé of any team in the top 25 — and worse than a handful of unranked teams, too — when you dig into the numbers.

    Clemson’s best win by SP+ came against Virginia Tech, which is ranked No. 31. The Hokies, 5-6 and on the verge of missing a bowl after a loss to Virginia in Week 14, are hardly an indicator that Clemson is capable of greatness.

    Clemson’s next-best win came against Pitt by four points in a game marred by controversial officiating. That’s the same Pitt currently embroiled in a four-game losing streak. Pitt is the only Power 4 team with a winning record to lose to the Tigers.

    The two teams with a pulse that have played Clemson both won handily — Georgia by 31 in the opener and Louisville by 12 on Nov. 2 in Death Valley.

    So, what exactly is the rationale for ranking Clemson ahead of, say, Arizona State (three wins better than Virginia Tech), BYU (two), Kansas State (three), Alabama (four), Ole Miss (three) or South Carolina (three)? Iowa State, Arizona State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, BYU and Alabama all have better strength-of-record metrics than the Tigers.

    The Gamecocks will at least get a chance to prove the point on the field Saturday in the Palmetto Bowl, and given where the committee has things now, it’s entirely possible that game is a de facto play-in for the playoff.

    Whether Clemson belongs in that advantageous position, however, seems a dubious proposition.

    Of course, if this is all setting the stage for the committee to deviously jump Alabama over an ACC team in the final poll, then we applaud their willingness to play the long game.


    Let’s do a quick blind comparison here.

    Team A: 9-2, 1-1 vs. FPI top 40, losses to teams with a combined record of 18-4 by a combined 8 points

    Team B: 9-2, 0-2 vs. FPI top 40, losses to teams with a combined record of 14-8 by a combined 22 points

    Would it help here if we noted both of these teams are from the Group of 5, but Team A has two wins vs. Power 4 opponents and Team B has none?

    Pretty easy pick, right? Team A has a clear edge. Only Team A is UNLV, which ranks No. 22 and would be at a disadvantage for a playoff bid, even if it wins out.

    Team B is Tulane, which checks in at No. 17.

    Heck, UNLV might even have the best case of anyone for jumping the Big 12 by virtue of wins over Kansas and Houston — two teams that have beaten BYU, Colorado, Kansas State and Iowa State.


    There are 10 teams from Power 4 conferences with 8-3 records after Week 13. Eight of them are ranked. The two that aren’t are both in the ACC, outside the AP Top 25 and with ample reason to be outraged.

    Team A: No. 26 strength of record, best wins vs SP+ Nos. 36 and 52, losses to SP+ Nos. 16, 41 and 55 by a total of 37 points

    Team B: No. 31 strength or record, best wins vs SP+ Nos. 31 and 44, losses to SP+ Nos. 8, 13 and 61 by a total of 33 points

    Pretty darned close, right? Team B, however, has the better wins and the better losses, so the only thing supporting Team A seems to be a moderately better middle of the résumé.

    So, who are they?

    Team B is Duke. Team A is Colorado.

    Syracuse is admittedly a tougher sell because of an ugly loss to Stanford, but the Orange have wins over No. 22 UNLV and a Georgia Tech team that knocked off Miami.

    And yet, neither Duke nor Syracuse is ranked.

    Does it really matter? Neither would sniff the playoff anyway.

    And yet, as Syracuse QB Kyle McCord told ESPN, the recognition is meaningful to a young program with a first-year coach hoping to establish an identity — a story that’s true of Duke, too.

    “You want to get that recognition,” McCord said. “That’s one of our goals is to be ranked by the CFP committee.”

    And it matters, too, for the other teams making a case for the playoff. Miami faces Syracuse this week. It has already defeated Duke. SMU, still criminally underappreciated by the committee, has a win over Duke, too. When “ranked wins” are a metric — fraught as it might be — it matters.


    What could Notre Dame possibly have to quibble with? After all, No. 5 is as good as it gets for the Fighting Irish, who cannot, by rule, earn a first-round bye.

    But here’s the problem: They’re outflanked by three Big Ten teams and narrowly ahead of perhaps the most intimidating team in the country in Georgia. And because the first four spots have to go to conference champions, we could be looking at a final ranking that looks something like this: Oregon, Georgia, ACC champion and Big 12 or Group of 5 champion get the byes, with Ohio State, Texas and Penn State next in the pecking order.

    That leaves Notre Dame poised precariously on the brink of landing a home game for the playoff.

    The odds are still long that the Irish would be pushed beyond the top eight, but stranger things have happened. And it really shouldn’t be a topic for debate. Notre Dame has six wins vs. opponents that are currently 7-4 or better — the most of any team in the country — and is riding a nine-game winning streak in which it outscored the opposition by an average of 33 points.

    Of course, there’s still that messy incident in Week 2 when the Irish fell to Northern Illinois. If those two played 100 more times, it would surprise no one if Notre Dame won 99 of them. But there’s no ignoring what happened, and for as good as the Irish look today, they also have the worst loss of any playoff contender by a country mile.

    It sure would be a shame if that loss kept them from hosting a game in northern Indiana in mid-December.

    Also angry: Iowa State, Kansas State, Curt Cignetti, Greg Sankey, anyone going to the grocery store on Wednesday.

  • NFL Week 13 Power Rankings: Surging Broncos may be Sean Payton’s best coaching job yet; Steelers out of top 5

    Sean Payton has been one of this league’s best coaches for a long time, winning a Super Bowl, leading amazing offenses with precision play-calling and having a great feel for what defenses do against him.

    But he might be doing the best coaching job of his career this season — and that’s saying something.

    Payton has taken the Denver Broncos, a team many picked to be one of the worst in the league, a team starting a rookie quarterback most thought was a reach in the first round, to being the No. 7 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. The Broncos are 7-5 after beating the Las Vegas Raiders, 29-19, on Sunday on the road, the first time they beat the Raiders on the road since 2015.

    The Broncos now play two straight home games against the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts, both winnable games that could get them to 9-5 with three games to go. That would almost certainly get them into the playoffs.

    player headshot

    The Broncos have been riding a top-level defense all season, but it’s the play of rookie quarterback Bo Nix that has elevated this team the past three games. In those games, Nix has eight touchdown passes and no interceptions. Payton, who had Nix as his hand-picked quarterback — even though most said he reached to take him with the 12th overall pick — does a great job of calling plays for Nix to make for easy throws and decisions. 

    But the thing that stands out from the past three weeks is Nix taking and hitting shots into the middle of the field with accuracy. He is certainly playing with more confidence, and the league has taken notice. He’s completely closed the gap in terms of betting odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year over at FanDuel, as it’ll likely be neck-and-neck between he and the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels down the stretch.

    As for the defense, it’s special. It is third in points given up at 16.5 points per game, with only the Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions better. It is third in total defense, sixth in rush defense and ninth against the pass. It gives up a paltry 3.8 yards per rush, and it’s been 3.1 yards per rush over the past three games.

    That run defense leads to second- and third-and-long situations, which leads to sacks. The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks with 44 as coordinator Vance Joseph turns his blitz-heavy group loose to menace quarterbacks. It may not be a group of stars on that side of the ball — aside from corner Patrick Surtain II – but they get after it. They play hard and tough and fast, and Joseph knows how to call a defense.

    Denver, which is up to 10th in my latest Power Rankings, hasn’t exactly beat up on a brutal schedule. It has one victory over a team with a winning record and that is 6-5 Atlanta, who it beat up two weeks ago at home. But if the Broncos beat the remaining teams on their schedule who don’t have a winning record, they will be a playoff team. So no apologies needed, and they did go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in Kansas City three weeks ago, only to have a last-second field goal blocked to lose the game.

    With a dominant defense, solid running attack and Nix hitting the timely passes when needed, the Broncos will be a playoff team. The question will be whether it can be more. Defense does win in the playoffs and it travels well. And then there’s always the Payton factor. He can flat out coach, and he’s proving it as well as ever with this team. 

    Biggest Movers

    Rk

    Teams

     

    Chg

    Rcrd


    1


    Lions

    They are a brutish, power team that can knock you off the ball and yet still hit shots off of that. The defense played well against the Colts. 10-1-0

    2


    Bills

    They went into their bye having scored 30 points or more in five straight games. This is one team that has to hope the bye didn’t slow them down. 9-2-0

    3


    Chiefs

    They won another close game last week, which has been a season-long trend. Playing close against the Panthers is not a good look. 10-1-0

    4


    Eagles

    Saquon Barkley is keying their offense right now, and the offensive line is mauling people. The defense has really come on over the past five games. 1 9-2-0

    5


    Vikings

    They went unbeaten in their three-game road trip, which is tough to do. They were all close, but that matters little in the record. 1 9-2-0

    6


    Ravens

    They got back to playing Ravens football on the road to beat the Chargers. They were physical and got Derrick Henry going again. 1 8-4-0

    7


    Packers

    They dominated the undermanned 49ers, but that’s what they had to do. The running game clicked with Josh Jacobs, and the defense came up big. 1 8-3-0

    8


    Chargers

    The top-ranked defense was exposed some in the loss to the Ravens. Now they have a tough road trip to face Atlanta, which is coming off a bye. 1 7-4-0

    9


    Steelers

    That was a bad loss on the road at Cleveland for a team pushing for the top seed in the conference. They face a tough division game at Cincinnati this week. 5 8-3-0

    10


    Broncos

    The schedule is favorable and they have a great defense, a great coach and a rookie quarterback who is growing every week. The playoffs are real. 2 7-5-0

    11


    Seahawks

    The defense has improved greatly since the bye. It seems they are getting a grasp of what coach Mike Macdonald wants them to do. They lead the division as we head down the stretch. 3 6-5-0

    12


    Cardinals

    They must have left their offense somewhere during the bye. They did nothing in the loss to the Seahawks. Kyler Murray has to be better. 2 6-5-0

    13


    Commanders

    Losing at home to the Cowboys is a bad look. They can’t afford many more losses or the playoffs will be gone. 2 7-5-0

    14


    Texans

    This team just isn’t right. Losing at home to the Titans won’t badly hurt their playoff chances in a bad division, but they need to get it going. C.J. Stroud looks off. 1 7-5-0

    15


    Dolphins

    Tua Tagovailoa has been outstanding since coming back. Now they have to end the narrative that they can’t beat teams in the cold when they go to Green Bay Thanksgiving night. 6 5-6-0

    16


    Buccaneers

    They dominated the Giants, and with a soft schedule the rest of the way, they can make a run. Getting healthy on defense is big for this group. 3 5-6-0

    17


    Falcons

    They come out of their bye off two straight losses with a tough game at home against the Chargers. They have to get the offense back on track. 1 6-5-0

    18


    49ers

    With so many injuries, this team hardly resembles the team that went to the Super Bowl last year. If Brock Purdy is out this week, their season might be over. 3 5-6-0

    19


    Colts

    Anthony Richardson is improved, but they still aren’t scoring enough points. They had a chance to make the division close with the Texans losing, but they didn’t play well against the Lions. 2 5-7-0

    20


    Rams

    They were mauled physically by the Eagles. So much for that late-season push they were expecting. The good news is the division is still tight. 2 5-6-0

    21


    Bengals

    They come out of their bye knowing they likely have to run the table to make the playoffs. It starts with a rough one against the Steelers. 1 4-7-0

    22


    Bears

    Caleb Williams was good in the loss to the Vikings, bringing them back late to get to overtime. That type of situation matters for the future. 4-7-0

    23


    Saints

    Two straight victories before the bye has them a magical run away from playoff possibility. It’s not likely, but you never know. 1 4-7-0

    24


    Cowboys

    Give them credit for showing up and winning at Washington when things looked bleak. If they beat the Giants this week, they are 5-7. Wow. 2 4-7-0

    25


    Browns

    Jameis Winston has brought this team some life. That was much needed. Too bad it happened too late. 2 3-8-0

    26


    Titans

    Will Levis is making progress — even if people won’t admit it. He is also taking a beating with 20 sacks in the past three games. 3 3-8-0

    27


    Patriots

    Drake Maye had his rookie game against the Dolphins, which can be expected. The defense did nothing to stop the Miami passing game, either. 4 3-9-0

    28


    Jets

    This season is toast. The coach and general manager are gone, but what happens to Aaron Rodgers? 3 3-8-0

    29


    Panthers

    Progress for Bryce Young is a good thing. And he is making it. Credit to him for improving. 1 3-8-0

    30


    Giants

    So much for Tommy DeVito adding life to this team. They are so bad right now. 2-9-0

    31


    Raiders

    They just aren’t good enough right now, which means changes are coming after the season. Just stink, baby. 2-9-0

    32


    Jaguars

    Coming off the bye, there were no firings. That’s not surprising the way ownership operates, but it doesn’t mean it’s right. 2-9-0

  • College Football Power Rankings: How did the top 25 look in Week 13?

    What happened in Week 13? We are now down to one undefeated FBS team following No. 5 Indiana’s loss to No. 2 Ohio State and No. 19 Army’s loss to No. 6 Notre Dame. On top of that, four ranked teams fell to their unranked opponents on Saturday.

    With No. 16 Colorado’s loss to Kansas and No. 14 BYU falling to No. 21 Arizona State, the Big 12 has a four-way tie at the top of the standings. What does each team have to do next week to reach the conference title game?

    After their defense dominated the Hoosiers at Ohio Stadium, the Buckeyes have one more conference matchup left. What do they need to do to meet Oregon in the Big Ten title game?

    How did Saturday’s action affect our Power Rankings?

    Here’s the latest top 25 from our college football experts, who provide their insight on each team following Week 13.

    Previous ranking: 1

    Oregon’s second bye week of the year is as good a time as any to recognize not just how the Ducks have gotten to 11-0, but how far the offensive line specifically has come since the first few weeks of the season. In its first two games, Oregon’s offensive line gave up seven sacks. Over the past nine games, it has kept quarterback Dillon Gabriel upright, allowing only five sacks total. The improvement began in the Ducks’ third game against UCLA, when they shifted Iapani Laloulu to starting center. Lalolulu, a sophomore from Hawaii, has anchored the unit. Per Pro Football Focus, Laloulu has not allowed a sack in 270 pass blocking snaps.

    The move and subsequent improvement has both limited the number of sacks and quarterback pressures, but beyond that, it has facilitated the Ducks’ running game. In the first two games of the season, they averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry. Since then, they have averaged over 5 and have 20 rushing touchdowns total. It has all added up to one of the most effective offenses in the country, an undefeated season so far and a potent recipe as Oregon heads toward a conference championship and playoff run. — Paolo Uggetti


    Previous ranking: 2

    The Buckeyes (10-1) have upped their blitz rate since their 32-31 loss to Oregon on Oct. 12. They didn’t get a single sack against Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who threw for 341 yards while averaging a whopping 9.6 yards per dropback. Since then, they have overwhelmed opposing quarterbacks. During Saturday’s resounding 38-15 win over Indiana, Ohio State sacked quarterback Kurtis Rourke five times. Off the blitz, linebacker Cody Simon especially wreaked havoc, finishing with 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble. With little time to throw, most notably in obvious passing situations, Rourke completed just 8 of his 18 attempts for 68 yards. If the Buckeyes take care of Michigan, they’ll get a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten championship game. There, they’ll be sure to unleash the blitz in a way they didn’t in Eugene. — Jake Trotter


    Previous ranking: 3

    The Longhorns (10-1) have consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time since 2008-09, accomplished in both the Big 12 and the SEC. But this team hasn’t been all flash. The Longhorns have been able to adapt to whatever form necessary to keep winning, aside from their loss to Georgia this year. On Saturday, Quintrevion Wisner had a career-high 158 yards rushing, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. But the biggest difference this season has been the pass defense. Last year, Texas allowed 254.4 yards per game through the air, and this year, they have cut that to just 143.5 per game, ranking No. 1 in the nation.

    The pass rush has helped quite a bit. Against Kentucky, the Longhorns pressured Brock Vandagriff and Cutter Boley on 14 of their 31 dropbacks. The Longhorns have a big one next week, traveling to College Station to renew their rivalry with Texas A&M (whom they haven’t played since 2011), with a spot in the SEC championship game for the winner. — Dave Wilson


    Previous ranking: 9

    The Irish won their ninth straight game Saturday night with a 49-14 blowout of previously unbeaten Army at Yankee Stadium. Since that forgettable 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, Notre Dame (10-1) has been better at a little bit of everything and looks to be a lock for the playoff if it can finish out the regular season with a win over USC. The Irish have improved across the board on defense after giving up nearly 400 yards to Northern Illinois, and they clamped down on Army’s running game.

    The Black Knights came into the game leading the country in rushing (334.9 yards per game), but Bryson Daily could never get on track. The Irish haven’t played what you would call a killer schedule since the loss in Week 2 but have won every game but one by double digits. Running back Jeremiyah Love continues to be a key weapon for the Irish. He scored two more rushing touchdowns, including a 68-yarder, and has 14 on the season. — Chris Low


    Previous ranking: 5

    Tyler Warren had a touchdown catch in Penn State’s (10-1) season-opening win at West Virginia, but the tight end extraordinaire wasn’t the focal point of the Nittany Lions’ offense right away. He had 50 receiving yards or fewer in four of the team’s first five games before his record-setting performance Oct. 12 at USC, when he set career highs for receptions (17) and receiving yards (224). Since then, Warren has been the centerpiece of Penn State’s offense. He has seven or more receptions in four of Penn State’s past five games, while taking on a bigger role in the run game as well.

