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It is a short week for some NFL teams looking to make their final push toward the postseason.
The Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens all play on Christmas Day, with the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears playing on Thursday night.
Week 15 saw the standings for the playoffs get a bit tighter. The sixth and seventh seeds in the AFC still need to be determined, while the Green Bay Packers clinched a playoff berth in the NFC with the Washington Commanders hoping they could close things out and clinch a wild-card spot as well. The NFC South and West divisions still need to be determined as well.
The Bills are still the top team in the NFL, and two wins coupled with two Chiefs losses in the final two weeks of the season would give them home field advantage in the playoffs.
Read below to see how the rest of the power rankings shake out after Week 15.
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1. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook runs with the ball for a touchdown against the New England Patriots during the first half at Highmark Stadium.(Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images)
The Bills didn’t play great against the Patriots on Sunday but still managed to find a way to win. Their regular season is going great, but this team will be judged solely on what happens in the postseason, so that’s all that matters now.
Last week: 1
2. Detroit Lions (13-2)
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) celebrates a touchdown against the Chicago Bears with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) and wide receiver Tim Patrick during the first half at Soldier Field in Chicago on Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024.(IMAGN)
Jared Goff in the cold was a nightmare waiting to happen, yet he might have turned in his most impressive performance of the season. Goff is on the outside looking in, but he most definitely deserves to be probably third in the MVP rankings behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. This team’s offense is too scary.
Last week: 4
3. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates with quarterback Patrick Mahomes after Mahomes’ touchdown against the Houston Texans during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.(Denny Medley-Imagn Images)
Kansas City is one win away from securing home-field advantage in the playoffs after another one-possession win, albeit one that felt a bit more comfortable than their other squeakers this year. By all accounts, the Chiefs look like they’re peaking late just in time again after walking on water all year.
Last week: 3
4. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson celebrates after catching a touchdown pass against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field.(Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images)
Sam Darnold is over his brief slump and Justin Jefferson is looking like his OPOY self. They wrap up their season against the Packers and Lions, so we’ll see where they truly stand. They are riding high after a huge win in a swamp in Seattle.
Last week: 5
5. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley stands on the field during a timeout against the Washington Commanders during the third quarter at Northwest Stadium.(Geoff Burke-Imagn Images)
The Eagles were one late DeVonta Smith catch away from sealing the game despite quarterback Jalen Hurts leaving the game in the first quarter with a concussion. Instead, the Eagles couldn’t put the game away and became the second team to lose a game despite their defense forcing five turnovers. The Eagles’ 20-game winning streak was snapped with the loss, and their hopes of getting the 1 seed in the NFC is now highly unlikely. The biggest story for the rest of the regular season in Philadelphia is the health of Hurts.
Last week: 2
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) runs for a gain defended by Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Patrick Queen in the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium.(Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images)
Lamar Jackson remains in the NFL MVP conversation. The two-time MVP threw three touchdowns in the 34-17 victory over the Steelers to help Baltimore clinch a playoff berth. The Ravens now turn their focus to the Houston Texans for a Christmas Day game.
Last week: 7
7. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs runs for a first down against the New Orleans Saints, Monday, December 23, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.(IMAGN)
Their defense posted the first shutout in the entire NFL on Monday night. It’s not their fault they play in a stacked division, but Sunday afternoon in Minnesota could prove just where this team stands among their peers.
Last week: 6
8. Washington Commanders (10-5)
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels celebrates after throwing the game-winning touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Northwest Stadium.(Peter Casey-Imagn Images)
Despite turning the ball over five times, the Washington Commanders still managed to win. Quarterback Jayden Daniels overcame two interceptions, including one late in the fourth quarter, and threw five touchdowns in the team’s comeback win. If the Commanders win next week, they will have secured a playoff spot in head coach Dan Quinn’s first season with the team. With the unexpected success the Commanders have had this season, Quinn is a front-runner for Coach of the Year and Daniels is the front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Last week: 10
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
Roquan Smith tackles Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium.(Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images)
The Steelers seem to be feeling the impact of not having wide receiver George Pickens. Pittsburgh’s offense has averaged less than 250 total yards during Pickens’ three-game absence. While Pickens is not the sole reason the Steelers’ offense has struggled recently, his eventual return to the lineup could provide a boost.
Last week: 8
10. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert throws against the Denver Broncos during the second half at SoFi Stadium.(Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images)
Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert needed a statement win, and they got it with an explosive performance against Denver. It’s not the big-fish win the Chargers were looking for against the Chiefs, but it’s a good step for their confidence as they prepare for the playoffs as underdogs.
Last week: 13
11. Houston Texans (9-6)
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud reacts after an injury to wide receiver Tank Dell (not pictured) during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.(Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)
The Texans will have to turn around in a short week and go up against the Ravens. Losing Tank Dell isn’t going to help matters.
Last week: 9
12. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) celebrates his touchdown with teammates during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium.(Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)
It wasn’t pretty in East Rutherford for Matthew Stafford & Co., but a win is a win for these Rams as they pushed their win streak to four games. It was a crucial win as they moved into first place in the NFC West with two weeks to play. With the Cardinals and Seahawks, the teams right below them in the division, coming to town in Weeks 17 and 18, respectively, the Rams control their own destiny moving forward.
Last week: 14
13. Denver Broncos (9-6)
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix throws against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium.(Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images)
Denver fans will have to sweat a little bit this Christmas after the Broncos blew a shot to clinch a playoff spot, as their highly respected defense crumbled in Los Angeles. Now, the Broncos have to beat the Bengals to avoid a massive collapse.
Last week: 11
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield walks off the field after the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.(Tim Heitman-Imagn Images)
That was a terribly costly loss at Dallas that knocked them from atop the NFC South.
Last week: 12
15. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith walks off the field after the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Lumen Field.(Steven Bisig-Imagn Images)
Another week, another tough opponent for Seattle as they fell to the Vikings, 27-24, at home in a critical loss with the Rams overtaking them for the top of the division. But with a beatable Bears team upcoming on Thursday night, a win could put Seattle in a great position heading into Week 18, when a meeting with the Rams could determine who takes the divisional crown.
Last week: 15
16. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. celebrates after a victory over the New York Giants at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.(Brett Davis-Imagn Images)
The Michael Penix Jr. era has begun in earnest, and it only took one week to put the Falcons atop their division.
Last week: 19
17. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (1) and wide receiver Tee Higgins celebrate a Higgins touchdown reception in the first quarter on Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024.(IMAGN)
The Bengals got off to a slow start this season, but Joe Burrow has gone on to put together an MVP-caliber season. Cincinnati secured its seventh win of the season this past week. The Bengals host the Denver Broncos this Saturday and will have to secure a victory if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Last week: 18
18. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa looks on before the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Hard Rock Stadium.(Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)
The Dolphins played with more heart on Sunday against the 49ers than they had arguably all season, and it kept their very slim playoff hopes alive. Mike McDaniel might be coaching for his job, so it’s a good sign that the players rallied behind him for a win over a talented 49ers team.
Last week: 20
19. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush reacts after a play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second quarter at AT&T Stadium.(Tim Heitman-Imagn Images)
The Cowboys were officially eliminated from playoff contention before their game against the Buccaneers began, but that didn’t stop them from putting together a win. Cooper Rush had another efficient game, finding wide receiver CeeDee Lamb early and often. The defense forced two clutch turnovers late to help seal the game. The question for the Cowboys is does this late-season surge mean head coach Mike McCarthy is going to keep his job for another season?
Last week: 22
20. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Calais Campbell (93) hits San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy on a pass attempt during second half at Hard Rock Stadium.(Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images)
The 49ers were already eliminated from playoff contention, but they fell for the second straight week, this time to a Dolphins team gunning for a spot in the AFC playoff race. San Francisco will finish their season against the Lions on Monday night, followed by the Cardinals in Week 18.
Last week: 17
21. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is shown during the second half against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.(Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images)
Jonathan Gannon’s group knew just how badly they needed to win on Sunday in Carolina against a beatable Panthers squad. But Bryce Young and the Panthers pulled out the upset. At 7-8 on the year, the Cardinals are officially eliminated from playoff contention, though they can play spoiler in Week 17 by defeating the Rams.
Last week: 16
22. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor celebrates as he leaves the field after defeating the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium.(IMAGN)
The Colts’ win over the Titans keeps them in the race for the playoffs. Though chances are slim, it will be interesting to see if they can produce two wins to keep some faith.
Last week: 21
23. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard scores a touchdown during the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium.(Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images)
They eliminated Arizona but hurt their draft slot. It’s been that kind of year.
Last week: 26
24. Chicago Bears (4-11)
Detroit Lions linebacker Al-Quadin Muhammad sacks Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams during the second half on Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024.(IMAGN)
Nobody expected a win against Detroit, but they had the home-field advantage with the cold weather and couldn’t do much. It’s now a nine-game losing streak for a team that looked like they were making noise. And just when it looked like they were getting out of the funk, although Keenan Allen and DJ Moore are putting up numbers, they aren’t putting themselves in positions to succeed.
Last week: 24
25. New York Jets (4-11)
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is shown during a play where it appeared he got injured on Sunday.(IMAGN)
The Jets couldn’t back up their offensive explosion in Week 15 and instead scored only 9 points against the Los Angeles Rams. The team seems to be coming apart at the seams, especially with star receiver Garrett Wilson taking some of his gripes public. This season can’t end soon enough for New York.
Last week: 25
26. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
Green Bay Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon (25) forces a fumble by New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler (18) during the second quarter of their game at Lambeau Field.(IMAGN)
They’ve been limping along without their starting quarterback, and now Alvin Kamara is missing games, so they’ve really got no shot to compete.
Last week: 23
27. New England Patriots (3-12)
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws a pass under pressure in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium.(Mark Konezny-Imagn Images)
The Patriots currently have the second pick in the NFL Draft based on their record and the tie-breaking procedures. You could make the case that the race for the top pick in the draft is just as exciting as the race for the playoffs, and the Pats are right in the thick of it for the former, but definitely not the latter.
Last week: 28
28. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
Indianapolis Colts defensive end Kwity Paye sacks Tennessee Titans quarterback Mason Rudolph during the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium.(Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images)
The Titans have to go back to the drawing board and invest in some defense. A 24-point second quarter is unacceptable at this point of the season. The offseason can’t come soon enough.
Last week: 30
29. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers carries the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first half at Allegiant Stadium.(Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
The Raiders got their third win and may have paid the price with a massive drop in draft positioning. Only time will tell how important or detrimental their win against Jacksonville will be for their future.
Last week: 31
30. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Cleveland Browns quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (17) fumbles the ball as he’s wrapped up by Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Joseph Ossai in the fourth quarter at Paycor Stadium.(IMAGN)
Dorian Thompson-Robison failed to provide a spark for the Cleveland Browns offense. The second-year quarterback threw two more interceptions in a lopsided loss to the Bengals. The Browns will likely attempt to find a solution at the quarterback position in the offseason.
Last week: 27
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
Las Vegas Raiders cornerback Darnay Holmes (30) looks to knock the ball away from Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. during the second quarter at Allegiant Stadium.(Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images)
The Jaguars’ loss helped their own draft position. It’s been a rough year for Jacksonville, and it’s just getting tougher.
Last week: 29
32. New York Giants (2-13)
New York Giants quarterback Drew Lock (2) is sacked by Atlanta Falcons linebacker Arnold Ebiketie (17) in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.(Brett Davis-Imagn Images)
The Giants control their own destiny. Normally, when you say a team controls their own destiny, you are referring to a team’s playoff chances, but for the Giants, they control their own destiny regarding the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. With the Giants’ 10th consecutive loss on Sunday, a new franchise record, and the Raiders winning, the Giants are in sole possession of the No. 1 pick. The only fear for Giants fans is if the Eagles rest their starters in Week 18, potentially leaving the door open for a win that would ruin their pick.
Last week: 32
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The Fox News Digital Sports NFL power rankings were compiled by the Fox News Digital Sports staff and the OutKick.com staff.
Fantasy Football este totul despre meciuri. Chiar dacă ți-ai pregătit echipa cu anumite speranțe și intenții, deciziile tale săptămânale de formație nu ar trebui să fie determinate de ordinea în care ți-ai ales jucătorii. Trebuie să verifici cine joacă jucătorii tăi și să te asiguri că ai băieții potriviți în – – și băieții nepotriviți.
Este prea devreme pentru a fi absolut siguri care confruntări vor fi ușoare și care vor fi dure, dar putem lua niște presupuneri educate bazate pe personal sănătos, scheme defensive, antecedente și detalii cheie ale infracțiunilor. Lucrurile pe care le știm ne pot ajuta să minimizăm impactul lucrurilor pe care nu le știm. Acest lucru ar trebui să conducă la luarea unor decizii mai bune.
Vom parcurge fiecare joc și vom evidenția jucătorii care nu sunt evidente care pornesc și stau (pentru că nu trebuie să vi se spună să începeți Derrick Henry). Ar trebui să vă simțiți mai confortabil să începeți sau să așezați jucători pe baza informațiilor oferite și să vă simțiți confortabil cu formația dvs. Fantasy înainte de începerea jocurilor este cel mai bun sentiment din lume.
Mai mult conținut din Săptămâna 17:
Atacul lui Kansas City are o mulțime de jucători solidi care merită timp de joc, dar Xavier Worthy a fost cel care a produs cele mai multe puncte Fantasy (16,6 PPR per joc) și a obținut cele mai multe atingeri printre non-RB (8,3 pe joc) peste ultimele trei săptămâni. În special, adâncimea medie a aruncării (ADOT) a lui Worthy a scăzut sub 9,0 metri în fiecare dintre ultimele sale trei jocuri, făcându-l o țintă mai ușoară mai aproape de linia de joc. Asta i-a redus capturile explozive, dar este încă la câțiva metri după amenințarea prin captură, cu mai multe ținte din zona roșie și din zona finală decât (înghițit) Travis Kelce. El se va confrunta cu aceeași apărare a lui Steelers care s-a străduit să țină pasul cu receptorul neîncrezător Zay Flowers sâmbăta trecută și cu DeVonta Smith în săptămâna 15. Ar trebui să fii încurajat de rata țintă pe traseu a lui Worthy de 24,2% împotriva unui om-la- man de acoperire, pe care apărarea Steelers s-a sprijinit în șapte jocuri de la săptămâna lor de pază. Nu m-aș sfia să mă sprijin pe Worthy ca joc flexibil săptămâna aceasta, în orice format.
Începerile evidente: Travis Kelce
ÎNCEPE: Patrick Mahomes (start low-end), George Pickens (nr. 2 WR), Chiefs DST
SĂSĂ: Russell Wilson, Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Pat Freiermuth, Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine, Calvin Austin, Steelers DST
Pierderea veteranului gardian Shaq Mason este o altă problemă importantă pentru o linie O texană care a fost o slăbiciune pentru echipă tot sezonul. A influențat chiar și modul în care funcționează CJ Stroud — anul trecut a fost sfidător împotriva grăbirilor de trecere, anul acesta este puțin mai tentativ și se vede în rata de finalizare de 47% și ratingul QB de 74,9 când este presat. Absența lui Mason se va simți și în jocul de alergare, care a fost o mizerie pentru texani de când Joe Mixon s-a rănit la gleznă. Acesta este tocmai la timp pentru o confruntare de coșmar împotriva Ravens, care se laudă cu o medie de 3,5 în cursă și o rată de 5,7% de a permite mai mult de 10 jocuri în curte în sezon. Ei au, de asemenea, o cursă feroce de trecere care a obținut 19 sacuri la o rată de presiune de 37,9% în ultimele șase jocuri. Luați în considerare accidentarea de la sfârșitul sezonului a lui Tank Dell și este greu să fiți cu adevărat entuziasmați pentru orice jucător texan în afara lui Nico Collins.
