Tag: Storylines

  • College football bowl preview: Storylines to know and players to watch

    The 2024-25 bowl season is right around the corner, kicking off with the Cricket Celebration Bowl (Jackson State vs. South Carolina State) on Dec. 14.

    In a span of 19 days, 36 bowl games will be played — on top of the College Football Playoff.

    Our college football experts provide their thoughts on all 36 bowl matchups, including key storylines to follow and a player to keep an eye on in every game.

    Get ready, because it’s an exciting time of the year!

    Jump to bowl games:
    Dec. 14-19 | Dec. 20-27
    Dec. 28-Jan. 4

    Bowl games

    Cricket Celebration Bowl
    Atlanta
    Dec. 14, noon ET (ABC)

    Jackson State

    Season storyline: The Tigers, who were picked third in the SWAC East preseason poll, won their third conference championship in four years, and the first for coach T.C. Taylor. Jackson State overcame adversity in the title game after quarterback Jacobian Morgan was injured just before halftime. Zy McDonald came off the bench and rushed for 95 yards and passed for 75, accounting for two total touchdowns.

    Player to watch: RB Irv Mulligan, the 2024 SWAC Player of the Year. The 5-foot-10, 205-pound back and Walter Payton Award finalist had 116 yards rushing in the SWAC championship against Southern and was named first-team All-SWAC at running back. Mulligan passed Jackson State and NFL great Walter Payton’s single-season rushing yards record (1,139), which Payton set in 1973.

    South Carolina State
    Season storyline: Replacing a legend like Buddy Pugh isn’t a small task, and Chennis Berry and his South Carolina State Bulldogs performed up to that task in 2024. The Bulldogs went 5-0 in MEAC play, en route to a 9-2 season overall after being picked fourth in the preseason poll. South Carolina State played spoiler in Deion Sanders’ first year as Jackson State’s head coach in 2021, defeating them in the Celebration Bowl 31-10. Now, Berry will have an opportunity to do the same in T.C. Taylor’s first appearance as head coach.

    Player to watch: QB Eric Phoenix. He has a successful transfer story after coming in from Murray State and being named first-team All-MEAC. Prior to his time at Murray, he was with Berry at Benedict College. At Benedict, Berry and Phoenix won the SIAC championship and reached the NCAA Division II playoffs for the first time in school history. His dynamic play has translated nicely in his grad transfer season and could culminate in a Cricket Celebration Bowl victory. — Harry Lyles Jr.

    ESPN BET early line: Jackson State -1.5


    IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
    Montgomery, Alabama
    Dec. 14, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    South Alabama
    Season storyline: Remember that team that dropped 87 points in a game this year? That was South Alabama. In its first year under coach Major Applewhite, the Jaguars have had some explosive offensive performances. Don’t let their 6-6 record fool you, this team played well down the stretch, winning four of its last six games, including a victory over Sun Belt West winner Louisiana on the road just a few weeks ago.

    Player to watch: QB Gio Lopez. When the South Alabama offense is humming, Lopez is at his best. With star freshman running back Fluff Bothwell transferring, Lopez will have to do even more against Western Michigan. Bothwell opened up a lot for the USA offense, averaging 7.5 yards per carry this season with his explosive play. Lopez was third on the team in rushing this season with 463 yards.

    Western Michigan
    Season storyline: With losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State, Western Michigan has some scars from the first couple of weeks of the season. The Broncos went on to win five of their next six games, but then lost three straight before finishing the season with a win against Eastern Michigan. Despite the ups and downs, Lance Taylor gets his first bowl team at WMU, led by quarterback Hayden Wolff and running back Jaden Nixon. A bowl victory would mark Western Michigan’s first since 2021.

    Player to watch: Wolff had the best season of his collegiate career in his second year at Western Michigan. He’s one of the oldest veterans in the sport, having played his first season in 2019 at Old Dominion, before transferring to Kalamazoo in 2023. He posted a career-best completion percentage (67), along with 2,214 passing yards and 17 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He also led the conference in passer rating (147.0). — Lyles

    ESPN BET early line: South Alabama -10.5


    Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
    Frisco, Texas
    Dec. 17, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Memphis
    Season storyline: After a 10-3 finish last year and a Liberty Bowl win over Iowa State, this season was highly anticipated with the expansion of the 12-team College Football Playoff. For the first time ever, Memphis was the preseason pick to win the AAC and for much of the season looked like it might be the Group of 5 representative in the CFP. A 56-44 loss to Navy in September was a setback, then a 44-36 loss at UTSA in November was the knockout blow for those hopes. The Tigers rebounded to finish strong with a win over Tulane and ended the season at No. 25 in the CFP rankings.

    Player to watch: All-everything Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan will return to the Dallas area to play in Frisco, about 20 miles from his high school. Henigan, who threw for 3,208 yards with 23 touchdowns and six INTs this year, is the Tigers’ all-time leading passer with 13,972 yards, the winningest quarterback in the program’s history and, along with Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel and Washington’s Will Rogers, is one of just three active QBs to surpass 100 TD passes in his career.

    West Virginia
    Season storyline: West Virginia entered the season with modest expectations after last season’s 9-4 finish, including a victory in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, a year after finishing 5-7. The Mountaineers opened the season with a home loss to Penn State, then lost two weeks later at Pitt. Embattled coach Neal Brown was fired after a 52-15 loss to Texas Tech on Nov. 30, with the Mountaineers ranking 106th nationally in total defense. Brown ended his six-year run at WVU with a 37-35 record and four bowl appearances. Offensive coordinator Chad Scott will coach the bowl game.

    Player to watch: Senior quarterback Garrett Greene has earned admiration from opposing coaches for his toughness, but he struggled at times this year in the passing game, going 9-of-19 for 85 yards with a TD and two INTs in a blowout loss to Kansas State. His legs make him a threat (he had 22 carries for 129 yards and two TDs against Baylor), but as Greene goes, so goes the WVU offense. He will finish his career in the top 10 in several categories in West Virginia history, throwing for 5,042 yards with 34 TDs and 18 INTs and running for 2,032 more with 27 TDs. — Dave Wilson

    ESPN BET early line: Memphis -1


    Boca Raton Bowl
    Baca Raton, Florida
    Dec. 18, 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Western Kentucky
    Season storyline: The Hilltoppers began the year with a not entirely surprising drubbing (63-0) at the hands of Alabama, but they bounced back and went 7-3 over their next 10 games. Then came Jacksonville State, which WKU edged 19-17 in the season finale, only to lose to them in the Conference USA championship game by a shocking 52-12 result. The Hilltoppers’ defense has been a sieve at times this year (they are one of the five worst teams in the country at stopping the run) and it reared its head against JSU, which totaled 386 rushing yards on the night and a whopping 562 total yards as a team. For the fourth year in a row, WKU heads into a bowl game with five losses.

    Player to watch: QB Caden Veltkamp. The sophomore replaced TJ Finley, who sustained a leg injury in early September and was never able to win the job back. Veltkamp became the Hilltoppers’ starter, and though he had an up-and-down season that included a five-touchdown game against Middle Tennessee and a three-interception game against Liberty, he was able to lead the team to a conference title game. Head coach Tyson Helton clearly felt that Veltkamp was WKU’s best option in the present and near future. Case in point: Finley announced his decision to enter the portal shortly after the season ended. The growing pains are still there for Veltkamp, but he did throw for 23 touchdowns this season and has shown potential to be a capable, efficient option under center for WKU going forward.

    James Madison
    Season storyline: After a historic season last year in which the Dukes entered the FBS, won 11 games, quickly earned an AP poll ranking and found themselves in a bowl game, the second year could have easily been a regression. Instead, JMU lost coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana and stayed well above water under Bob Chesney, going 8-4 (losing two of those games by just two points each) and making another bowl. The Dukes have not only proved that they belong in the FBS, but their defense is among the best in the nation. JMU ranks 11th in stop rate, allowing 1.57 points per drive, which is better than playoff teams Penn State, Oregon, Clemson and SMU. In other words, good luck trying to score on the Dukes.

    Player to watch: CB Terrence Spence. The senior from New Jersey has been a fixture of the Dukes’ impressive pass defense. In 12 games, Spence has 25 solo tackles, seven pass deflections, a forced fumble and five interceptions (tied for third among FBS players). James Madison leads the nation in turnover margin, having forced 26, including 17 interceptions, and Spence has been a crucial part of its pass defense, which has allowed an average of 198 passing yards per game. — Paolo Uggetti

    ESPN BET early line: James Madison -7.5


    Art of Sport LA Bowl
    Inglewood, California
    Dec. 18, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Cal
    Season storyline: The Golden Bears’ season had its highs (“College GameDay” in Berkeley and Cal nearly taking down then-undefeated Miami) and its lows (a four-game losing streak that included Florida State) but it was never boring. A 6-6 season, however, placed them 14th out of 17 teams in the ACC. Though coach Justin Wilcox has helped the program make some strides, the Bears have not had a winning season since 2019, and this year felt like a squandered opportunity. Only one of Cal’s losses (to SMU) was by a margin bigger than eight points, and three of its losses were by a combined four points. Though the Golden Bears are heading to a bowl game, this was a year of missed opportunities for the new ACC members.