    In Penn State’s 26-25 win over Minnesota on Saturday, Warren led the team with eight receptions for 102 yards, including an 11-yard reception on fourth-and-1 that allowed the Nittany Lions to run out the clock and keep their CFP hopes firmly intact. He continues to provide quarterback Drew Allar with a reliable option and offset PSU’s limitations at wide receiver. Warren and Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. are the top two candidates for the Mackey Award (given to the top tight end in the nation). — Adam Rittenberg


    Previous ranking: 8

    The Bulldogs (9-2) might have been a popular pick to reach the SEC championship game before the season, but their route in getting back to Atlanta has been far more difficult than it was the past few seasons. Injuries along the offensive line and at tailback resulted in a mediocre running game, putting more pressure on quarterback Carson Beck. He had 12 interceptions in a six-game stretch and played poorly in the first half of a loss at Alabama and another loss at Ole Miss. Beck has played efficiently and avoided big mistakes in Georgia’s past two victories over Tennessee and UMass.

    After All-America guard Tate Ratledge returned, the offensive line has provided enough protection (one sack in the past two games), and the Bulldogs are running the ball again. Georgia’s tight ends have also stepped up, and freshman tailback Nate Frazier looks like a star. If Georgia beats Georgia Tech at home Friday night, it should be back in the CFP, regardless of what happens against the Texas-Texas A&M winner in the SEC championship game. — Mark Schlabach


    Previous ranking: 10

    Cam Ward has dazzled for the majority of the season, starting with the opener against Florida. But where Miami (10-1) has improved the most is building depth in its running back room, and that showed in a 42-14 win over Wake Forest. The Hurricanes added freshman Jordan Lyle to the mix with Damien Martinez and Mark Fletcher Jr. Lyle had seven carries for 115 yards and a score, while Martinez added 63 yards and Fletcher 55. Miami rushed for 228 yards and a whopping 7.1 yards per carry. Ward added 280 yards passing, showing the type of balance Miami wants but has not achieved consistently. Up next is a Syracuse team that has struggled to stop the run this season. A win clinches a spot for the Hurricanes in the ACC championship game. — Andrea Adelson


    Previous ranking: 13

    Kevin Jennings and the offense were dominant again, and SMU’s emphatic win at Virginia offered the latest statement that the Mustangs aren’t just ACC upstarts, but the genuine favorite in the conference and a legitimate playoff team. SMU (10-1) is one of just eight remaining undefeated or one-loss teams in the Power 4, and since Jennings took over as the starting QB, the Mustangs are 8-0 and averaging 41 points per game. — David Hale


    Previous ranking: 12

    While SEC (and CFP) rivals Ole Miss and Alabama were suffering upset losses, Tennessee benefited by simply handling its business against UTEP in a 56-0 win. Nico Iamaleava overcame a slow start — three punts in the first three drives — to complete 17 of 23 passes for 209 yards and four touchdowns, including Bru McCoy’s first two touchdown catches of the season. Iamaleava was nearly perfect as the Volunteers unleashed a 28-0 second quarter to salt the game away. Tennessee’s offense hasn’t averaged over 5.8 yards per play in an SEC game all season but cruised along at 6.8 against the outmanned Miners, and after finding themselves on the outside looking in with this week’s CFP rankings, the Vols should be comfortably in the field of 12 when the rankings are updated Tuesday. — Connelly


    Previous ranking: 4

    Even though Indiana got routed by Ohio State 38-15 on Saturday, the Hoosiers have continued to impress with their red zone defense. In the first half at Ohio Stadium, Indiana allowed just one touchdown on three Ohio State possessions in the red zone. The Hoosiers stuffed Quinshon Judkins on fourth-and-1 from the Indiana 2-yard line.

    Later, D’Angelo Ponds broke up a pass, which landed in the arms of Jailin Walker for an interception at the Hoosiers’ 11, thwarting another Ohio State scoring opportunity. Those plays kept Indiana in the game through halftime, even though its offense gained just 53 yards, the Hoosiers’ lowest first-half total in a decade. In Indiana’s previous game, it allowed Michigan to score just one touchdown on three red zone chances. The Hoosiers are now in the top half of the Big Ten in red zone defensive efficiency. — Trotter


    Previous ranking: 11

    For all of the attention Ashton Jeanty and Boise State’s offense gets, there isn’t much discussed about the Broncos’ defense. When the season began, there wasn’t much to praise on that side of the ball. Opponents scored over 30 points in three of the first five games, and Boise State allowed over 400 yards three times. Over the past five games, however, the unit has shown slight yet important improvements. No team has scored more than 24 points on the Broncos (10-1), and they’ve held teams under 350 yards three separate times. Spencer Danielson’s team has shown time and time again that it can win shootouts. All they need is for the defense to be serviceable and do enough to allow their offense to win games. In the back half of the season, the Broncos have done just that. — Uggetti


    Previous ranking: 20

    The Sun Devils (9-2) are one of the hottest teams in the country, and a trip to the Big 12 title game (and even the CFP) is now within reach following their dramatic 28-23 win over BYU. They’ve won four in a row ever since Sam Leavitt came back from his rib injury. We’re watching the redshirt freshman blossom into one of the best young QBs in the FBS on a weekly basis. Leavitt has the second-best QBR in the Big 12 over the past month (83.8) (behind only Shedeur Sanders) and is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt with a 10-1 TD-INT ratio. He’s taking care of the football and playing his best at the best possible time. — Max Olson


    Previous ranking: 19

    The Tigers picked a good week to play an FCS team. While chaos ruled the day around them, Clemson took care of business with a 51-14 win over The Citadel behind three touchdown passes by Cade Klubnik. The Tigers are now 9-2, marking their 14th straight season of nine wins or more. More importantly, the losses around them in the top 25 leave the door wide open for a playoff berth. A win next week against South Carolina would offer a signature victory over the SEC — home of the majority of the teams Clemson would be judged against. A Miami loss next week would also push the Tigers into the ACC title game, which could be either a blessing or a curse at this point. — Hale


    Previous ranking: 6

    It’s difficult to pull many positives after the Crimson Tide’s crushing stumble at Oklahoma in Week 13, but a once-vulnerable Alabama secondary that Georgia tore up for 439 passing yards on Sept. 28 has steadily improved over the course of the season. The Sooners’ success on the ground — and the overall state of their passing game — meant there wasn’t much work for the Crimson Tide defensive backs in Saturday’s 24-3 defeat.

    While the secondary remains the weak link in Alabama’s defense, the unit anchored by Malachi Moore and Domani Jackson was strong enough to keep a lid on LSU’s passing attack on Nov. 9, and the Crimson Tide (8-3) entered the weekend ranked 18th among FBS defenses in pass defense (181.2 yards per game) after holding four of their past five opponents below 200 passing yards. — Eli Lederman


    Previous ranking: 7

    All Ole Miss had to do was beat Florida and Mississippi State, and Lane Kiffin’s Rebels would have likely secured their first College Football Playoff bid. Instead, they became the second straight ranked team to fall in the Swamp, suffering a 24-17 defeat. Jaxson Dart threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns, but he lost the plot late, throwing two bad interceptions; his 22-yard scoring strike to Cayden Lee with 9:05 left in the second quarter turned out to be the Rebels’ last touchdown of the day. Ole Miss (8-3) scored just three points in its last eight drives. There was enough chaos elsewhere that the Rebels’ playoff hopes aren’t completely dusted, but they’re going to need some more chaos over Rivalry Week to have a chance. — Bill Connelly


    Previous ranking: 18

    With the CFP bubble getting a lot weirder, and a couple of key conference mates joining the pile of three-loss teams on Saturday, South Carolina, 18th in the CFP rankings, got a breather with a 56-12 win over Wofford. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers overcame an early interception to go 23-for-27 for 307 yards and three touchdowns, and he added 53 rushing yards and another score. Dalevon Campbell caught five passes for 120 yards, and 12 different receivers caught at least one pass. The Gamecocks (8-3) gained 608 yards with 34 first downs, and while this was obviously an FCS opponent, the improvement of South Carolina’s offense has been a consistent storyline over the second half of the season. Even with the SEC’s Saturday upsets, they might not have a particularly realistic path toward the CFP, but their hopes aren’t completely dead yet, either. — Connelly


    Previous ranking: 22

    The Cyclones (9-2) didn’t crack 90 rushing yards in either of their first two games this fall and have emerged as an effective complement to the Big 12’s fifth-ranked passing attack. Sophomore rusher Carson Hansen upped his touchdown tally this fall to 11 with another pair of scores at Utah on Saturday, including his go-ahead, 3-yard touchdown with 1:31 remaining in a 31-28 road win that got dicey late for the Cyclones. Iowa State’s run game remains middle of the pack in the Big 12, but the Cyclones leaned on the program’s ground attack heavily in conference wins over Baylor (265 rushing yards) and UCF (256), and Hansen has emerged as a red zone weapon with seven of his 11 touchdowns coming from inside the 5-yard line. — Lederman


    Previous ranking: 21

    The Green Wave offensive line allowed eight sacks across a pair of September losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma. Since then, Tulane quarterbacks have been sacked just six times during the eight-game winning streak that vaulted the Green Wave (9-2) to No. 20 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings coming off of an idle weekend. Tulane is buoyed by one of the Group of 5’s rising stars in freshman quarterback Darian Mensah and the AAC’s leading rusher in Makhi Hughes. And both are succeeding this fall with the help of an offensive line that enters the final weekend of the regular season ranked 25th in sacks allowed while powering the nation’s 10th-ranked rushing attack. — Lederman


    Previous ranking: 14

    The Cougars (9-2) played a dangerous game for weeks and their luck has caught up with them having now suffered back-to-back losses with a 28-23 loss at Arizona State on Saturday. The defeat leaves BYU as one of four two-loss teams in the Big 12 and it no longer controls its destiny, as it would not reach the title game if both ASU and Iowa State win next week. After falling behind 21-0 to ASU, the Cougars played much better, but their Hail Mary fell two yards shy of the end zone, which could be the difference between a second-tier bowl game and a College Football Playoff appearance. — Kyle Bonagura


    Previous ranking: 15

    The Aggies (8-3) lost a heartbreaker on the road at Auburn, with the first drop of Amari Daniels’ season coming on the last play of the game, as the ball bounced off his hands in overtime in the end zone. It was improbable in many other ways: It marked Auburn’s first win in 15 tries against an AP-ranked team and the first overtime loss by the Aggies after winning seven straight.

    The Aggies found some rhythm in their passing game (Marcel Reed was 22-of-35 for 297 yards and a career-high three TDs, adding 66 rushing yards), but the Aggies’ defense imploded, giving up 43 points to a Tigers team that hadn’t scored more than 24 in SEC play this season. The loss is a blow to hopes the Aggies had of reaching the College Football Playoff, but Alabama’s loss means the Aggies can still reach the SEC championship game with a win over Texas next weekend, leaving the door cracked for them to play their way back in. — Wilson


    Previous ranking: 24

    The Rebels (9-2) can wrap up a 10-win regular season with a win against Nevada next week and would qualify for the Mountain West title game against Boise State in the process. If UNLV loses to Nevada and CSU wins, then it would go to a computer tiebreaker. Beyond the conference title, the Rebels are still in play for the playoff. If they win the Mountain West and finish ranked ahead of the AAC champion in the final CFP rankings, then the Broncos would be in. The early-season QB drama seems so long ago now as UNLV is on pace to finish with one of its best seasons in school history. — Bonagura


    Previous ranking: 16

    It was Army’s first loss of the season and a lopsided one, as Notre Dame outmanned the Black Knights 49-14 on Saturday in Yankee Stadium. Afterward, Army coach Jeff Monken said it would be unfair to judge his team on that one game and he was proud of the way his team had continued to progress in all areas. Army had one turnover against Notre Dame but has been terrific at taking care of the ball this season.

    The defense couldn’t stop Notre Dame, but the goal-line stand in the first half was indicative of the way Army has fought on defense this season. The Black Knights (9-1) still have a lot to play for. They face UTSA on Saturday and then Tulane the following weekend in the AAC championship game and of course rival Navy in the finale. — Low


    Previous ranking: 25

    The offense started with a pair of three-and-outs, but a 28-7 run resulted in a comfortable 39-20 win for Missouri at Mississippi State. It was the Tigers’ first win over the Bulldogs in three tries since joining the SEC in 2012, and it moved them to 8-3 for the season. Brady Cook completed 15 of 20 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown, and after gaining under 300 yards for two straight games while Cook was battling injury, the offense followed up on last week’s 381-yard effort by gaining 472 against MSU. The difference? Big plays. Cook completed five passes of 28 yards or more, and to four different receivers. The Tigers are still out of the playoff picture, but they have a chance to finish 9-3 with a Battle Line Rivalry win over Arkansas on Saturday. — Connelly


    Previous ranking: NR

    Coach Bret Bielema’s teams always have been known for running the ball, but Illinois (8-3) showed other strengths for much of the season before returning to its roots down the stretch. The Illini ran for 182 yards and three touchdowns in Saturday’s 38-31 road win against Rutgers, marking their second straight game with three rushing scores and third in the past six contests. Other than the loss to Penn State, when Illinois finished with 34 net rushing yards, the Illini have averaged 158.3 rushing yards in their other seven Big Ten games. Quarterback Luke Altmyer and running backs Josh McCray and Aidan Laughery all found the end zone at Rutgers, as Illinois averaged 5.1 yards per carry. The Illini aren’t the elite run outfit that Bielema frequently had at Wisconsin, but they provide enough on the ground to balance out a passing attack led by wideout Pat Bryant, who had 197 receiving yards and the game-winning touchdown with four seconds to play. — Rittenberg


    Previous ranking: 17

    The Buffaloes’ defense showed so much progress under new defensive coordinator Robert Livingston throughout this season, but they had no answers for stopping Devin Neal and Kansas in their 37-21 loss in Kansas City. Colorado (8-3) had held every opponent on its schedule under 200 rushing yards — and gave up just 31 yards vs. Utah last week — until the resurgent Jayhawks burned them for 331 yards on 57 carries, with Neal surpassing 200 all by himself. Deion Sanders believes it was an uncharacteristic performance for his defense in every way. They can prove it was a fluke by slowing down Ollie Gordon II and the Oklahoma State Cowboys in their regular-season finale on Friday. — Olson

  • NFL Week 12 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

    The Week 12 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

    Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

    Let’s get into the full Week 12 slate, including quarterback Tommy Devito’s first start of the season against the Bucs and the Cardinals facing the Seahawks in a key NFC West matchup. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Ravens and the Chargers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

    Jump to a matchup:
    MIN-CHI | DET-IND | NE-MIA
    TB-NYG | DAL-WSH | KC-CAR
    TEN-HOU | DEN-LV | SF-GB
    ARI-SEA | PHI-LAR | BAL-LAC

    Thursday: CLE 24, PIT 19
    Byes: ATL, BUF, CIN, NO, NYJ, JAX

    1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: MIN -3.5 (39.5 O/U)

    Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings are 8-4 on grass surfaces under coach Kevin O’Connell since the start of the 2022 season, including 2-0 at Soldier Field. That’s a decided departure from the franchise’s history after it moved indoors to the Metrodome in 1982 and later U.S. Bank Stadium in 2016. During those four decades, the team had a .402 winning percentage on grass and .586 on artificial surfaces. — Kevin Seifert

    Bears storyline to watch: The Bears are in the midst of a four-game losing streak with the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. After switching offensive coordinators from Shane Waldron to Thomas Brown last week, Chicago notched its highest point total since Week 6 in a 20-19 loss to Green Bay. The Bears are averaging 11.5 points per game during this losing streak, which is the fewest points per game in the NFL in that span (since Week 8). Coach Matt Eberflus’ 2-11 record against NFC North opponents is the worst in the league since he was hired in 2022. — Courtney Cronin

    Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has had multiple turnovers in four games this season. Minnesota is undefeated in those contests.

    Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will throw at least two interceptions. He played better last week, but I certainly don’t fancy his chances against the unorthodox and very successful Vikings defense. — Walder

    Injuries: Vikings | Bears

    Fantasy X factor: Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze. The rest of the season seems bright for Odunze. In Week 11, he saw seven-plus targets for the third time this season. He also led the Bears in targets ahead of DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Now, he faces a Vikings defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Vikings have won and covered four straight meetings in Chicago. The past five meetings in Chicago all went under the total. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Vikings 28, Bears 25
    Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Bears 14
    Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Bears 16
    FPI prediction: MIN, 57.0% (by an average of 3.1 points)

    Matchup must-reads: How legit are the 8-2 Vikings? You might be surprised … How will OC change affect Bears QB Williams? … Bears’ Matt Eberflus defends decision to run clock before kick


    1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -7 (49.5 O/U)

    Lions storyline to watch: Despite being the favorites to win this week, the Lions aren’t taking this game against the Colts lightly. Detroit is riding an eight-game winning streak and is the NFL’s lone team with a perfect road record (5-0), but coach Dan Campbell isn’t allowing his squad to buy into the hype. “We’re not the underdogs, but we have certain standards of the way we approach things, the way that we prepare for games, and as long as we do that, you will continue to be a tough team to beat, and that’s important,” Campbell said Monday. — Eric Woodyard

    Colts storyline to watch: One strategy for beating a team with a high-powered offense like the Lions is to win the time-of-possession battle, thereby limiting the opponent’s possessions. But the Colts haven’t proven they can do this. The Colts rank 31st in time of possession at 26:40 per game. That has been detrimental for their defense because the unit has played too many snaps. Indianapolis is second in the league in defensive snaps, averaging 66.9 per game. — Stephen Holder

    Stat to know: The Lions have four games this season with more touchdowns than incompletions. That’s the most such games in a season by any team since 1933.