ÎNCEPE: Joe Mixon (nr. 2 RB), Mark Andrews, Ravens DST, Dalton Schultz (începător low-end)
FLEX: Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman
SĂSĂ: CJ Stroud, John Metchie, Isaiah Likely, Robert Woods, Dare Ogunbowale, cel mai nou texan Diontae Johnson, Texans DST
ÎNCEPE: Caleb Williams, Geno Smith (începător la limită), Zach Charbonnet (atâta timp cât Ken Walker este eliminat), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (top-15 WR), Keenan Allen, DJ Moore (nr. 2 PPR WR), D'Andre Swift , Seahawks DST
Începerile evidente: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
ÎNCEPE: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton (nr. 1 WR)
SĂSĂ: Javonte Williams (disperare RB), Audric Estime, Adam Trautman, Andrei Iosivas, Devaughn Vele, Mike Gesicki, Bengals DST (limită DST), Broncos DST
Începerile evidente: De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill (nr. 2 WR)
ÎNCEPE: Jerome Ford (nr. 2 RB), Jonnu Smith, David Njoku, Dolphins DST
SĂSĂ: Tua Tagovailoa (începător la limită), Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jerry Jeudy, Malik Washington, Elijah Moore, Raheem Mostert, D'Onta Foreman, Browns DST
Începerile evidente: Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown
Dacă citiți asta, probabil că înseamnă că ați ajuns la meciul de campionat, așa că felicitări. Acum, să terminăm treaba.
Săptămâna 17 este puțin ciudată, cu două meciuri de miercuri, un joc de joi și trei jocuri de sâmbătă. Va trebui să te asiguri că echipa ta este corectă, cu o mulțime de părți în mișcare atunci când vine vorba de accidentări.
De exemplu, George Pickens (ischio-coarda) ar putea reveni pentru meciul de miercuri împotriva Kansas City, dar Justice Hill (conmoție) ar putea fi eliminat la Houston. Din păcate, știm că Tank Dell (genunchi) este scos pentru restul sezonului.
Kenneth Walker III (gleznă) ar putea rata meciul de joi de la Chicago, ceea ce este evident un impuls uriaș pentru Zach Charbonnet. Și, pentru sâmbătă, vom aștepta actualizări despre James Conner (genunchi) la Rams, Jaleel McLaughlin (cvadriceps) la Cincinnati și, eventual, dacă JK Dobbins (genunchi) se poate întoarce din rezerva accidentată la New England.
Alte accidentări de monitorizat pentru duminică și luni includ situația de quarterback din Philadelphia cu Jalen Hurts (comoție) și Kenny Pickett (coaste) și situația de fundaș din Cleveland cu Jameis Winston (umăr) și Dorian Thompson-Robinson (vițel). Evident, ne-ar plăcea să vedem Hurts împotriva Dallas și Winston împotriva Miami.
De asemenea, trebuie să urmărim ce se întâmplă cu Alvin Kamara (inghinal) vs. Las Vegas și, Isaac Guerendo (ischio-coarda) vs. Detroit la running back, Drake London (ischio-coarbe) la Washington și Jaylen Waddle (genunchi) la Cleveland la receptor, și David Njoku (genunchi) vs. Miami și Cade Otton (genunchi) vs. Carolina la tight end.
Sper că ai avansat cu o listă sănătoasă, dar s-ar putea să fie nevoie să faci câteva ajustări pentru jocul de campionat din Săptămâna 17. Și de aceea ești aici.
Mult succes cu mișcările tale de renunțare. Și mult succes cu formațiile tale în Săptămâna 17.
Nota editorului: Pentru această coloană de renunțare, ne uităm în principal la jucători înscriși în mai puțin de 65% din ligile CBS Sports.
Verificați dacă sunt disponibile în ligile superficiale: Caleb Williams (72 la sută înregistrat), Anthony Richardson (72 la sută) și Geno Smith (71 la sută). Williams a marcat cel puțin 18,1 puncte Fantasy în trei din ultimele sale cinci jocuri, inclusiv trei ieșiri cu cel puțin 26,8 puncte. Îmi place de el ca titular de nivel scăzut în Săptămâna 17 împotriva Seattle. … Richardson a marcat 22,2 puncte Fantasy în Săptămâna 16 împotriva Tennessee și acum a alergat pentru cel puțin 46 de yarzi în patru jocuri la rând, inclusiv trei touchdown-uri în grabă în acea perioadă. Merită să fie folosit ca starter low-end în Săptămâna 17 la Giants. … Smith a marcat 27,4 puncte Fantasy în Săptămâna 16 împotriva Minnesota, care a fost primul său meci cu mai mult de 20 de puncte din Săptămâna 9. Ar trebui să aibă șansa pentru o altă ieșire de calitate în Săptămâna 17 la Chicago, care este un plus.
Verificați dacă sunt disponibile în ligile superficiale: Jaylen Warren (77 la sută înregistrate), Javonte Williams (76 la sută), Tank Bigsby (74 la sută), Alexander Mattison (72 la sută), JK Dobbins (71 la sută) și Kendre Miller (69 la sută). Warren a marcat 14,2 puncte PPR în săptămâna 16 la Baltimore și a marcat cel puțin 9,2 puncte PPR în șase din ultimele șapte jocuri. Le va fi greu pentru Steelers să alerge pe Chiefs în săptămâna 17, așa că Warren ar putea ajuta în jocul de pase. Și are cel puțin patru capturi în trei din ultimele șase jocuri. … Williams a marcat 12,3 puncte PPR în săptămâna 16 la Chargers cu McLaughlin în afara, iar Williams a avut șapte capturi pentru 29 de metri pe 11 ținte. El ar putea fi o opțiune flexibilă în săptămâna 17 la Bengals, mai ales dacă McLaughlin este din nou eliminat. … Bigsby a marcat un touchdown în săptămâna 16 la Las Vegas, dar a pierdut și un balon și a terminat cu 10,1 puncte PPR. Acum a marcat un touchdown în două dintre ultimele trei jocuri ale sale, inclusiv în Săptămâna 14 la Tennessee, când a avut 18 porturi pentru 55 de metri și o capturare pentru 7 metri pe o singură țintă. El se confruntă din nou cu Titanii în săptămâna 17 și merită să fie folosit ca flex. … Mattison a avut un total de 16 atingeri (patru prinderi pe șapte ținte) în primul joc fără Sincere McCormick (gleznă) în Săptămâna 16 împotriva Jacksonville și acum se confruntă cu Saints în Săptămâna 17. Mattison va continua să împartă porturile cu Ameer Abdullah, dar Mattison merită să fie folosit ca flex la New Orleans. … Dobbins s-ar putea întoarce din rezerva accidentată în săptămâna 17 la New England, iar dacă se va întâmpla asta, merită să înceapă ca alergător nr. 2 în toate ligile. El a ratat ultimele patru meciuri din cauza unei accidentări la genunchi. … Miller a fost rău în săptămâna 16 la Green Bay, cu opt porturi pentru 15 yarzi și două capturi pentru 16 yarzi pe două ținte, dar toți Sfinții au fost îngrozitori luni seara. Ei au o confruntare mai bună în Săptămâna 17 împotriva Las Vegas, iar Miller poate fi un flexibil dacă Kamara rămâne eliminat.
Verificați dacă sunt disponibile în ligile superficiale: Adam Thielen (79 la sută listat), Josh Downs (78 la sută), Romeo Doubs (66 la sută și Rome Odunze (65 la sută). Thielen a marcat cel puțin 15,3 puncte PPR în trei din ultimele patru jocuri ale sale, inclusiv 23,9 puncte PPR în Săptămâna 13 împotriva Tampa Bay El joacă din nou cu Buccaneers în săptămâna 17, iar Thielen ar trebui considerat titular în toate ligile. … Downs a avut trei capturi pentru 61 de metri și un touchdown la patru ținte în săptămâna 16 împotriva Tennessee, iar acum a marcat cel puțin 12 puncte PPR în cinci din ultimele șapte jocuri. Are o confruntare favorabilă în săptămâna 17 la Giants , iar Downs ar trebui să fie considerat un receptor al 3-lea Fantasy în toate ligile… Doubs a avut un joc liniștit luni seară împotriva New Orleans cu două capturi pentru 20 iarzi pe trei ținte, dar nu a fost nevoie de el într-o victorie în exploatare săptămâna, se pare că Odunze este la un pas de un joc mare și a avut patru capturi pentru 77 de metri pe șapte ținte în săptămâna 16 împotriva Detroit. Are cel puțin șase ținte în opt din ultimele nouă meciuri ale sale și ar putea fi primitorul numărul 3 Fantasy în ligi mai profunde în săptămâna 17 împotriva Seattle.
Adăugați în această ordine:
Săptămâna 17 Lista priorităților de renunțare
Leziuni: David Njoku (genunchi), Cade Otton (genunchi) și Will Dissly (umăr).
Verificați dacă sunt disponibile în ligile superficiale: Zach Ertz (77 la sută înregistrat) și Hunter Henry (72 la sută). Ertz a avut un joc slab în săptămâna 16 împotriva Philadelphia cu o captură pentru 12 yarzi pe două ținte, dar înainte de a suferi o comoție în săptămâna 15 la New Orleans, el a marcat cel puțin 12,5 puncte PPR în trei jocuri la rând. Încă îmi place Ertz ca titular de nivel scăzut în toate ligile în Săptămâna 16 împotriva Atlanta. … Henry a avut patru capturi pentru 39 de metri și un touchdown pe nouă ținte în săptămâna 16 la Buffalo, iar acum a marcat cel puțin 9,4 puncte PPR în opt din ultimele 10 jocuri ale sale, inclusiv șase ieșiri cu cel puțin 12,3 puncte PPR. El nu are o confruntare ușoară în Săptămâna 17 împotriva Chargers, dar este un joc de răzbunare pentru Henry, care este unul dintre cele două ligi.
Adăugați în această ordine:
Săptămâna 17 Lista priorităților de renunțare
Streameri din săptămâna 17 DST
Delfinii (49 la sută listați) la CLE
Berbeci (22 la sută înregistrate) vs. ARI
Seahawks (33 la sută listați) la CHI
Raiders (8 la sută listați) la NR
Kicker streamers
Cine ar trebui să începi și să stai săptămâna aceasta? Și care fundaș surprinzător te-ar putea conduce la victorie? Vizitați SportsLine acum pentru a obține proiecții Fantasy pentru Săptămâna 16 pentru fiecare poziție, plus pentru a vedea care fundaș iese de nicăieri pentru a sparge top 10, toate de la modelul care i-a depășit pe experți în mare măsură.
All the young NFL quarterbacks have their signature moments at some point, a play or a drive that shows off their talent and screams to the rest of the league that they are destined for special things.
Jayden Daniels had his moment Sunday.
The rookie quarterback for the Washington Commanders beat the Chicago Bears earlier this season on a Hail Mary, but that’s essentially an accident, not a moment. Any quarterback with a big arm is capable of that.
What we saw him do Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles is different. It’s career defining. It’s essentially sending out a loud message to the rest of the NFL that they will have to deal with him for at least the next decade.
The Commanders beat the Eagles, 36-33, thanks to a 9-yard touchdown pass from Daniels to Jamison Crowder with six seconds left. He started that drive at his own 43-yard line with 1:52 left and promptly led the Commanders to the victory.
Daniels threw five touchdown passes, and he did it against an Eagles defense that had been dominant over the course of their 10-game winning streak heading into Sunday. In addition to the five touchdown passes, he also led the Commanders with 81 yards rushing.
Daniels is the first rookie quarterback to throw for five or more touchdowns and rush for 65 or more yards in a single game in NFL history.
The clutch gene, which all great quarterbacks have, is what makes him special. He never seems to get rattled. On a fourth-and-11 in the third quarter, he ran for 29 yards and a big first down. Before Sunday’s game, I said on our pre-game show that the Eagles game would be a proving game for Daniels and the Commanders.
It was for both in a big way, The Commanders, who are up to eighth in my Power Rankings this week, are 10-5 with two games to play. It’s unlikely they will catch the Eagles to win the NFC East, but they served notice that they will be a tough out come playoff time — no matter who they play.
Daniels made sure that happened Sunday, and in the process locked up the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. It’s special moments that decide those type of awards, and Daniels had his to beat the Eagles, a signature moment for sure.
Biggest Movers
Rk
Teams
Chg
Rcrd
1
Chiefs
They just keep on winning. The offense is starting to click, which is not a good thing for the rest of the league — starting this week against the Steelers.
—
14-1-0
2
Bills
They had a letdown against the Patriots, and it almost cost them. But good teams find ways to win games like that, which they did.
1
12-3-0
3
Lions
The offense showed it can move the football in any type of weather in the blowout of the Bears. The undermanned defense gave up yards, but made stops when needed.
1
13-2-0
4
Vikings
If they win out, they have the top seed in the NFC. But the schedule is tough with games against Green Bay and Detroit to close it out.
1
13-2-0
5
Packers
They can now play a physical brand of football, which will matter come playoff time. They need to show that off this week against the Vikings in a tough game.
1
11-4-0
6
Eagles
Losing Jalen Hurts to a concussion against Washington hurt, but the defense let them down as well. They have to get back on track after Jayden Daniels carved them up.
4
12-3-0
7
Ravens
By beating the Steelers, they are back in the division race. The defense is making strides at the right time.
1
10-5-0
8
Commanders
They can lock up a playoff spot by beating the Falcons this week. Jayden Daniels is on his way to being the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
2
10-5-0
9
Steelers
Two consecutive losses have set this team’s hopes back some in terms of trying to win the division. And here come the Chiefs on Christmas Day. They can’t afford another loss.
2
10-5-0
10
Rams
They just keep on winning and appear to be on their way to the division title. It wasn’t pretty against the Jets, but they found a way.
1
9-6-0
11
Buccaneers
Losing to the Cowboys takes them out of the top spot in the division. Now they need the Falcons to lose one, and they have to win out to make the playoffs.
1
8-7-0
12
Chargers
The Chargers bounced back from the blowout loss to the Bucs with a nice division victory over the Broncos. One more victory and they are in the playoffs.
1
9-6-0
13
Broncos
They haven’t locked up a playoff berth yet, but they are close. The loss against the Chargers wasn’t a good look after taking a lead early.
4
9-6-0
14
Texans
The loss of receiver Tank Dell to a knee injury will be damning for them. When he went out against the Chiefs, the offense became lifeless. Now they face a tough Ravens team.
—
9-6-0
15
Bengals
They aren’t done yet, but they are barely hanging on. They essentially play a playoff game this week with Denver.
3
7-8-0
16
Colts
Jonathan Taylor bounced back from his terrible fumble in the loss to Denver to rush for over 200 yards against the Titans. They are still alive, but need help.
1
7-8-0
17
Seahawks
Losing two straight games has their playoff chances slimming by the week. They need to win their last two and still might not get in.
2
8-7-0
18
Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. didn’t do a ton in his first start, but he didn’t need to against the Giants. But he will have to do a lot more against the Commanders this week on the road.
3
8-7-0
19
Cowboys
Two consecutive victories might be saving Mike McCarthy’s job — and probably should. They are still playing hard, even though they are done.
3
7-8-0
20
Panthers
Bryce Young is playing good football. That has to give them hope for the future.
6
4-11-0
21
Cardinals
They were eliminated from playoff consideration after losing to Carolina. They were a nice little story for a while, but the undermanned roster caught up with them.
5
7-8-0
22
Dolphins
They are still alive after beating the 49ers, but barely. They ran the ball in that game as well as they have all season, which keyed the victory.
3
7-8-0
23
49ers
The season full of misery is done. The injuries did this team in early this season and they never recovered. What a disappointment.
3
6-9-0
24
Bears
The defense didn’t even show up in the loss to the Lions. They looked disinterested, sort of like they were already in vacation mode.
1
4-11-0
25
Browns
They have to figure out the quarterback position next season — and it can’t be Deshaun Watson. They have issues going forward there.
1
3-12-0
26
Saints
The injuries have crippled this team. It’s a shame how bad they are right now. The question is who will be the coach next year.
1
5-10-0
27
Jets
So much for the push by the offense the past two weeks. Aaron Rodgers was bad against the Rams, and the coaching decisions were even worse.
—
4-11-0
28
Raiders
They lost by winning. They now wouldn’t draft in the top-2 spots, which means they would lose out on the top-2 quarterback prospects. Beating Jacksonville was not a good thing.
4
3-12-0
29
Patriots
They competed against the Bills, which is progress. It also sounds like head coach Jerod Mayo will get a chance to be back for his second season.
1
3-12-0
30
Jaguars
The silver lining of their awful season is rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. He is a future star at the position, but he’s one of the few on the roster.
2
3-12-0
31
Titans
They showed some fight in coming back against the Colts, but they fell in too big of a hole. They need to find a quarterback.
2
3-12-0
32
Giants
They are awful and heading for the top pick in the draft. That’s the good news for their failures, but they are tough to watch now.
The Los Angeles Chargers beat the Denver Broncos on “Thursday Night Football” to open Week 16. On Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs bested the Houston Texans 27-19. Then, the Baltimore Ravens rolled over the AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers 34-17 to clinch a playoff spot.