    Player to watch: QB Fernando Mendoza. When Wilcox informed the media last week that Mendoza would be returning to the team for his junior year and wouldn’t enter the portal as some expected, Cal fans breathed a sigh of relief, and for good reason. Mendoza was a bright spot for the Golden Bears, throwing for over 3,000 yards, completing nearly 69% of his passes and adding 16 touchdowns too. Mendoza proved his worth throughout the year, especially when he couldn’t suit up in the season finale against SMU because of illness. The offense scored only six points and the Mustangs handed Cal their worst loss of the year.

    UNLV
    Season storyline: Had it not been for Boise State, who beat the Rebels twice, including in the Mountain West title game, UNLV may be preparing for a first-round College Football Playoff game in a few weeks. Instead, the Rebels will go into their bowl game looking for a moral victory without their coach, Barry Odom, who took the Purdue head coaching job Sunday. For those who remain, this season had its share of drama (remember Matthew Sluka’s NIL demands?) but also success: With quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams taking over for Sluka, the Rebels handled inferior opponents with relative ease and lost to Syracuse by only a field goal. The season may have been devoid of signature wins but had plenty of highlights for the program to hang its hat on.

    Player to watch: WR Ricky White. The senior may have been stifled against the Broncos, but he remains an electric figure on the field who is oozing with more talent than perhaps any other player in UNLV colors. This season, White caught 79 passes for 1,041 yards and added 11 touchdowns — tied for fifth in the country. If White opts to return to school for another year and plays in the bowl game, he’ll be a must-watch. If not, the NFL should be getting a good one. — Uggetti

    ESPN BET early line: Cal -2.5


    R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Dec. 19, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

    Georgia Southern
    Season storyline: Georgia Southern delivered its best season under third-year coach Clay Helton, going 6-2 in Sun Belt play with wins over league champion Marshall as well as James Madison and South Alabama. The Eagles challenged themselves early with games against Boise State and Ole Miss.They won six of their final eight games, leaning on an offense with a diverse passing attack. Derwin Burgess Jr. and Dalen Cobb combined for 103 receptions and four others have 24 or more, as quarterback JC French spread the ball around the field. Linebacker Marques Watson-Trent, the Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year, leads a unit that performed well in wins over James Madison, Coastal Carolina and others.

    Player to watch: Linebacker Marques Watson-Trent earned first-team All-Sun Belt honors for the second straight season after leading the league with 110 tackles. He reached the 110-tackle mark for the third straight season and had at least seven stops in every game and 10 or more five times. Watson-Trent also forced three fumbles during a two-game span. The 5-11, 225-pound Pittsburgh native returned from an ACL injury in 2021 to earn second-team All-Sun Belt honors in 2022. Since the start of the 2022 season, Watson-Trent is tied for fourth nationally in total tackles.

    Sam Houston
    Season storyline: The Bearkats flipped their record from 3-9 in 2023 to 9-3 thanks to a defense that led Conference USA in fewest points allowed. Sam Houston surrendered 21 points or fewer in each of its past five games, recording consecutive wins of 10-7 over FIU and 9-3 over Louisiana Tech. A loss to Western Kentucky kept Sam Houston out of the Conference USA title game, and Bearkats coach K.C. Keeler immediately left to take the top job at Temple. Sam Houston had a flurry of players enter the transfer portal last week, including star safety Caleb Weaver, and will have significant personnel challenges for the bowl game.

    Player to watch: Quarterback Hunter Watson. He will need a big performance to give Sam Houston a chance after all the portal departures. Watson is a capable dual threat, averaging 4.1 yards per carry with seven rushing touchdowns to go along with 11 passing touchdowns. He and Jay Ducker will lead Sam Houston’s offense, which must stay on the field and help a defense that will be undermanned after the portal departures. Watson had three 100-yard rushing performances and three games with multiple rushing touchdowns. He also increased his volume of passes late in the regular season, averaging 30 attempts in the final three games. — Adam Rittenberg

    ESPN BET early line: Georgia Southern -5.5


    StaffDNA Cure Bowl
    Orlando, Florida
    Dec. 20, Noon ET (ESPN)

    Ohio
    Season storyline: Ohio University won its first MAC championship since 1968 with a blowout 38-3 victory over rival Miami (Ohio) in the conference championship game last week, making it three straight seasons the Bobcats have won 10 games. But there will be a new look to the team in the bowl game after head coach Tim Albin left to take the Charlotte head-coaching job. Brian Smith, Ohio’s associate head coach and offensive coordinator, will serve as interim head coach. Despite losing six all-conference players from year’s team, including quarterback Kurtis Rourke to Indiana, Ohio (10-3) played its best football the second half of the season and won six straight, which included avenging an earlier loss to Miami in the conference title game.

    Player to watch: The Bobcats replaced Rourke at quarterback with a talented transfer of their own in Parker Navarro, who started his career at UCF. Navarro, a senior, played one of his best games of the season in the conference title game. He passed for two touchdowns and ran for two touchdowns. Both of the quarterbacks in this game are dual threats. Navarro has 2,169 passing yards and 12 touchdowns and 943 rushing yards and 15 more touchdowns on the ground. He has also thrown 10 interceptions. Injuries have slowed Navarro at times, where he was replaced at quarterback by Nick Poulos in the first Miami game after throwing two interceptions, but has accounted for 15 touchdowns in his past four games.

    Jacksonville State
    Season storyline: After starting the season 0-3, Jacksonville State won nine of its past 10 games and the Conference USA championship with a dominant 52-12 win over Western Kentucky in the title game. That win came a week after losing 19-17 to Western Kentucky, which snapped the Gamecocks’ eight-game winning streak. Jacksonville State is ranked 12th nationally in scoring offense (36.7 points per game) and rolled up 562 yards of total offense and 26 first downs in the blowout win over Western Kentucky. It’s Rich Rodriguez’s third season at Jacksonville State, and he has won nine games all three seasons. But he has also been mentioned prominently in the West Virginia head-coaching search.

    Player to watch: Senior running back Tre Stewart and Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty are the only two players in the country to rush for more than 1,600 yards and average more than 6 yards per carry this season. Stewart is a great story. He played at Division II Limestone University in Gaffney, South Carolina and rushed for more than 1,000 yards in each of his past two seasons there before transferring to Jacksonville State this year. He has 24 total touchdowns (23 rushing and one receiving) and teams with quarterback Tyler Huff to give the Gamecocks a potent one-two punch in the running game. Huff has rushed for 1,343 yards and 14 touchdowns. — Chris Low

    ESPN BET early line: Ohio -2


    Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
    Tampa, Florida
    Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Tulane
    Season storyline: Jon Sumrall picked up where Willie Fritz left off in his first year as Tulane head coach, guiding the Green Wave to their third straight AAC championship game appearance and third straight season with at least nine wins. Though it lost in the conference title game to Army, Tulane is making its third straight bowl appearance. Quarterback Darian Mensah (2,723 yards, 22 TDs, 6 INTs) and running back Makhi Hughes (1,372 yards rushing) led them offensively though Mensah entered the transfer portal Monday with three years of eligibility remaining.

    Player to watch: RB Makhi Hughes. The sophomore running back has put together outstanding back-to-back seasons, rushing for more than 1,000 yards in each of his first two years and earning first-team All-AAC honors those two seasons as well. Hughes ranked second in the AAC in the regular season in rushing and third in rushing touchdowns (15). He ran for 100 or more yards on the ground in five of the team’s eight regular-season conference games.

    Florida
    Season storyline: For most of the season, there was widespread speculation that coach Billy Napier might be done with the Gators, particularly after a 4-5 start. But following a dispiriting 49-17 loss at No. 3 Texas, athletic director Scott Stricklin announced Napier would return for 2025. Florida closed the season on a three-game winning streak, including big home wins against LSU and No. 14 Ole Miss, not only rewarding the patience that has been shown Napier but providing a measure of hope for the future — considering the roster is filled with young players set to return. Add to that a top-tier recruiting class that Napier finished off with a bang, and there is finally optimism around the Florida program.