    Bold prediction: The two teams will have more combined play-action snaps than any game this season (current high is 32). The Lions and Colts rank first and third in play-action rate, respectively. — Walder

    Injuries: Lions | Colts

    Fantasy X factor: Colts wide receiver Josh Downs. He had a standout performance in Week 11, catching all five of his targets from quarterback Anthony Richardson for 19.4 fantasy points. Downs now faces a Lions secondary that’s struggling, allowing the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. With that in mind, Downs could be in for another huge performance. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Colts have not closed as seven-point home underdogs since 2017 (plus-11 versus the Steelers). Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Lions 40, Colts 24
    Moody’s pick: Lions 37, Colts 20
    Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Colts 21
    FPI prediction: DET, 73.4% (by an average of 9.5 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Goff: Lions striving for ‘perfection’ on offense … QB Richardson’s running is key for Colts … Lions lose LB Anzalone for 6-8 weeks … Paye’s heroics keep Colts in the running in AFC South

    play

    0:51

    Can David Montgomery maintain his fantasy production?

    Daniel Dopp examines Lions RB David Montgomery’s big performance in Week 11 and explains why he’ll continue to produce for fantasy managers.


    1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7.5 (46.5 O/U)

    Patriots storyline to watch: The Patriots’ defense has forced only one turnover in its past five games. New England’s minus-6 turnover differential is tied for 26th in the NFL, and finding a way to disrupt quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the rhythm of the Dolphins’ passing game will be key. The Dolphins (minus-2 on the season) are coming off a turnover-free game in a win over the Raiders. — Mike Reiss

    Dolphins storyline to watch: Sunday’s matchup will feature two of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL over the past month. Since Week 6, Patriots signal-caller Drake Maye owns the lowest off-target throw percentage in the league at 9.2%; right behind him is Tagovailoa at 9.4%. Both players are also completing passes at a higher rate than expected, as both Tagovailoa (4.9%) and Maye (3%) rank in the top 10 in completion percentage over expectation. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

    Stat to know: The Dolphins have a 14.6% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. Those chances increase to 18.9% with a win and drop to 5.9% with a loss.

    Bold prediction: Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill will catch a pass of at least 30 air yards. The Dolphins face more two-high coverage than any other team, presumably in part to stop Hill. But the Patriots run two-high coverage only 39% of the time, which is below league average. — Walder

    Injuries: Patriots | Dolphins

    Fantasy X factor: Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. He has been on a roll with 20-plus touches in three of his past four games, topping 20 fantasy points in two of them. This week, he faces a Dolphins defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. Miami’s defensive front ranks 24th in run stop win rate (29.5%). Stevenson’s volume and this matchup make him a strong play. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Patriots won the game outright in their past two appearances as at least six-point underdogs (Weeks 8 and 10 versus the Jets and at the Bears, respectively). Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Patriots 22, Dolphins 20
    Moody’s pick: Dolphins 28, Patriots 21
    Walder’s pick: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20
    FPI prediction: MIA, 68.0% (by an average of 6.8 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Through six starts, Pats QB Maye continues to impress … How Miami’s offense transitioned from explosive to consistent … Hill: Wrist surgery ‘brought up’ but I’m playing through it


    1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TB -6 (41.5 O/U)

    Buccaneers storyline to watch: Bucs center Graham Barton couldn’t have put it any better: “The playoffs for us really start now.” Coming off their bye week at 4-6, having lost four straight, the Bucs are in a similar predicament as they were last season. They were able to win five out of their final six games. Barring any setbacks, wide receiver Mike Evans and cornerback Jamel Dean should return, and that should give them a boost, while the statuses of Tristan Wirfs (MCL sprain) and Zyon McCollum (hamstring) are up in the air. — Jenna Laine

    Giants storyline to watch: Tommy DeVito is the Giants’ new starting quarterback in place of Daniel Jones. DeVito will be trying to rediscover the magic from last season, when he won three straight games as an undrafted free agent. He threw eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions as a rookie. But DeVito also finished with a total QBR of 26.9 as a starter, which was the worst of any qualifying quarterback from Weeks 10 to 16. He’ll have his work cut out for him after not having any reps with the first-team offense this summer and season. — Jordan Raanan

    Stat to know: The Buccaneers are one of three teams in the Super Bowl era to average at least 27.9 points and be under .500. The other two teams (2016 Saints and 2016 Chargers) didn’t make the playoffs.

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    1:17

    Rex Ryan: Benching Daniel Jones was the right decision

    Rex Ryan, Tedy Bruschi and Mike Greenberg discuss the New York Giants’ decision to bench quarterback Daniel Jones for Tommy DeVito.

    Bold prediction: Buccaneers edge rusher Yaya Diaby will record a sack. He should get some pass rushes against Evan Neal, the 2022 first-round pick who has struggled to see the field this season. DeVito recorded a 15.6% sack rate last season. — Walder

    Injuries: Buccaneers | Giants

    Fantasy X factor: Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. He could be key for the Giants with DeVito now under center. Since taking over as the lead back in Week 5, Tracy has scored 14-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games. Facing a Buccaneers defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs, Tracy is set up for another strong performance. Expect New York to lean on him heavily. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: DeVito is 3-3 outright in his career despite being at least a 4.5-point underdog in each game. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Giants 14
    Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Giants 17
    Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 26, Giants 10
    FPI prediction: TB, 68.9% (by an average of 7.6 points)

    Matchup must-reads: With easiest remaining schedule, can Bucs make a playoff push? … New Giants starter DeVito trying to avoid ‘fun and games’ … Is Bucs WR Evans’ 1,000-yard streak in jeopardy? … Giants bench QB Jones — what now?


    1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: WSH -10 (45.5 O/U)

    Cowboys storyline to watch: At 3-7, the Cowboys are looking to avoid their first six-game losing streak since 2015, when they finished 4-12. To do so, they will have to beat their former defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, and several former teammates (Tyler Biadasz, Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr. among them) who joined the Commanders in the offseason. The Cowboys have beaten Washington in five of the past six meetings but bring a different team that will be without at least four opening-day starters because of injuries, though Pro Bowl cornerback DaRon Bland (foot) is expected to make his season debut. — Todd Archer

    Commanders storyline to watch: The Commanders need to get their run game untracked after two lackluster showings against stout run defenses in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. If they do so, it unlocks their offense. In Washington’s seven wins, it has averaged 5.2 yards per carry, but in the four losses it’s 3.5. It’s not just about Brian Robinson Jr., who averages 4.7 yards per rush in wins, it’s also about the quarterback runs. In the seven wins, Jayden Daniels has rushed for 5.3 yards per carry. The good news for Washington: Dallas ranks 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.7). — John Keim

    Stat to know: Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb has 106 targets this season, which is tied with Garrett Wilson for most in the NFL. But he has had only one game with 100-plus receiving yards after eight such games in 2023.

    Bold prediction: The Commanders — including their running backs and Daniels — will combine to rush for 200 yards in a win over the Cowboys. Washington ranks first in run block win rate (74.7%), and the Cowboys rank 30th in run stop win rate (26.9%). — Walder

    Injuries: Cowboys | Commanders

    Fantasy X factor: Robinson. He logged 17 touches and 14.2 fantasy points against the Eagles in Week 11. Just last week, Dallas allowed the Texans’ Joe Mixon to go off for 35.3 fantasy points. Robinson is in a great spot to deliver for fantasy managers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their past five games. It’s their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight straight). Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Commanders 40, Cowboys 17
    Moody’s pick: Commanders 34, Cowboys 16
    Walder’s pick: Commanders 37, Cowboys 13
    FPI prediction: WSH, 78.3% (by an average of 11.4 points)

    Matchup must-reads: The Cowboys’ tough transition from Quinn to Zimmer as DC … What’s happened to the Commanders’ offense? … How Dan Quinn reinvented himself and has Commanders contending


    1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: KC -10.5 (45.5 O/U)

    Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs have played excellent run defense all season and are third in yards allowed per carry (3.6) and per game (85.3). But they get a difficult test against the Panthers’ Chuba Hubbard, who has three 100-yard games and a healthy 5.1 yard-per carry average this season. Can the Panthers shorten the game by successfully running on the Chiefs? — Adam Teicher

    Panthers storyline to watch: The Panthers are getting healthy defensively, particularly with the addition of outside linebacker D.J. Wonnum, who adds a new dimension to their much-needed pass rush. A strong running game has kept Carolina close enough to win its past two games with Bryce Young at quarterback, but the Chiefs have the third-best run defense in the NFL. This might force Young to make more plays. Young has led the Panthers to two straight wins, throwing for 297 yards and one touchdown. — David Newton

    Stat to know: Another win for the Panthers would tie their longest win streak over past five seasons. They won two straight before their bye.

    Bold prediction: Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco will, if he plays, average over 5.5 yards per carry. The Panthers rank 28th in EPA allowed per designed carry, so it should be a nice soft landing for the running back potentially returning from injury. — Walder

    Injuries: Chiefs | Panthers

    Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. Kansas City might ease Pacheco back in his return from injury. That sets the stage for Hunt against a Panthers defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Hunt has had 20-plus touches in four of his past five games and scored 17 or more fantasy points in three of them. This could be his last big game before Pacheco takes over. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered in back-to-back games after starting the season 1-7 ATS. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 34, Panthers 17
    Moody’s pick: Chiefs 31, Panthers 16
    Walder’s pick: Chiefs 27, Panthers 13
    FPI prediction: KC, 77.0% (by an average of 11.3 points)

    Matchup must-reads: What’s gone right and wrong for playcaller Andy Reid so far? … With recent success, Panthers’ Young finally having fun

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    8:38

    What is the biggest concern for the Chiefs right now?

    Stephen A. Smith, Shannon Sharpe and Rex Ryan debate the biggest concern for the Chiefs after their loss to the Bills.


    1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: HOU -7.5 (40.5 O/U)

    Titans storyline to watch: Texans defensive lineman Denico Autry faces his former team for the first time this week. After posting three sacks in five games, Autry, an 11-year veteran, will face Titans right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere, who has allowed six sacks. This matchup is a huge advantage for Houston, especially in third-and-long situations. “It’s almost miraculous he can still do it at his age the way he does it as a physical edge setter that can rush,” coach Brian Callahan said. — Turron Davenport

    Texans storyline to watch: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has averaged 259 passing yards per game in his career, but the Titans are allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the league this season (164.6), so two strengths will collide. Texans coach DeMeco Ryans pointed out how the Titans’ third-down defense does “a really good job of playing tight coverage.” Tennessee has allowed the third-lowest conversion rate (32.5%) on defense, so if the Texans want to get Stroud going, winning on the key downs is important. — DJ Bien-Aime

    Stat to know: The Titans have a 14% chance for No. 1 pick in 2025 NFL draft, per ESPN Analytics. Their chances improve to 19% with a loss and fall to 5% with a win.

    Bold prediction: Texans wide receiver Nico Collins will catch a 50-plus-yard touchdown. The Titans allow an average depth of target of 10.5 yards downfield, so I’d expect some deep shots to Collins. — Walder

    Injuries: Titans | Texans

    Fantasy X factor: Texans D/ST. Houston’s defensive front is elite, ranking second in run stop win rate (34.7%) and first in pass rush win rate (50.2%). It’s also tough on running backs, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game. That might force Tennessee to lean on quarterback Will Levis and the passing game — a risky move with an offensive line that ranks 28th in pass block win rate (52.3%). See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Titans are the third team since 2000 to start 1-9 or worse ATS (2012 Eagles and 2007 Ravens). Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Texans 28, Titans 14
    Moody’s pick: Texans 23, Titans 16
    Walder’s pick: Texans 27, Titans 16
    FPI prediction: HOU, 71.1% (by an average of 8.2 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Titans back coach Brian Callahan despite losing ways … Stingley taking on task of covering top WRs


    4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DEN -6 (41.5 O/U)

    Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos are 0-4 in Las Vegas since the Raiders made the move to the desert. To end the trend, it might come down to how well the Broncos’ offense closes the deal in the red zone. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is coming off the best game of his young career (307 yards, 4 TDs, 84.8% completion percentage) in the win over the Falcons. The Broncos are 5-of-15 in red zone trips in their five losses as compared to 16-of-21 in their six wins. The Raiders have allowed offenses to score touchdowns on at least 75% of their red zone trips in four of the past six games. If the Broncos can show some efficiency on offense and avoid the turnovers that have plagued them in past losses in Las Vegas they should end their Nevada losing streak. — Jeff Legwold

    Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders already have the worst-ranked running game (75.2 yards per game) in the NFL, and their top two running backs — Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quad) — missed practice Wednesday. So Raider Nation turns its eyes to 10th-year vet Ameer Abdullah, who has rushed for 82 yards and a TD on 17 carries this season; rookie Dylan Laube, who has one carry, no yards and a lost fumble, and Sincere McCormick, who is on the practice squad and has appeared in one game in his career. Oh, and Denver boasts the sixth-best run defense in the league. “I’m ready,” said Abdullah, who rushed for 42 yards, his highest total since 2017, and a TD on five carries at Denver in Week 5. — Paul Gutierrez

    Stat to know: The Raiders have lost seven straight to rookie starting quarterbacks since 2020. That’s the longest active streak in the NFL.

    Bold prediction: The Raiders will not target Pat Surtain II at all. The Broncos’ star cornerback has just a 9.5% target rate this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is second lowest among outside corners. And the Raiders don’t have a receiver good enough to force the ball to. — Walder

    Injuries: Broncos | Raiders

    Fantasy X factor: Nix. He is in complete control of Denver’s offense, and he’s set up for another big game against a Raiders defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With wide receiver Courtland Sutton as a key target, expect the passing game to thrive. Nix has been on fire, scoring 16 or more fantasy points in seven straight games, including three with more than 23 points. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as favorites this season, and they’ve covered five straight games in that role. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Broncos 28, Raiders 20
    Moody’s pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 10
    Walder’s pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 13
    FPI prediction: DEN, 56.2% (by an average of 2.2 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Broncos building young core amid salary cap constraints … Bowers central to Raiders’ new offense … How rookie Nix is keeping Broncos in playoff hunt

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    1:18

    Why Bo Nix has turned a corner in fantasy

    Tristan H. Cockcroft discusses the rise of Bo Nix after setting personal-best records vs. the Falcons.


    4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: GB -2 (47.5 O/U)

    49ers storyline to watch: The 49ers are still banged up, but their chances of slowing down Packers quarterback Jordan Love & Co. took a big hit this week with defensive end Nick Bosa ruled out with left hip and oblique injuries. San Francisco simply doesn’t have a reliable pass rush when Bosa isn’t on the field. With Bosa on the field, the Niners have a 33% pressure rate and 8% sack rate. Without Bosa, those numbers drop to 18% and 2%, both of which would rank last in the NFL. As if that wasn’t enough, the 49ers will also be without starting QB Brock Purdy, who is dealing with a right shoulder injury. That should make for quite the uphill climb in a game San Francisco desperately needs to win to stay in the NFC playoff picture. — Nick Wagoner

    Packers storyline to watch: Love was a perfect 6-for-6 last week against the Bears on throws of 15 or more yards downfield — four which went to receiver Christian Watson — and he’s in the top five in the NFL in air yards per attempt. But the 49ers’ defense has been strong against deep throws. According to ESPN Research, quarterbacks facing the 49ers have the lowest Total QBR and second-lowest completion percentage on such throws, with three touchdown passes to seven interceptions. — Rob Demovsky

    Stat to know: The Packers are 5-0 this season against teams with records of .500 or worse. They’re 2-3 against teams with winning records.

    Bold prediction: 49ers tight end George Kittle will have 90-plus receiving yards. ESPN’s receiver scores are loving Kittle this season. He has the second-highest overall score among all wide receivers and tight ends (only A.J. Brown is ahead of him). — Walder

    Injuries: 49ers | Packers

    Fantasy X factor: 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings. Since the Week 9 bye, Jennings has led the team with 11 targets in back-to-back games, scoring 16-plus fantasy points each time. His efficiency stands out, too, as his 2.66 yards per route run is in elite company — close to players such as Puka Nacua (3.13) and Justin Jefferson (2.75). Jennings is making his case as a go-to option for the 49ers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, which is tied for their longest ATS losing streak under coach Matt LaFleur. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: 49ers 28, Packers 26
    Moody’s pick: 49ers 27, Packers 24
    Walder’s pick: Packers 24, 49ers 23
    FPI prediction: GB, 54.6% (by an average of 1.5 points)

    Matchup must-reads: 49ers TE Kittle vows to play vs. Packers … Packers’ Love learning from playoff loss to 49ers … How Williams is trying to remain NFL’s best OT at 36 … 49ers rule out Purdy, Nick Bosa; Allen to start


    4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: ARI -1 (47.5 O/U)

    Cardinals storyline to watch: Sunday will be telling. How the Cardinals handle coming off their bye week after four straight wins could set the tone for the home stretch. Thus far, players say the focus has been there at practice, but how that translates to the field is yet to be seen. With a win over the Seahawks, the Cardinals will be in the undisputed driver’s seat of the NFC West with another matchup against Seattle coming in two weeks. — Josh Weinfuss

    Seahawks storyline to watch: The Seahawks’ offensive line was a glaring weakness over their first nine games, but it had perhaps its best performance of the season in Seattle’s win over the 49ers. Abraham Lucas made his season debut at right tackle, and Olu Oluwatimi stepped in at center after Connor Williams’ abrupt retirement. The first-place Cardinals, whom Seattle faces twice over the next three weeks, rank in the bottom five in both pass rush win rate and pressure rate. — Brady Henderson

    Stat to know: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has lost his past five games against Seattle. Another defeat would tie the second-longest losing streak by any starting quarterback against the Seahawks in the franchise’s history.