The action continued on Sunday. Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 218 yards and three touchdowns, and rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. performed well in his debut, leading the Atlanta Falcons past the New York Giants.
Our NFL Nation reporters reacted to all the action, answering lingering questions coming out of each game and detailing everything else you need to know for every team. Let’s get to it.
Will Bryce Young be the Panthers’ starting quarterback going into next season? One hundred percent. Panthers coach Dave Canales was impressed by how Young handled himself following a four-turnover game last week and said before Sunday’s game that Young was his guy for the rest of this season. The top pick of the 2023 draft came through with an impressive performance in beating the Cardinals (two touchdown passes and one rushing score) and proved time and again over the past two months that he can deliver at a high level.
Describe the game in two words: Building block. The Panthers had nothing to play for but pride, while the Cardinals needed a win Sunday to remain in playoff contention. Even with its porous run defense (the Cardinals had 206 yards rushing), the Panthers showed they can play with anybody. Over the past month, they came close to upending the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Eagles.
Early prediction for next week: Carolina will continue to play spoiler as they did Sunday and will beat Tampa Bay, a team the Panthers came within a lost fumble in overtime of beating in Week 13. The Bucs are battling with Atlanta for the NFC South title, but the Panthers are showing they won’t be a pushover down the stretch. — David Newton
Next game: at Buccaneers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Cardinals
What will the next two weeks look like for the Cardinals? Now that they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention, the Cardinals will head into the offseason after games at the Rams and at home versus the 49ers. Arizona has already been playing a number of younger players, but that number could increase as it tries to evaluate who it has for the future. Specifically, offensive linemen Christian Jones and Jon Gaines II could see more snaps in the last two games.
Eye-popping stat: Before he left the game with a knee injury, running back James Conner averaged 6.2 yards before contact per rush in the first half, according to ESPN Research. Entering Sunday, he was averaging 2.3 yards before contact per rush. He had 111 rushing yards in the first half, including 74 before contact.
Biggest hole in the game plan: Containing Bryce Young on the ground. The Panthers quarterback had 68 rushing yards Sunday, 57 of which came within a four-play span in a second-quarter drive. He ripped off a 34-yard run and then scored three plays later on a 23-yard run. — Josh Weinfuss
Next game: at Rams (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
Commanders
Does Sunday’s win lock up rookie of the year honors for quarterback Jayden Daniels? It should — by a large margin. It’s hard to imagine a rookie offensive player doing more than Daniels, who started off strong yet is doing more down the stretch. He now has 22 touchdown passes, including five to beat the Eagles and nine over the past three games. He also rushed for 82 of the Commanders’ 114 yards Sunday. Washington’s offense did not have a lot going for it with five turnovers, but Daniels bailed it out with big pass plays, including the 10-yard winning throw with six seconds left.
Describe the game in two words: Unlikely comeback. The Commanders had no business winning after turning the ball over five times, which led to 13 points for the Eagles. Yet, Daniels made all the difference. And the Commanders also contained running back Saquon Barkley to 27 yards on 16 carries in the second half.
Biggest hole in the game plan: The run game. Washington’s run game was all or nothing — and the all was its rookie quarterback. The Commanders’ line couldn’t move the Eagles’ front all afternoon. This has become a reoccurring issue, as their running backs rushed for only 34 yards against the Saints last week. — John Keim
Next game: vs. Falcons (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Eagles
What’s the significance of Jalen Hurts’ injury? Hurts exited the game in the first quarter because of a concussion. Time will tell if he clears protocol for next week. The No. 1 seed is a long shot after the Eagles lost and the Lions won Sunday. According to ESPN Analytics, the Eagles would have a 80% win probability versus the Cowboys and an 84% win probability in the regular-season finale against the Giants with Hurts playing. That drops to 66% against Dallas and 72% against New York with Kenny Pickett as the starter.
Eye-popping stat: Saquon Barkley rushed for 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the first quarter, highlighted by a 68-yard TD scamper down the left sideline late. He is the first player with 100-plus rushing yards and two-plus rushing touchdowns in an opening quarter since the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson in Week 14 of 2012. Peterson won MVP that season.
What we learned about the QB on Sunday: Pickett had a roller coaster of a day. He helped cap off a touchdown drive on the series Hurts was injured on a four-yard strike to A.J. Brown but then threw an interception that led to a Commanders score. Overall, it was a grind, with some misfires and streaks of low productivity mixed in with some positive plays. — Tim McManus
Next game: vs. Cowboys (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
play
0:19
Jalen Hurts leaves game after hitting head on the ground
Jalen Hurts picks up yards scrambling but the play ends with his head hitting the turf, leading to Hurts leaving the game.
Lions
Can running back Jahmyr Gibbs continue to carry the load with David Montgomery out? Certainly. Gibbs and Montgomery could be feature backs for nearly any team in the NFL. But even without Montgomery — who is sidelined with a MCL injury — in Chicago, Gibbs finished with 154 scrimmage yards. He rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown, while catching four receptions for 45 yards. Entering the game, he was prepared for a larger workload and his production showed it wasn’t too much for him to handle.
What we learned about the QB on Sunday: Lions quarterback Jared Goff wasn’t fazed by the loss to Buffalo or Detroit’s banged-up roster. Instead, he bounced back in spectacular fashion, finishing 23-of-32 with 336 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also set a career-high mark for passing touchdowns in a season (33) in the win.
Early prediction for next week: Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams will eclipse the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the first time in his NFL career. Williams, who had a career-best 143 receiving yards Sunday, is 110 yards away from the mark. In last year’s NFC title game against the 49ers, he delivered a rushing and receiving touchdown. — Eric Woodyard
Next game: at 49ers (Monday, Dec. 30, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Bears
How did Ben Johnson’s up-close audition land with the Bears? Sources confirmed to ESPN that Johnson, the Lions’ offensive coordinator, is expected to interview for the Bears’ head coaching vacancy. Detroit put up 400-plus yards of offense for a third time in four games and jumped out to an early 20-0 lead. Conversely, Johnson, who praised quarterback Caleb Williams for how the ball “whistles” when he throws it, got a good look at a strong performance from the rookie.
What we learned about the QB on Sunday: Williams is playing with confidence amid a lost season. He became the first rookie in franchise history to pass for 3,000 yards and threw the longest touchdown pass of his career, a 45-yarder to receiver Keenan Allen. Williams has completed at least 10 passes to receivers split out wide in three of his past four games after doing so only once in Weeks 1-12.
Most surprising performance: Allen crossed 100 receiving yards (141 total) for the first time this season after seeing double-digit targets (13) for the fifth time. The 32-year-old veteran scored the longest touchdown of his career and needs two more TD catches to set a single-season career high (nine). — Courtney Cronin
Next game: vs. Seahawks (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Colts
Should the Colts have leaned more on their running game? For starters, the Titans played some abysmal run defense in this game. But the Colts’ dominance on the ground was the closest thing they’ve shown to a true identity. Indianapolis stuck with the run even when the Titans knew it was coming. The Colts’ 335 rushing yards was their biggest output since the final week of the 2020 season. With running back Jonathan Taylor and a physical offensive line, this is the brand of football that best suits this team.
Describe the game in two words: Unnecessarily difficult. The Colts allowed the Titans to score 23 unanswered points in the second half after taking a 38-7 lead. It didn’t need to be that hard. A clutch third-down conversion with under two minutes remaining iced the game, as quarterback Anthony Richardson connected with wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. to move the chains.
Eye-popping stat: Taylor became the third player with 200-plus rushing yards and three touchdowns in a game over the past decade. His 218 rushing yards were the second-most of his career, behind 253 yards against the Jaguars in 2020. — Stephen Holder
Next game: at Giants (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
play
0:16
Jonathan Taylor scores his 3rd TD of the game
Jonathan Taylor finds the end zone for the third time vs. the Titans, increasing the Colts’ lead.
Titans
Is the late comeback attempt proof the Titans haven’t quit on first-year coach Brian Callahan? The Titans scored on their second drive but got outscored 38-0 until Tyjae Spears’ touchdown run with 3:02 left in the third quarter. Rather than lay down, Callahan’s team fought back to within one score. The overall performance is unacceptable. But the way the Titans kept pushing forward shows they haven’t quit on Callahan. Next week’s matchup with the Jaguars is the best chance the Titans have to add to their three-win total.
What we learned about the QB on Sunday: Although he has played five more seasons than Will Levis, Mason Rudolph is susceptible to the same mistakes. He threw an interception late in the second quarter that led to the Colts’ third touchdown of the period. The offense was more on schedule, but it’s clear whoever is under center can’t overcome all the reasons the Titans haven’t been winning.
Eye-popping stat: Entering this week, the Titans’ run defense was 12th in the NFL, allowing 115.2 rushing yards per game. The Colts finished with 335 yards on the ground, which was the second-most allowed by a Titans/Oilers defense in franchise history. The Dallas Texans set the record with 398 rushing yards against the Houston Oilers on Oct. 1, 1965. — Turron Davenport
Next game: at Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Falcons
How did Michael Penix Jr. do in his first career start? It was only the second time a Falcons quarterback has led his team to a double-digit win in his first NFL start (Matt Ryan, 2008). Ryan, of course, went on to be perhaps the greatest player in franchise history. It’s too soon for any superlatives about Penix. He finished 18-of-27 for 202 yards and an interception that should have been caught by tight end Kyle Pitts. The defense and running back Bijan Robinson were the stars Sunday, but the quarterback’s arm talent, poise and processing were encouraging. It was against the 2-13 Giants, yet Atlanta’s offense looked much better than it had the past five games with Kirk Cousins.
Eye-popping stat: The Falcons had pick-sixes by safety Jessie Bates III and edge rusher Matthew Judon. It was the first time the team has had two pick-sixes in one game since 1983. Bates now has four interceptions on the season, and Judon scored his first career touchdown.
Describe the game in two words: Confidence builder. Things could not have gone better for the Falcons, who were 1-4 in their past five games and had benched their starting quarterback much sooner than they expected. Their 34-7 lead in the fourth quarter was their biggest since 2020. The defense also dominated for a second straight game. — Marc Raimondi
Next game: at Commanders (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Giants
Are the Giants going to win another game this season? The Giants have lost their past two games by a combined 48 points against the Falcons and Ravens. They will be heavy underdogs at home against the Colts and on the road against the Eagles. There is nothing to suggest their season won’t end with 12 straight losses. It might not be the worst thing given the situation. They came into Sunday with a 37% chance for the first overall pick, according to ESPN Analytics. Losing out will only help those odds.
Describe the game in two words: Record futility. That makes it a franchise-record 10th straight loss for the Giants. Their last victory was on Oct. 6 in Seattle. They haven’t even been competitive in a good chunk of games. They have lost three of their past five games by more than 20 points, which is contrary to general manager Joe Schoen’s bye week claim they were close to winning games.
Eye-popping stat: After throwing two pick-sixes against the Falcons, quarterback Drew Lock has now thrown three pick-sixes in three starts. That is the second-most pick sixes this season despite his limited playing time in the Giants’ offense. Only Tennessee’s Will Levis (four) has tossed more. — Jordan Raanan
Next game: vs. Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Rams
What does this win mean for the Rams’ playoff chances? With their victory over the Jets, the Rams still control their playoff destiny, with home games against the Cardinals and Seahawks to end the regular season. The Rams have made the playoffs in five of their seven seasons under coach Sean McVay.
Describe the game in two words: December football. Just like they did in a rainy game vs. the 49ers in Week 15, the Rams leaned on their running game in 23-degree weather. Kyren Williams led the way with 122 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. It was his 13th rushing score this season, the most by a Rams player since Todd Gurley scored 17 in 2018, per ESPN Research.
Most surprising performance: Sunday saw the season debut for tight end Tyler Higbee, who tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee in last season’s wild-card loss to the Lions. He had only one catch for 11 yards, but it was a touchdown reception that gave the Rams a lead they never gave up in the fourth quarter. It was his first touchdown in 392 days, according to ESPN Research. — Sarah Barshop
Next game: vs. Cardinals (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
play
0:18
Kyren Williams barrels into end zone for Rams
Kyren Williams runs in a short touchdown to get the Rams on the board vs. the Jets.
How does an offense with so much talent continue to underachieve? The Jets opened with a 99-yard touchdown drive. They didn’t punt once and still managed only nine points — yet another reminder that the Aaron Rodgers-led offense has been a major bust. Rodgers missed some open receivers and lost a fumble deep in Jets territory, every lineman committed at least one penalty, the red zone efficiency was terrible (1-for-3) and receiver Allen Lazard dropped two passes. The end result was their sixth loss despite holding a fourth-quarter lead (a league high).
Biggest hole in the game plan: Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich made two questionable decisions on fourth down. The most egregious was going for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 33 in the second quarter when up 6-0. They failed, giving the Rams a short field for an eventual game-tying touchdown (missed PAT). Later, Ulbrich passed up a short field goal on their first drive of the second half and they failed on fourth-and-4.
Describe the game in two words: Where’s Garrett? Garrett Wilson, already unhappy with the state of the offense, was targeted only three times over the first 55 minutes. Interestingly, he has been a nonfactor for the past six quarters, dating back to his sideline outburst last week in Jacksonville. Davante Adams continued to get the bulk of the targets. Wilson finished with six catches for 54 yards. — Rich Cimini
Next game: at Bills (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Bengals
Are the Bengals back in playoff contention? Somehow, yes. After being four games under .500 a few weeks ago, they have their playoff chances still flickering ahead of Week 17. The Bengals have won three straight games. And in their past two victories, they have looked convincingly good against bad teams, something that was an issue for most the season. This win sets up a big home showdown next Saturday.
Early prediction for next week: The Bengals will struggle with Denver’s pass rush if they can’t get healthy. Cincinnati right tackle Amarius Mims left the game with an ankle injury and Orlando Brown Jr. remains out with a fibula injury. The Broncos are fifth in pass rush win rate (45%) and third in sacks per dropback (8.2%). That could be a handful if Mims and Brown aren’t ready.
Most surprising performance: Cincinnati’s young defensive linemen had a big impact. The got sacks from rookie defensive tackles Kris Jenkins Jr. (2) and McKinnley Jackson (1). Cedric Johnson, who has been a healthy scratch often throughout the year, forced an intentional grounding late in the game too. It’s a great sign for a group that has relied on Trey Hendrickson all season. — Ben Baby
Next game: vs. Broncos (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Browns
What else is there for the Browns to accomplish with two games left? The Browns’ 12th loss of the season was filled with more mistakes — three turnovers — and an offense, now led by quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, that couldn’t sustain drives. Cleveland wraps up the season with games against the Dolphins and Ravens before an offseason that will be filled with tough decisions. The team has been increasingly using its younger players, especially on the defensive line, and that could continue in the final two weeks.
What we learned about the QB on Sunday: Thompson-Robinson isn’t ready to be considered for the Browns’ 2025 starting position. He made his fourth career start but looked like he has for much of his young career: Talented but careless with the ball. He was intercepted twice, including once in the end zone, which brings his career total to nine with just one passing touchdown.
Early prediction for next week: The Browns will hold Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a season-low in passing yards. Cleveland runs Cover 1 at the highest rate in the NFL, and Tagovailoa has struggled against the coverage. He averages 5.4 yards per attempt, which is the second-lowest mark among qualifying passers. — Daniel Oyefusi
Next game: vs. Dolphins (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Ravens
Are the Ravens now the favorites to win the AFC North? Not exactly. It’s true that Baltimore and Pittsburgh are both tied atop the division with 10-5 records. But the Ravens have a 45% chance to win the AFC North, according to ESPN Analytics. If Baltimore and Pittsburgh both win out, the Ravens lose the top spot because their record in common games is worse than the Steelers’. So, the Ravens likely need to win out — at Houston and home against Cleveland — and the Steelers need to lose at least one more time. Pittsburgh’s last two games are at home against the Chiefs and the Bengals. But this was a huge victory and confidence boost for the Ravens — who had lost eight of the previous nine games against the Steelers.
Describe the game in two words: Role reversal. Unlike the previous meetings with the Steelers, it was the Ravens who capitalized on Pittsburgh’s mistakes. Baltimore produced two takeaways — a forced fumble on Russell Wilson inside the Baltimore 5-yard line and a Marlon Humphrey 37-yard interception return for a touchdown. This was the first defensive score of the season for the Ravens. It was a much different story from the previous nine meetings, when Baltimore turned the ball over 19 times.