    Player to watch: DJ Lagway. Florida turned to Lagway permanently after Graham Mertz went out for the season in early October. Lagway came into Florida as the No. 12-rated player in the ESPN 300 in the Class of 2024 and quickly showed why so many had such high expectations for him — showing off his exceptional arm talent and his ability to run. Florida was beating Georgia until Lagway hurt his hamstring and missed the rest of the game. This season, Lagway threw for 1,610 yards, 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions and added 97 yards rushing on the ground as a true freshman. — Andrea Adelson

    ESPN BET early line: Florida -12


    Myrtle Beach Bowl
    Conway, South Carolina
    Dec. 23, 11 a.m. ET (ESPN)

    Coastal Carolina
    Season storyline: It was an all-or-nothing season for Coastal — the Chants scored 40 or more points five times and fewer than 20 three times, but November wins over App State and Georgia State secured bowl eligibility (and a bowl home game) in Tim Beck’s second season. We’ll see who suits up at QB, however: Their top two, including starter Ethan Vasko, have entered the transfer portal.

    Player to watch: RB Braydon Bennett. The senior is one of the most explosive running backs in the Sun Belt; he averages 6.5 yards per carry, and among his 112 rushes are gains of 67, 49, 37 and 25 yards (plus receptions of 37 and 25 yards). He was responsible for a lot of the “alls” in the all-or-nothing year.

    UTSA
    Season storyline: A disappointing 2-4 start turned into a happier 4-2 finish as UTSA found its offense midseason and scored at least 38 points in five of its past six games. After going 32-9 from 2021-23, it’s obviously a step backward to have to scrape out six wins, but Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners head toward the offseason with momentum, at least. That’s doubly true if they can finish the season with a second straight bowl victory.

    Player to watch: QB Owen McCown. Last year’s bowl hero began the season in patchy form but caught fire late. Over his past six games, he averaged 310 passing yards per game — five guys caught between 13-24 passes — with a 2-to-1 TD-INT ratio. Not including sacks, he threw in over 50 rushing yards per game in that stretch as well. When he ignited, so did UTSA. — Bill Connelly

    ESPN BET early line: UTSA -6.5


    Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
    Boise, Idaho
    Dec. 23, 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Northern Illinois
    Season storyline: Thomas Hammock’s sixth NIU team began the season with maybe the most momentous win in program history, a 16-14 shocker against a Notre Dame team that could make serious noise in the College Football Playoff. The season got bumpier from there as injuries took their toll on the Huskies’ offense. But the defense remained sturdy most of the way, and NIU won three of its final four games to secure a third bowl bid in four seasons.

    Player to watch: Safety Nate Valcarcel. NIU ranks third nationally in completion rate allowed and fifth in yards allowed per dropback, and while pass rushers like Devonte O’Malley played a role and corner Jacob Finley is an absolute star, Valcarcel runs the show. He’s stellar in coverage but also a heck of a playmaker, picking off two passes, breaking up eight more and even tossing in a pair of sacks via the good-old safety blitz.

    Fresno State

    Season storyline: Following Jeff Tedford’s awkwardly timed July resignation, Fresno State stumbled through an up-and-down season under interim coach Tim Skipper. The Bulldogs started the season 3-1 and reached 5-3 after a pummeling of rival San José State, but they lost three of four in a home stretch littered by tight games. The defense played its part, but with no semblance of a run game, the offense got bogged down quite a bit and went from averaging 35.5 points over the first four games to just 22.1 over the past eight. And since the season ended, seven starters, including quarterback Mikey Keene and star corner Al’zillion Hamilton, have entered the transfer portal.

    Player to watch: CB Julian Neal. Fresno State was blessed with three excellent corners in 2024, and while Hamilton is in the portal and senior Cam Lockridge’s status is uncertain, the Bulldogs still have Neal, a junior who had more interceptions (two) than TDs allowed (one) and allowed a team-low 15.4 QBR as its primary coverage guy. It will be a surprise if either NIU or Fresno State passes particularly well in Boise. — Connelly

    ESPN BET early line: Northern Illinois -2.5


    Hawai’i Bowl
    Honolulu, Hawaii
    Dec. 24, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    South Florida
    Season storyline: After a surprising seven-win campaign in 2023, USF entered 2024 as a sleeper pick for the AAC title but faceplanted out of the gates, starting 2-4. Alex Golesh’s Bulls rallied, however, winning four of their last six to clinch bowl eligibility. After averaging just 23.5 points per game in the first half of the season, they improved to 39.3 per game over the back half. They can still match last year’s seven-win tally, which, for a program that won just eight total games from 2019 to ’22, is still a pretty big deal.

    Player to watch: RB Kelley Joiner. When he thrives, USF wins. Joiner averaged 9.4 yards per carry with 11 touchdowns in the Bulls’ six wins and 2.9 yards per carry with no scores in their losses. Quarterback Bryce Archie found a solid rhythm down the stretch, too, but Joiner is the team’s X-factor.

    San José State
    Season storyline: Seven is becoming an awfully common number in San José. SJSU won seven games in three of Brent Brennan’s past four years in charge and finished 7-5 in Ken Niumatalolo’s first regular season succeeding Brennan. With a bowl victory, however, it would reach eight wins for the first time since 2012. That would be a deserved plaudit for a team that came achingly close to big things: The Spartans lost by nine combined points at Washington State and Colorado State and gave Boise State and UNLV fits at home before fading late. A 34-31 win over Stanford did salvage some late-season joy, and a bowl win would add to that.

    Player to watch: LB Jordan Pollard. The junior from Los Angeles leads the team in tackles, tackles for loss and run stops. With tackles Soane Toia and Gafa Faga eating up blockers up front and Pollard roaming from sideline to sideline, the Spartans have put together one of the better run defenses in the Group of 5, allowing just 4.1 yards per carry (not including sacks), which ranks 18th nationally. — Connelly

    ESPN BET early line: San José State -2.5


    GameAbove Sports Bowl
    Detroit, Michigan
    Dec. 26, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Pittsburgh
    Season storyline: The Panthers had a season of two halves. Behind quarterback Eli Holstein, Pitt won its first seven games, culminating with a 41-13 rout of Syracuse, to jump to 18th in the polls. But then Holstein suffered an ankle injury, and the Panthers remarkably didn’t win again, dropping their final five games of the season in a late collapse. Overall, 7-5 was a solid year for Pitt, given the preseason expectations. But the way the season swooned down the stretch felt disappointing.

    Player to watch: Senior Gavin Bartholomew is set to play his 50th career game, the most for a tight end in Pitt history. Bartholomew has 37 receptions for 303 yards and four touchdowns, all coming in Pitt’s final four games. He’s now one touchdown away from tying Dorin Dickerson (2006-09) for third most touchdowns by a tight end in Pitt history.

    Toledo
    Season storyline: The Rockets started the year hot, rolling past Mississippi State 41-17 in Starkville to start 3-0. But Toledo couldn’t keep the momentum going. The Rockets, who at one point looked like the obvious MAC favorites, lost their final two conference games to fall out of contention for the MAC championship game, including an overtime defeat to rival Akron, which hadn’t defeated Toledo since 2013.

    Player to watch: Both Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross III earned All-MAC honors at wide receiver after combining for 137 catches and 1,712 yards. Newton, however, led the MAC alone with 11 touchdowns. The senior from Florida enters the bowl season with 32 career touchdown catches, a Toledo record. — Jake Trotter

    ESPN BET early line: Pittsburgh -9


    Rate Bowl
    Phoenix, Arizona
    Dec. 26, 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Rutgers
    Season storyline: The Scarlet Knights got off to a promising start, which included back-to-back, three-point victories over Virginia Tech (26-23) and Washington (21-18) in late September. But Rutgers couldn’t sustain that momentum. The Scarlet Knights went three quarters without scoring in a 14-7 loss to Nebraska, which sparked a four-game losing streak. Rutgers bounced back, though, with consecutive wins over Minnesota (26-19) and Maryland Terrapins (31-17) to reach bowl eligibility. The Scarlet Knights routed Michigan State (41-14) in the regular-season finale to win seven games for the first time in a decade.

    Player to watch: Kyle Monangai earned first-team All-Big Ten honors, becoming the fourth player in school history to rush for more than 1,000 yards in two straight seasons. Monangai finished his senior year with 1,279 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Monangai could opt out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. That would create an opportunity for Canadian freshman Antwan Raymond, who rushed for 344 yards and five touchdowns while backing up Monangai.

    Kansas State
    Season storyline: The Wildcats opened the year as one of the co-favorites alongside Utah to make the Big 12 championship game, and potentially, advance to the playoff. But K-State dropped three of its final four games, including one to Arizona State (24-14) and another to Iowa State (29-21), both of which advanced to the Big 12 title game instead. The Wildcats tied West Virginia for eighth in the Big 12 standings.