    Bold prediction: Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen will allow no more than 20 receiving yards to receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Woolen has put up strong numbers as a nearest defender this season, allowing 0.7 yards per coverage snap — fifth fewest among outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

    Injuries: Cardinals | Seahawks

    Fantasy X factor: Harrison. The Seahawks’ defense has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and while Harrison’s production has been up and down, he’s still commanding a 40% target share in the red zone — the eighth-highest share in the league. With the Seahawks also giving up the ninth-most receiving touchdowns to wideouts, Harrison could be in for a big day. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: Four straight Seahawks games have gone under the total. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 30, Seahawks 27
    Moody’s pick: Cardinals 28, Seahawks 24
    Walder’s pick: Cardinals 29, Seahawks 26
    FPI prediction: ARI, 54.4% (by an average of 1.6 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Cards’ Robinson ‘taking it one day at a time’ in injury return … Seahawks’ training center loses power as huge storm hits state

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    1:13

    Foxworth: Kyler deserves to be in MVP conversation

    Domonique Foxworth explains why Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray deserves to be considered an MVP contender.


    8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: PHI -2.5 (48.5 O/U)

    Eagles storyline to watch: The Rams are coming off only their second game of the season without a turnover. After having an NFL-low two takeaways from Weeks 1 to 7, the Eagles lead the NFL with 11 takeaways since Week 8. According to ESPN Research, Philadelphia leads the NFL with 43 points off turnovers since Week 8. — Tim McManus

    Rams storyline to watch: The Eagles have leaned heavily on running back Saquon Barkley, who leads the NFL with 1,347 scrimmage yards. Players are expecting defenses to focus more on Philly’s ground game down the stretch, which would put more of the onus on quarterback Jalen Hurts and the passing game. A key matchup will be receiver A.J. Brown versus a Rams pass defense that has yielded 18 touchdown passes this season. Brown’s 88.3 receiving yards per game ranks fourth behind only Nico Collins (103.5), Ja’Marr Chase (96.0) and Justin Jefferson (91.2). — Sarah Barshop

    Stat to know: The Eagles have had 150 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in five straight games. That’s the longest such streak since the 1988 Bengals (also five straight).

    Bold prediction: Eagles guard Landon Dickerson will not surrender a pass block loss to either Braden Fiske or Kobie Turner. It’s a tough assignment, but Dickerson’s 94% pass block win rate ranks 10th among guards this season. — Walder

    Injuries: Eagles | Rams

    Fantasy X factor: Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith. Smith has been quiet lately, with only 10.3 fantasy points over the past two weeks. But don’t give up on him yet. This matchup against the Rams looks promising, and remember, Smith has hit 15-plus fantasy points in six of nine games this season. He’s poised for a bounce-back performance, and this could be the week. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is 8-13 ATS as a prime-time underdog (2-4 ATS with Rams). Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Rams 23
    Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Rams 19
    Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Rams 20
    FPI prediction: PHI, 58.6% (by an average of 3.5 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Eagles’ yin and yang CBs: Slay and Mitchell … Rams hope to edge out Eagles by disrupting ‘tush push’


    8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (50.5 O/U)

    Ravens storyline to watch: Lamar Jackson has been the best quarterback in “Monday Night Football” history. In eight games, he has thrown 20 touchdown passes and no interceptions for an 86 QBR, which is the highest among QBs with at least five starts. The Chargers have been the stingiest defense in the NFL, though, allowing an NFL-best 14.5 points per game — the lowest scoring average after 11 weeks since the 2019 Patriots (10.8). — Jamison Hensley

    Chargers storyline to watch: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is playing some of the best football of his career. He is on a streak of 246 pass attempts without an interception, which is the longest in team history. He also has six touchdowns on passes of 20-plus yards downfield, tied for the most in the NFL. This matchup could be in his favor as the Ravens’ have the NFL’s worst pass defense, allowing 284.5 yards per game. — Kris Rhim

    Stat to know: Jackson (8.3) and Herbert (13.0) lead the NFL in touchdown-to-interception ratio. This will be the third instance in the past 20 seasons in which the outright leaders in that mark have met in Week 12 or later.

    Bold prediction: Ravens cornerback Nate Wiggins will record the first interception of his career. Though the Baltimore pass defense has struggled overall, Wiggins is allowing just 0.8 yards per coverage snap (average is 1.2) despite being targeted at a roughly average 17% rate. — Walder

    Injuries: Ravens | Chargers

    Fantasy X factor: Herbert. The Ravens’ defense has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Chargers have leaned heavily on Herbert and the passing game recently. He has scored 19-plus fantasy points in four straight games. With this matchup, expect the Chargers to keep airing it out, making Herbert and his receivers very good fantasy options this week. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: Overs are 9-2 in Ravens games this season, which is the highest over rate in the NFL. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Chargers 28, Ravens 25
    Moody’s pick: Chargers 23, Ravens 20
    Walder’s pick: Ravens 24, Chargers 17
    FPI prediction: BAL, 60.4% (by an average of 4.1 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Tucker on missed kicks: ‘Nobody takes it more personally than I do’ … McConkey’s signature rookie moment came in critical win over the Bengals

  • Insider notebook: Michigan’s secret week with Bryce Underwood, Big Ten coach predicts Ohio State-Indiana score

    Whoosh. That sound you hear was the recruiting dominos cascading en masse Thursday. The No. 1 prospect in the 2025 class Bryce Underwood stole the thunder of Top247 QB Julian Lewis’ McAfee-televised commitment to Colorado earlier in the day, two massive strokes of recruiting news that settled nicely in time for us to enjoy the ramifications of an important Week 13 slate in college football. National Signing Day — aka, the first day of the Early Signing Period — is Dec. 4, earlier than ever. It’s nice to get much of this out of the way now, we think.

    Still, we have some fresh info to unpack regarding the Underwood’s flip from LSU to Michigan in today’s insider notebook, along with happenings of the on-field and off-field (job vacancy) variety. Here’s what we’re unpacking. 

    • Inside Bryce Underwood’s secret trip to Ann Arbor to clinch the flip
    • Michigan’s plans for its 2025 QB room still include a transfer 
    • LSU is reeling, but it’ll feel better if Garrett Nussmeier returns
    • Opposing coaches size up the game of the week: Ohio State vs. Indiana
    • Why East Carolina, Fresno State rank as best job openings — with Charlotte a sneaky-good one
    • And why UMass is stuck
    • Lane Kiffin has sprinkled some of that Saban pixie dust on … Saban’s former DC, Pete Golding
    • Your tiebreaker guide as teams look to make conference championship games

    Michigan’s final push to finish off the flip of the year

    Underwood capped a prolific high school career at Belleville last week. 
    USATSI

    Sherrone Moore’s work at practice this week went well beyond preparing Michigan for its upcoming game against Northwestern.

    For multiple days, Moore and the Wolverines secretly hosted five-star QB and No. 1 overall 2025 recruit Bryce Underwood during their prep for Northwestern, including Wednesday when he visited along with high school teammate and recent Michigan commit Elijah Dotson. Moore had the blue-chip quarterback shadow him throughout the day, let him sit on meetings and gave thorough insight into everything the Wolverines were doing. Those days on campus essentially sealed the day for Michigan and set them up for the bombshell news that Underwood dropped Thursday evening, that he’d be flipping his commitment from LSU to his home-state Wolverines.

    It capped multiple months of aggressive behind-the-scenes work that was spearheaded by Moore and general manager Sean Magee as they had to overcome a relationship that was significantly fractured because of Underwood, who grew up wanting to play at Michigan, not being made to feel like a priority earlier in his high school career by former Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh and ex-Michigan quarterbacks coach Matt Weiss. Underwood confirmed those hurt feelings in an interview with CBS Sports in September, telling Dennis Dodd, “They [Michigan] were like going more down South to find more players instead of having what they have in their backyard.”

    Michigan also had to overcome Underwood’s loyalty to LSU and the relationships he’d built up with offensive coordinator Joe Sloan and the Tigers, who had been in on Underwood since his freshman year of high school.

    As recently as a week ago, Michigan thought Underwood was likely to end up sticking with his commitment to LSU. However, the Wolverines kept pushing and things progressively shifted in their favor in recent days, including after an important Underwood family discussion last weekend.

    During that talk with his family, Underwood weighed the pros and cons of Michigan vs. LSU and it ended with Underwood feeling strongly that flipping to the Wolverines was the right move for him. As was discussed, Michigan is down this year at 5-5 but so are the Tigers, who have fallen to 6-4 following three straight losses. That worked in favor of the Wolverines. So did the idea of being a hometown hero figure for a school 30 minutes down the road from his home in Belleville as opposed to just being essentially another guy at LSU, which has had two Heisman QB winners in the last five seasons. Those closest to Michigan and Underwood insist money was not the motivating factor, though an NIL package that has been reported in the eight-figure range drew headlines and underscored the importance of Underwood to the next era of Michigan football. 

    Nevertheless, the time at practice was important, too, and ended with Underwood privately indicating to Moore on Wednesday that he planned to flip to the Wolverines and with him then making it public and official on Thursday.

    Underwood’s commitment is going to shake up the recruiting world and will likely contribute to Michigan flipping other LSU commits. Michigan fans can now get exclusive access to The Michigan Insider at a special new price! For a limited time only, we are offering an Annual VIP Subscription to The Michigan Insider at a whopping 75% off the cost of the full membership for your first year! Click here to sign up today!

    The 6-foot-4, 205-pound Underwood’s Belleville career ended last week with a loss in the playoffs. He threw for 71 touchdowns and over 5,500 yards in that time, according to MaxPreps. He will enroll in January. 

    MORE: Where the top 10 QBs in 2025 are committed after Underwood, Julian Lewis come off board

    Michigan still expected to pursue transfer QB

    Michigan coach Sherrone Moore was up-front with Underwood that the Wolverines still need a portal QB. 
    Getty

    Even after landing Underwood, Michigan still plans to pursue to a transfer quarterback. There is too much uncertainty and disappointment in Michigan’s current QB room — which started three players this season, to varying degrees of disappointment — to not do so. 

    The hope is to land a veteran, bridge option figure who can both compete with Underwood for the starting job next year and be an additional person for him to learn under as he prepares to be the Wolverines’ quarterback of the future.

    That plan was verbalized during discussions with Underwood and his family and was something they were completely on board with. It was made clear to Michigan that starting Day 1 wasn’t a necessity for Underwood, although this No. 1 ranked recruit is so talented that it shouldn’t be a surprise if he ends up making a push for the starting job during his first year on campus. Michigan opens the 2025 season vs. New Mexico, then travels to Oklahoma in Week 2. 

    MORE: Unpacking ramifications, salary implications of Underwood picking Michigan

    LSU’s QB plans in 2025 materialize 

    Garrett Nussmeier is a polarizing prospect for NFL scouts, who may think he needs another year of college reps. 
    Getty

    While losing out on Underwood is a significant blow for LSU, it doesn’t mean LSU will be without talent at quarterback next year.

    Multiple NFL scouts told CBS Sports this week that they think there’s a good chance current Tigers starter Garrett Nussmeier ends up returning to school for another season instead of leaving for the NFL. Had Underwood signed with LSU, perhaps Nussmeier would have been more apt to leave rather than look over his shoulder at a player who fans would pine for all offseason (as happened at Florida with Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway). 

    Although Nussmeier ranks in the top-10 nationally with 3,126 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns, the feedback that NFL scouting sources shared on Nussmeier was more in the Day 2 range as opposed to him being a solid first-round prospect. That could bode well for LSU.

    “I love Nuss the person and he loves LSU way too much to leave,” one scout said.

    That said, it’s not yet a guarantee that he will in fact return. A quarterback class that’s as wide-open as any in recent history could factor into Nussmeier’s thought process, although the more consistent belief in the scouting world is that Nussmeier would benefit from another year with the Tigers (this was his first season as starter). Nussmeier’s 11 interceptions are the second-most in the SEC. Five have come in LSU’s last three games, including three during a loss to Texas A&M and two in a loss to Alabama.

    “If I had to take one (of the quarterbacks), I’d probably take Nuss,” a scout said. “Not saying first QB taken or first round, but he’d be the most I’m most comfortable taking a shot on. Just the way he plays the position. Got to tame some of the gunslinger in him and he’s small, but he makes all the throws and knows how to play the position.”

    Opposing coaches size up Indiana vs. Ohio State, pick score

    Can Indiana keep up with Ohio State’s skill talent, including senior WR Emeka Egbuka? 
    Getty

    While much of SEC country expects, or is at least hoping, that Indiana will be thoroughly dominated by the Buckeyes, multiple Big Ten coaches that CBS Sports spoke to this week had a different opinion about the matchup.

    Two coaches whose teams have faced both Indiana and Ohio State didn’t go as far as predicting a Hoosiers win but they both expect Indiana to be competitive against the Buckeyes, even more so after Ohio State lost starting center Seth McLaughlin this week to a season-ending injury. It was Ohio State’s second season-ending loss along the offensive line after previously losing standout left tackle Josh Simmons to a season-ending injury.

    “If they can stay efficient and stay on schedule like they have all year except the Michigan game, they have a shot,” one coach said. “If Ohio State’s defense can cover them outside on the RPOs and stuff the run, it could be a long afternoon. Losing the center will hurt Ohio State because Indiana is strong on the interior d-line. Indiana’s corners are solid, but can they hold up play after play against OSU’s wide receivers. We shall find out. I think it’s close but Ohio State wins. I’d say 28-20.”

    While this will be the first ranked team that Indiana has faced this season, the Hoosiers won nine of their first 10 games by at least 14 points. The only exception was their most recent game, a 20-15 victory over 5-5 Michigan.

    Indiana ranks in the top seven nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

    “I’ve got to give respect to how well Cignetti and his coaching staff had those guys ready to play,” another coach said. “They’re not overwhelming talent-wise, but they put their kids in good positions. They’re getting a lot out of those guys that, to me, are good guys but not dominant guys at this level. Do I think Indiana is a dominant team? No. But I also just had higher hopes for Ohio State before we played them. And I just think the injuries Ohio State has sustained up front (on the offensive line) will show. 

    “Their skill guys are as talented as anyone, but I don’t think they’re going to be able to run the ball against Indiana. (Indiana’s front seven is) undersized a little bit, but they play with great leverage, they’re very strong and they play hard. And what they do structurally, they do some things where it makes it hard for you. You’re going to have to throw it on them. But if Indiana can limit the big plays, it’s going to be a close game.”

    Comparing Ohio State’s offense to Indiana’s defense

    Stat OSU Offense Stat,  National Rank IND Defense Stat, National Rank
    Games Played 10 10 
    Offensive Plays of 10+ Yards 161 (No. 27) 95 (No. 5)
    Offensive Plays of 20+ Yards 48 (No. 49) 24 (No. 3)
    Offensive Plays of 25+ Yards 35 (No. 25) 15 (No. 4)
    Offensive Plays of 50+ Yards 9 (No. 7) 1 (No. 1)
    Rushes of 10+ Yards 63 (No. 18) 23 (No. 1)
    Rushes of 20+ Yards 12 (No. 72) 6 (No. 10)
    Rushes of 25+ Yards 7 (No. 78) 4 (No. 12)
    Rushes of 50+ Yards 2 (No. 40) 1 (No. 23)
    Completions of 20+ Yards 36 (No. 40) 18 (No. 3)
    Completions of 25+ Yards 28 (No. 15) 11 (No. 5)
    Completions of 50+ Yards 7 (No. 2) 0 (No. 1)
    Receptions of 20+ Yards 36 (No. 40) 18 (No. 3)
    Receptions of 25+ Yards 28 (No. 15) 11 (No. 5)
    Receptions of 50+ Yards 7 (No. 2) 0 (No. 1)

    There was an opposing viewpoint though from a third Big Ten staffer who’s expecting Indiana to struggle vs. the Buckeyes, who enter the matchup as a 10.5-point favorite.

    “In my honest opinion I think Ohio State is far more talented than Indiana,” he said. “Not sure if Indiana will be able to hang talent-wise. Indiana plays with toughness and heart. Will it be enough? I think Ohio State wins it comfortably.”

    Experts pick best, worst coach openings

    There are now 12 FBS head coach openings, all coming from the Group of 5 level, after Central Michigan coach Jim McElwain announced his intention to retire on Wednesday.

    Open jobs in 2024-25 coaching cycle

    Ball State Open (Fired Mike Neu) Mid-American Conference ~600,000
    Central Michigan Open (Jim McElwain retired) Mid-American Conference ~$1 million
    Charlotte Open (Fired Biff Poggi) American Athletic $1 million
    East Carolina Open (Fired Mike Houston) American Athletic $2-3 million
    Florida Atlantic Open (Fired Tom Herman) American Athletic $1 million
    Fresno State Interim Coach Mountain West $1-2 million
    Kennesaw State Open (Fired Brian Bohannon) Conference USA ~$500,000
    Rice Open (Fired Mike Bloomgren) American Athletic $1 million
    Southern Miss Open (Fired Will Hall) Sun Belt <$1 million
    Temple Open (Fired Stan Drayton) American Athletic $1-2 million
    UMass Open (Fired Don Brown) Independent <$1 million
    Utah State Interim Coach Mountain West $1-2 million

    Which job is best? And worst? We talked to a variety of sources around the sport — agents, athletic directors and personnel folks — to get to the bottom of it. 

    There wasn’t a consensus for the best job but the leading pick was East Carolina with Fresno State also getting picked as the top option. 

    East Carolina, which fired Mike Houston last month, is in the American Athletic Conference and has the financial resources to compete within the conference. Of all the open jobs, East Carolina paid its previous head coach the most at nearly $2.5 million. Western Kentucky coach Tyson Helton has been a prominent name in the search. 