Most surprising performance: Running back Derrick Henry. He ran for 162 yards, recording his first career 100-yard game against the Steelers and redeeming himself from his 65-yard performance last month in Pittsburgh. It had been a tough stretch for Henry, who had been held under 70 yards rushing in three of his previous five games. Now, Henry is in an elite group with his fourth 1,500-yard rushing season, which trails only Barry Sanders (who had five). — Jamison Hensley
Next game: at Texans (Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
play
0:23
Marlon Humphrey snags pick-six, taunts Calvin Austin en route to the house
Marlon Humphrey comes up with a big play to snag Russell Wilson’s pass and take it to the end zone to pad the Ravens’ lead vs. the Steelers.
Steelers
Can the Steelers still win the AFC North? After dropping Saturday’s game to the Ravens, the Steelers have to win out to clinch their division and a home playoff game. With games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals to finish out the season, that’s not an easy task. While there’s no simple fix to the recent ails of a Steelers team that can’t get off the field on defense or move the ball on offense, the return of S DeShon Elliott and WR George Pickens would go a long way to finishing the season strong.
What we learned about the QB on Saturday: Wilson had two touchdown passes, but he also directly contributed to 14 of the Ravens’ points. Not only did he fumble the ball 4 yards short of the end zone in the first half, but in the fourth quarter, his pass thrown behind tight end MyCole Pruitt was picked off and returned for a touchdown by Humphrey. The pick-six gave the Ravens a 31-17 lead with 13 minutes to go and all but shut the door on a Steelers comeback. Wilson completed 22 of 33 attempts for 217 yards, but the turnovers were his most costly of the season.
Biggest hole in the game plan: What happened to Pat Freiermuth? The Steelers tight end came into Saturday’s game with a touchdown in three straight games, but he was a nonfactor against the Ravens. Freiermuth finished with three catches on three targets for 16 yards. — Brooke Pryor
Next game: vs. Chiefs (Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET)
Chiefs
Is Xavier Worthy the Chiefs’ most valuable receiver? Who else could it be at this point? The Chiefs went to Worthy 11 times as a receiver and three times as a ball carrier. He delivered 7 catches, 65 yards and 1 touchdown as a receiver and 10 rushing yards. The Chiefs had some timely contributions from other receivers, most notably Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. But Worthy was their go-to receiver.
What we learned about the QB on Saturday: Patrick Mahomes can be effective with his high ankle sprain. He didn’t have his best game but was good enough for the Chiefs to win. He scored the Chiefs’ first touchdown on a 15-yard scramble and also had a 12-yard scramble on the drive.
Most surprising performance: Brown had a promising game for a player who hasn’t been in a game since suffering a sternoclavicular injury during the preseason. Brown didn’t play a lot but caught five passes for 45 yards. One catch came on fourth down, another on third down. Both plays delivered the Chiefs a fresh set of downs. — Adam Teicher
Next game: at Steelers (Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET)
Texans
How will the Texans overcome injuries? The Texans lost three starters in right guard Shaq Mason, wideout Tank Dell and safety Jimmie Ward. All appear to be long-term injuries, as Ward and Dell had to be carted off the field. Losing Dell is a bigger loss, as he’s another weapon gone for quarterback C.J. Stroud. Wideout Stefon Diggs already suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 8 and now Dell is most likely going to be out.
What we learned about the QB on Saturday: Stroud can and will have to be efficient with Dell out. The only difference-maker he has now is Nico Collins. So whenever teams take him away, Stroud will have to take underneath throws, which he did against the Chiefs, going 10-for-15 for 102 yards.
Biggest hole in the game plan: In four out of the past six games, running back Joe Mixon has under 60 rushing yards. His low production is a result of the shuffling on the offensive line. The Texans are 5-2 when Mixon rushes for over 100 yards but are 2-3 when he rushes for under 60. — DJ Bien-Aime
Next game: vs. Ravens (Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Chargers
Are the Chargers’ defensive issues fixable? After being one of the NFL’s best defenses for much of the season, the Chargers’ defense has fallen off in recent weeks. That continued in the first half Thursday night, as the Broncos scored on their first three possessions, the first time a team has done that to L.A. this season. The Chargers’ biggest issue has been on third down. Through the first 11 weeks, they allowed 32.3% of third down conversions (second in NFL), but from Weeks 12-15, they allowed 47.5% (27th). They adjusted against Denver, allowing six points in the second half and holding the Broncos to 5-of-13 on third down, a sign that their issues could be behind them.
Describe the game in two words: Opportunistic Chargers. The Chargers took advantage of the Broncos’ penalties; Denver racked up seven penalties for 61 yards, while the Chargers had only two for eight yards. A fair catch interference penalty at the end of the first half, which led to kicker Cameron Dicker making the first fair catch free kick in 48 years, turned the game around for the Chargers. They outscored the Broncos 21-6 from that moment to win the game.
Early prediction for next week: The Chargers’ defense will get its first shutout. The Chargers seemed to find a spark defensively in that second half against Denver and will face a New England Patriots team next Saturday that is 31st in the NFL in points per game (17). This could be the perfect storm for a defense that has had near-shutouts twice this season and a jolt of momentum ahead of the playoffs. — Kris Rhim
Next game: at Patriots (Saturday, 1 p.m. ET)
Broncos
How big of a missed opportunity was Thursday’s loss? It’s more a blow to the Broncos’ psyche than their actual playoff chances, but the loss to the Chargers showed some immaturity in the big moment. The Broncos dropped from the No. 6 seed to the No. 7 (and final) seed with the loss, but they still have a 2.5-game lead on the Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins for that postseason spot. The real concern is with how the Broncos lost — a flurry of untimely penalties and an offense that went tepid after scoring touchdowns on its first three possessions. Denver scored 21 points in the first 24 minutes of the game, then six in the remaining 36. The Broncos were ready to end their eight-year playoff drought, which makes the loss, according to coach Sean Payton, “disappointing because there was a lot at stake.”
Describe the game in two words: Didn’t listen. Payton has written it on his call sheet: “Run It!” And despite the Broncos’ early success on the ground — they ran the ball on seven of 10 plays to score a touchdown on their opening possession, then ran it just 14 times the remainder of the game. Payton continues to struggle to find a rhythm in how he calls the run game even as he continues to say how important it will be for the Broncos. But he’s not following through on his words.
Biggest hole in the game plan: Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey came into the game leading their offense in receptions and receiving yards by a substantial margin. But the Broncos chose not to match Pro Bowl cornerback Pat Surtain II on him and struggled to contain the damage. McConkey repeatedly moved the sticks, catching six passes for 87 yards. “We dropped coverage five different times … you can’t have one of their top receivers not covered,” Payton said. — Jeff Legwold
The Week 16 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 16 slate, including the surging Eagles trying to lock up the NFC East title versus the Commanders. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Saints and the Packers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Giants storyline to watch: As the Giants try to avoid a franchise-record 10th straight loss, wide receiver Malik Nabers has a bunch of records in sight. He’s 99 yards away from being a 1,000-yard receiver and two catches from passing Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. for most receptions by a rookie in franchise history. Nabers, with 90 catches, has a shot at Puka Nacua’s NFL rookie record of 105 catches. — Jordan Raanan
Falcons storyline to watch: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the eighth pick in the 2024 draft, will make his first NFL start. Coach Raheem Morris said this week that Penix has not thrown much to the team’s starting wide receivers in practice because he has been the scout team quarterback behind Kirk Cousins since OTAs. But Penix trained with Ray-Ray McCloud III in the offseason, and the two have developed good chemistry. — Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: Running back Bijan Robinson is one touchdown away from being the first Falcons player with 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in a season since Devonta Freeman in 2016.
Bold prediction: Penix will record a 60-plus QBR. Facing the Giants, the Falcons should be able to limit the ask on him, and I think the result will be an efficient performance in a win. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Falcons are one game back of the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. Atlanta currently has a 29% chance of making the playoffs and a 21% chance of winning the division, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Injuries: Giants | Falcons
Fantasy X factor: Nabers. He has four-plus receptions in every game this season, the second-longest streak in the league, and 10-plus targets in nine of those games. The Falcons’ defense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so starting the Giants’ only viable threat would be the smart play. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their past nine games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their past four games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Falcons 28, Giants 14 Moody’s pick: Falcons 28, Giants 17 Walder’s pick: Falcons 24, Giants 16 FPI prediction: ATL, 62.9% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Giants turn back to Lock as starting QB vs. Falcons … Falcons’ Cousins: Told Penix ‘I’d be in his corner’ … Giants’ Daboll and Schoen: Stay or go?
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DET -6.5 (47.5 O/U)
Lions storyline to watch: Detroit has been bitten by the injury bug with a league-high 21 players currently on the injured reserve list, including running back David Montgomery, who sustained a torn MCL in the loss to the Bills. Without Montgomery, coach Dan Campbell is confident in Jahmyr Gibbs’ ability as the Lions’ “lead horse.” Gibbs said his on-field mindset won’t change. “I’ve been doing this my whole life, so I don’t look at it any different,” he said. — Eric Woodyard
Bears storyline to watch: Chicago’s eight straight losses are taking a toll on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. “Losing is one of those things that really affects me,” Williams said. “It’s tough.” The Bears have their second straight NFC North matchup, coming off a loss to Minnesota in which they converted only one third-down opportunity. Williams has the third-worst off-target percentage (21.4) this season and a 51 QBR against man coverage, which Detroit plays at the highest rate in the league (56%). — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears’ eight straight losses are tied for the second-longest losing streak in franchise history and their longest since losing 14 consecutive games in 2022-23.
Bold prediction: The Lions’ defense — yes, even with all the injuries — will bounce back and give up 15 or fewer points to the Bears. There’s real reason for concern for the Lions’ defense when it faces a good offense, as it did against the Bills last week. The Bears are not that. — Walder
What’s at stake: With a win, the Lions’ chances at the No.1 seed in the NFC improve to 65%, per ESPN Analytics. With a loss, they fall to 26%. Read more.
Injuries: Lions | Bears
Fantasy X factor: Gibbs. He has averaged 16.1 touches per game, and the Lions rely heavily on their running backs, backed by an offensive line that ranks 13th in run block win rate (71.6%). Plus, the Bears’ defense gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their past five as home underdogs. They have covered in three in a row. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Lions 34, Bears 24 Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Bears 24 Walder’s pick: Lions 34, Bears 13 FPI prediction: DET, 71.9% (by an average of 8.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Campbell takes blame for loss vs. Bills … Losing ‘really affects me,’ says Bears QB Williams … DE Hutchinson on track for Super Bowl return … Coach Thomas Brown defends Bears’ effort during skid
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -7.5 (46.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to watch: At quarterback, the Browns are turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a 2023 fifth-round pick who will make his fourth career start Sunday. His mobility should open some things in the run game, but, like the recently benched Jameis Winston, he will have to take better care of the ball. Thompson-Robinson has thrown seven interceptions to only one touchdown already. — Daniel Oyefusi
Bengals storyline to watch: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett has sacked quarterback Joe Burrow nine times, the most of any opponent in Burrow’s career. Cincinnati is trying to blank Garrett’s sack count against Burrow for the first time in five seasons. Getting Cody Ford (flu) back will be big for an offensive line still without Orlando Brown Jr. (fibula). — Ben Baby
Stat to know: Burrow has a 72 QBR in every Bengals loss this season. That’s the second-best mark since the metric was first calculated in 2006 (Ben Roethlisberger had a 76 QBR in six losses in 2018).
Bold prediction: Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson will record at least 2.5 sacks and reemerge as a defensive player of the year candidate. Thompson-Robinson hasn’t taken sacks at high rate in his career, but the sample is limited and I expect the Bengals to be ahead, which leads to more sacks. — Walder
What’s at stake: Any chance for the Bengals to make the postseason rides on this game. They will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Browns, and they currently hold the ninth-best odds at 6%, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Injuries: Browns | Bengals
Fantasy X factor: Browns running back Jerome Ford. Without Nick Chubb (foot), Ford should lead the Browns’ committee for the rest of the season. Expect him to get plenty of touches, even if the Bengals get out ahead early. He has been the primary back on passing downs all season, so he’ll stay involved no matter the score. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 0-3 ATS in their past three, 1-5 ATS in their past six and 3-9 ATS in their past 12. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 30, Browns 13 Moody’s pick: Bengals 31, Browns 14 Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Browns 13 FPI prediction: CIN, 67.3% (by an average of 6.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns bench Winston; Thompson-Robinson to start vs. Bengals … Bengals RB Brown staking claim as featured running back … South Florida route-running culture embedded in Cleveland
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IND -3.5 (42.5 O/U)
Titans storyline to watch: Calvin Ridley needs 221 receiving yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark. He didn’t register a reception in the first meeting with the Colts despite being targeted eight times by then-starter Will Levis. Mason Rudolph will be the quarterback this time, which is good news for Ridley as his season-high 143 receiving yards came with Rudolph throwing to him against the Lions. — Turron Davenport
Colts storyline to watch: The Colts enter this week ranked 28th in yards allowed per game (366.1), their lowest mark since 2017 when they finished 4-12. Somehow, they’ve ranked better in scoring defense at 21st with 23.5 points per game. But an underrated byproduct has been Indianapolis having the NFL’s lowest time of possession at 26 minutes, 41 seconds per game. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Titans running back Tony Pollard needs 85 scrimmage yards to reach 1,300 for the third straight season. He would join Derrick Henry as the only players to reach that mark in each of the past three seasons.
Bold prediction: Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell will catch a 30-plus-air-yard pass. He has been targeted on five such throws this season and has zero receptions, but I’m convinced the connection is going to happen this weekend. ESPN’s open score loves Mitchell, giving him an 83 in the category. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Colts were eliminated from playoff contention after the Chargers defeated the Broncos on Thursday night. But the Titans still have something on the line, as their current 39% chance at a top-five pick will improve with a win, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Injuries: Titans | Colts
Fantasy X factor: Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. He struggled as a passer last week, completing just 44.7% of attempts, but he rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown. This week, he faces a Titans defense giving up the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and giving up the eighth-most rushing yards. Expect him to take advantage. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season. Six straight Titans road games have gone over the total. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Colts 21, Titans 12 Moody’s pick: Colts 24, Titans 13 Walder’s pick: Colts 17, Titans 9 FPI prediction: IND, 49.9% (by an average of 0.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Benched Levis: Still believe I can be Titans’ franchise QB … Butker, Bates and the life of an NFL kicker … Colts are good on first drives, but then fall apart
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAR -3 (46.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to watch: This is the 18th time starting quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers will face each other, which will be tied for the fifth most among starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs), according to ESPN Research. Rodgers has won 13 of them, but Stafford might have the upper hand this time since the Jets have won only twice in their past 11 games. — Sarah Barshop
Jets storyline to watch: Rodgers needs two touchdown passes to become only the fifth player in NFL history to hit the 500 mark. He’s playing his best ball of the year, having thrown for 628 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the past two games. The offense has produced 58 points and 802 yards, which are its most in back-to-back games this season. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Rams are looking to become the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons after being three games under .500 at some point in the year.
Bold prediction: Rams rookie Jared Verse will record at least a 25% pass rush win rate and a sack against Jets rookie Olu Fashanu. The offensive tackle’s 87% pass block win rate is better than what Tyron Smith posted before his injury, but it is still below average. Verse is anything but average, and Sunday’s game could bolster his chances at Defensive Rookie of the Year. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Rams currently have a 54% chance to make playoffs and a 53% chance to win NFC West, per ESPN Analytics. Those chances improve to 65% and 64%, respectively, with a win. And they fall to 43% and 42%, respectively, with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Rams | Jets
Fantasy X factor: Rodgers. He came alive on Sunday against the Jaguars, dropping a season-high 30 fantasy points. That’s not surprising since Jacksonville has given up the most points to quarterbacks this season. He’s set up for another big game with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson as his top receivers because the Rams’ defense gives up the 13th-most passing yards per game (218.1). See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jets are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Rams 28, Jets 20 Moody’s pick: Rams 28, Jets 24 Walder’s pick: Rams 24, Jets 19 FPI prediction: LAR, 51.1% (by an average of 0.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: McVay galvanizes Rams to three-game win stretch … The real Rodgers saving his best for last with Jets … Wilson tries to clear air after sideline outburst
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -3.5 (45.5 O/U)
Eagles storyline to watch: The Eagles’ pass game awoke against the Steelers after several quiet games, with quarterback Jalen Hurts throwing for 290 yards and a pair of scores. Wide receiver A.J. Brown was targeted a season-high 11 times and finished with eight catches for 110 yards. Good things happen when Hurts goes Brown’s way, as the duo tops the NFL in yards per attempt (12.1). — Tim McManus
Commanders storyline to watch: In the first meeting in Week 11, a 26-18 Eagles win, Commanders leading receiver Terry McLaurin was targeted a season-low two times. Philadelphia often bracketed him in the red zone, and it didn’t help that he ran 22 of his 25 routes from the left side. But, in the past three games, Washington has moved him around more — 40 routes run from the left side and 22 on the right. More importantly, he has more than nine targets on both sides during this stretch. — John Keim
Stat to know: Hurts has 14 rushing touchdowns, which is the most in the NFL and tied for the third most by a quarterback through a season in NFL history. He had 15 in 2023, which Josh Allen matched in the same year for the second-most ever.