    Player to watch: Defensive end Brendan Mott finished the regular season with a Big 12-high 8.5 sacks. He also had a fumble recovery and an interception on the way to earning Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year honors. Mott was a former walk-on from Iowa City, Iowa. Mott’s father, Joe, was an All-Big Ten defensive end at Iowa and a third-round pick of the New York Jets in 1989. — Trotter

    ESPN BET early line: Kansas State -7.5


    68 Ventures Bowl
    Mobile, Alabama
    Dec. 26, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Arkansas State
    Season storyline: Arkansas State extended coach Butch Jones’ contract through 2029 after he became the third FBS coach to lead at least four programs to bowl appearances (Jones previously coached at Tennessee, Cincinnati and Central Michigan). The Red Wolves won four of five games, beginning on Oct. 19 with a 44-28 victory over Southern Miss.
    Player to watch: Trevian Thomas was Arkansas State’s lone first-team All-Sun Belt selection. The senior safety finished the regular season with 73 tackles and five interceptions, which tied for most in the league. He ensured Arkansas State’s first winning season since 2019 with an acrobatic interception to seal a 28-21 victory over Louisiana-Monroe on Nov. 24.

    Bowling Green
    Season storyline: The Falcons emerged out of a rugged non-conference slate, which included narrow losses at Penn State (34-27) and Texas A&M (26-20), as a legitimate MAC title contender. But Bowling Green couldn’t get going offensively in a loss to Miami (OH) in the regular-season finale, which sent the RedHawks to the MAC title game, and the Falcons home.

    Player to watch: Harold Fannin Jr. has emerged as one of the top playmakers in all of college football. He leads all FBS tight ends with 100 receptions for 1,342 yards to go along with nine touchdowns. Fannin topped 100 yards receiving in seven games this season. He also had a game-winning, 31-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter against Akron on Oct. 5. Fannin became just the second tight end to be named any league’s Offensive Player of the Year. He’s rising up draft boards, but if he plays in the bowl game, he’ll be the best player on the field. — Trotter

    ESPN BET early line: Bowling Green -6.5


    Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
    Fort Worth, Texas
    Dec. 27, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Oklahoma
    Season storyline: Not a lot went right for the Sooners this season. They were beset with injuries, especially at receiver, and went back and forth at quarterback between Jackson Arnold and true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. Arnold, a former five-star prospect, finished the season as the starter but has since entered the transfer portal. Oklahoma struggled on offense most of the season, and Brent Venables fired Seth Littrell as his offensive coordinator. Co-offensive coordinator Joe Jon Finley is expected to call plays in the bowl game. The Sooners (6-6) were held to 17 or fewer points in five of their eight SEC games.

    Player to watch: With Arnold in the portal, Hawkins is in line to get another shot at quarterback. He started three games after replacing Arnold in the first half of the Tennessee game and led Oklahoma to a 27-21 win over Auburn on the road in his first career start. But a few weeks later, in a blowout 35-9 home loss to South Carolina, Hawkins turned the ball over on the Sooners’ first three possessions and was benched in favor of Arnold the rest of the season. Hawkins has passed for 536 yards and a touchdown to go along with two interceptions.

    Navy
    Season storyline: Navy (8-3) reeled off six straight wins to open the season and moved into the AP poll. The Midshipmen won all six of those games by double digits, but then lost their next two games to Notre Dame and Rice. Navy scored 14 or fewer points in all three of its losses. Navy finished third in the ACC after being picked 11th in the preseason, and even with the bowl game looming, faces its biggest game of the season on Saturday against Army. The Midshipmen have lost the past two games in the series.

    Player to watch: One of the best comeback stories of the season, Navy quarterback Blake Horvath bounced back with a vengeance in 2024 after missing the final seven games of the 2023 season with an injured thumb. Horvath, a junior, became the first Navy quarterback to pass for more than 1,000 yards in a season since 2019. Horvath finished with 1,154 passing yards and 11 touchdowns and also rushed for 895 yards and 13 more touchdowns on the ground. — Chris Low

    ESPN BET early line: Oklahoma -8.5


    Birmingham Bowl
    Birmingham, Alabama
    Dec. 27, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Georgia Tech
    Season storyline: Georgia Tech (7-5) faced a difficult schedule with three of its final five games coming against top-12 teams, and the Yellow Jackets came painfully close to pulling off one of the upsets of the year in college football. After upsetting No. 4 Miami and then beating N.C. State the next week, both at home, Georgia Tech lost 44-42 in eight overtimes at No. 7 Georgia in the regular-season finale. The Yellow Jackets had a chance to win it in regulation but fumbled on third down with a minute to play, leaving Georgia enough time to drive for a touchdown and force overtime.

    Player to watch: Quarterback Haynes King’s toughness was on full display all season, but never more than the eight-overtime loss to Georgia. He became the first FBS player in history to pass for 300 yards, rush for 100 yards and have three rushing touchdowns against an AP top-10 opponent. His fumble late in regulation was a killer, but the Yellow Jackets would have never been in the game without him. King, a transfer from Texas A&M, will be without his top receiver Eric Singleton Jr., who recently entered the transfer portal

    Vanderbilt
    Season storyline: Clark Lea engineered an incredible turnaround this season at Vanderbilt, which has a chance to have its first winning season since 2013 if it can take down Georgia Tech in the bowl game. The Commodores lost 10 straight games to close the 2023 season, and Clark completely overhauled the program in the offseason. The results were immediate, as Vanderbilt started out 5-2 and made an appearance in the top 25 rankings. Along the way, Vanderbilt upset then-No. 1 Alabama 40-35 on Oct. 5, which was Vandy’s first win in the series in 40 years. The Commodores (6-6) seemed to run out of gas to end the season and lost their past three games.

    Player to watch: Few players were more entertaining this season than quarterback Diego Pavia, whose ability to scramble and make big plays added a new dynamic to Vanderbilt’s offense. Pavia started his career in junior college at New Mexico Military Institute, then went to New Mexico State and transferred to Vanderbilt, where he led the Commodores in passing and rushing. He accounted for 23 touchdowns (17 passing and six rushing). — Low

    ESPN BET early line: Georgia Tech -2.5


    AutoZone Liberty Bowl
    Memphis, Tennessee
    Dec. 27, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Texas Tech
    Season storyline: Texas Tech entered the month of November still holding onto hopes of playing in the Big 12 championship game, but those hopes were dashed by a 41-27 home loss to Colorado on Nov. 9. The Red Raiders (8-4) had several big moments and wound up beating both of the teams that did play for the Big 12 title – Arizona State and Iowa State. But in losing three of four games from Oct. 19 through Nov. 9, Texas Tech gave up a total of 135 points. Coach Joey McGuire grew up in Texarkana on the Texas-Arkansas border and was a big Arkansas fan as a kid.

    Player to watch: Redshirt senior Tahj Brooks broke the school’s career rushing record this season previously held by Byron Hanspard. After rushing 1,538 yards a year ago, the bruising 5-10, 230-pound Brooks has 1,505 yards in 11 games this season. He has rushed for 17 touchdowns and is ranked third nationally with 286 rushing attempts. He has been the centerpiece of the Texas Tech offense, and the Red Raiders are hopeful he will opt to play in the bowl game.

    Arkansas
    Season storyline: The Hogs (6-6) need a win in the bowl game to avoid their second straight losing season. The high point was upsetting playoff-bound Tennessee 19-14 at home on Oct. 5, but the Hogs could never find any rhythm as the season progressed. They won just two more games the rest of the way against Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech. Three of their six losses were by a touchdown or less, and with some questions swirling about coach Sam Pittman’s future, he’s set to be back in 2025.

    Player to watch: Quarterback Taylen Green’s best football is ahead of him as he tutors under offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bobby Petrino, but Green showed flashes this season after transferring to Arkansas from Boise State. Green passed for 2,813 yards and 13 touchdowns, but also threw nine interceptions. He’s great at keeping the play alive and tough to tackle. He rushed for 521 yards and seven touchdowns. — Low

    ESPN BET early line: Arkansas -2.5


    DirecTV Holiday Bowl
    San Diego, California
    Dec. 27, 8 p.m. ET (Fox)

    Syracuse
    Season storyline: Coach Fran Brown’s first regular season at Syracuse was an overwhelming success, leading the program to its first 9-win season since 2018 and just second since 2001 (both of those were 10-win seasons). Had it not been for a puzzling home loss to Stanford early in the season, Syracuse would have had a chance to tie the single-season school wins record in this game. It was ranked No. 21 in the final College Football Playoff rankings and had two wins against top 25 teams: No. 13 Miami and No. 24 UNLV.

    Player to watch: After transferring from Ohio State, quarterback Kyle McCord led the nation in passing yards (4,326) and threw 29 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions. He was held to less than 300 yards in only one game all season — an overtime win against Virginia Tech — and was particularly good down the stretch, throwing for 850 yards over the final two games of the season — wins against UConn and Miami — with five touchdowns and no picks. McCord was named second-team All-ACC.