    “Pay, support, location, conference and I feel like if you can hold on to some of those guys, of all the teams that are currently available, the closest (to winning),” said one coaching agent explaining why ECU was the best. 

    Fresno State has a good track record of success. Remember that Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer was Fresno State’s coach as recently as 2021. Interim head coach Tim Skipper has gone 5-5 this season after taking over for Jeff Tedford who stepped away in late July. 

    The school that got multiple plaudits for most potential beyond Fresno State and ECU was Charlotte. Located in a fertile recruiting area and in the AAC, Charlotte doesn’t have much of a tradition but does have a desire to win. Biff Poggi went 6-16 in nearly two seasons as the 49ers’ head coach. 

    “Charlotte is a sneaky good job in my opinion,” one industry source said.

    Said one AD: “Charlotte behind (ECU and Fresno) but tons of potential.” 

    The clear cut answer for the worst job available, according to the sources CBS Sports polled, was UMass, which fired Don Brown on Monday. 

    “Smallest stadium in MAC,” one industry source explained. “Not a great recruiting area.” 

    If Don Brown’s wife is accurate, UMass’s NIL situation is also in bad shape. Deborah Brown posted on X that UMass had a total of only $38,000 in NIL resources, by far one of the worst situations in college football if true. 

    UMass hasn’t had a winning season since 2010 and has gone 8-54 since 2019. It has been an independent program since 2016 but will rejoin the MAC starting next season. 

    “Some people might pick Kennesaw or Temple, but at UMass you’re just struggling,” said an industry source. “At least with Kennesaw you’re close to a good area. At UMass, you’re tucked in the Northeast where football is not great at the high school level. There is some good play in New Jersey and you can pull some New England kids, but you’ve got to recruit elsewhere.” 

    MORE: CBS Sports’ Shehan Jeyarajah makes his case for Kennesaw State as worst

    Pete Golding’s growth in Oxford

    The 40-year-old Pete Golding has seen his stock rise in Oxford. 
    USATSI

    Ole Miss defensive coordinator Pete Golding, once the source of Alabama fans’ ire, is flourishing in Oxford, leading one of the nation’s most impressive defenses. 

    No. 9 Ole Miss is 8-2 and has a good shot at making the College Football Playoff if it can win out starting this weekend against a Florida team playing better under quarterback DJ Lagway. A big reason the Rebels are in this fortuitous position is the growth of Golding and his defense. 

    While Charlie Weis Jr. is the Ole Miss assistant getting more buzz this coaching cycle because of the Florida Atlantic opening, Golding is the coach program insiders pointed to as an internal name that would make sense to replace Lane Kiffin should he ever leave. While at Alabama as Nick Saban’s defensive coordinator from 2018-2022, industry sources questioned whether Golding had the disposition to be a head coach one day. He wasn’t an obvious fit to jump into a Power Five job the way his defensive coordinator predecessors, Kirby Smart and Jeremy Pruitt, were. 

    But he’s grown in many ways as a coach under Kiffin at Ole Miss. Kiffin has empowered him as essentially a head coach of defense where Golding had greater say in the type of recruits/transfers Ole Miss pursued on defense and how they were deployed once they got on campus. Golding has always been a fantastic recruiter, a great benefit for Kiffin who prefers the transfer portal over the years-long high school recruiting process, but it is his leadership skills and greater confidence that have people bullish about his future. 

    It has all paid off on a defense that overpowered Georgia two weeks ago for the biggest win of the Kiffin era. When everything is clicking for this Ole Miss squad, it has a legitimate argument as the nation’s best team. Golding’s defense is a big reason why. 

    Tiebreakers to know this week in the Power Four

    Via the incomporable CBS Sports research team, here are the conference championship tiebreakers at play this week in the Power Four.

    • ACC: SMU & Miami control destiny to reach Title Game
      • SMU clinches title game berth with win this week
      • Clemson clinches title game berth with Miami loss this week
    • Big Ten: Oregon has already clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game 
      • Indiana: Clinches spot in Big Ten Championship Game with a win at Ohio State
      • Ohio State: Clinches spot in Big Ten Championship Game with home wins against Indiana & Michigan 
      • Penn State: Must win out (at Minnesota, vs Maryland) and get help in order to make Big Ten Championship Game
    • Big 12: BYU & Colorado control destiny to reach title game
      • BYU: Clinches title game berth with win & Iowa State loss this week
      • Colorado: Clinches title game berth with win, Arizona State loss & Iowa State loss this week
      • Entering this weekend, nine of the 16 teams in the Big 12 are still in contention for the Big 12 Championship Game
    • SEC: Texas & Texas A&M control destiny to reach title game (will meet next week)
      • No team can clinch a title game berth this week
      • Six SEC teams could finish the regular season 10-2: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. Texas A&M needs to defeat Texas next week, and all teams involved need to win all other games.

  • Fantasy Football Week 12 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: Brian Robinson Jr. conduce clasamentul ca câștigător al săptămânii

    Săptămâna 12 va fi distractivă. Avem șase echipe la revedere (Atlanta, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, New Orleans și Jets), iar managerii Fantasy ar putea avea niște formații interesante într-o săptămână crucială.

    Vestea bună este că avem câțiva jucători remarcabili care se întorc din accidentare, cu Mike Evans (ischio-coarde), George Kittle (ischio-coarde) și Sam LaPorta (umăr), toți programați să revină la acțiune și poate că și Isiah Pacheco (picior) ar putea reveni. Având în vedere că toți jucătorii vedete sunt la revedere, vom primi orice întăriri putem obține.

    Una dintre poveștile interesante de urmat este Giants cu Tommy DeVito care începe pentru Daniel Jones, și ce înseamnă asta pentru Tyrone Tracy Jr. și Malik Nabers. Încep pe amândoi cu meciul lor cu Tampa Bay.

    De asemenea, vrem să vedem ce face Anthony Richardson împotriva Lions după performanța sa impresionantă împotriva Jets în săptămâna 11. Jonathon Brooks este programat să-și facă debutul în NFL în săptămâna 12 și vom vedea ce înseamnă asta pentru Chuba Hubbard. Și în același joc, ar putea fi o săptămână grozavă pentru Patrick Mahomes și Chiefs, având în vedere confruntarea cu Panthers.

    Sunt încântat să văd ce se întâmplă în săptămâna 12. Și sper că toate formațiile tale sunt gata de plecare. Playoff-urile Fantasy se apropie, așa că haideți să câștigăm și să construim un impuls înainte de postsezon.

    Proiectii alimentate de

    La începutul sezonului, Brian Robinson Jr. l-a depășit pe Bijan Robinson, făcându-i pe managerii Fantasy să creadă că au elaborat „B. Robinson” greșit în acest an. Asta s-a schimbat în ultima vreme, dar Brian Robinson Jr. are încă o campanie solidă. Și ar trebui să aibă o ieșire mare în săptămâna 12 împotriva Cowboys.

    Robinson a marcat cel puțin 13,1 puncte PPR în șase din opt meciuri din acest sezon. El s-a întors dintr-o absență de două meciuri cu o accidentare a hamstringului în săptămâna 11 la Philadelphia și a marcat 14,2 puncte PPR cu 16 porturi pentru 63 de metri și un touchdown și o capturare pentru 9 metri pe o țintă.

    Săptămâna aceasta, el se confruntă cu o apărare de la Dallas care vine dintr-o înfrângere luni seara în fața Houstonului, iar Robinson ar trebui să aibă picioare proaspete de când a jucat ultima dată joi seara în Săptămâna 11. Și acesta este o confruntare grozavă, deoarece fundașii au avut mult succes împotriva lui. Cowboys din ultima vreme. În ultimele lor cinci jocuri, cinci fundașii alergători au marcat cel puțin 12,1 puncte PPR, cu șapte touchdown-uri permise.

    Îmi place Austin Ekeler ca dormitor în săptămâna 12, dar Robinson are avantajul în top-12 în toate ligile. Căutați-l pe „B. Robinson” pentru a domina Dallas în acest joc.

    ÎNCEPEȚI-LE și ASEZĂȚI-LE

    Quarterbacks

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    ÎNCEPEȚI-LE și ASEZĂȚI-LE

    Receptoare late

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    ÎNCEPEȚI-LE și ASEZĂȚI-LE

    Receptoare late

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    ÎNCEPEȚI-LE și ASEZĂȚI-LE

    Tight End

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    Comandanți (vs. DAL)

    Cowboys au fost o mizerie ofensiv de când Dak Prescott (ischio-coarda) a fost rănit, iar acum linia ofensivă este lovită. Apărătorul drept Zack Martin (gleznă/umăr) și gardianul stâng Tyler Smith (gleznă/genunchi) nu s-au antrenat miercuri, iar acest lucru ar putea fi un dezastru dacă ambii sunt în fața Comandanților. Este și Dan Quinn, fostul coordonator defensiv din Dallas, care se confruntă cu fosta sa echipă. Și Cowboys au înscris 16 puncte combinate fără Prescott în ultimele două jocuri, în timp ce au permis opt sack-uri și șapte turnover-uri.

    • Buccaneers (la NYG)
    • Cardinals (la SEA)
    • Urși (vs. MIN)

    Ambalatori (vs. SF)

    Mi-a plăcut DST-ul Packers din Săptămâna 11 la Chicago, dar apărarea a fost o ușoară dezamăgire, cu doar trei sack-uri și fără refaceri, în timp ce a permis 19 puncte. Săptămâna aceasta, DST-ul Packers ar trebui evitat cu o confruntare cu cei de la 49ers. San Francisco a înregistrat doar două turnover-uri în ultimele trei jocuri, iar Brock Purdy a fost demis de trei ori sau mai puțin în opt jocuri la rând. Ar trebui să găsiți un alt oră de vacanță pentru săptămâna 12.

    ÎNCEPEȚI-LE și ASEZĂȚI-LE

    KICKERS

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  • Fantasy Football Storylines to Watch in Week 12: Nico Collins returns just in time

    I don’t know what I expected.

    Last Saturday, I sat at a good friend’s house to catch “The Boxing Match of the Century,” and the “Arrested Development” clip kept replaying in my head. I grew up watching Mike Tyson. I remember when I was watching the ’97 match against Holyfield that turned into a brawl. His speed and power were a marvel. But that was nearly 30 years ago. Conspiracy notions aside, the real clash over the weekend was preconceived notions battling with a heavy dose of reality. And we see which concept won.

    The 2024 fantasy football and NFL seasons have presented us with similar situations. Most recently, I hoped my Bengals could keep their season alive on the primetime stage. But we, and every offense they’ve faced, knew their defensive struggles were a problem. I had the same feeling after the final play. Regardless, setting expectations helps reconcile the eventual results. More importantly, we know how to navigate the takeaways.

    And as the fantasy playoffs creep up on us, leveraging those actionable nuggets can make or break your season.

    Admittedly, I didn’t watch the game in real time, but here are the storylines I gleamed from social media:

    • Jared Goff redeemed himself from his five-INT outing in Week 10.

    • David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are this year’s version of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.

    • Doug Pederson is about to have a lot of free time on his hands.

    Between Jameson Williams doing his best Marshawn Lynch impersonation and Gibbs flashing his speed, Jacksonville didn’t have a chance. In either case, the big plays made the headlines. Imagine my surprise when I checked the box score and saw how much Amon-Ra St. Brown got in on the fun.

    It’s a testament to the strength of the offense that a multi-touchdown game from its WR1 isn’t the leading topic afterward. Although, that’s a feature, not a bug in Detroit. The Lions have had bottom-12 early-down passing rates for three straight years. TE Sam LaPorta was their WR2 last year. But I’d be careful before labeling St. Brown anything other than one of the best at the position.

    • Contested Catch Rate: 70.0% (2nd out of 24 WRs — min. 20.0% target share)

    • Explosive Play Rate: 21.3% (8th)

    • Forced Missed Tackles: 8 (T-10th)

    Typically, I use the standard advanced metrics like yards per route run or air yards to contextualize a receiver. But most know ARSB primarily operates out of the slot. His receiving aDOT hasn’t been over nine yards at any point in his career. We’d expect him to be efficient. Honestly, I had to double-check the contested catch rate stat. St. Brown (17) has more explosive receptions than George Pickens (16), and this changed my perception of the fourth-year receiver even more. So, his WR1 status can’t be due to volume alone.

    Touchdown streak aside, the USC product finds himself at the intersection of talent and situation. He accounts for 28.2% of Goff’s passing yards. For reference, Tyreek Hill represents 26.5% of Miami’s aerial attack. Plus, St. Brown’s ability to move the chains is unmatched by his peers. At 44 receiving first downs, he has the most of any WR at this point in the season. Put another way, Goff has finished as a top-12 QB four times this season, and St. Brown has been the overall WR1 in half of those games. However, even in that stat, we can see the potential cap on his weekly ceiling.

    I mentioned the Lions’ gritty ground game earlier; they’re 28th in early-down passing rate and run at the fifth-highest rate in the green zone. Before Goff was throwing five picks, he had back-to-back weeks under 150 yards. A low-volume script isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Nevertheless, St. Brown’s role and impact on the offense remain unquestioned. And, with matchups against high-scoring offenses (Packers and Bills) during the fantasy playoffs, we should see more of the Sun God when we need him the most.

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    To be clear, I’m kidding. I do wonder how many 49ers fans would agree with the sentiment, though. And, not for nothing, Jauan Jennings gave a few reasons to question his place in the hierarchy earlier in the season.

    Through 11 weeks, Jennings’ 46.5-point PPR total in Week 3 is the second-highest of any WR this year. Still, that result should come with an asterisk (or three). Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both missed the game. It was Brandon Aiyuk’s third game back after his offseason hold-in. Christian McCaffrey was in Germany. But we’ve seen HC Kyle Shanahan make do with less. So, watching Jennings fade as the primary pieces of the offense returned made sense.

    • Week 3: 40.0% (Target Share), 47.0% (Air Yard Share), 46.5 (PPR Points)

    • Week 4: 23.0%, 24.0%, 11.8

    • Week 5: 13.0%, 16.0%, 2.3

    However, chalking up Jennings’s resurgence to Aiyuk’s injury alone would be reductive. Aiyuk saw more man coverage as he lined up as a perimeter receiver on 80.4% of his snaps. Meanwhile, Jennings manned the slot 48.9% of the time with the two on the field. Since he missed two games with a hip injury, we only have a two-game sample to determine his sustainability as a fantasy asset. But really, Week 10 should have been enough.

    Jauan Jennings route chartJauan Jennings route chart

    Jauan Jennings route chart. (Photo by Next Gen Stats)

    Two things stick out when looking at Jennings’ route charts provided by Next Gen Stats. First, he instantly returned to a double-digit workload. No asterisks are needed here. Yes, Aiyuk was out, but Christian McCaffrey was back for his first game. George Kittle was (relatively) healthy. Even rookie Ricky Pearsall had a 70.0% route rate. And yet, Jennings pulls up after a two-game absence with a gaudy 33.0% target share. The second part is his route depth.

    Schemed-up receivers turning short and intermediate catches into explosive plays had been a staple of the 49ers offense for years. It’s been part of why we, as a football community, have debated Brock Purdy’s contribution to the offense since he became the starter. However, only Anthony Richardson had a higher passing aDOT through the first month and a half of the season. CMC’s return not only added another option but enabled more concepts that took more off Purdy’s shoulders. Back in that Week 3 explosion for Jennings, he averaged 12.4 air yards per target. Fast forward to Week 10, it was down to 7.6. We’re not only getting the volume from Jennings, but also high-percentage looks boosting his weekly floor.

    Even with San Francisco’s slim hopes of a playoff spot, we have a sense of how the offense runs with everyone healthy. Jennings has led the team in targets in two consecutive games (11 and 10) with the highest slot target rate of the 49ers’ receivers. If pressured, Purdy has looked to Jennings (five targets) the same number of times he’s thrown to McCaffrey and Kittle.

    Jennings is the team’s WR1 and should have top-24 value for the rest of the fantasy season.

    If you passed on Brock Bowers during your draft, I get it. We only start one TE. Rookies are tough to project. Plus, for Bowers specifically, he had target earners around him. But history highlights why finding prospects like Bowers can change your season.

    On the one hand, saying targets and running a bunch of routes equals fantasy points sounds overly simplistic. But the receiving component of the TE position is what matters to us. I’ve yet to play in a points-per-block league. Using the ’23 season as a proxy, five of the top six TEs all had target shares of 20.0% or more. Nobody’s route participation rate was below 70.0%. So, on the other hand, prioritizing pass-catching talent can give you an edge. However, in the case of Bowers, the advantage is even greater.

    Brock Bowers route chartBrock Bowers route chart

    Brock Bowers route chart. (Photo by Next Gen Stats)

    Watching Bowers snap off routes and instantly create separation backs up what his route tree shows. He’s a receiver playing TE. His 16 targets on Sunday match the third-most of any TE over the last five years. Bowers has had more pass attempts thrown his way (89) than Justin Jefferson (86). At 16.0 PPR PPG, the Raiders’ TE1 would be the WR10 ahead of Garrett Wilson. But the workload superlatives only go so far for our purposes.

    Volume can’t be Bowers’ only path to production. He has Gardner Minshew throwing him the ball. Las Vegas has a bottom-five rank in yards per drive and an offensive line sitting at 23rd in pass-block win rate. I’d be more concerned, except check the route depths for Bowers against the Dolphins. For all their other issues on offense, the scheme has revolved around finding ways to get their rookie the ball.