Bold prediction: McLaurin will record under 35 receiving yards. I’m fully buying the Eagles’ secondary, and he is far and away the most important Commanders target for a defense to try to stop. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles can lock up the NFC East title with a win. If the Commanders win, they need the Falcons to lose, as well as losses by either the Rams or Seahawks, to make the postseason. Read more.
Injuries: Eagles | Commanders
Fantasy X factor: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. The Commanders’ defensive front ranks 24th in run stop win rate (29.1%), while the Eagles’ offensive line ranks ninth in run block win rate (72.9%). Washington also gives up the sixth-most rushing yards per game to running backs and is giving up 5.0 yards per carry. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 10-3-1 ATS in the first quarter this season, which is the best in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 27 Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 24 Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Commanders 17 FPI prediction: PHI, 58.8% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Eagles revive passing game as QB Hurts deals with broken finger … Bill provision may aid Commanders return to D.C. … Wives of Commanders kickers go into labor at same time
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ARI -5 (47.5 O/U)
Cardinals storyline to watch: The Panthers’ struggles throwing the ball this season will give the Cardinals a prime opportunity to continue their march toward a playoff spot. Their defense is giving up 217 passing yards per game and 6.94 passing yards per play and will line up across an offense that is among the worst passing teams in the NFL, averaging 186 yards per game (29th) and 5.69 yards per play (28th). — Josh Weinfuss
Panthers storyline to watch: Carolina probably will be without one of its best remaining defensive linemen (A’Shawn Robinson, knee) on a unit that already ranks last in the NFL against the run (giving up 173 yards per game). It also lost two more linebackers to IR (Trevin Wallace and Claudin Cherelus). That’s not good news when you’re facing the league’s seventh-best run offense, averaging 141 yards, and an elusive quarterback in Kyler Murray. — David Newton
Stat to know: With a loss, the Panthers would clinch five or fewer wins for the fifth time in the past six seasons. Before 2019, the franchise had only three seasons with five or fewer wins since they played their first NFL season in 1995.
Bold prediction: The Cardinals will score 35-plus points. It’s being slept on as to just how good Murray has been this season. He ranks fourth in QBR (68.4) without an exceptional offensive line or wide receiver room. And this week, he gets to show off against a Carolina defense that’s 31st in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play and 30th in EPA allowed per dropback. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Cardinals are a game back of the Rams and Seahawks for first place in the NFC West. Arizona enters Sunday with a 14% chance to win the division, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Injuries: Cardinals | Panthers
Fantasy X factor: Cardinals running back James Conner. He has averaged 18.4 touches per game and exploded for a season-high 30.8 fantasy points in Week 14. Now, he faces a Panthers defense that gives up the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Expect another big game. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered five straight games as underdogs. They are 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 30, Panthers 21 Moody’s pick: Cardinals 30, Panthers 20 Walder’s pick: Cardinals 37, Panthers 17 FPI prediction: ARI, 74.6% (by an average of 9.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cardinals safety Baker lands 3-year extension … Sunday’s loss to Cowboys a microcosm of Panthers’ issues
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIN -3 (42.5 O/U)
Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings have struggled to win in Seattle, a trend that includes generations of players, coaches, front offices and ownership groups. They’ve lost their past five games there and have won only twice in 11 games over the past six decades. On paper, this season’s matchup favors the Vikings since their defense is tied for the NFL’s fourth-most sacks (42). The Seahawks have given up the league’s third-most sacks (47). — Kevin Seifert
Seahawks storyline to watch: Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings are blitzing on a league-high 39% of opponents’ dropbacks. Geno Smith has the ninth-best QBR (80.6) against the blitz, but will he have his usual ability to evade rushers and extend plays Sunday? Smith couldn’t finish Seattle’s loss to Green Bay because of a right knee injury, though he plans to play against Minnesota. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Seahawks are 3-5 at home this season. A loss would mark their most home losses in a season since 2008, when they finished 2-6.
Bold prediction: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will throw at least two interceptions. Though the Vikings beat the Bears easily last week, Darnold struggled at times with accuracy and posted a negative-4% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: Though the Vikings have clinched a playoff spot, the Seahawks currently hold a 36.2% chance to make the postseason, per ESPN Analytics. Seattle’s odds increase to 54.6% with a win and decrease to 23.3% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Vikings | Seahawks
Fantasy X factor: Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He has been on fire since Seattle’s bye week, recording 18 or more fantasy points in four of his past five games. He faces a Vikings defense that has given up the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Expect Smith-Njigba to stay heavily involved and deliver another strong performance. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 24, Seahawks 17 Moody’s pick: Vikings 24, Seahawks 13 Walder’s pick: Seahawks 26, Vikings 20 FPI prediction: MIN, 58.9% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jefferson, Vikings pay tribute to Randy Moss amid cancer fight … Geno ‘better,’ plans to play despite knee injury
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -14 (46.5 O/U)
Patriots storyline to watch: The past two times the Patriots and Bills have played in Buffalo, the opening kickoff has been returned for a touchdown, which has never happened between the same teams at the same venue in back-to-back seasons. This will also be the coldest game for Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the teens. “I’m excited to wear long sleeves for the first time and embrace it,” he said. — Mike Reiss
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills’ offense has a chance to become the first team to score 30-plus points in nine straight games. The Patriots have given up 24.1 points per game this season (10th worst). New England’s biggest task will be slowing MVP candidate Josh Allen, who also can become the first quarterback in the past 90 years to record multiple rushing touchdowns in three consecutive games, per Elias Sports Bureau. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Maye has a passing touchdown in six consecutive games entering Sunday. One more would tie Jim Plunkett (1971) for the longest streak by a rookie in franchise history.
Bold prediction: Bills edge Von Miller will record at least one sack. He has only one sack since returning from suspension in Week 9, but he actually boasts a 25% pass rush win rate at edge in that span, which is third best at the position. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Bills are in a fight with the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed. Buffalo’s chances increase to 25% with a win and fall to 3.6% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. On the other end, the Patriots’ odds at the No. 1 pick climb to 30% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Patriots | Bills
Fantasy X factor: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. He has been targeted often by Allen, with seven or more targets in eight games and two with 10 or more. Shakir has scored 16 or more fantasy points in consecutive games. He should do well against the Patriots’ defense, especially from the slot. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots have been 14-point underdogs only one other time in the past 30 seasons — 2023 against the Bills, when they lost by six. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bills 33, Patriots 17 Moody’s pick: Bills 41, Patriots 13 Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17 FPI prediction: BUF, 82.5% (by an average of 13.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mayo ‘didn’t mean anything’ with playcalling remark … Allen reaches new heights at QB, keeps Bills rolling
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LV -1.5 (40.5 O/U)
Jaguars storyline to watch: Jacksonville has really struggled preventing the big play. The Jaguars have given up a league-high 89 explosive plays (rushes of 15 or more yards and receptions of 30 or more yards). They’ve also given up 16 touchdowns on those plays, which is tied with Cleveland for the most. That’s a good matchup for the Raiders, who rank 22nd in the NFL with 44 offensive plays of 20 or more yards. — Michael DiRocco
Raiders storyline to watch: With only six catches in the Raiders’ past two games, Brock Bowers has fallen to fourth in the NFL with 90 receptions (he was leading the league two weeks ago). Despite the team’s quarterback issues, he needs 32 more yards to be the third rookie tight end to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in NFL history, joining Mike Ditka (1,076) and Kyle Pitts (1,026). He will face a Jaguars team that has the worst pass defense in the league (264.3 yards per game). — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: If the Raiders lose out in their final three games, they will tie their longest losing streak in franchise history (13 straight in 1962). After this week, they face the Saints and Chargers to end the season.
Bold prediction: The Jaguars’ offensive line will post its strongest pass block win rate of the season (75%). Going against the Raiders without Maxx Crosby (ankle) and Christian Wilkins (foot) should set up the unit for a smooth day and give quarterback Mac Jones plenty of time to make his reads. — Walder
What’s at stake: This matchup can drastically improve or hurt both teams’ chances at the No.1 pick (independent of other results). The Raiders’ odds at the selection increase to 30% with a loss and decrease to 2% with a win, per ESPN Analytics. The Jaguars’ chances climb to 11% with a loss and fall to less than 1% with a win. Read more.
Injuries: Jaguars | Raiders
Fantasy X factor: Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange. Evan Engram (shoulder) is out for the season, which means Strange takes over as Jacksonville’s starting tight end. He looked solid earlier this year when filling in for Engram. He now faces a Raiders defense that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders are 0-1 outright as favorites this season (lost 36-22 to the Panthers in Week 3). They are 3-1 ATS as favorites under coach Antonio Pierce. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Jaguars 17, Raiders 15 Moody’s pick: Jaguars 21, Raiders 13 Walder’s pick: Jaguars 26, Raiders 19 FPI prediction: LV, 56.5% (by an average of 2.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Lawrence, Engram have shoulder surgery … Eerie mood looms over Raiders as Pierce’s job status is questioned
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -1 (44.5 O/U)
49ers storyline to watch: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is averaging 12 yards per reception this season, which is on pace for the third-lowest total of his career. Improving on that mark could prove difficult against a Niners defense that has been stingy with big plays in the second part of the season. Since Week 8, San Francisco has given up only 10 pass plays of 20-plus yards (fewest in the NFL) and is giving up 9.3 yards per reception (second lowest) in that span. — Nick Wagoner
Dolphins storyline to watch: With Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) doubtful to play Sunday, the 49ers are presented with a difficult matchup against one of the NFL’s top run defenses. The Dolphins have allowed only one of their past eight opponents to crack 100 rushing yards (the Packers in Week 13). In fact, Miami has given up an NFL-best 83.3 rushing yards per game since losing to Green Bay. San Francisco might have to rely more on quarterback Brock Purdy, whose breakout game came against the Dolphins in 2022. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has the fourth-most passing touchdowns (13) and third-most passing yards (1,704) in the NFL since returning from a concussion in Week 10.
Bold prediction: 49ers tight end George Kittle will record 5-plus catches for 90-plus receiving yards. No team gives up a higher percentage of opponent targets to tight ends than Miami at 23%. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Dolphins will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss after the Chargers’ Thursday night win. The 49ers will miss the postseason with a loss or be eliminated by seven other scenarios involving wins by other NFC teams. Read more.
Injuries: 49ers | Dolphins
Fantasy X factor: 49ers running back Patrick Taylor Jr. If Guerendo is out, the door opens for Taylor to lead the backfield. He scored nine fantasy points in Week 14 after Guerendo went down. The Dolphins have done well against quarterbacks, at least in fantasy, so this could be a game in which San Francisco leans on its ground attack. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five straight Dolphins home games have gone over the total. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: 49ers 22, Dolphins 20 Moody’s pick: 49ers 24, Dolphins 21 Walder’s pick: 49ers 30, Dolphins 17 FPI prediction: SF, 54.4% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Source: 49ers RB Guerendo likely out against Dolphins … Dolphins’ DuBose to return home after hospital stay … Greenlaw’s return highlighted why the 49ers need to keep him
Buccaneers storyline to watch: Considering what the Bucs did as an offense in a 40-17 victory over the Chargers, the timing on this couldn’t be better. The Bucs’ run game has dramatically improved from last in the league last season to now fourth overall (144.4 yards per game). The Cowboys are giving up 136.1 rushing yards per game (fourth worst in the league) and have surrendered 43 total touchdowns as a defense (third most in the league). — Jenna Laine
Cowboys storyline to watch: If the Cowboys lose, it would be their seventh loss of the season at AT&T Stadium, their most since 2015. They also have a chance to match the franchise record for most home losses in a season (0-8 in 1989). All of this has come after they won 16 straight regular-season games at home from 2022 to 2023. To avoid a loss, the defense will have to slow down the No. 4 scoring offense in the league (28.8 points per game). — Todd Archer
Stat to know: A loss for the Cowboys would clinch their first losing season since coach Mike McCarthy went 6-10 in his first year in 2020. They haven’t had multiple losing seasons under a single head coach since going 5-11 in three straight seasons from 2000 to 2002 with Dave Campo.
Bold prediction: Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean will give up no more than 40 receiving yards as the nearest defender, even though he’ll presumably see at least some of wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Since Week 10, Dean has given up just 0.7 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats — far better than the 1.2 average for outside corners. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Buccaneers’ chances to win the NFC South increase to 93% with a win and fall to 68% with a loss. The Cowboys would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a Washington win. Read more.
Injuries: Buccaneers | Cowboys
Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan. He had 36.5 fantasy points combined in his first eight games and then 40.4 in the past two. Interestingly, he and Mike Evans ran the same number of routes in that span, with Evans barely leading in targets. The Cowboys’ defense gives up the sixth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS as home underdogs this season. They are 1-6 outright and ATS overall at home. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 20 Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 35, Cowboys 21 Walder’s pick: Cowboys 20, Buccaneers 19 FPI prediction: TB, 70.0% (by an average of 7.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rookies stepping up at right time for surging Buccaneers … What does the Cowboys’ 2025 salary cap really look like? … NFC South conundrum: Path to the playoffs, biggest hurdles
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints have played only 18 games at 32 degrees or below at kickoff. They have won the past three, including a game against the Browns in 2022 when it was 6 degrees. But New Orleans doesn’t have Taysom Hill (knee), the leading rusher from that last win, and might not have Alvin Kamara, who is dealing with a groin injury. The Saints also could start rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler since Derek Carr has been out because of a fractured hand. — Katherine Terrell
Packers storyline to watch: It’s a small sample size, but Packers quarterback Jordan Love has shown no issues when it comes to playing in cold-weather games. He’s 2-0 as Green Bay’s starter when the temperature is 32 degrees or lower, which helps as it could be snowing Monday. When it comes to late-season contests overall, coach Matt LaFleur also has the best December/January record (23-5) in the NFL since 2019. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Packers are averaging 6.6 yards after catch per reception this season (third in the NFL). The Saints’ defense is giving up 6.2 yards after catch per reception this season (third highest in the NFL).
Bold prediction: Saints linebacker Demario Davis will lead the NFL in tackles in Week 16. The Saints are heavy underdogs to the Packers, which means Green Bay probably will be out in front and running the ball plenty. Davis has recorded a tackle on 21% of run plays he’s on the field for this season, which leads Saints linebackers. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Packers can secure their spot as the third NFC North team in the playoffs through multiple scenarios. The easiest path is by winning Sunday. Otherwise, Green Bay will need a Falcons loss to pair with either a loss by the Rams or the Seahawks. Read more.
Injuries: Saints | Packers
Fantasy X factor: Packers running back Josh Jacobs. Green Bay is a double-digit favorite, setting up Jacobs for a big workload. He has had 18-plus touches and 21-plus fantasy points in five straight games. The Saints’ defense gives up 23.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, making him a strong play this week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints have been double-digit underdogs one time in the past 19 seasons (plus-11.5 at Buccaneers in 2021, when they won 9-0). They have not been at least 13-point underdogs since 2005. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Packers 30, Saints 17 Moody’s pick: Packers 28, Saints 16 Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Saints 10 FPI prediction: GB, 83.5% (by an average of 14.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Edwards-Helaire joins Saints after being cut by Chiefs … Cooper, Doubs key to Packers’ win over Seattle … Saints bench Haener, go back to Rattler in loss
Texans storyline to watch: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ranks 18th in completion percentage (45%) under pressure among starters, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, the Texans’ defensive line is third in pressure rate (38.2%) and second in sacks (45). If the Texans can force Mahomes — who is dealing with a high ankle sprain — into uncomfortable spots, Houston can position itself for an upset. — DJ Bien-Aime
Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs’ defense showed signs of life last week against the Browns with five sacks and an improved pressure rate (46%) when it didn’t blitz. The Texans have given up 46 sacks, fifth most in the league, so Kansas City has a reason to believe it can disrupt Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Chiefs have had 11 of their 32 total sacks come in the past three weeks. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2024 Chiefs are the second team in NFL history to play games on six different days of the week, joining the 1927 New York Yankees.