    Washington State
    Season storyline: Wazzu’s season almost needs to be evaluated in two parts: The first nine games and the past three games. Because after starting 8-1, the Cougars rose to No. 18 in the playoff rankings and with New Mexico, Oregon State and Wyoming left on the schedule, they were chasing the school’s first 12-win season. Then disaster struck. WSU was upset in all three games to limp to the finish line, eroding much of the positive momentum it had built along the way. Coach Jake Dickert fired defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle was hired away by Oklahoma at season’s end.

    Player to watch: QB John Mateer was one of the most entertaining quarterbacks in college football, throwing for 3,139 yards with 29 touchdown passes and rushing for 826 yards with 15 touchdowns in the regular season. But with that success — in this new era of college football — comes questions about his future at Washington State. As former WSU starter Cam Ward was last offseason, Mateer would surely be a sought-after player in the transfer portal and if he chooses that route, it would likely mean he would not play in San Diego. — Kyle Bonagura

    ESPN BET early line: Syracuse -6


    SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
    Las Vegas, Nevada
    Dec. 27, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Texas A&M
    Season storyline: After a 7-1 start, Texas A&M looked like it had a chance to do something special — and even after losing two of its next three games — against South Carolina and Auburn — the Aggies still could have played their way into the College Football Playoff. But a 17-7 loss to Texas in the regular-season finale ended that dream, relegating the Aggies to Las Vegas. Still, Mike Elko’s first season in College Station represented a step forward following Jimbo Fisher’s ouster.

    Player to watch: DE Nic Scourton. Assuming he plays, Scourton will be one of the best pass rushers USC has seen all year. He finished the regular season with 14 tackles for loss and five sacks, leading the team in both categories. In ESPN NFL draft analyst Matt Miller’s November mock draft, Scourton was projected as the No. 20 overall pick.

    USC
    Season storyline: USC’s third season under Lincoln Riley was such a disaster that he was forced to address reports that he was a candidate for the vacancy at UCF. Riley quickly dismissed them, but the possibility that was even slightly plausible speaks volumes. The Trojans went from 11-3 in Riley’s first season to 8-5 last year to 6-6 in 2024 and finished with a losing record (4-5) in then Big Ten. If not for a buyout of reportedly in the neighborhood of $90 million, it’s fair to question whether Riley would still be the coach.

    Player to watch: RB Woody Marks. A transfer from Mississippi State, Marks was a seamless addition for USC, rushing for 1,133 yards and nine touchdowns — by far the most productive season of his college career. He was one of two USC offensive or defensive players named second-team All-Big Ten, alongside offensive guard Emmanuel Pregnon. — Bonagura

    ESPN BET early line: Texas A&M -2.5


    Wasabi Fenway Bowl
    Boston, Massachusetts
    Dec. 28, 11 a.m. ET (ESPN)

    North Carolina
    Season storyline: A season that started with real promise hit a road block on Sept. 21 when the Tar Heels were demolished by James Madison, 70-50. In the aftermath, head coach Mack Brown hinted that he might walk away if the team didn’t feel it could win with him anymore, leading to speculation he’d quit. The Tar Heels lost three more in a row after that, dooming their season. The Heels did rebound late, as QB Jacolby Criswell — the Heels’ third starter of the season — found his footing, and tailback Omarion Hampton continued to abuse defenses. But losses to BC and NC State to close out the year left UNC at 6-6 and left Brown out of a job. The bowl game is as much a chance to erase the bad taste of the season as anything, but the future of North Carolina football won’t begin until a new head coach can take the reins.

    Player to watch: The Heels’ defensive front was one of the year’s bigger disappointments, but seniors Kaimon Rucker, Beau Atkinson and Jahvaree Ritzie still have a chance to put a positive spin on the season against UConn. Rucker, in particular, battled injuries all year, but still finished with eight tackles for loss.

    UConn
    Season storyline: UConn had its best campaign since 2010, finishing 8-4 in the regular season. It was another step up for a program considered arguably the most embarrassing in all of college football four years ago, now in a bowl game for the second time in three seasons under head coach Jim Mora Jr. The progress for the program was a long time coming, and the Huskies have built a roster that has the talent to compete at the Group of Five level, including QB Joe Fagnano, who threw for 18 touchdowns to just four interceptions. A win in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl would be another big turning point. The Huskies haven’t won a postseason game since 2009.

    Player to watch: Senior linebacker Tui Faumuina-Brown is the centerpiece of a UConn defense that will be tasked with slowing down UNC’s balanced offensive attack. Faumuina-Brown finished the regular season with 88 tackles, including 10.5 for a loss, to go with 4.5 sacks, six QB hurries and six pass breakups. — David Hale

    ESPN BET early line: North Carolina -4


    Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
    New York, New York
    Dec. 28, Noon ET (ABC)

    Boston College
    Season storyline: This was always going to be a season of change for Boston College, with Bill O’Brien taking over as head coach and a new approach to a system for the Eagles. A big part of that shift was reeling in QB Thomas Castellanos, who was a prolific runner in 2023 but asked to play more from the pocket in 2024. That formula didn’t quite work out, and Castellanos was ultimately benched — a decision that resulted in him leaving the team. After Grayson James took over, however, the offense came to life and BC won its final two games against North Carolina and Pitt. James had four touchdowns and no picks in those games.

    Player to watch: Kye Robichaux and Treshaun Ward have been a dynamic duo in BC’s backfield this season, combining for 1,131 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. They’re a thunder-and-lightning combination, with Robichaux serving as the power back who dominates at the goal line, while Ward is explosive and a weapon in the passing game.

    Nebraska
    Season storyline: Here’s the good news: Nebraska is playing in a bowl game. That’s something the Cornhuskers couldn’t say since 2016. This year, they ended the longest bowl drought in the country, so that’s an unquestionable success story. But, it’s not exactly where Nebraska fans wanted their team to be either. After a 5-1 start to the season, the Huskers dropped five of their next six to finish at .500. Their woeful record in one-possession games continued, too, with losses to Illinois, Ohio State, UCLA, USC and Iowa all coming by eight points or less. And while heralded freshman QB Dylan Raiola had some nice moments, his final stat line — 12 touchdowns, 10 INTs, 6.8 yards-per-pass — wasn’t exactly going to get him into the All-Big Ten conversation. So yes, Nebraska is happy to be here. But it would be a lot happier if it’s fighting for a playoff berth this time next year.

    Player to watch: Ty Robinson is the leader of a veteran defensive front that has been one of the nation’s best at stopping the run. Nebraska ended the regular season allowing just 106 yards per game on the ground, No. 12 nationally, along with just six rushing touchdowns. Robinson had 22 tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage, leading the way, along with John Bullock and Jimmy Butler, who each chipped in with a run stuff rate better than 5%. — Hale

    ESPN BET early line: Nebraska -4


    Isleta New Mexico Bowl
    Albuquerque, New Mexico
    Dec. 28, 2:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Louisiana
    Season storyline: In his third season as the Ragin Cajuns’ head coach Michael Desormeaux delivered a 10-3 campaign that featured a six-game winning streak and an improvement on close games (they lost five games by a touchdown or less last season). Getting back to double-digit wins was huge for Desormeaux after back-to-back 6-7 years following the departure of Billy Napier to Florida. The Cajuns finished atop the Sun Belt during the regular season, and though they lost to Marshall in the conference championship game, the trajectory of the program seems to be headed in the right direction under Desormeaux.

    Player to watch: RB Bill Davis. Despite his youth, Davis’ carries increased and he made the most of them. He led the team in rushing yards (775) and touchdowns (nine) and was an immediate difference maker for the Cajuns in just his first full year. Heading into the bowl, Davis has showed both consistency and explosiveness as he had touchdown runs of 49, 60 and 73 yards this season and could be due for a breakaway any time he touches the ball.

    TCU
    Season storyline: After a disappointing 5-7 season that followed their 2022 national title run, TCU bounced back this season with an 8-win campaign that culminated with the Horned Frogs winning five of their last six games of the season. Sonny Dikes seems to have TCU’s passing offense back on track. This season, it was one of eight teams in the country that averaged over 300 passing yards per game. The imbalance, however, was pretty stark — the Horned Frogs are 90th in rushing attack and only averaging just over four yards per carry this season. The recipe is quintessentially air raid and, though it was good enough in 2022 (when they ranked 79th in rushing) it might need some work going forward.