    Bowers’ 5.4 air yards per target are ahead of only Cade Otton and Will Dissly. Even better, Bowers leads all TEs in looks with an average time to throw less than 2.5 seconds. In other words, the plan is to quickly get the ball out of Minshew’s hands and over to Bowers. Unsurprisingly, he’s one of the five players at his position with a YAC per reception over five yards. At worst, we’ve got a high-end WR2 we can play in our TE spot.

    For dynasty managers, don’t rejoice just yet. We’ve seen offenses shift when WRs develop. Just ask Sam LaPorta. But for the remainder of this season, there’s no more context needed. Bowers has the talent and scheme to overcome his poor situation. And with positive matchups throughout the fantasy playoffs (KC, TB, and JAX), Bowers will be one of the pieces you need to secure a championship.

    Kliff Kingsbury was the first person I thought about during the Commanders’ loss in TNF. Actually, I have Jayden Daniels on a couple of squads, so my mind was already there. Regardless, I figured our collective attention would turn to OC because, well, we’ve been here before.

    Arizona fans know the story currently unfolding in Washington well. Kingsbury will cook up a dynamic game plan that will have the offense humming early in the year. In 2021, you’d find the Cardinals in the top 10 for any efficiency metric in Weeks 1-8. But they slid to the middle of the pack to close out the season after Kyler Murray’s return in Week 13. And after a seven-game losing streak to end Kingsbury’s stint in Arizona, we all needed a trip to Thailand to recover. However, I’m not placing all of the blame on him just yet.

    Daniels missed the rest of the above Week 7 game after his 46-yard scamper. Fantasy managers breathed a sigh of relief when they got their QB1 back in Week 8, but the recent results have been underwhelming. He’s been outside the top 20 in consecutive weeks. And a quick check on his superpower points to a glaring problem.

    • Scramble Rate: 15.0% (Pre Rib Injury), 9.5% (Post Rib Injury)

    • Designed Rushing Rate: 12.7%, 7.5%

    • Rushing FPPG: 9.4, 2.8

    Daniels was averaging 53.7 yards per game as a runner before he got hurt. At the time, that was more than Breece Hall (51.8). But Daniels’ legs provided more than points to people who had him on their roster. They lifted the floor of the entire offense.

    Daniels’ ability to keep plays alive and draw defenders in only to uncork a ball downfield is something LSU fans routinely experienced. Now, the injury has forced him to be more of a dropback passer. And it’s not like he’s been able to turn to his non-McLaurin options during this time. Luke McCaffrey has 13 catches on the season. Zach Ertz, at 34 years old, is Washington’s second-best option. However, with a limited throwing ability, throws that looked routine earlier are stalling out drives lately.

    But like I said, I’m not giving up on the play-calling. Let’s remember who Daniels had to face with the rib injury. Pittsburgh came into the game with the same plan as the Giants: blitz him. Both defensive units sent five or more rushers on over 50.0% of his dropbacks. However, the Steelers knew how to account for Daniels on the ground when compressing the pocket. The Eagles had the secondary to put a cap on explosive plays. Last Thursday was his first game without a completed deep shot in five weeks.

    Luckily, the schedule opens up starting Sunday.

    Washington has Dallas, Tennessee, and the (heavily) injured Saints in the fantasy playoffs. All three have allowed at least one QB1 finish over the last three weeks. The mini-bye gives Daniels extra time to rest. His matchups will put him back in the top-12 conversation.

    I led off last week’s piece with expectations about the return of Nico Collins. Since Houston capped off Week 11 in primetime, let’s see if having their WR1 back had the desired effect.

    Now, in Collins’s defense (and the fantasy managers rostering him), he had a 77-yard TD catch off a screen pass called back on a holding penalty. Also, on that run after the catch, Collins pulls away from S Donovan Wilson. Even though it didn’t count, it was an encouraging sign about his health. If the Texans hadn’t been beating the brakes off the Cowboys, Collins might have run more routes. Regardless, even with the disappointment in the box score, Houston’s passing game improved like I had hoped.

    • EPA per DB: -0.15 (Weeks 7-10), 0.29 (Week 11)

    • Completion Percentage Over Expected: -8.0%, -5.3%

    • Explosive Pass Rate: 13.6%, 16.7%

    To be fair, C.J. Stroud didn’t produce perfect film. His interception highlighted some of the mechanical issues that have plagued him throughout the season. But his down-to-down efficiency hit its third-highest mark of the season (50.0% passing success rate). And part of the uptick was due to something I noted last week:

    “The Texans used quick-game concepts (passes with an average time to throw under 2.5 seconds) on 44.0% of Stroud’s dropbacks in Weeks 1-4. Unsurprisingly, Collins led the team in targets on these concepts (23) at a clip of 2.97 yards per route run. Put another way, he turned those 23 looks into 14 first downs.”

    Against the Cowboys’ pass rush, Stroud’s average time to throw was 2.48 seconds. That’s his fastest release in a single game all season. Accordingly, he faced pressure at the lowest rate since Week 7 (29.6%). As expected, Collins turned half of his receptions on quick-game concepts into first downs. Tank Dell generated an explosive on one of his. Collins’ return brought a missing piece back to the offense. And looking at Houston’s upcoming schedule (Titans, Jaguars), he came back at just the right time for fantasy managers.

  • NFL Week 11: Biggest questions, takeaways for every game

    Week 11 of the NFL season kicked off Thursday with quarterback Jalen Hurts leading the Philadelphia Eagles past the Washington Commanders.

    Around the NFL on Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers earned a statement win over the Baltimore Ravens, the Detroit Lions overpowered the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints look like they are headed in the right direction after posting their second consecutive wins.

    Our NFL Nation reporters reacted to all the action, answering lingering questions coming out of each game and detailing everything else you need to know for every team. Let’s get to it.

    Jump to:
    WSH-PHI | JAX-DET | LV-MIA
    IND-NYJ | BAL-PIT | CLE-NO
    GB-CHI | MIN-TEN | LAR-NE

    Rams

    Can the Rams’ offense sustain this success as they attempt a playoff run? After the Rams didn’t score a touchdown against Miami, coach Sean McVay called the offense “inconsistent.” While the Rams scored 28 points against the Patriots, they did it all in the second and third quarters. The Rams did not turn the ball over for the first time since Week 3. They’ll face a tougher test in Week 12 against a Philadelphia defense ranked seventh in DVOA. The Rams have won three out of four games after a 1-4 start and now have a playoff probability of 14%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

    Eye-popping stat: Matthew Stafford’s second-quarter touchdown pass to wide receiver Puka Nacua had a completion probability of 13.5%, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s Stafford’s lowest completion probability on any passing touchdown since 2017, when NGS began tracking that stat. The play gave the Rams a lead they never relinquished.

    Biggest hole in the game plan: Another slow start offensively. For the seventh time in 10 games, the Rams failed to score in the first quarter. They have been outscored by 50 points in first quarters this season, which is the worst in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. When asked last week whether they could pinpoint the reason for the early scoring struggles, both Stafford and McVay said it’s the result of poor execution. — Sarah Barshop

    Next game: vs. Eagles (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)


    Patriots

    Does first-year coach Jerod Mayo need to be more aggressive with his playcalling? Mayo has referred to himself as a “defensive head coach,” and some of his decision-making reflected that. He didn’t attempt a 54-yard field goal (tough wind in that direction); he settled for a field goal on fourth-and-3 from the Rams’ 13 late in the second quarter; and he called for a PAT instead of a two-point conversion while trailing 28-19 early in the fourth quarter (it was blocked). Such decisions are always easy to second guess, but none worked out for the Patriots. Mayo has said he’s taking notes throughout his first season and plans to learn from his experience. This game presented multiple decisions from which he can learn.

    Biggest hole in the game plan: Aligning correctly along the offensive line. The Patriots led 7-0 and appeared to convert on third-and-8 on a 17-yard connection from quarterback Drake Maye to tight end Hunter Henry. But an illegal formation penalty called on left tackle Vederian Lowe — which might have been a result of how deep left guard Michael Jordan aligned next to him — negated the play. It was a turning point in the game.

    Most surprising performance: Pass coverage. It certainly didn’t help that the Patriots couldn’t generate a consistent rush, but the secondary — which is a strength of the defense — didn’t have many answers for the potent combination of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Nacua had six receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown in the first half. Kupp had two touchdowns, and the latter was a backbreaking 69-yarder early in the third quarter. — Mike Reiss

    Next game: at Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

    Vikings

    Was this a bounce-back game for quarterback Sam Darnold? Absolutely. The game began inauspiciously when, on the third play of the Vikings’ first possession, Darnold’s pitch to running back Aaron Jones hit the ground and was recovered by the Titans. But after committing six turnovers in the previous two games, Darnold held on to the ball for the rest of the game while throwing two touchdown passes and running for a third. That was no small feat given the heavy pressure (38% of offensive snaps) he endured from the Titans’ defensive front, which was active even after the Vikings gave right guard Dalton Risner — a strong pass blocker — his first start of the season.

    Describe the game in two words: Penalty buffet. The Vikings had two touchdown drives extended by penalties against the Titans, including one on a fourth down incompletion. Penalties sometimes cancel out over the course of a game, but the Vikings held a big advantage throughout and ended up with three for 35 yards compared to the Titans’ 13 for 91 yards.

    Most surprising performance: Backup linebacker Pat Jones II pressured Titans quarterback Will Levis throughout the game, finishing with two sacks. They were his first sacks since Week 4, but he already has a career-high seven on the season. — Kevin Seifert

    Next game: at Bears (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

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    0:25

    Vikings pick off Will Levis late to secure win

    Titans quarterback Will Levis throws an interception in final minutes against the Vikings.


    Titans

    Can quarterback Will Levis’ big plays boost him for the rest of the season? Levis showed glimpses of the deep passer he was last season. It started with a beautifully thrown pass from his own end zone to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for a 98-yard touchdown. Levis’ deep strike to Calvin Ridley for 51 yards on a post the next series was another well-placed pass, but an illegal formation penalty called it back. Those two passes seemed to do something for Levis. With seven games left in the season, he can build upon his season-high 295 passing yards in his quest to prove he’s Tennessee’s future at QB.

    Describe the game in two words: Uphill battle. The Titans knew they were going to be attacked by Brian Flores’ defense. Minnesota did just that against the Titans’ offensive line, resulting in five sacks. The Titans also didn’t get the benefit of the whistle. The biggest penalty they committed was against safety Mike Brown, who was called for a personal foul after he broke up a pass on fourth down.

    Early prediction for next week: The Titans have allowed quarterbacks to rush for a touchdown in each of their past two games, and Darnold managed to escape multiple would-be sacks and deliver the ball downfield for big plays. Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud could rush for his first touchdown of the year next week. — Turron Davenport

    Next game: at Texans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

    Packers

    Is this what quarterback Jordan Love needed to get rolling? On a day when the Packers signal-caller threw his 11th interception to match his season total from last year, he and the offense left Soldier Field knowing that if they need a game-winning drive, they can get one. Trailing 19-14, Love, who was effective all game when throwing deep, hit receiver Christian Watson for a 60-yard catch-and-run. That set up the go-ahead score with 2:59 left in the game.

    Describe the game in two words: Lucky win. The Packers got away with a flat performance for the first 3½ quarters and only their last drive — and Karl Brooks blocking a 46-yard field goal attempt on the final play of the game — saved them from embarrassment. The Packers were fortunate not to lose any more ground in the NFC North.

    Biggest hole in the game plan: Red zone decisions. The Packers threw the ball on second-and-1 from the Bears’ 5-yard line and got flagged for an ineligible man downfield. Two plays later, on third-and-11 from the 15, Love threw his 11th interception of the season. Later, coach Matt LaFleur went for it on fourth-and-goal instead of settling for a field goal that would have cut the Bears’ lead to 19-17. — Rob Demovsky

    Next game: vs. 49ers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)


    Bears

    How did the offensive coordinator change affect the Bears’ offense? New OC Thomas Brown’ game plan led to more decisiveness from rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, who held the ball less (2.3 seconds, the lowest of his career) and made short, quick throws to combat the Packers’ pass rush. The Bears leaned heavily on the run, including a career-high 70 rushing yards from Williams, got their top playmakers involved (17 total catches for wide receivers DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen) and had more third-down conversions (eight) than they did the previous three weeks combined (six).

    Describe the game in two words: Gut punch. Chicago was playing its best complementary football since before its recent four-game losing streak. After cornerback Terell Smith picked off Jordan Love in the red zone, the Bears ended their streak of 25 straight drives without a touchdown. But Cairo Santos had a 46-yard field goal blocked as time expired, which would have given Chicago its first win over Green Bay in 11 meetings.

    Biggest hole in the game plan: The Bears need to play better along the defensive line. They pressured Love on only three of his 17 dropbacks (3-of-3, 72 passing yards) and running back Josh Jacobs went untouched into the end zone on Green Bay’s lone third-quarter drive. With nose tackle Andrew Billings (pectoral) out for the season, Chicago’s D-line needs to find solutions for their porous run defense. Quickly. — Courtney Cronin

    Next game: vs. Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

    Saints

    Is the bye coming at the right time for the Saints? New Orleans is finally picking up some positive momentum with its first win streak since Week 2, potentially putting the bye at an inopportune time. But it’s been a long season for the Saints, who fired coach Dennis Allen after a seven-game losing streak and promoted Darren Rizzi to interim coach. The Saints have dealt with a laundry list of injuries, and this could be a good opportunity for players such as Erik McCoy and Pete Werner to heal injuries they have been playing through. They face the Rams and Giants after the bye.

    Describe the game in two words: Taysom Time. The Saints got the full Taysom Hill experience against the Browns — he was a blocker, receiver, quarterback and running back. He scored three times but was also picked off throwing deep and fumbled near the end zone. Per ESPN Research, Taysom Hill is the first player with three rushing touchdowns, 50 receiving yards and one pass completion in a game since the Chiefs’ Ed Podolak in 1971.

    Most surprising performance: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Valdes-Scantling joined the team only a month ago but has already proved he can be the team’s explosive element with Rashid Shaheed out for the season. Valdes-Scantling has now scored three touchdowns in two games, tying the team lead in receiving touchdowns. He had a 71-yard touchdown in the first half Sunday. — Katherine Terrell

    Next game: vs. Rams (Dec. 1, 4:05 p.m. ET)

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    0:25

    Taysom Hill goes 75 yards for his 3rd TD of the game

    Taysom Hill races past the Browns defense for a 75-yard touchdown to ice the game for the Saints.


    Browns

    Do the Browns have a wide receiver corps they can build around? Jerry Jeudy had his best game of the season with a 142-yard performance (his first 100-plus-yard game since 2022). Elijah Moore delivered an acrobatic touchdown catch. And wide receiver Cedric Tillman chipped in with 47 yards. All three players are 25 or younger and have stepped up since the trade of Amari Cooper, giving the Browns something to be bullish on as they inch closer to their third losing season since Kevin Stefanski became head coach in 2020.

    Biggest hole in the game plan: Not placing more attention on Taysom Hill. The Browns talked about how mindful they would have to be of Hill and his multifaceted role. But time and time again, they lost track of or couldn’t bring down Hill, who recorded a career-high eight catches, completed a pass and ran into the end zone three times.

    Most surprising performance: Kicker Dustin Hopkins missed a pair of field goals, including a 27-yard attempt as time expired in the first half. Another missed kick was negated by a holding penalty. It was just the second time in Hopkins’ 134-game career that he missed two field goal attempts in a game. — Daniel Oyefusi

    Next game: vs. Steelers (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

    Steelers

    Was this a bad game or a bad sign for Russell Wilson? Despite a stout defensive effort to force three turnovers and two rare misses from Ravens kicker Justin Tucker, the Steelers’ offense managed only nine points on the ensuing drives — and it nearly cost them in Sunday’s 18-16 win. Wilson completed 1 of 8 attempts for minus-1 yards with an interception and four sacks when pressured. And in the the red zone, he completed just 2 of 9 attempts for 7 yards and an interception. He papered over an inefficient performance a week ago against the Commanders with a rebound fourth quarter and a game-winning moon ball to Mike Williams. But Wilson couldn’t do the same against a statistically weaker Ravens defense.

    Biggest hole in the game plan: Not getting more from the Steelers’ wide receivers. Against the league’s worst pass defense, receivers not named George Pickens struggled to get open. Pickens led all receivers with eight catches on 12 targets for 89 yards, but the rest of the receivers combined for two catches on four targets for 3 yards. At halftime, the Steelers had just 52 net passing yards.

    Most surprising performance: Chris Boswell. With the offense struggling to convert in the red zone, Boswell came through with six field goals, including three of 50 or more yards. Sunday marked Boswell’s fourth game with four or more field goals this season, matching his own franchise record set in 2017. — Brooke Pryor

    Next game: at Browns (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET)


    Ravens

    How much does this loss put a dent in the Ravens’ chances to win the AFC North? This is a major setback for the Ravens in their pursuit to become back-to-back AFC North champions. Baltimore’s chances to win the division dropped to 37%, according to ESPN Analytics. It’s difficult to believe the Ravens can overtake the Steelers when quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to struggle against them. The reigning NFL Most Valuable Player is now 1-4 against Pittsburgh after completing a season-worst 48.4% of his passes (16-of-33), which doesn’t include his desperation toss on a failed two-point conversion.

    Describe the game in two words: Uncharacteristic mistakes. The Ravens turned the ball over three times after not committing a turnover in their previous three games. The most glaring one was an interception im which Steelers linebacker Payton Wilson wrestled the ball away from running back Justice Hill. That ended a streak of 161 passes without a pick for Jackson. Two fumbles were converted into two field goals, which was the difference in the game.