Bold prediction: Mahomes will post a Total QBR of under 50. There’s a good chance his scrambling will be limited as he deals with a high ankle injury, so defending Mahomes becomes quite a bit easier. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chiefs can lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win and a Buffalo loss, becoming the sixth team since 2002 to clinch the top spot with at least two games left in the regular season. Five of the previous six teams reached the Super Bowl, though none won. Read more.
Injuries: Texans | Chiefs
Fantasy X factor: Texans wide receiver Nico Collins. Yes, the Chiefs’ defense is tough, but it is still vulnerable. Just look at the big games it has given up to Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Ladd McConkey and Jakobi Meyers. Collins has averaged 19.3 fantasy points this season. He has had only one game with fewer than 10 points. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Texans are 12-2 against the spread (ATS) in the first half of games this season, which is the best in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Texans 24, Chiefs 21 Moody’s pick: Chiefs 21, Texans 20 Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Chiefs 20 FPI prediction: KC, 57.4% (by an average of 2.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Texans OT Tunsil learned from draft-day nightmare … Chiefs to activate WR Brown vs. Texans barring any setbacks … Texans clinch AFC South for second straight year
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: BAL -6.5 (45.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith compared the Steelers’ run game to an old truck earlier this week, saying that it might take some time to get it started, but it can put together some nice drives. In the two-game absence of wide receiver George Pickens, who could be out again this week, their offense became more one-dimensional and couldn’t run the ball effectively. To clinch the AFC North title against the league’s best rushing defense, the Steelers must establish the run early. — Brooke Pryor
Ravens storyline to watch: The Ravens can tie the Steelers atop the AFC North with a win, but they will need quarterback Lamar Jackson to break out of his slump against them. In losing four of his five starts against Pittsburgh, he recorded career lows in QBR (39) and completion rate (57%). The Steelers have pressured the two-time NFL MVP on 31% of his dropbacks and sacked him 22 times. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: For Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, the run of nine straight meetings decided by seven points or fewer is the longest such streak by two head coaches in NFL history (regular season or playoffs).
Bold prediction: The Ravens will have a win probability of over 90% at halftime. Despite their records, FPI views the Ravens as substantially better, and I’m inclined to believe the model. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Steelers have already made the playoffs and can clinch the AFC North title with a win, which would be their first division title since 2020. The Ravens can secure a postseason spot with a win or if the Colts and Dolphins both lose. Read more.
Injuries: Steelers | Ravens
Fantasy X factor: Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers. Since that monster 29.7-point performance against the Broncos in Week 9, Flowers has averaged just 10.3 fantasy points per game. He is still worth starting this week. The Steelers’ defense has struggled against outside receivers, as Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 25 and 28 points, respectively, last week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers are 5-1 outright and ATS as underdogs this season. Last week was the first time the Steelers lost as underdogs this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 25 Moody’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 21 Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 13 FPI prediction: BAL, 66.8% (by an average of 6.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Tomlin hopeful Watt will play against Ravens … QB Jackson’s five TDs vs. Giants sets another NFL mark
Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.
Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.
Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.
Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.
Let’s dive into my Week 16 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.
BINGE
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers offense has by and large exceeded expectations with Arthur Smith at the OC gig and Russell Wilson under center. However, their previous matchup with the Ravens didn’t turn into the points-fest many people wanted to see and it was because their style of attack doesn’t necessarily match up with where the Ravens defense is most vulnerable.
I found it a little more difficult to pinpoint a big concern for the Ravens than I might have imagined going in on the latest Football 301.
Settled on their ability to defend the middle of the field. They allow the most passing yards per game over the short and deep middle this… pic.twitter.com/atJrV8ID96
On the season, the Ravens defense gives up 83.5 yards per game over the deep and short middle of the field, with 10.2 YPA. The unit overall has been much improved of late. Since Week 10, Baltimore is seventh in dropback success rate allowed. However, you can map some of their strong games defensively based on the teams they’ve played in this stretch (Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, Eagles, Giants) that actually activate the middle of the field. Bengals and Chargers, yes. Eagles and Steelers, not as much. The Giants are … the Giants.
While Wilson has been a nice hit for the Steelers, he still hasn’t consistently worked the intermediate middle of the field. It’s especially tough to imagine that happening without No. 1 receiver, George Pickens this week. Pickens has emerged as a true difference-maker this season and the passing game takes a huge hit without him.
On the Ravens side of things, everything is clicking. Even Rashod Bateman is on a tear with this team and is coming off another massive game against the Giants last week.
However, Bateman popped up with an injury this week. With that in mind, Zay Flowers needs to be a big factor for Baltimore in Week 16.
Typically the pure perimeter X-receivers are the big beneficiaries when an offense faces single-high because they get one-on-one matchups outside. Flowers and the Ravens break that mold. Per Fantasy Points Data, Flowers’ 2.85 yards per route run leads the team by a significant margin when the team faces single-high. He owns a 27.5% target share.
The Ravens love to scheme him open for shots off motion, deep outs or double moves as the flanker when those big windows are open outside. Since he can move to multiple spots, it’s hard to assign that single-high safety over the top of Flowers. The Steelers play more single-high than any other defense in the league.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
We get a huge NFC East rematch that will go a long way in deciding the division but also be a proving ground for the ceiling of both teams.
While last week’s passing-game eruption from the Eagles was something we needed to see, I’d argue that we didn’t learn all that much about the team. We know the Eagles can throw all over a defense like Pittsburgh.
I don’t come away from Week 15 feeling like we learned anything new about the Eagles passing game.
We know they have ballers and can demolish a man-heavy, single-high team like Pittsburgh.
Can they have a passing performance like that against a zone-heavy defense with funky… https://t.co/hnC1zkM9B9
For this week, there are some overlaps between the Steelers’ and Commanders’ defense. Washington is ninth in terms of man coverage overall and Pittsburgh is 10th, per Fantasy Points data. That’s a good data point if you’re hunting a huge week for A.J. Brown or looking to start DeVonta Smith.
However, Dan Quinn and his group are much less single-high heavy than the Steelers (67.4%, highest in the league). How Jalen Hurts and co. attack some of those looks where the middle of the field is open will be critical in developing the upside case for this unit.
Washington had a troubling outing in their previous matchup with the Eagles. Their defense shut down Jayden Daniels and co. on offense. This was best expressed in the Quinyon Mitchell vs. Terry McLaurin matchup.
Per Next Gen Stats, Mitchell lined up against McLaurin on 20 of his 25 routes (80.0%), including 19 of 20 when he aligned wide (95.0%), in Week 11. Daniels never threw to McLaurin in Mitchell’s coverage.
A critical change since this matchup is that Kliff Kingsbury is finally moving his No. 1 wide receiver across the formation. It resulted in a big game for McLaurin last week.
Terry McLaurin aligned as the right perimeter WR on 27% of his snaps in Week 15.
His previous single-game high was 15%, his season-long rate was 8%. He spends almost all of his time (74%) as the perimeter left WR. That rate was down to a season-low 58% in Week 15, only the… https://t.co/tX5GFEQsg5
The Eagles corners primarily play sides, with Darius Slay taking 93% of his snaps on the defensive left and Mitchell 95% on the defensive right. Moving to the other side more often will give McLaurin reps against Slay, and that’s a much more favorable matchup.
As long as Kingsbury keeps showing us new wrinkles on that side of the ball, McLaurin should be able to enjoy a better outing. After that, it just comes down to winning the line of scrimmage for the Washington offense, which is easier said than done considering Jalen Carter dominated this game last time out.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
The Vikings offense has been on fire the last few weeks. They are getting some of the best wide receiver play in the league between Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who has actually been more productive of late.
Addison has the highest yards per route run against zone coverage since Week 12. With so much cloud and Cover 2 on Jefferson’s side, Addison has shredded single-coverage situations. He’s really stepped up as a contested-catch wideout this season. To this point, I haven’t really considered him in that “1B receiver” tier with the DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins types, but I may need to reconsider that. The Seahawks defense has been improved over the second half of the season but still struggles at outside corner. Those guys give up big plays and play grabby in coverage, leading to penalties. Addison and Jefferson will be a chore.
However, don’t overlook T.J. Hockenson in this matchup. The tight end has averaged over 5.5 yards per route run vs. man coverage since Week 12, easily leading the team. He’s been a key chain-mover on late downs. The Seahawks play man coverage at the highest rate on third and fourth down.
Seattle looks like it’ll have Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker back for this game. The former is obviously huge. Seattle will still be at a disadvantage facing this pass rush behind its leaky offensive line. However, Smith is a much better sack-avoider than Sam Howell, who posted a 22% sack rate in limited action last week.
Look for Smith to rely heavily on Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this game. Per Fantasy Points Data, when Seattle has faced two-high coverage since Week 10 — Minnesota has been among the most two-high-heavy defenses this season — JSN paces the team with a 3.2 yards per route run, while DK Metcalf sits just above 1.0. It’s not a coverage look that favors deep outside-the-number passes to begin with, and Seattle’s quarterbacks rarely have the time to uncork those throws behind their offensive line.
The return of Walker makes the backfield complicated. Seattle has gotten some of the best rushing performances of the season in the last few games with Zach Charbonnet operating as the feature back. He’s been able to establish a clear rhythm as the top dog. If this backfield is split again, neither back is an easy projection.
STREAM
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Most important Texans storyline: The Chiefs are set to get Hollywood Brown on the field for the first time this season. It also appears likely Patrick Mahomes will play in this game. Their connection will be critical to monitor. While most will be interested in Brown’s role as a speed threat, I’m more curious about his usage in the intermediate area of the field.
The area of the field I’m most interested in seeing Marquise Brown work is the intermediate area on routes like the dig, out, and curl…and generally vs. zone coverage.
I think Xavier Worthy is playing better football right now and gives you enough over-the-top. Hopkins can… https://t.co/3BVmiTvfU4
Right now, I’d say Xavier Worthy is playing better football the last month or so than he was at the beginning the season. I think you can count on him enough to be the primary lid-lifter while Brown operates on some more base routes. We may not see Brown get fully ramped up until the postseason but how he’s deployed in his first game back will be critical to track.
Most important Chiefs storyline: The Chiefs allow the most yards per game to slot receivers and rank 20th in rushing success rate allowed since Week 10. Unfortunately, the Texans are pretty ill-equipped to take advantage of either weakness that’s cropped up in Kansas City’s stop unit. Houston is the 31st team in rushing success rate in games Joe Mixon plays and doesn’t have a true target-earning slot receiver. The Texans offense will likely continue its limp toward the NFL postseason.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
Most important Rams storyline: The Rams are one of the best zone-beating teams in the NFL. All three of their most efficient receivers, Puka Nacua (1st), Tutu Atwell (7th) and Cooper Kupp (15th) have a yards-per-route run rate over 2.0 when they face zone coverage and rank inside the top-15 across the NFL. The story against man coverage is quite a bit different. Nacua has an absurd 4.10 YPRR vs. man coverage on the year, ranking second behind only A.J. Brown. They are the only receivers north of 3.55. They are having unreal elite seasons.
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Kupp ranks 30th and Atwell 43rd out of 102 qualifiers. It’s not like those results are overly poor but it’s clear who the lead man-beater on the team is at this point. The Jets play man coverage on 51.3% of the opponent’s late-down dropbacks this season.
Most important Jets storyline: Aaron Rodgers has played like a top-five quarterback over the last two weeks. His 0.35 EPA per dropback is fourth behind Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jared Goff. He ranks fifth with 10.3 adjusted yards per attempt while averaging 9.5 air yards per pass (sixth-most). Even as a scrambler, he’s been highly productive and useful for the offense. Rogers is behind only Allen and Jayden Daniels in EPA added on scrambles the last two weeks. This is all too little too late for the Jets but it can create a productive fantasy environment for the skill position players down the stretch against two high-powered offenses in the Rams and Bills the next two weeks.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Most important Cardinals storyline: Trey McBride isn’t just having a record-breaking season in terms of his zero touchdowns relative to 89 receptions, it’s also the most bewildering. Now, let’s compare it to the other two most recent zero-score seasons by high-volume players. Jakobi Meyers saw 81 targets in 2020 and didn’t score a touchdown. While I am and have always been a huge fan of Meyers as an underrated player, at the time he was a second-year UDFA playing in the Cam Newton version of the Patriots offense. The more recent example was Diontae Johnson who saw a whopping 147 targets (86 catches, fewer than McBride) but didn’t find the end zone. While Johnson is a good player he’s a certifiably weird one who was playing in an offense manned by Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky.
By any metric available, McBride is having a wonderful season and is without question a top-five player at his position. He also plays in an offense that, for all the frustrations some of their pass-game players have provided in fantasy football, ranks 10th in EPA per play. He’s also scored a touchdown as a rusher. That’s what makes this all so strange and untenable. Perhaps he breaks the drought through the air in Week 16 against the Panthers.
Most important Panthers storyline: Over the last three weeks, no running back has seen more playing time in his offense than Chuba Hubbard. The Panthers back has taken 90.4% of the team’s snaps in this span and handled 57 opportunities. He certainly didn’t have a big game last week but he’s in an ideal rebound spot in Week 16. The Cardinals defense has been better in the second half of the season but the run-stop unit is still an issue. They rank 31st in rushing success rate allowed since Week 10, ahead of only Hubbard’s own Panthers. We could see plenty of big runs in this contest.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
Most important 49ers storyline: Issac Guerendo got some excellent usage in Week 15. Despite some questions about his role coming into the game, he ended up playing 77% of the snaps, while the RB2 on the team only played 3.8%. Even better, he was the only running back on the team to receive a rush attempt. He was also an active participant in the passing game, running a route on 65% of the dropbacks and gathering a 12.9% target share.
Now that he’s not going to play in this game, we have very little indication that the coaching staff is ready to trust Patrick Taylor Jr. with any significant work. Given the way Deebo Samuel Sr. has played this season, especially last week after sounding off on social media regarding his lack of production, it’s unlikely he’s about to get more work from the backfield. The 49ers offense has been suffering all season without their usual production from the run game. It could be even worse than usual in Week 16.
Most important Dolphins storyline: Tua Tagovailoa is coming off one of the worst games of his I can remember. Tua went 3 of 10 for 43 yards, 1 touchdown and three interceptions on passes of 20-plus yards, per Next Gen Stats. The downfield game just hasn’t been there for Miami this season and it was less fruitful than ever in Week 15. On the other side, he is top-five in yards per attempt (7.1) and EPA per dropback (+0.25) on quick passes, per NGS. The 49ers have not given up much production on those quick throws this season. Their defense has started to take on serious water from an injury perspective, so it’s hard to know how instructive that data is at this point of the season. Neither team is going anywhere this year but both offenses will be looking to finish the year on a high note.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Most important Buccaneers storyline: The Cowboys defense was able to put a stop to the recent (relative) hot streak by the Panthers offense and give Bryce Young his worst game in months. It was primarily thanks to a game-wrecking effort from Micah Parsons up front. The Buccaneers offensive line will be tested in Week 16 but this is quietly one of the best units in the league. New figures on this team like Liam Coen and Bucky Irving have gotten the headlines. However, don’t overlook the play of rookie Graham Barton at center as a big reason why this offense has taken a leap. Several young holdovers like Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke have improved this season, as well. Tampa Bay needs this crew to continue their strong play to get through this week.
Most important Cowboys storyline: In Week 15 Rico Dowdle set a career-high in yards from scrimmage for the third straight week. He took 25 carries for 149 rushing yards. Dowdle has just been cranking out successful runs on the vast majority of his carries. He’s been an extremely efficient rusher. Over the last four weeks, Dowdle has handled 85% of the backfield carries and averaged 120 rushing yards per game, second among all backs in this span. There’s no question Dowdle has taken advantage of some great matchups against the Giants, Bengals and Panthers the past three weeks but that’s all we can ask from a rusher; crush the cakewalk spots. It’s not as if he will go against a juggernaut this week, as he draws a Bucs defense that allows the 10th-most rushing yards per carry this season.
SKIP
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
One reason to maybe watch: The Falcons had no choice but to bench Kirk Cousins at this stage. It remains to be seen if Michael Penix Jr. will be a tangible upgrade but Cousins was averaging 5.4 adjusted net yards per attempt in games against non-Bucs opponents this season.