    Player to watch: QB Josh Hoover. The sophomore had a quiet breakout year and showed his talent as a passer. Hoover threw for 3,697 yards and 308 per game (top 10 in the nation among all quarterbacks) while adding 23 touchdowns plus four more on the ground. The 10 interceptions are an eyesore, but Hoover has shown he is capable of leading TCU’s offense in the near future should he remain with the Horned Frogs for the bowl game and beyond. — Uggetti

    ESPN BET early line: TCU -10


    Pop-Tarts Bowl
    Orlando, Florida
    Dec. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

    Iowa State
    Season storyline: The Cyclones, like Miami, cracked the top 10 in the rankings at one point this season, but a midseason lull against Texas Tech and Kansas upended lofty expectations. The losses were due, in large part, to myriad injuries that had taken their toll on Iowa State, but the Cyclones rebounded nicely to secure a spot in the Big 12 title game before ultimately falling to red-hot Arizona State. Still, at 10-3, this is already the most successful season in Iowa State history, and finishing it off with a bowl win would be the cherry on top for a program that should return a number of key players for 2024, including QB Rocco Becht.

    Player to watch: Assuming both suit up for the bowl game, Iowa State will be the only team in the country to feature a pair of 1,000 yard receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. The duo has been dynamic all year, combining to account for 159 of the Cyclones’ 181 catches and 16 of 17 touchdowns by wide receivers.

    Miami
    Season storyline: At 10-2, the 2024 campaign marks the precipice of Mario Cristobal’s return to Miami, and yet there’s no way to interpret this season other than a disappointment considering what the Hurricanes’ expectations were and the opportunity missed after blowing a 21-0 lead at Syracuse in Week 14. The consolation prize is a bowl game against another team that came up one win short of the College Football Playoff, but the question is just how interested Miami is in putting a bow on a season that fans have already decided is a gift they want to return to the store. That said, Miami is 1-11 in its past 12 bowl games, so finishing with a win here would still represent real progress — even if it’s not the finish line Canes fans had dreamed about.

    Player to watch: The fatal flaw for the Hurricanes all season has been a makeshift secondary that was torched routinely, including by Syracuse’s Kyle McCord in the regular-season finale. Iowa State’s passing game is among the most dynamic in the country, putting freshman corner OJ Frederique Jr.and the rest of the Miami defensive backs on notice. Frederique was perhaps the lone bright spot at the position, finishing the regular season having allowed just 38% completions and one touchdown. — Hale

    ESPN BET early line: Miami -1


    Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
    Tucson, Arizona
    Dec. 28, 4:30 p.m. ET (CW)

    Miami (OH)
    Season storyline: A year after winning the MAC, the RedHawks began the season 1-4 and could have easily been 0-5 had it not been for a close win against UMass. The offense appeared to be discombobulated and its inability to finish drives and score at a high level was putting too much pressure on Miami’s defense. Then, things flipped. The offense found a rhythm and the RedHawks ripped off seven straight wins to once again finish atop the conference. Though they were soundly beaten by Marshall in the conference championship, the way they were able to bounce back from a slow start to the season was impressive. Last year, they could not cap off their year with a bowl win, losing to Appalachian State in the Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl, and they’ll be hoping to change that this time around.

    Player to watch: Running back Keyon Mozee. After getting only 19 carries and running for just 60 yards in his first three games of the season, the senior started getting more opportunities and proceeded to carry the RedHawks through the year. From the fifth game of the season against Toledo through the end of the year, Mozee got double-digit carries in every game and posted six games of 100 rushing yards or more. In fact, the RedHawks won all seven games in which Mozee crossed the 100-yard mark this season.

    Colorado State
    Season storyline: A 2-3 start to the season did not fluster the Rams, who are bound for the new Pac-12 in 2026. Colorado State went on a five-game winning streak, finished second in the Mountain West and were a UNLV loss away from playing in the conference title game. The Rams’ 8-4 season is nothing to shrug at; the program hadn’t had a winning season since 2017, and it appears that coach Jay Norvell has it headed in a positive direction.

    Player to watch: RB Avery Morrow. Talk about saving your best for last. Morrow, a fifth-year senior, had never had a season as productive as this one and was coming off a 2023 campaign in which he did not see much of the field and had only 262 yards. Though there may have been other running backs in the Rams’ room who had more potential coming into the season, Morrow led the team with 956 rushing yards on 166 carries and added nine touchdowns. — Uggetti

    ESPN BET early line: Miami (OH) -1.5


    Go Bowling Military Bowl
    Annapolis, Maryland
    Dec. 28, 5:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    East Carolina
    Season storyline: The Pirates looked to be a sinking ship after coach Mike Houston was fired after a 3-4 start. Defensive coordinator Blake Harrell was named interim coach, then was hired to replace Houston after guiding ECU to a four-game winning streak in which it had more than 500 yards of offense in victories over Temple, Florida Atlantic, Tulsa and North Texas. The Pirates’ winning streak ended with a 34-20 loss to Navy on Nov. 29. The Pirates will be playing in a bowl game for the third time in four seasons, and they finished with a winning record in AAC play (5-3) for the third time since joining the conference.

    Player to watch: Sophomore Michigan State transfer Katin Houser took over the starting quarterback job in a 45-28 loss at Army, the day before Houston was fired. Houser has a 4-2 record as ECU’s starter, averaging 287.5 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. In a 49-14 victory over Florida Atlantic, Houser completed 17 of 22 passes for 343 yards with five touchdowns and ran for another score. He has passed for 1,859 yards with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season. One of Houser’s favorite targets has been Anthony Smith, who transferred from NC State before the season.

    NC State
    Season storyline: Things went sideways for the Wolfpack in a 51-10 loss to Tennessee on Sept. 7, and coach Dave Doeren and his staff struggled to get things back on track. After going 9-4 in 2023, the Wolfpack limped to a 6-6 finish, including 3-5 in ACC play. The Wolfpack had to defeat rival North Carolina 35-30 on Nov. 30 to become bowl eligible. NC State’s Hollywood Smothers scored the winning touchdown with 25 seconds to play in Tar Heels coach Mack Brown’s final game. The Wolfpack will be without defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, who was named Marshall’s new coach on Sunday. Former NC State linebacker Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay will serve as the interim coordinator and call defensive plays in the bowl game.

    Player to watch: Defensive end Davin Vann led the FBS with six forced fumbles, which matched NC State’s single-season record. The Cary, North Carolina, native had 41 tackles, 14 tackles for a loss and 6½ sacks. Vann had three tackles, two sacks and one forced fumble to help NC State rally from a 23-10 deficit in a 24-23 win at California on Oct. 19. One of the Wolfpack’s captains, Vann helped residents of North Carolina recover from Hurricane Helene by mobilizing his family’s moving company. — Mark Schlabach

    ESPN BET early line: NC State -5


    Valero Alamo Bowl
    San Antonio, Texas
    Dec. 28, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

    BYU
    Season storyline: After winning their first nine games, including a 22-21 victory at rival Utah on Nov. 9, the Cougars were ranked No. 6 in the second edition of the CFP selection committee’s rankings. But then back-to-back losses to Kansas and Arizona State knocked BYU out of the CFP and the Big 12 title game. The Cougars rebounded to beat Houston 30-18 on Nov. 30, which gave them 10 victories in a season for the third time under coach Kalani Sitake. The Cougars have already doubled their win total from last season’s 5-7 campaign. On Saturday, BYU announced it had signed Sitake to a long-term contract extension.

    Player to watch: Quarterback Jake Retzlaff excited BYU’s fan base with his strong play in his first season. A transfer from Riverside City College in California, Retzlaff completed 57.9% of his passes for 2,796 yards with 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. In his first start against FCS program Southern Illinois, he threw for 348 yards with three touchdowns. Retzlaff is one of only three Jewish students at BYU, according to The Associated Press, and once brought a kosher food truck to a team weight training.

    Colorado
    Season storyline: If Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders was indeed “keeping receipts,” the Pro Football Hall of Fame cornerback will have a lot to crow about after his turnaround season. After losing eight of their last nine games to finish 4-8 in Sanders’ first season, the Buffaloes went 9-3 in 2024. They were on a four-game winning streak until a 37-21 loss at Kansas on Nov. 23 knocked them out of the Big 12 championship race. The Buffaloes are led by Travis Hunter, a two-way star and Heisman Trophy favorite, and quarterback Shedeur Sanders, a potential No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL draft. Sanders has completed 74.2% of his attempts for 3,926 yards with 35 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The Buffaloes did a better job of protecting Sanders this season; he was sacked 38 times after being dropped 52 times in 2023.