    Most surprising performance: Justin Tucker. The NFL’s most accurate kicker was full of surprises. Tucker missed field goals from 47 and 50 yards in the first quarter, which marked the first time since 2022 that he had failed to convert on back-to-back attempts. — Jamison Hensley

    Next game: at Chargers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

    Colts

    Did quarterback Anthony Richardson show progress in his return to the lineup? It was not perfect, but Richardson took a step in the right direction after two weeks on the bench. He was more rhythmic in his passing, more accurate with his throws and more in command of the offense. His final numbers — 20-of-30 for 272 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions — were a mixed bag. But he didn’t turn the ball over, which had plagued him earlier in the season. The other variable of note was coach Shane Steichen’s adjusted playcalling. The offensive play selection seemed to mesh better with Richardson’s skills, including a significant increase in designed quarterback runs.

    Biggest hole in the game plan: The Colts repeatedly tried and failed to generate rushing success. The Colts could not come up with more creative run schemes to beat the Jets’ defensive front. Running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 31 yards on seven carries in the first quarter, but he was limited to 26 yards on 17 attempts the rest of the way.

    Describe the game in two words: Good enough. The Colts had lost three straight and go home to face the red-hot Lions next week. With their playoff hopes dimming and a long week of debate over their quarterback situation looming, the Colts managed to take advantage of a bad Jets team. Indianapolis still has an eye on the postseason. — Stephen Holder

    Next game: vs. Lions (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

    play

    0:20

    Anthony Richardson puts Colts ahead for good with late TD run

    Anthony Richardson runs in a touchdown with less than a minute left to lead the Colts past the Jets.


    Jets

    What happened to the Jets’ once-formidable defense? The Jets top the 25-point mark for the first time this season and what happens? Their defense, once their pride and joy, chokes it away in the final two minutes. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson marched 70 yards on six plays for the winning touchdown. The Jets looked lost on the final drive. Ditto, their final offensive possession, as quarterback Aaron Rodgers made poor decisions as time ran out. It was a brutal ending.

    Most surprising performance: For the first time in his career, running back Breece Hall scored a rushing touchdown and a receiving TD in the same game. That’s a surprise, considering he has been such a productive receiver. The offense is a lot better when Hall is heavily involved. He produced 121 yards from scrimmage, including two explosive plays — 29 yards (receiving TD) and 18 yards (running TD).

    Describe the game in two words: Fourth kicker. Anders Carlson was the Jets’ fourth kicker in four games — a franchise first. And he did OK, making both field goal attempts, including a career-long 58-yarder. He wasn’t supposed to be their kicker this week, but Spencer Shrader was unexpectedly poached from the practice squad by the Chiefs on Thursday. — Rich Cimini

    Next game: vs. Seahawks (Dec. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

    Dolphins

    Are the Dolphins officially back? With Sunday’s win over the Raiders, Miami has recorded four straight improved performances since QB Tua Tagovailoa’s return from injured reserve. Their 34 points are their most since Dec. 3 of last season. The Dolphins rank eighth in offensive expected points added over the past four weeks after ranking 31st without Tagovailoa from Weeks 3-7. If they can string two more wins together over the next two weeks, they’ll be back at .500 and firmly in the AFC playoff picture.

    Describe the game in two words: Spark lit. To paraphrase what the Dolphins have said for the past two weeks, all it takes is a spark to light a fire. With their second straight win and a favorable matchup against the Patriots coming next week, they’re on the cusp of a season-saving win streak entering the final stretch of the season.

    Early prediction for next week: Another massive workload for running back De’Von Achane. After failing to record a carry in Week 10, Raheem Mostert ran the ball three times for minus-2 yards Sunday. Meanwhile, Achane recorded 17 carries for 73 yards, as well as 32 receiving yards. Mostert’s ball security issues paved the way for Achane to take an even greater share of the backfield workload, which doesn’t appear to be changing soon. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

    Next game: vs. Patriots (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)


    Raiders

    Can the Raiders’ offense be more efficient to better protect its overworked defense? It had better. Sure, the Raiders looked better under new interim offensive coordinator Scott Turner as he called plays from the press box. But a certain lack of efficiency in stretches taxed the defense, which could not enforce physicality and get off the field against the speedy Dolphins. Familiarity should breed success for Las Vegas’ offense and there were enough glimpses of more imaginative playcalling to give the Raiders hope for the immediate future.

    Describe the game in two words: Deja-vu. The Raiders’ seemingly season-long script — a slow start followed by a rapid descent — reared its head for the umpteenth time this season. The Raiders had actually outgained Miami in total yardage in the first half before a late Dolphins flurry. And then after getting nothing to start the second half, the Dolphins scored to start their second-half surge.

    Most surprising performance: Tight end Brock Bowers going off with Michael Mayer’s return. With Mayer playing for the first time since Week 3, targets to tight ends would seemingly be at a premium, right? No. Bowers continued his Pro Bowl-level season with a career-high 13 catches for 124 yards. That was his first triple-digit receiving yards game, which included a 23-yard touchdown. — Paul Gutierrez

    Next game: vs. Broncos (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

    Lions

    Can the Lions keep overcoming injuries to key players? So far, yes. It’s next man up in Detroit. Lions captain Alex Anzalone was ruled out with a forearm injury at the start of the second half, but Detroit still dominated in his absence, scoring 50-plus points in multiple games in a season for the first time in franchise history. The Lions also lost Defensive Player of the Year candidate Aidan Hutchinson to a leg injury earlier this season, but traded for Za’Darius Smith last week, who recorded a sack in his Lions debut against Jacksonville. This Lions team has plenty of depth and has proved to be a resilient group.

    Describe the game in two words: Home dominance. Surprisingly, the Lions scored their first opening drive touchdown at home this season with a goal-line rush by David Montgomery. They never looked back. Detroit used a balanced attack to score a touchdown on seven consecutive offensive drives. The Lions are also currently outscoring opponents plus-99 (188-89) at home this season, which is the most by any team in the NFL.

    Most surprising performance: Lions quarterback Jared Goff. Typically, Goff isn’t viewed as a mobile quarterback. He’s known for efficiency and pinpoint accuracy, but his mobility was on display against Jacksonville as he rushed for 21 yards off four carries. Goff hadn’t rushed for 20 or more yards in a game since Sept. 20, 2021, at Green Bay, when he had 46. He also became the first quarterback in NFL history to have multiple games with a perfect passer rating (158.3) and 400 passing yards. He also accomplished that feat in 2018 with the Rams. — Eric Woodyard

    Next game: at Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

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    0:25

    Jameson Williams leaps into end zone on 64-yard TD

    Jared Goff hits Jameson Williams across the middle of the field, then he turns it up and scores a touchdown for the Lions.


    Jaguars

    Was this coach Doug Pederson’s last game with the Jaguars? If owner Shad Khan decides to fire Pederson and doesn’t want to wait until after the season ends, this week would be the logical time to do it. The Jaguars are 2-9 after Sunday’s embarrassing loss to the Lions — and have lost 14 of their past 17 games — entering their bye week. Quarterbacks coach Mike McCoy was a coach with the San Diego Chargers from 2013-16, so he would be the logical choice as an interim for the remainder of the season.

    Describe the game in two words: Different directions. The Jags and Lions appeared to be on similar trajectories following the 2022 season when both teams went 9-8. Jacksonville has gone in the opposite direction after an 8-3 start in 2023, and there are major holes to fill along the offensive line, at cornerback, linebacker and receiver, as well as adding another pass rusher. The talent gap between the two franchises was evident.

    Eye-popping stat: The Jaguars gave up 644 yards to the Lions, the second-most in a single game in their 30-year franchise history. Trailing only the 653 yards they allowed to Houston in 2012. Quarterback Jared Goff’s 412 passing yards is tied for the fifth-most allowed in a game in franchise history. — Mike DiRocco

    Next game: vs. Texans (Dec. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

    Eagles

    What is the Eagles’ ceiling at this point? It’s time to start viewing them as title contenders. Their past five wins were over teams with sub-.500 records, but they took down a quality Washington team on Thursday to extend their lead in the NFC East to 1½ games. The Eagles have positioned themselves to challenge the Lions for the top seed in the conference. There are tests remaining on the schedule, including tilts with the Ravens and Steelers, but the bulk of their travel is over: next week’s trip to play in Los Angeles against the Rams will be the Eagles’ last plane ride of the regular season. Philadelphia heads into the final stretch red-hot and largely healthy.

    Eye-popping stat: Rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell allowed zero receptions on one target in 32 coverage snaps as the nearest defender in coverage, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Mitchell, who was often pitted against Terry McLaurin, Washington’s top receiver, is allowing 0.9 yards per coverage snap this season, the sixth best of 44 cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps in 2024.

    Most surprising performance: The normally reliable Jake Elliott had a subpar night, missing field goal attempts from 44 and 51 yards in the first half. He followed up with a missed extra point early in the fourth quarter after the Eagles went ahead. Elliott entered the game tied for the second-highest field goal percentage (90.9%) since 2021 among NFL kickers with 80-plus attempts but has now missed five field goals this season. — Tim McManus

    Next game: at Rams (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)


    Commanders

    What has gone wrong with the offense? Coach Dan Quinn and quarterback Jayden Daniels insist the rookie signal-caller is fine physically after hurting his ribs in Week 7, but the passing game has been inconsistent the past three games. Washington has played two of the league’s best defenses in the past two games in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and the Commanders might not have enough playmakers to challenge top units. The Steelers and Eagles generated more pressure on Daniels, perhaps speeding him up and forcing him to be less accurate than he was earlier in the season. They’ve also done a good job taking away his running ability, as Daniels has rushed for 18 combined yards in the past two games.

    Biggest hole in the game plan: The inability to get the wide receivers involved, notably Terry McLaurin. McLaurin was not targeted until the third quarter — only the second time in his six-year career that he did not have a first-half target — and finished with only one catch for 10 yards. The receivers combined for four catches and 28 yards overall. Without their involvement, the offense isn’t explosive.

    Describe the game in two words: Not yet. The Commanders played tough for three quarters for the second consecutive game but surrendered a four-point lead to the Eagles in the fourth quarter on Thursday after squandering a 10-point lead to the Steelers in the final period on Sunday. Washington’s next evolutionary step is learning to close out games versus good teams. — John Keim

    Next game: vs. Cowboys (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

  • NFL Week 11 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

    The Week 11 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

    Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

    Let’s get into the full Week 11 slate, including an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Steelers and the Chiefs’ trip to Buffalo. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Texans and the Cowboys on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

    Jump to a matchup:
    BAL-PIT | GB-CHI | JAX-DET
    MIN-TEN | LV-MIA | LAR-NE
    CLE-NO | IND-NYJ | ATL-DEN
    SEA-SF | KC-BUF | CIN-LAC
    HOU-DAL

    Thursday: PHI 26, WSH 18
    Byes: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB

    1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (47.5 O/U)

    Ravens storyline to watch: In his past eight games, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 7-1, throwing 22 touchdown passes and one interception. But the Steelers have contained Jackson more than any other team. He is 1-3 against Pittsburgh and has totaled four touchdown passes and seven interceptions while getting sacked 20 times. — Jamison Hensley

    Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers are finally opening AFC North play, and they’ll do it with an offense that could give the Ravens fits. With Russell Wilson at the helm, the Steelers are averaging 230 passing yards per game and 30.3 points per game in the past three weeks. The Ravens, meanwhile, are allowing a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per game in addition to 25.3 points per game. To make matters worse, the Ravens could be without safety Kyle Hamilton (ankle). — Brooke Pryor

    Stat to know: The Ravens have allowed an NFL-high 22 completions this season on passes 20 or more yards downfield.

    Bold prediction: Steelers defensive tackle Keeanu Benton will record at least two quarterback hits. He rattled off five straight games with a quarterback hit to start the season but hasn’t had one since Week 5. He’s playing more, and his pass rush win rate is a strong 12% at defensive tackle — 11th best at the position. — Walder

    Injuries: Ravens | Steelers

    Fantasy X factor: Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. The rapport between Pickens and Wilson is undeniable. He has scored 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past three games. He faces a Ravens defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: Overs are 9-1 in Ravens games this season, which is the highest rate in the NFL. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Ravens 33, Steelers 30
    Moody’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 27
    Walder’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 22
    FPI prediction: BAL, 60.9% (by an average of 4.4 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Can the Ravens fix their league-worst pass defense? … Steelers LB Queen says Ravens didn’t want him back

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    9:53

    Who needs to win more: Lamar or Russ?

    Stephen A. Smith, Mina Kimes, Dan Orlovsky and Kimberley A. Martin debate if Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson needs a win more in their Week 11 showdown.


    1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: GB -5 (40.5 O/U)

    Packers storyline to watch: Coach Matt LaFleur and the Packers have won 10 straight against the Bears. A loss Sunday would end not only that streak but also another one: The Packers have not started 0-3 in division play since 2005, but they already have lost to the Vikings and Lions this season. The 19-year streak of avoiding an 0-3 division start is the second-longest active streak behind the Patriots, who haven’t started 0-3 in division play since 1994. — Rob Demovsky

    Bears storyline to watch: Thomas Brown takes over at offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron, who was fired Tuesday, and will call plays for a Bears offense that has gone 23 consecutive drives without a touchdown. Coach Matt Eberflus implored the offense to display more “creativity” after the Bears stumbled during a three-game losing streak during which they rank dead last in points (9.0), yards per play (3.7), third-down conversion rate (15%) and touchdowns (0). The Bears are 2-10 in NFC North games under Eberflus, whose .167 win percentage in division play is the worst in the NFL since 2022. — Courtney Cronin

    Stat to know: Quarterback Jordan Love has thrown an interception in seven straight games, which is the longest single-season streak by a Packers signal-caller since 2005 (Brett Favre, 10).

    Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will have his first QBR over 50 since Week 6. I’m betting changing to Brown as the offensive playcaller will help spark the offense — which surely has the talent to be better than it has been. — Walder

    Injuries: Packers | Bears

    Fantasy X factor: Packers tight end Tucker Kraft. He has scored 12 or more fantasy points in four of his past six games. What stands out is his ability to gain yards after the catch, where he leads the Packers. Kraft has a favorable matchup facing a Bears defense that allows the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS at home this season. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 15
    Moody’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 16
    Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Bears 20
    FPI prediction: GB, 63.5% (by an average of 4.9 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Jacobs brings ‘different dynamic’ to Packers’ backfield … QB Williams believes Bears have his back amid struggles … OC Waldron fired: What’s next for Bears, QB Williams


    1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -14 (46.5 O/U)

    Jaguars storyline to watch: Quarterback Mac Jones will make his second start for Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). Jones is coming off a game in which he threw for 111 yards, turned the ball over three times and led the Jaguars to just 143 yards of offense (the fifth-lowest total in franchise history) in a loss to Minnesota. One thing that could help is getting receiver Brian Thomas Jr. involved again. He has had four catches for 34 yards the past two weeks. — Mike DiRocco

    Lions storyline to watch: New defensive lineman Za’Darius Smith is expected to make his Lions debut against Jacksonville after being traded from Cleveland last week. Smith was not activated last Sunday to allow him to get acclimated to the organization, but he’s ready to go this week. The Lions aren’t putting pressure on him to fill the role of Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who underwent surgery to repair his fractured tibia and fibula, but to elevate the defense in his own way. “I’m not going to be looking at the stats,” coach Dan Campbell said. “I just want to know that he’s doing his job and he’s as productive as he can be in that.” — Eric Woodyard

    Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-6 this season in one-score games (decided by eight or fewer points). That’s the most such losses in the NFL.

    Bold prediction: Lions linebacker Jack Campbell will record at least 11 total tackles. Campbell ranks third among all players in run stop win rate (48.6%) and is recording a tackle or assist on 25% of opponent run plays, a very high rate. — Walder

    Injuries: Jaguars | Lions

    Fantasy X factor: Lions running back David Montgomery. He’s averaging 15.6 touches and 15.4 fantasy points per game, making him a reliable option. Also, the Jaguars’ defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs, so expect Montgomery to see plenty of action. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Jaguars can clinch the under on their win total (8.5) with a loss. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 14
    Moody’s pick: Lions 34, Jaguars 17
    Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 13
    FPI prediction: DET, 86.7% (by an average of 16.3 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Jags rule out Lawrence, hope for post-bye return … Lions TE LaPorta day-to-day with shoulder injury … Lions’ last-second win interrupted by flight announcement

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    5:29

    Should Jared Goff be out of the MVP race?

    Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky debate whether Lions QB Jared Goff should be in the MVP race after a 5-interception performance against the Texans.


    1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (39.5 O/U)

    Vikings storyline to watch: Sunday’s game will be the Vikings’ third consecutive AFC South matchup. They’ve won the first two, against the Colts and Jaguars, despite quarterback Sam Darnold committing three turnovers in each game. But their defense has forced five turnovers during that stretch, and it will be primed to generate more against a Titans offense that has committed 17 this season, tied for the third most in the league. — Kevin Seifert

    Titans storyline to watch: The Titans are well aware of the Vikings’ tenacious defense and how it confuses quarterbacks. Considering the offensive line issues and quarterback Will Levis’ inexperience, it would seem as if Tennessee is at a major disadvantage. Titans coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz said they want to make it easier for Levis to see the answers to the blitz early in the play and show Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores they have counters to his extensive blitz package. — Turron Davenport

    Stat to know: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has gone three straight games without a receiving touchdown, his longest streak this season. He has not had a four-game drought since 2022, when he went six straight games without a touchdown reception.