At different points this season, I felt that, despite his clear limitations, Cousins would keep the floor afloat for the offense and adding Penix to the mix would create too much volatility. Given how badly Cousins had regressed of late physically on top of the mistakes, that floor had crashed out. Penix may not be ready to access the ceiling of this unit but his getting the start doesn’t change the floor outlook for the pass-catchers. The Giants’ injured defensive line and leaky secondary provide a soft landing spot for his first start.
Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals
One reason to maybe watch: Well, we aren’t watching for the Browns offense anymore. Getting Dorian Thompson-Robinson behind center after the understandable benching of Jameis Winston is a huge letdown for fantasy managers exclusively.
Jerry Jeudy is right now one of only 5 WRs with 1,000+ yards on the season. He ranked 52nd among WRs in receiving yards in the first 7 weeks of the season. https://t.co/NoN1ZXjSBQ
On the other side, the Browns play single-high at the second-highest rate among defenses, per Fantasy Points Data. As you’d expect, Ja’Marr Chase is going nuts against single-high with 60% of the team touchdowns and 3.14 yards per route run. However, much of his work has come on big plays in the open field, averaging 7.1 YAC per reception. Tee Higgins has been the shot guy vs. single-high. His 32% first-read target share is not far behind Chase (35%) and he has 400 air yards in nine games, while Chase has 672 in 14 games. Higgins popped up with a late-week injury in Thursday’s practice but if he’s available this week, he’s in a nice spot to rip some big plays.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
One reason to maybe watch: The Colts’ passing game continues to be shaky but they’ll operate on the other end of the matchup spectrum after playing in Denver last week. Since Week 10 the Titans’ pass defense has fallen apart. Tennessee ranks 28th in EPA per dropback and 29th in dropback success rate allowed. Here’s how the Colts’ route participation played out in Week 15 with Alec Pierce suffering a midgame concussion: Michael Pittman Jr. at 97.7%, Josh Downs 86%, Adonai Mitchell 46.5% and Pierce 44.3%. Despite Mitchell getting more playing time, Pittman and Downs owned the target share with 9 and 8 targets, respectively. If anyone is going to take advantage of this beat-up secondary, it’s those two players.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
One reason to maybe watch: Last week, we saw the Patriots use Christian Gonzalez to track the Cardinals’ top outside receiver around the field. That worked out well for the Patriots secondary overall and Gonzalez, in particular, showed out.
I can’t think of a worse offensive matchup for a game plan like that than the Buffalo Bills. The Bills don’t have a No. 1 receiver but they can hurt you in so many different ways. We’ve seen them go spread and shred to the wide receivers and then get heavy personnel on the field to attack with the backs in the span of two weeks. Joe Brady is operating at an extremely high level as the Bills offensive play-caller. How they approach this game will be fascinating but it’s worth noting the Patriots have been more vulnerable to tight ends and slot receivers. They have given up 90 yards to slot receivers since Week 10.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
One reason to maybe watch: The Lions offense should be the same dynamic force, even with David Montgomery out of the mix. Jahmyr Gibbs may well end up the top back in fantasy football with the backfield all to himself. On the other side, how their defense holds up and whether they continue to lean into their man-heavy tendencies on the backend after cluster injuries will be key. The Lions have played man coverage on 47.1% of opponent dropbacks since Week 10, per Fantasy Points Data, the highest rate in the league. Almost all of the Bears numbers against man coverage are hideous. However, if you’re looking for a silver lining, DJ Moore leads the Bears with 24 first-read targets, receptions and yards vs. man coverage this season, per Fantasy Points Data. And 16% of those targets have been designed plays like screens and such and he’s gained 6.3 yards after the catch per reception vs. man. At the very least, he looks in line for some scammy production.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
One reason to maybe watch: The deck has been completely cleared for Brian Thomas Jr. to be the engine of the Jaguars passing game.
Brian Thomas Jr. Weeks 1 to 11 – 19.7% target share – 25.7% air yard share – Targeted on 20.9% of his routes – 2.29 yards per route run – 6.4 YAC per reception
Brian Thomas Jr. Weeks 13 to 15 – 31.3% target share – 44.6% air yard share – Targeted on 30% of his routes – 2.23…
The dynamic rookie receiver earned this promotion long before the departure of injured veterans. In my opinion, he’s looked like an even better and more consistent player post-bye. His first-read target share is up from 22% in Weeks 1 to 11 to 37.5% in Weeks 13 to 15, per Fantasy Points Data. It’s pretty easy to see he’s the No. 1 player in the concept now, where it was more spread out with the veterans present before. This boost in usage has been key in offsetting any damage done to his weekly outlook playing in a brutal environment. Thomas gets a matchup with a Raiders defense that’s allowed the 12th-most yards per game to outside receivers since Week 10.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
One reason to maybe watch: Other than the fact that this doozy of a game will be the final game that decides a few fantasy football semi-final matchups? I’m tracking whether the Packers can continue to push the ball down the field. While the run game under Josh Jacobs has been electric since returning from the bye, we haven’t seen enough of the successful shots downfield to the outside from Jordan Love. That changed in Seattle last week. Per NFL Pro, Love had his second-highest deep-throw rate (22.2%) of the season. Despite that, he was still extremely efficient overall. The deep passing game being a consistently impactful addition, especially off play-action, is where this offense can really launch to another level.
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The Buffalo Bills showed this past weekend they look like prime contenders to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs as conference and Super Bowl champions.
Josh Allen is playing like the NFL MVP and the rest of the team has followed suit. The Bills held on for a victory over the Lions on Sunday evening. Three strong weeks will be able to solidify that notion if the team is up to it.
Behind the Bills, the rest of the league is jostling for position. There are a handful of teams that have separated from the rest of the pack over the last few weeks. The Chiefs are still in that conversation, as are the Philadelphia Eagles and Lions, even with the loss to Buffalo.
Read below for the power rankings this week.
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1. Buffalo Bills (11-3)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen runs against the Lions during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Detroit.(AP Photo/Rey Del Rio)
The Bills might have the fifth-best record in the NFL, but is there any doubt that they’re the best team? The clinic the Buffalo offense put on against the Detroit Lions on Sunday showed that no team wants to face surefire NFL MVP Josh Allen in the playoffs.
Last week: 4
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)
Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown reacts after his touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Philadelphia.(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
After all the talk in Philadelphia this past week about the passing game, Jalen Hurts had 290 passing yards and two touchdowns while AJ Brown caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles dominated in their win, outgaining the Steelers 401-163 in yards and holding the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game. As the injuries keep piling up for the Lions, the Eagles are hoping they can lurch in front of Detroit in the standings and get the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Last week: 2
3. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes watches play during the second half of an NFL football game against the Browns, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Cleveland.(AP Photo/David Richard)
All it took was a game against the last-place Browns for the Chiefs to get a comfortable win by multiple possessions. But it didn’t come for free either. Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury could put the Chiefs’ hopes of holding on to the No. 1 spot in real jeopardy, especially with a runaway Bills team keeping pace every week. But if Carson Wentz does have to start a game for Kansas City, the Chiefs can take solace in the fact that their defense and running game has been just as if not more important to their success this year than an explosive passing game.
Last week: 3
4. Detroit Lions (12-2)
Lions quarterback Jared Goff reacts during the second half of an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Detroit.(AP Photo/Rey Del Rio)
Maybe it’s Josh Allen riding a crazy hot streak, but the Lions looked like it was the 2023 version of the team after allowing 48 points. That came after close calls against the Bears and Packers during a stretch of three-straight home games in which their point differential was zero, and now they go to Chicago, where it will be in the mid-20s on Sunday. The Lions need a solid performance to make everyone forget about this latest skid.
Last week: 1
5. Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson celebrates after catching a touchdown pass during the first half of an NFL football game, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024, in Minneapolis.(AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
Sam Darnold is back, Justin Jefferson is back, and the Vikings are back. They have taken care of business against two weak opponents, just as they should. They wrap up the regular season with games in Seattle, home against Green Bay and then go to Detroit. It’s going to be a true litmus test to see where this team truly ranks as they go into January.
Last week: 5
6. Green Bay Packers (10-4)
Green Bay Packers Romeo Doubs celebrates his touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Seahawks on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Seattle.(AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)
The Packers proved they are a force to be reckoned with after a dominant victory in Seattle. Jordan Love has turned it on, and they have scored 30-plus points in four straight contests. In fact, they’ve scored less than 20 just once, and that was in Week 2. This is not a magic carpet ride like it was last season. This team could do some damage.
Last week: 7
7. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Devontez Walker is congratulated by quarterback Lamar Jackson after catching a touchdown pass against the New York Giants during the third quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in East Rutherford, N.J.(AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
The 2024 New York Giants have not been included in conversations about the NFL’s elite teams. At times this season, the Baltimore Ravens have looked to be among the league’s best teams. The Ravens took care of business against the Giants. Lamar Jackson threw for an impressive five touchdowns. Baltimore now shifts its focus to a high-stakes AFC North matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Last week: 8
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson runs with the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the Eagles on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Philadelphia.(AP Photo/Derik Hamilton)
Although the Steelers dropped this past Sunday’s game to the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh held on to its lead in the AFC North. But this Saturday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens will be critical. The Steelers hope to get a couple of their key players healthy down the stretch. Star pass rusher TJ Watt suffered an ankle injury during the loss to the Eagles, while wide receiver George Pickens has missed the past couple of weeks with a hamstring injury.
Last week: 6
9. Houston Texans (9-5)
Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) celebrates scoring a touchdown with teammate wide receiver Tank Dell during the first half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Houston.(AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
A big win over the Miami Dolphins and a crucial loss by a divisional opponent led the Houston Texans to win their second straight AFC South title on Sunday. The Texans’ defense has played a crucial role in the team’s 9-5 record, but CJ Stroud’s continued growth week after week has meant both sides of the ball are finally playing complimentary football – just in time for the playoffs.
Last week: 11
10. Washington Commanders (9-5)
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the first half of an NFL football game against the Saints in New Orleans, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024.(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
It is better to win ugly than to lose pretty, and that was certainly the case for the Commanders. If the Saints converted the two-point conversion as time expired, it would have been a significant blow to the Commanders’ playoff chances. However, the Commanders held on and now remain in control of their playoff destiny for the rest of the season. One of the positives for Washington is that the Jayden Daniels-Terry McLaurin connection has been one of the best in football this season. The pair connected for two touchdowns in the win.
Last week: 10
11. Denver Broncos (9-5)
Broncos’ Adam Trautman celebrates his touchdown with Bo Nix during the first half of an NFL football game on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Denver.(AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)
The Broncos are gaining more momentum with each snap. They only got stronger as their game against Indianapolis went on, especially on defense. However, Bo Nix has had turnover issues for two straight games, but the rest of the team has done enough to overcome it. Nix will have to return to his midseason form if the Broncos hope to keep up their momentum.
Last week: 12
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans scores a touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif.(AP Photo/Ryan Sun)
They’re making a playoff push and with Mike Evans fully healthy again and three teams with losing records on the schedule to end the season, it’s hard to think they won’t get to the postseason.
Last week: 14
13. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert fields questions after an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif.(AP Photo/Eric Thayer)
The Chargers are suddenly a fading team that could ultimately end up playing for their playoff lives in the final stretch of the season. It’s a script that this team has become all too familiar with over the years, and even Jim Harbaugh’s presence hasn’t changed it yet. The good news is the Chargers still have a two-game lead for the final wild card spot and their final two games will be against the basement-dwelling Raiders and Patriots.
Last week: 9
14. Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford reacts during the second half of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara, Calif., on Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024.(AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)
It will be a fight to the finish, but the Rams defeating the 49ers on Thursday night put them in a good spot to capture the NFC West when it’s all said and done.
Last week: 15
15. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
Seahawks’ Geno Smith is hurt during the second half of an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Seattle.(AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
An injured Geno Smith will hurt Seattle’s chances of getting a playoff spot in the long run.
Last week: 13
16. Arizona Cardinals (7-7)
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray takes the field prior to an NFL football game against the New England Patriots, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz.(AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
A good win against the Patriots may carry their momentum toward the Carolina Panthers games. Arizona will need a victory to keep pace before a pivotal matchup against the Rams in Week 17.
Last week: 17
17. San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy jogs off the field after an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Rams in Santa Clara, Calif., Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024.(AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)
Somebody has to win the NFC West. The 49ers are a long shot at this point and the schedule going forward doesn’t do them any favors. It starts with the Dolphins on Sunday.
Last week: 16
18. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow passes during the first half of an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Nashville, Tenn.(AP Photo/George Walker IV)
Joe Burrow has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season. Despite throwing a couple of interceptions against the hapless Titans, Burrow’s three touchdowns and dazzling playmaking helped the Bengals secure their sixth win of the season. Cincinnati might not end up in the playoffs, but the Bengals front office will have some tough decisions to make this offseason.
Last week: 19
19. Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London, center, celebrates after a touchdown against the Raiders during the first half of an NFL football game, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024, in Las Vegas.(AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
They broke a four-game losing skid, which is appropriate because they are still equally broken. Kirk Cousins and the offense are not meshing. They don’t fully maximize their stars and the secondary is suspect.
Last week: 20
20. Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel directs from the sideline during the first half of an NFL football game against the Texans, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Houston.(AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)
The Dolphins had to win on Sunday to keep any shred of hope of a postseason run alive, and they couldn’t get it done. Now the questions turn to head coach Mike McDaniel’s future. Could Miami move on from him? It’s possible.
Last week: 18
21. Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson leaves the field after an NFL football game against the Broncos on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Denver.(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
The Colts are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs after a brutal 31-13 loss to the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Too many turnovers, a lack of consistent play from second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson and several miscues on the field could come back to haunt Indy as they sit two games out of the AFC’s final playoff spot.
Last week: 21
22. Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb celebrates a score with quarterback Cooper Rush against the Carolina Panthers during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Charlotte, N.C.(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)
Even with the win, the Cowboys’ chances of making the playoffs are less than 1%. What might matter more, however, is that if the Cowboys keep winning games down the stretch, Jerry Jones might be inclined to keep head coach Mike McCarthy around for another season. It would have been easy for the Cowboys to quit on the season after losing to the Bengals and then having to go on the road on a short week. But the Cowboys came out to play and rolled over the Panthers, an encouraging sign for McCarthy as the players show up for him.
Last week: 22
23. New Orleans Saints (5-9)
Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler throws a pass in the second half of an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders in New Orleans, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024.(AP Photo/Butch Dill)
It takes courage to bypass an extra point to tie the game on the last play of the game and instead go for the win. Didn’t work, but tip of the hat.
Last week: 23
24. Chicago Bears (4-10)
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams throws a pass against the Minnesota Vikings during the second half of an NFL football game, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024, in Minneapolis.(AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
Just when we thought the Bears had figured something out and were looking to turn the corner, they find themselves right back in the ditch. They have been non-competitive in two straight games, which is surprising considering in their previous three games they lost by a combined seven points. They wrap up the season with home games against the Lions and Seahawks before heading to Green Bay in Week 18. Not fun.
Last week: 24
25. New York Jets (4-10)
New York Jets wide receiver Davante Adams can’t hang onto a pass against the Jaguars during the first half of an NFL football game on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Jacksonville, Fla.(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Of course, the week after the Jets were officially eliminated from playoff contention, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams turned back the clock and put on a performance reminiscent of their days with the Green Bay Packers to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Last week: 27
26. Carolina Panthers (3-11)
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young passes against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Charlotte, N.C.(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)
Get them to the offseason already.
Last week: 26
27. Cleveland Browns (3-11)
Browns quarterback Jameis Winston makes the catch against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Cleveland.(AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
Jameis Winston has handled the starting quarterback duties for the Browns for the past seven games. While the Browns’ average points and yards per game have increased under Winston, the team has also experienced an uptick in turnovers. The Browns have dropped three consecutive games and will look for a solution at the quarterback position for 2025.
Last week: 25
28. New England Patriots (3-11)
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye runs for a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz.(AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
The Patriots still have to play the Buffalo Bills twice the rest of the way, which is probably good news. New England is in play for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, and they don’t need to pick a quarterback. That’s a strong position in which to find yourself.
Last week: 28
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)
Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones (10) is tripped up by New York Jets defensive end Solomon Thomas during the second half of an NFL football game on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Jacksonville, Fla.(AP Photo/John Raoux)
The Jaguars had little to celebrate (outside improving their draft positioning) after a narrow loss to the New York Jets on Sunday. And with both teams eliminated from the playoffs, this weekend came down to bragging rights. On the bright side, rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. managed to break two franchise records.