    Player to watch: Deion Sanders said his son and Hunter will play in the bowl game. Hunter is the only player in the FBS to log over 150 snaps on both offense and defense. Hunter is the Buffaloes’ leading receiver with 92 catches for 1,152 yards with 14 touchdowns. As a cornerback, he has 31 tackles, 11 pass breakups, four interceptions and one forced fumble. Hunter had the fifth-highest offensive grade (86.2) among receivers in the FBS, according to Pro Football Focus, and the third-highest coverage grade (90.9) among cornerbacks. — Schlabach

    ESPN BET early line: Colorado -1


    Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
    Shreveport, Louisiana
    Dec. 28, 9:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Marshall
    Season storyline: It was a highly successful but strange season for the Thundering Herd, which won their last seven games, including a 31-3 rout of Louisiana in Saturday’s Sun Belt championship game. The next day, Marshall coach Charles Huff was hired as Southern Miss’ new coach. Huff was working in the final year of his contract and had turned down a chance to extend the deal in 2023. The Thundering Herd moved quickly to hire NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson to replace Huff. Marshall associate head coach Telly Lockette will serve as interim coach in the bowl game.

    Player to watch: Thundering Herd defensive lineman Mike Green was named the Sun Belt Player of the Year after he led the FBS with 21 tackles for loss and was second with 16 sacks. Green, who transferred to Marshall from Virginia, had a sack in nine of 12 games this season. Green needs one more sack to break Marshall’s single-season record of 17, set by Cecil Fletcher in 1986.

    Army
    Season storyline: It has been a dream season for the Black Knights, who won the academy’s first conference title in the 134-year history of the program by defeating Tulane 35-14 in Friday’s AAC championship game. Army won its first nine games; its only loss was a 49-14 defeat against Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium on Nov. 23. There’s still one big prize left, as the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy is up for grabs in Saturday’s Army-Navy game in Landover, Maryland. The Black Knights won 11 games for the second time in program history; the other time was in 2018 under coach Jeff Monken.

    Player to watch: Army senior Bryson Daily is the heart and soul of the offense, running for 29 touchdowns, which is tied with Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty for the FBS lead (Daily has played two fewer games). The senior from Abernathy, Texas, has completed 57.7% of his passes for 877 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He has been more potent running the ball with 1,480 yards on 264 attempts. Daily was named AAC Offensive Player of the Year and was MVP of the AAC title game. — Schlabach

    ESPN BET early line: Army -13


    TransPerfect Music City Bowl
    Nashville, Tennessee
    Dec. 30, 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Iowa
    Season storyline: It has been your typical Iowa storyline: a team that’s really good defensively (10th in points allowed) with some offensive challenges. Overall, it was a good season for Iowa at 8-4, with its only blowout loss coming against Ohio State in Columbus. A number of opt-outs will have this team looking different in this particular game, but for a team that finished the season winning four of its last five and going up against a good Missouri team (that will have its own share of opt-outs), it will be an interesting test for Iowa entering 2025.

    Player to watch: Running back and Doak Walker Award finalist Kaleb Johnson isn’t playing, but Kamari Moulton is. Moulton was the starter to begin the season, before being replaced by Johnson. He had 70 attempts on the season for 377 yards and two TDs, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Quarterback Cade McNamara is transferring out, and Brendan Sullivan will be the starter for Kirk Ferentz’s team, so we could be seeing plenty of No. 28.

    Missouri
    Season storyline: The Tigers were a popular preseason pick for the College Football Playoff. They finished the season 9-3, with their three losses coming on the road and against teams that were in the Playoff mix in the final two weeks of the season. The Tigers can still clinch a 10-win season, which would mark the third time they did so in back-to-back seasons.

    Player to watch: The rest of the receiving room at Missouri. Luther Burden III, one of the best receivers in the nation, won’t be playing in this one. But Missouri is not without other talented wideouts who could step up. Theo Wease Jr. has been credited by Burden for his growth as a player, and Marquis Johnson is another whom the coaching staff has raved about. Of course, Iowa’s defense won’t make anything easy. — Lyles

    ESPN BET early line: Missouri -1.5


    ReliaQuest Bowl
    Tampa, Florida
    Dec. 31, Noon ET (ESPN)

    Alabama
    Season storyline: Kalen DeBoer finished his first regular season with the Crimson Tide at 9-3 and outside the playoff, which might make the Alabama faithful a bit restless considering all the success they were used to under Nick Saban. The Tide’s ugly 24-3 loss at Oklahoma in November (as a double-digit favorite), perhaps the biggest reason Alabama just missed a playoff spot, is also a big source of frustration for the fan base. While there was a big win against SEC champion Georgia and a nice road win at LSU, this season will more than likely be remembered for not only the Tide’s loss to Oklahoma, but also their first loss to Vanderbilt in 40 years.

    Player to watch: WR Ryan Williams. All season long, Williams has dazzled Alabama and college football fans with his spectacular and often jaw-dropping catches as an 18-year-old true freshman. His presence alone makes the Alabama offense appointment viewing, even if the unit as a whole has struggled with consistency this season. You just never know when Williams might do something extraordinary that he makes look like another day on the football field. In the regular season, Williams had 857 yards receiving with eight touchdowns and averaged 19 yards per catch. He finished the season with five straight games with at least one catch that went 40 yards or longer.

    Michigan
    Season storyline: Let’s be honest. The season was saved thanks to a 13-10 win at rival Ohio State that stunned not only the Buckeyes but just about every college football observer. Up to that point, the defending national champions had a season they would rather forget — as the offense struggled with ineffective quarterback play for the bulk of the season. Michigan first-year coach Sherrone Moore found it difficult to replace the production of so many players the team lost to the NFL draft. As a result, offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Kirk Campbell has already been fired. But Moore is now 2-0 vs. the Buckeyes (he was the Wolverines’ interim coach in last year’s game while Jim Harbaugh was serving his three-game suspension) and delivered one of their most memorable wins in the series. Perhaps just as satisfying, Michigan’s win prevented Ohio State from playing for a Big Ten title.

    Player to watch: K Dominic Zvada. While we concede it is a bit unusual to choose a kicker as a player to watch, Zvada has provided the lion’s share of the Michigan offense this season — and is the reason for the win over Ohio State, when he kicked a 21-yard field goal with 45 seconds left. The Bakken-Andersen Big Ten Kicker of the Year, Zvada is the first kicker in school history with four or more field goals for 50-plus yards in one season (he has a whopping seven). His only miss on the season was a 28-yard attempt against Illinois that was blocked. — Adelson

    ESPN BET early line: Alabama -11.5


    Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
    El Paso, Texas
    Dec. 31, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)

    Louisville
    Season storyline: For the most part, Louisville is a good example of how uneven scheduling can make an impact as these power conferences get larger. The Cardinals drew conference games against SMU, Clemson and Miami, in addition to the nonconference game against Notre Dame scheduled by the ACC. The Cardinals went 1-3 in those games, leaving little doubt about where they belonged in the conference pecking order. Louisville was competitive in all those games, which makes its 38-35 loss to Stanford that much harder to comprehend.

    Player to watch: WR Ja’Corey Brooks. After three years at Alabama, Brooks transferred to Louisville in the offseason and immediately became one of the Cardinals’ most important players. The former five-star recruit finished the season with 61 catches for 1,013 yards with nine touchdowns and was a first-team All-ACC selection.

    Washington
    Season storyline: After reaching the national title game last season, this season always figured to be a step back in Seattle. The loss of coach Kalen DeBoer to Alabama and significant roster turnover — due to departing seniors and the transfer portal — resulted in what amounted to a reset for new coach Jedd Fisch. It was clear after losing the Apple Cup in September, this wasn’t a team that was going to be a serious challenger in its first Big Ten season, and it remained mediocre the rest of the way.

    Player to watch: LB Carson Bruener. Bruener committed to UW in 2019, when Chris Petersen was still the coach, then played for Jimmy Lake, DeBoer and Fisch during a standout career. He led the Huskies this season with 93 tackles and three interceptions and was the only player on the team that received higher than honorable mention all-conference honors (he was a third-team selection). — Bonagura

    ESPN BET early line: Louisville -4.5


    Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
    Orlando, Florida
    Dec. 31, 3 p.m. ET (ABC)

    South Carolina
    Season storyline: South Carolina closed the season as one of the hottest teams in the country, with six straight victories — including three at the time its opponents were ranked (Texas A&M, Missouri and at rival Clemson). The Gamecocks thought that should have been enough to at least get them into the conversation for the 12-team playoff, but they finished No. 15 in the final CFP selection committee standings. Putting the playoffs aside, South Carolina had a terrific season, and has an opportunity to win 10 games for the first time since going 11-2 in 2013. The fact it was able to push past heartbreaking losses to LSU and Alabama and end the season as one of the best teams in the country speaks to the job Shane Beamer has done this season.