    Bold prediction: Titans edge Harold Landry III will record a sack. Though he has only one sack in his past five games, Landry has a 0.74-second pass rush get-off, the fifth fastest of any player with at least 100 pass rushes, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And Darnold has taken four sacks in three of his past five games. — Walder

    Injuries: Vikings | Titans

    Fantasy X factor: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley. His 25.4 fantasy points in Week 10 against a tough Chargers defense was a season high. After the DeAndre Hopkins trade to the Chiefs, Ridley has had eight or more targets in three straight games and should continue to shine against the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Vikings are 7-2 ATS in the first quarter this season, which is the best mark in the NFL. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Vikings 28, Titans 14
    Moody’s pick: Viking 24, Titans 13
    Walder’s pick: Vikings 22, Titans 16
    FPI prediction: MIN, 65.5% (by an average of 6.4 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ conundrum: QB Darnold’s aggressiveness vs. INTs


    1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7 (43.5 O/U)

    Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders will sport a new-look offense with the same quarterback, Gardner Minshew. Las Vegas fired its offensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and offensive line coach before the bye week, and pass game coordinator Scott Turner was elevated to interim OC … with an assist from a familiar face. Former Raiders coach and longtime NFL coach Norv Turner, Scott’s dad, joined the staff as an adviser. “A wealth of information,” the younger Turner said of his father, who called plays in the NFL from 1991 through 2019, with a one-year break. Minshew said: “It’s kind of the same bones, same general idea, just … a little bit different flavor.” — Paul Gutierrez

    Dolphins storyline to watch: Dolphins rookie linebacker Chop Robinson has recorded at least four pressures in each of his past three games, and he recorded a sack in each of his past two. Against a Raiders team that has allowed the fifth-most sacks in the NFL this season, Robinson and the Dolphins’ defense could replicate their performance in Week 10, when they pressured Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford 15 times. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

    Stat to know: The Raiders have not lost six straight games in a single season since 2014. They started that season with 10 consecutive losses.

    Bold prediction: Raiders running back Alexander Mattison, fresh off a zero-reception game, will record a season high in receiving yards (currently 43). Mattison ranks fifth among running backs in ESPN’s overall receiving score (72), flashing strong open and YAC scores. — Walder

    Injuries: Raiders | Dolphins

    Fantasy X factor: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He has averaged just 13.4 fantasy points per game since Week 8. But this week, Tagovailoa faces a Raiders defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS at home this season. They are 1-4 ATS as favorites. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Dolphins 24, Raiders 17
    Moody’s pick: Dolphins 28, Raiders 14
    Walder’s pick: Dolphins 26, Raiders 16
    FPI prediction: MIA, 62.4% (by an average of 5.0 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Raiders sticking with Minshew over Ridder at QB … Dolphins RT Jackson out for season after surgery … McDaniel ignores ex-player calling Dolphins ‘soft’

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    0:39

    How Fulghum is approaching Raiders-Dolphins

    Tyler Fulghum is getting creative in his two-leg teaser for Raiders vs. Dolphins.


    1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: LAR -5 (43.5 O/U)

    Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception in six straight games, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. The Patriots’ defense has grabbed only four interceptions all season, which is tied for 27th in the league. — Sarah Barshop

    Patriots storyline to watch: Veteran Yannick Ngakoue, who was claimed on waivers from the Ravens on Nov. 8, is expected to make his Patriots debut with his primary contributions coming as a pass rusher. The Patriots’ defense had its best third-down performance of the season last week, holding the Bears to a 1-of-14 success rate and hopes to continue that against a Rams offense that was 3-of-12 on third down in last week’s loss to the Dolphins. — Mike Reiss

    Stat to know: The Patriots snapped an eight-game home losing streak against the Jets in Week 8. They’re seeking consecutive home wins for the first time since November 2022.

    Bold prediction: Rams running back Kyren Williams will record 25-plus carries. The Patriots’ defense struggles to stop the run and the pass, but I expect the Rams to build a bit of a lead here and then let Williams carry them on long drives the rest of the way. They have the second-highest success rate (48%) on designed carries. — Walder

    Injuries: Rams | Patriots

    Fantasy X factor: Patriots tight end Hunter Henry. He had a disappointing Week 10 but had scored 12-plus fantasy points in three of his previous four games. Henry has built great chemistry with quarterback Drake Maye and has a favorable matchup against a Rams defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: Since 2022, the Rams are 4-1 ATS as road favorites. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Rams 29, Patriots 27
    Moody’s pick: Rams 22, Patriots 19
    Walder’s pick: Rams 27, Patriots 17
    FPI prediction: LAR, 63.5% (by an average of 5.5 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Rams CB Ramsey trade first domino in team philosophy change … Does QB Maye crack the top 10 NFL rookies list?


    1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: NO -1 (44.5 O/U)

    Browns storyline to watch: The Browns are back from their bye week, and defensive communication is a point of emphasis after Cleveland gave up a pair of deep touchdown passes in a Week 9 loss to the Chargers. It will be key against a Saints offense that rediscovered its explosive passing game from earlier in the season. New Orleans completed a season-high five passes of 20 or more yards in last week’s win over the Falcons. — Daniel Oyefusi

    Saints storyline to watch: The Saints had a late forced fumble and interception to seal a win against the Falcons last week, and they hope they can make some of those plays against former quarterback Jameis Winston, who has had five interceptions in his past four starts (two in two starts as a Saint in 2023 and three last week). The Saints heaped praise on Winston as a teammate and leader this week, but Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu, who had an interception last week, also joked, “I’m expecting a shot, first play of the game, Jameis. Throw it up there.” — Katherine Terrell

    Stat to know: A loss for the Saints will be the franchise’s worst 11-game start to a season since 2005, when they also went 3-8.

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    0:38

    What Fulghum expects from Browns-Saints

    Tyler Fulghum breaks down why he expects the new coach bounce to wear off for the Saints when they face the Browns in Week 11.

    Bold prediction: Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore will have 60-plus receiving yards. He had nine targets a week ago and managed only 28 yards, but I expect that target volume to still be there, especially since he might often draw Alontae Taylor, who has allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap this season (third most among slot corners), per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

    Injuries: Browns | Saints

    Fantasy X factor: Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman. Cleveland is coming off a bye with Winston back under center and Tillman as his No. 1 target. The pair will be up against a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts. Tillman has been consistent, scoring 18-plus fantasy points in each of his past three games and racking up 10-plus targets in two of those. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their past six games (they covered last week). Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Browns 22, Saints 20
    Moody’s pick: Browns 27, Saints 24
    Walder’s pick: Browns 30, Saints 23
    FPI prediction: CLE, 50.0% (by an average of 0.1 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Browns GM noncommittal on Watson’s future in Cleveland … How Saints’ salary cap math could impact Carr, veterans … LT Wills: ‘Business decision’ to sit out game backfired


    1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NYJ -4 (43.5 O/U)

    Colts storyline to watch: Quarterback Anthony Richardson returns to the lineup for the Colts, and that could be a boost for Indy’s run game. In the five full games Richardson played this season, the Colts averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 142.4 rushing yards per game and had 28 rushes of 10 yards or longer. The Colts recorded seven of their nine total rushing touchdowns in those five games. Meanwhile, running back Jonathan Taylor has four 100-yard performances in just seven games this season. — Stephen Holder

    Jets storyline to watch: The Jets, who missed 20 tackles in last week’s blowout loss to the Cardinals, put a major emphasis on tackling fundamentals in practice. Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich, a former NFL linebacker, gave a tackling presentation to the entire team (yes, even offense). They also practiced in pads more than usual. In the past five games, the Jets have allowed 501 yards after contact, ranking 31st over that span. — Rich Cimini

    Stat to know: Jets wide receiver Davante Adams’ 51% catch percentage is the second worst in the NFL since Week 7 among pass catchers with a minimum of 25 targets.

    Bold prediction: Richardson will break off a 30-plus-yard run and lead the Colts to victory. Richardson certainly comes with his fair share of variance, but that can work in Indianapolis’ favor, too. And you can usually count on the Jets to beat themselves. — Walder

    Injuries: Colts | Jets

    Fantasy X factor: Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He hasn’t delivered the fantasy season that managers were hoping for, with just two games with more than 20 fantasy points. However, Rodgers has a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that allows the seventh-most passing yards per game and the fifth-highest completion percentage. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Colts 21, Jets 14
    Moody’s pick: Jets 24, Colts 17
    Walder’s pick: Colts 23, Jets 17
    FPI prediction: NYJ, 59.2% (by an average of 3.7 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Colts bench Flacco, turn back to Richardson at QB … Inside Rodgers’ complicated relationship with the Jets … How does Ulbrich compare to Saleh?


    4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DEN -2.5 (44.5 O/U)

    Falcons storyline to watch: The Falcons allow the highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks in the league (70.3%), are tied for worst in quarterback pressure percentage (27.4%) and have the fewest sacks (9). Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has fared much better while not under pressure — completing 70.2%, vs. 43.9% when under duress. — Marc Raimondi

    Broncos storyline to watch: The Falcons will be the fourth offense currently ranked in the top 10 that the Broncos have faced this season. Two times (against Tampa and Kansas City), Denver’s defense made life fairly miserable for those offenses, and one offense (Baltimore) put together seven scoring drives. — Jeff Legwold

    Stat to know: Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is seeking to avoid having consecutive games without a passing touchdown for the first time in his career as a starter.

    Bold prediction: The Broncos’ defense will score a touchdown. Atlanta’s offense versus Denver’s defense is a strength-on-strength battle, but the Broncos’ defense, which is fourth in EPA per play, is especially good against the pass. — Walder

    Injuries: Falcons | Broncos

    Fantasy X factor: Nix. The rookie is clearly in full command, and coach Sean Payton continues to impress as a playcaller. Nix has been a reliable fantasy performer, scoring 16 or more points in five of his past six games, including three with 20-plus points. The Falcons give up the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Falcons are 3-1 ATS on the road this season after going 2-7 ATS on the road last season. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Falcons 24, Broncos 22
    Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Falcons 21
    Walder’s pick: Broncos 20, Falcons 17
    FPI prediction: ATL, 58.1% (by an average of 2.7 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Falcons back kicker Koo despite 3 missed field goals in loss … Rookie RB Estime could be spark for Broncos’ backfield … Falcons need better starts … Tough loss to Chiefs shows Broncos’ limited margin for error


    4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: SF -6.5 (45.5 O/U)

    Seahawks storyline to watch: The tables have turned on an NFC West rivalry the Seahawks used to dominate. They’ve lost six straight regular-season and playoff games to the 49ers by a combined score of 184-96, including a 36-24 defeat in Week 6 that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Seattle could have several key players available Sunday who didn’t play in the first meeting, such as Abraham Lucas, Byron Murphy II, Riq Woolen and trade acquisition Ernest Jones IV. — Brady Henderson

    49ers storyline to watch: Christian McCaffrey’s return last week helped him knock some rust off before facing a team against which he has had great success. McCaffrey has averaged 163 scrimmage yards per game in six meetings with Seattle and reached 125 in all. If he gets to 125 again Sunday, he’d tie Jim Brown (vs. Philadelphia) as the only player in NFL history to post 125-plus scrimmage yards against one team seven consecutive times. — Nick Wagoner

    Stat to know: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is 8-2 in his career against division opponents and has a 76.7 QBR in those games. That’s the second-highest QBR by any quarterback since the metric was introduced in 2006 (minimum of 10 starts).

    Bold prediction: Jones will record a sack. He’s a great blitzer but wasn’t used to rushing the passer much in Tennessee. Last week he recorded a season-high 10 pass rushes, and I expect coach Mike Macdonald will want to keep deploying him like that. — Walder

    Injuries: Seahawks | 49ers

    Fantasy X factor: Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III. He has seen a dip in fantasy production lately. However, the 49ers allowed a combined 36.7 fantasy points to Buccaneers running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving in Week 10, showing vulnerability to the run. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The 49ers are 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS in five meetings since 2022. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 24
    Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Seahawks 20
    Walder’s pick: 49ers 29, Seahawks 27
    FPI prediction: SF, 69.1% (by an average of 6.9 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Seahawks activate Lucas from PUP, put Fant on IR … McCaffrey’s return has 49ers returning to roots … Seahawks waive leading tackler Dodson in ILB shake-up … 49ers’ Lenoir gets 5-year, $92M extension


    4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -2 (45.5 O/U)

    Chiefs storyline to watch: In seven career games against the Chiefs, counting three in the playoffs, quarterback Josh Allen has 16 touchdown passes, three interceptions and a QBR of 74. Are the Chiefs capable of keeping him from another big game this time, even if Allen is throwing to a group of receivers depleted by injuries? In the past two weeks, the Chiefs put up little resistance against Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield and Denver’s Bo Nix. — Adam Teicher

    Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills’ defense continue to limit the Chiefs’ offense in the regular season? The Bills have held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per game in four regular-season meetings since 2020. Taking the ball away is a point of emphasis for this defense and could be the key to success. The Bills have 12 straight games with at least one takeaway, the second-longest active streak in the NFL after the Lions (13). — Alaina Getzenberg

    Stat to know: The Bills have won five straight games; Buffalo’s plus-61 scoring margin during the win streak is the third highest by any team in the NFL over that span, trailing only the Lions (plus-91) and the Eagles (plus-82)

    Bold prediction: Bills cornerback Christian Benford will pick off quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Benford is playing great this season. In fact, no outside cornerback has allowed fewer yards per coverage snap (0.6) than he has, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Part of that is because he’s allowing fewer targets than average (13%), but it’s also that he has a minus-9% completion percentage allowed over expectation. — Walder

    Injuries: Chiefs | Bills

    Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. Kansas City is first in time of possession (33:01), which means we should see a lot of Hunt. He has had 20-plus touches in each of his past four games, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in three of them. The Bills’ defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their past four conference games. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Bills 29, Chiefs 27
    Moody’s pick: Bills 25, Chiefs 23
    Walder’s pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 17
    FPI prediction: BUF, 53.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)

    Matchup must-reads: All the strange — and lucky — ways the Chiefs have gone 9-0 … Bills’ offensive stars called these plays for themselves — here’s how they worked out


    8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: LAC -1.5 (47.5 O/U)

    Bengals storyline to watch: Can quarterback Joe Burrow keep attacking split-safety looks? This season, Burrow has the fifth-highest yards per attempt (8.4) against those safety shells, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The Chargers use the split-safety formation on 58.1% of opponent dropbacks, the second-highest clip in the league. — Ben Baby

    Chargers storyline to watch: Sunday will be the first big test for the Chargers’ defense, which ranks first in the NFL in points allowed per game (13.1). The Bengals are one of the NFL’s best offenses, averaging the sixth-most points per game this year (26.1). — Kris Rhim

    Stat to know: A win for the Bengals would increase their chances of making the playoffs from 37% to 52%, according to ESPN Analytics.

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    2:04

    Jim Harbaugh to McAfee: Justin Herbert is one of the best of all time

    Jim Harbaugh talks to Pat McAfee about what makes his Chargers team special, starting with Justin Herbert.

    Bold prediction: Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston will record 80-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. That’s because he will most often line up in front of Cam Taylor-Britt. The Bengals cornerback has allowed 2.0 yards per coverage snap this year, second most among his position, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

    Injuries: Bengals | Chargers

    Fantasy X factor: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have leaned more on Herbert and the passing game after the bye. He has had 30 or more pass attempts in three of his past five games. It’s important to note that Herbert has scored at least 19 fantasy points in three consecutive games. The Bengals allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road, while the Chargers are 4-0 ATS at home this season. Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Bengals 25, Chargers 23
    Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Bengals 23
    Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Chargers 24
    FPI prediction: LAC, 52.1% (by an average of 0.9 points)

    Matchup must-reads: Childhood photo links Zac Taylor, Jim Harbaugh before Bengals-Chargers … Do the Chargers have the NFL’s best defense? We’re about to find out … Bengals coach to advocate over potential late hits of Joe Burrow


    Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: HOU -7.5 (47.5 O/U)

    Texans storyline to watch: The Texans are averaging 119 rushing yards per game, fueled by running back Joe Mixon, who has the third-highest average per game (98.3). The Cowboys are allowing 152.1 rushing yards per game, so this could lead to a huge night from Mixon. Also, wideout Nico Collins (hamstring) returns this week after missing the past five games, which should open up more running lanes for Mixon. — DJ Bien-Aime

    Cowboys storyline to watch: Can the second week of Cooper Rush as the starting quarterback be better than the first? He averaged 1.96 yards per attempt last week against the Eagles, so it needs to be. The Cowboys are looking for their first win of the season at AT&T Stadium (0-4) .They have had three home losses by at least 25 points, matching the most in team history. The Cowboys have not lost five straight home games since 2015, when they finished 4-12. — Todd Archer

    Stat to know: The Texans’ 15 takeaways since Week 6 leads the NFL. Houston produced only three takeaways over Weeks 1-5.

    Bold prediction: The Cowboys will fail to cross midfield in the first half even with the sun having already set. Instead, their biggest problem will be themselves. And part of the equation here is that Houston will run all over them and own time of possession, barely giving Rush much time to work anyway. — Walder

    Injuries: Texans | Cowboys

    Fantasy X factor: Mixon. Houston’s passing game could get a boost with Collins back, but the Cowboys’ defense remains vulnerable against the run. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, and its defensive front ranks 30th in run stop win rate (27.1%). See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

    Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight straight). Read more.

    Kahler’s pick: Texans 30, Cowboys 9
    Moody’s pick: Texans 28, Cowboys 17
    Walder’s pick: Texans 30, Cowboys 6
    FPI prediction: HOU, 71.1% (by an average of 8.3 points)

    Matchup must-reads: How bad is Cowboys’ offense? Worst start in McCarthy’s career … What Prescott’s season-ending surgery would mean for Cowboys