Last week: 30
30. Tennessee Titans (3-11)
Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis walks off the field after an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Nashville, Tenn.(AP Photo/George Walker IV)
The Will Levis experiment might be over in Tennessee. Levis was benched after his fourth turnover, a pick-6, in Sunday’s rough outing against the Bengals. The offense has struggled all season long and first-year head coach Brian Callahan finds himself in the hot seat with just three games left on the schedule.
Last week: 29
31. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
Raiders quarterback Desmond Ridder leaves the field after an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024, in Las Vegas.(AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
The Raiders seem to sniff a potential win every week without ever closing it out. But these late-game follies have been critical in keeping the team at the top of the draft order. Their ability to blow these close games will be tested against a Mac Jones-led Jaguars team next week.
Last week: 31
32. New York Giants (2-12)
New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers makes a catch in the end zone for a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in East Rutherford, N.J.(AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
The season cannot end quick enough for general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll. The Giants, while decimated by injuries, never stood a chance as Lamar Jackson torched the Giants secondary, throwing for five touchdowns. One of the few positives is rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who had 10 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown while drawing some defensive pass interference calls for the Giants offense.
Last week: 32
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The Fox News Digital Sports NFL power rankings were compiled by the Fox News Digital Sports staff and the OutKick.com staff.
While many bettors would prefer to make Week 16 NFL predictions and Week 16 NFL game picks with narrow lines, others would prefer heavy NFL favorites or NFL underdogs go bet on. Fortunately, both of those groups are in luck thanks to the wide spectrum of Week 16 NFL spreads. Six games have Week 16 NFL odds of a field goal or less, while four have a spread of a touchdown or more. Some in the former category include Eagles vs. Commanders (+3.5), Vikings vs. Seahawks (+3) and Dolphins vs. 49ers (+1).
As for those wide lines, Green Bay is a 13.5-point home favorite over the Saints in the Week 16 NFL betting odds, while Buffalo is favored by 14 at home versus the Patriots. Should you have the same NFL betting strategy with both narrow and wide NFL spreads? All of the Week 16 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 16 NFL picks now. Plus, get the model’s full Week 16 NFL score predictions here.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 27-11 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 207-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 61-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 16 NFL odds and NFL betting lines and locked in betting picks for every NFL matchup. You can find them all here.
Where to bet NFL games
Below is a comparison of the various welcome promotions available along with reviews of the major sportsbooks and their current promo offers.
Thursday, Dec. 19
Thursday Night Football: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 42.5)
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Channel: Prime Video
The last three games between these two teams have averaged 31.7 total points, with all of them combining for fewer than 40 points. These teams have given up the exact same number of points in the 2024 season (247), and their 17.6 points allowed per game are tied for the fewest in the NFL.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 27-11 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, projects just two players to have more than 55 scrimmage yards, which could be beneficial with NFL prop bets. See the NFL projections here.
Saturday, Dec. 21
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5, 39.5)
Time: 1 p.m. ET Channel: NBC
Patrick Mahomes (high ankle sprain) is shaping up to be a game-time decision. The last five games between these teams have averaged 64.2 total points. Each of the five had at least 54 combined points. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) practiced fully on Tuesday.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 207-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 61-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, projects one side of the spread to hit well over 50% of the time, and the model says one side of the total also hits in well over 50% of simulations. See the NFL projections here.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 45)
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET Channel: FOX
Lamar Jackson has lost each of his last four starts versus Pittsburgh, with tour total touchdowns versus eight turnovers. Jackson has never rushed for a touchdown against Pittsburgh in his NFL career, while Russell Wilson has just one passing touchdown over his last three games against Baltimore.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects one team to allow nine more points than its season average, and it projects one team to average under 3.5 yards per carry. See the NFL projections here.
Sunday, Dec. 22
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 48)
Time: 1 p.m. ET Channel: CBS/Paramount+
Jameis Winston has eight interceptions over his last three games and ranks fourth in picks (12) despite ranking 24th in pass attempts. Cleveland’s 4-10 record against the spread (ATS) is the second-worst in the NFL, however, the Bengals have covered just once at home, going 1-5 ATS in Cincinnati.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 27-11 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations in an A-rated pick. Get the model’s coveted A-rated pick here.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 41)
Time: 1 p.m. ET Channel: FOX
Both teams have seen the Under go 9-5 this season. The Under is 5-1 over the Falcons last six games, while the Under is 8-3 in Giants games when the total is 40 or more. Kirk Cousins leads the NFL with 16 interceptions, while New York ranks last in the league with nine passing touchdowns.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 207-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 61-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one defense will score more Fantasy points than any running back, receiver or tight end on the opposing team. Get more NFL projections here.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (+4.5, 47)
Time: 1 p.m. ET Channel: FOX
Carolina has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams, and the Panthers have also covered in four of their last five games of the 2024 NFL season. Bryce Young is coming off a game in which he was sacked a season-high of six times and also had a career-high of four turnovers (two interceptions, two lost fumbles).
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects two players to have nearly 100 yards from scrimmage while another player has at least six receptions. See who they are right here.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+7, 48)
Time: 1 p.m. ET Channel: FOX
The Lions are 0-3 ATS over their last three games, which matches the number of ATS defeats they had over their previous 18 games. The Bears enter this game on an eight-game losing streak, which is tied for the second-longest in franchise history. After losing on MNF in Week 15, Chicago is 1-3 ATS with a rest disadvantage since 2022, while the Lions are 8-3 ATS when they have more rest than their opponents over that stretch.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 27-11 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, says three players have over 80 scrimmage yards, while another four players have at least 50 total yards. See the NFL projections here.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4, 42.5)
Time: 1 p.m. ET Channel: CBS/Paramount+
These teams combined for 11 turnovers in last week’s defeats as Tennessee had six versus Cincinnati, while Indy had five against Denver. Four of the last five meetings between these two have seen 41 or fewer points scored. Their last matchup — a 20-17 Colts victory in Week 6 — saw both teams finish with fewer than 270 total yards.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 207-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 61-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one quarterback has nearly a 100% chance of throwing an interception. See the NFL projections here.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (+3.5, 46.5)
Time: 1 p.m. ET Channel: CBS/Paramount+
The Rams are 4-0 over their last four trips to MetLife Stadium and are 4-1 over their last five road games versus the Jets. The Rams played last Thursday, but they are just 1-6 ATS when they have a rest advantage since 2022. Meanwhile, the Jets are 5-4 ATS when they have less rest than their opponent since 2022.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says one side of the total hits in almost 60% of simulations. See which side of the total is a must-back here.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (+3.5, 45.5)
Time: 1 p.m. ET Channel: FOX
The last four matchups between these two have averaged 57.8 combined points. Jayden Daniels’ 656 rushing yards are the second-most among quarterbacks, while Jalen Hurts’ 14 rushing touchdowns are the most among all players in the 2024 season.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 27-11 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, forecasts one side of the total to hit 60% of the time. See which side of the total is a must-back here.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (+3, 43)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET Channel: FOX
Seattle has won five straight home games versus the Vikings, but the Seahawks are just 2-6 ATS at home this season, which is the fourth-worst ATS record in the league. The Vikings are on a seven-game winning streak and are 4-2-1 ATS over this run.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 207-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 61-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, projects there to be at least 10 total sacks plus turnovers, which could be beneficial with Fantasy picks and NFL prop bets. Get the NFL projections here.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-14, 46.5)
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Channel: CBS/Paramount+
Teams that are underdogs of at least 12 points this season are 0-6 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. During New England’s current four-game losing streak, it is 1-3 ATS and has seen the Over hit all four times. Meanwhile, the Over is 5-1 over the Bills’ last six games.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, forecasts one team’s defense to score more Fantasy points than any non-quarterback, and it projects one team to have six players with at least 40 yards from scrimmage. See who they are right here.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5, 39.5)
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Channel: CBS/Paramount+
The Raiders have committed the second-most turnovers (28) and also have forced the second-fewest turnovers (nine). Meanwhile, the Jags have the fewest takeaways (eight) in the league and have also given up the most total yards this season. The Under is a combined 5-1 for the teams over the last three weeks.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 27-11 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, says one side of the total hits in well over 60% of simulations. See which side of the total is a must-back here.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44.5)
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Channel: CBS/Paramount+
San Francisco is 4-1 straight-up over its last five games in the Eastern Time Zone. The 49ers are coming off a loss to the Rams in which San Fran failed to score a touchdown, and the Niners have gone without a passing touchdown in two of their last three games. Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a three-interception game, after having no picks in each of his previous four games.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 207-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 61-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says seven different players will have at least 50 scrimmage yards, including one having 90 total yards. See who they are right here.
Sunday Night Football: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (+4, 48.5)
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Channel: NBC
Dallas is 1-6 ATS at home this season, the second-worst mark in the league, though the Cowboys are 3-1 ATS over their last four games overall. Tampa is also 3-1 versus the spread over its last four and enters this contest with four consecutive outright wins.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects five different players to have well over 70 scrimmage yards, including one having 90 yards. See who they are right here.
Monday, Dec. 23
Monday Night Football: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-13.5, 42)
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Channel: ABC/ESPN
Derek Carr (hand) is doubtful to play, while Alvin Kamara (groin) is questionable after leaving last week’s game early. Green Bay has covered in four straight games, which followed it going 0-4 ATS over its prior four. The Over is just 1-4 for New Orleans in Darren Rizzi’s five games as interim head coach.
Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 207-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 61-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations, while one side of the total hits nearly 60% of the time. See which sides to back here.
There is a team lurking in the NFC that nobody will want to play come playoff time.
It’s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I thought the Bucs could be a playoff team this season. In fact, I picked them to win the NFC South. But after watching them do what they did to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, I am even more impressed by what they are as a team.
After falling behind, 17-10, in the second quarter, looking like a team that would flounder on the road, the Bucs scored 30 unanswered points in the second half on their way to a 40-17 blowout.
The Bucs had 505 total yards, 222 on the ground, and Baker Mayfield threw four touchdown passes against the league’s top-ranked scoring defense. The Tampa Bay defense harassed Justin Herbert all day long and limited him to 195 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. In the second half, he couldn’t do much of anything.
The Bucs are now 8-6 heading to the final three games, leading the NFC South. Mayfield is a big reason why. He has 32 passing touchdowns, the most of his career. He threw two to Mike Evans on Sunday, both on big plays for the veteran receiver. When you combine a tough, bruising running attack with Mayfield’s right arm, the offense is tough to stop.
The defense has had injury issues all season, but getting their corners healthy and getting defensive lineman Calijah Kancey going has been big for that unit. The starting safeties are still out, but the backups held up against Herbert.
Tampa Bay is up to 12th in my Power Rankings this week. It closes the season with a road game at Dallas this week, followed by home games against the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints. Those teams have a combined record of 14-28, which means the Bucs have a real shot to run the table.
If they do, they’ll win the NFC South, clinch the third or fourth seed in the playoffs and play a home game. Like I said, nobody will want to play this team in the postseason. They can score on anybody and when the defense is healthy, that unit can be really good — a great mix of young and old on that side of the ball.
Tampa Bay showed last year it could win with Mayfield and gang in the playoffs. Now they are seasoned some, which should make them even more dangerous this time around. That’s why they have to be considered a team that can go on a run in the playoffs and seem to be getting hot at just the right time.
Biggest Movers
Rk
Teams
Chg
Rcrd
1
Chiefs
They are back in the top spot with the Detroit Lions losing. The injury to Patrick Mahomes could impact whether they get the top seed in the AFC, especially with three games in 10 days.
1
13-1-0
2
Eagles
They keep on rolling in the NFC East, and the passing game came alive against the Steelers. But they do face a tough game on the road against the Commanders this week.
1
12-2-0
3
Bills
Winning at Detroit against the Lions was a big statement game. The past two weeks have showed that to beat this team, you might need to score 40 or more. Josh Allen is the MVP right now.
2
11-3-0
4
Lions
The defense just isn’t good enough. That could be the undoing for this dynamic offensive-led team. The loss to the Bills exposed that defense, and now they have more injury losses with defensive tackle Alim McNeill and corner Carlton Davis. It’s a shame.
3
12-2-0
5
Vikings
It was a little disjointed against the Bears, but they just keep on winning. They face a tough road game at Seattle this week as they eye the potential division title.
1
12-2-0
6
Packers
They showed a physical brand of football in beating up on the Seahawks on Sunday night. This team is a real threat in the NFC.
1
10-4-0
7
Steelers
The offense was lifeless in the loss to the Eagles. That opens up new questions about Russell Wilson as they head to Baltimore to play the Ravens.
1
10-4-0
8
Ravens
They came out of their bye with an impressive beatdown of the Giants. Now comes a monster divisional game with the Steelers.
—
9-5-0
9
Broncos
Bo Nix had a rough outing against the Colts, but they still found a way to win a game where he didn’t play well. The defense makes a lot of big plays.
2
9-5-0
10
Commanders
They looked dominant for much of the game against the Saints, but wilted late and made it a close game. They can’t do that this week against the Eagles or they will pay.
2
9-5-0
11
Rams
They now lead the NFC West, which is amazing. Sean McVay deserves a ton of credit for getting this team to this position.
2
8-6-0
12
Buccaneers
As they get healthier, they get better. Baker Mayfield is having his best season yet.
2
8-6-0
13
Chargers
That was a horrible showing against the Bucs. They have lost two straight and now face a big Thursday game on the road against the Broncos.
4
8-6-0
14
Texans
They have clinched the AFC South, but the next three weeks have to be about getting right for the playoffs. It’s still not like we expected so far for their offense.
1
9-5-0
15
Seahawks
They got pushed around by the Packers and now face a tough final three games with Geno Smith banged up. Their playoff chances don’t look great.
5
8-6-0
16
Cardinals
They impressed in beating up on the Patriots to keep their playoff hopes alive. Kyler Murray bounced back after a few tough games.
1
7-7-0
17
Colts
The Jonathan Taylor mistake of dropping the ball as he went into the end zone could end up costing them a chance to make the playoffs. What a horrible play that turned a victory into a loss against the Broncos.
1
6-8-0
18
Bengals
It’s a shame they probably won’t make the playoffs because the offense is dynamic. Joe Burrow has been MVP good all year.
2
6-8-0
19
Dolphins
They are basically done now after losing to the Texans. Tua Tagovailoa had a rough day on a stage where they needed him to be better.
1
6-8-0
20
49ers
Brock Purdy came up small in a big game against the Rams. They have an outside shot at the playoffs, but they can’t afford another loss.
1
6-8-0
21
Falcons
They stayed alive in the division race by beating the Raiders on Monday night, but it sure wasn’t pretty. Kirk Cousins still doesn’t look right.
—
7-7-0
22
Cowboys
They showed some fight in beating up on the Panthers. The defense played really well as Dallas’ slim playoff hopes remain alive.
4
6-8-0
23
Bears
This season continues to spiral downward. The offense just isn’t very good right now, and it’s time to start looking to 2025 and a new coach.
1
4-10-0
24
Browns
Jameis Winston still makes way too many mistakes, which is why he was benched against the Chiefs. They have quarterback issues heading into next season.
—
3-11-0
25
Saints
A season that started with so much hope is ending on a downer. They have a challenging offseason for whoever is coaching this group.
2
5-9-0
26
Panthers
So much for the strides Bryce Young was making playing quarterback. He wasn’t good in the loss to the Cowboys.
1
3-11-0
27
Jets
Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams was the difference in beating the Jaguars last week. It’s a bit of a tease for Jets fans since they expected to see so much more of that.
3
4-10-0
28
Jaguars
They have a star in receiver Brian Thomas Jr., which is good for the future. He is going to be special for whoever coaches this team and for Trevor Lawrence.
1
3-11-0
29
Titans
Will Levis could be done as their starter. It just didn’t work. They need to get a quarterback in the offseason.
1
3-11-0
30
Patriots
Drake Maye didn’t do much in the Pats’ loss to the Cardinals. They need to loosen things up a bit and let him throw it around in the final three games.
1
3-11-0
31
Giants
Things are so bad that it’s hard to imagine there won’t be changes — big changes. Can Brian Daboll keep his job?
—
2-12-0
32
Raiders
With Desmond Ridder at quarterback, they have no chance. They are on their way to getting their quarterback in the draft next April.