    Player to watch: QB LaNorris Sellers. If you have not watched Sellers play yet this season, make sure to tune in because boy is he fun to watch. At 6-foot-3, 243 pounds, Sellers has the size to run through people but also the speed to run by people – a combination that has gotten the best of many good defenses this season. That includes Clemson in the regular-season finale as the Tigers had a hard time wrapping Sellers up and tackling him. His 20-yard run through the heart of the Clemson defense with 1:08 left delivered a 17-14 win. He delivers a pretty ball, too, and completed nearly 65% of his passes this season while throwing for 2,274 yards, 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

    Illinois
    Season storyline: What a season it has been for Illinois and coach Bret Bielema, who have gone 9-3 in one of the biggest surprises not just in the Big Ten but the entire country. Indiana might have Illinois beat for best turnaround, but that does not diminish the job Bielema has done any less, as Illinois has won nine games for the first time since 2007. The last time the Fighting Illini won 10 games? That would be 2001. While they did not beat any teams ranked in the top 25 at the time, there were still several solid wins on the schedule, including Kansas, Michigan and Nebraska.

    Player to watch: QB Luke Altmyer. The junior emerged as one of the most efficient passers in the country, throwing 21 touchdown passes to just five interceptions, while adding another four scores and 219 yards on the ground. Altmyer threw for 2,543 yards and completed nearly 61% of his passes, but beyond the numbers he’s as clutch as they come. According to Illinois, he’s the only quarterback in the nation with three game-winning touchdown passes in the final two minutes or overtime this season — in overtime wins over Purdue and Nebraska, and with 4 seconds left in a win over Rutgers. — Adelson

    ESPN BET early line: South Carolina -11


    Kinder’s Texas Bowl
    Houston, Texas
    Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Baylor
    Season storyline: Dave Aranda came into the season fully on the hot seat after the Bears went 3-9 and ranked 101st in offense (23.1 ppg) and 116th in defense (allowing 33.3 ppg). Aranda, who arrived from LSU after the 2019 national championship season where he served as defensive coordinator, took over the play-calling duties for the defense and hired Jake Spavital to spread the field on offense. Baylor started 2-4, with losses to BYU, Iowa State, Colorado and Utah, but suddenly put it together, beating Texas Tech 59-35, the start of a six-game winning streak,, finishing the season averaging 34.7 points per game, 21st nationally.

    Player to watch: Redshirt freshman running back Bryson Washington had 10 carries for 45 yards in three games as a freshman in Waco and had 21, 31 and 28 yards in Baylor’s three early-season losses, and did not play against Utah. But against Texas Tech, he had 10 carries for 116 yards and two touchdowns, and went on to average 136 yards per game when Baylor got hot, including 196 yards and four TDs in a 3-point win over TCU and finishing the season with 192 yards and two scores against Kansas.

    LSU
    Season storyline: The Tigers, breaking in new offensive and defensive coordinators this season, opened with what looked like a heavyweight bout with USC, losing to the Trojans, 27-20, at the Vegas Kickoff Classic on Sept. 1. They rattled off six straight wins, including an OT victory over No. 9 Ole Miss to climb back to No. 8 in the country. But three straight losses to Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida knocked them out of the SEC race before finishing with home wins against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.

    Player to watch: Garrett Nussmeier skipped the Texas Bowl in 2022 after the 2021 season to preserve his redshirt amid the coaching change from Ed Orgeron to Brian Kelly. He said recently he will play in this year’s game while he’s still deciding if he’s going to return to LSU or enter the NFL draft after throwing for 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns with 11 interceptions this season. Nussmeier was MVP of LSU’s ReliaQuest Bowl win over Wisconsin last season, throwing for 395 yards with three TDs. — Wilson

    ESPN BET early line: LSU -2


    TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
    Jacksonville, Florida
    Jan. 2, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Duke
    Season storyline: When Mike Elko left at the end of the 2023 season to take the Texas A&M job, it appeared as though the sky might be falling at Duke. A host of big-name talent left behind him, including Riley Leonard, RJ Oben and Aeneas Peebles. Manny Diaz was hired to rebuild the ship, and most doubted it could be done quickly. Instead, Diaz landed a prized QB transfer in Maalik Murphy and bolstered the line of scrimmage with transfers from smaller schools at lower levels. The unlikely alchemy worked, and Duke rolled to a surprising 9-3 season, led largely by explosive plays from Murphy and an attacking defensive front that finished the regular season with the second-most tackles for loss in the country, trailing only its bowl game opponent, Ole Miss.

    Player to watch: Duke right tackle Brian Parker is one of the top edge blockers in the ACC, and transfer Bruno Fina has handled himself well at left tackle. The pair will be critical in giving Duke any hopes at pulling off a win against a ferocious Ole Miss pass rush. The key to Duke’s offense is the big play downfield, but giving Murphy time to throw will be a concern.

    Ole Miss
    Season storyline: If Duke’s season is one marked by surprising success, Ole Miss enters its bowl game wondering what might have been. The Rebels lost three games, all by a touchdown or less, including defeats at the hands of Kentucky and Florida. Win either of those games, and the Rebels are likely in the College Football Playoff. So, what does that mean for the bowl game? Lane Kiffin’s team might justifiably view this as an unwanted consolation prize, and given the amount of veteran talent that was expected to help propel Ole Miss toward a championship, it wouldn’t be a shock if the roster for the bowl game looks a good bit different than the one Kiffin had at his disposal during the season. Still, Ole Miss remains an incredibly talented team, and with all due respect to Alabama and others, the Rebels could rightly claim the title of best team not in the playoff.

    Player to watch: Sophomore Suntarine Perkins was a standout performer on the Ole Miss defensive front this season, racking up 10.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, eight QB hurries and an interception. Just how many of his teammates on the Rebels’ D-line will be joining him in this game is an open question, but Perkins is enough of a handful on his own to warrant ample attention from the Duke coaching staff, who’ll be desperate to protect its quarterback. — Hale

    ESPN BET early line: Ole Miss -11.5


    SERVPRO First Responders Bowl
    Dallas, Texas
    Jan. 3, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    North Texas
    Season storyline: The Mean Green started 5-1 with only a loss to Texas Tech, then suffered 8-point losses to two of the AAC’s best, at Memphis and home against Tulane. They lost 14-3 against Army, followed by losses at UTSA and against East Carolina. The Mean Green rebounded with a road win at Temple to end the five-game skid and become bowl eligible for the first time under second-year head coach Eric Morris.

    Player to watch: Former Oklahoma and TCU quarterback Chandler Morris threw for 3,774 yards and 31 touchdowns this year and ran for 242 and four touchdowns. He had four 400-yard games this season, including 439 yards and 5 TDs against Tulsa and 449 and three more against Tulane, while leading a UNT offense that ranks third nationally in yards per game (488.7). His father, Chad Morris, is the passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach for Texas State.

    Texas State
    Season storyline: The Bobcats return to the First Responders Bowl after beating Rice 45-21 last year in the first bowl win in school history. It was a breakthrough season in coach G.J. Kinne’s first year after the Bobcats had won four or fewer games for the previous eight seasons. Expectations were high, and they started 2-0 with Arizona State coming to town, the eventual Big 12 champs and No. 4 seed in the CFP, escaping with a 31-28 win. Close losses would become a theme: The Bobcats finished 7-5, with those five losses by an average of 5.6 points.

    Player to watch: Senior Jordan McCloud was the Sun Belt player of the year at James Madison last season, transferring in to take the reins of Kinne’s offense. He’s experienced and well-traveled, making 43 career starts at Arizona, South Florida, James Madison and Texas State, has thrown for 9,828 yards and 87 TDs with 37 INTs and run for 984 yards and 20 scores. This year, he has thrown for 2,920 yards and 29 TDs with the Bobcats averaging 37.1 points per game, 10th-best nationally. — Wilson

    ESPN BET early line: Texas State -7.5


    Duke’s Mayo Bowl
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    Jan. 3, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    Minnesota
    Season storyline: PJ Fleck’s eighth season in charge at Minnesota was as up-and-down as any he has had. The Gophers started with a disappointing 2-3 record with home defeats to North Carolina and Iowa, but they rallied, upsetting USC and Illinois, nearly doing the same to Penn State and pummeling Wisconsin 24-7 in a game that both returned Paul Bunyan’s Axe to Minneapolis and prevented the hated Badgers from reaching bowl eligibility.

    Player to watch: CB Ethan Robinson. The Bucknell transfer earned honorable mention All-Big Ten honors, and you could make the case that he deserved even better than that: He led the Gophers with three interceptions and 10 pass breakups and allowed just one touchdown pass. Robinson and a sticky secondary could make things awfully difficult for the Virginia Tech offense.

    Virginia Tech
    Season storyline: Entering the season with top 25 expectations following last season’s late surge, Tech instead began the year 2-3 with disappointing losses to both Vanderbilt and Rutgers. They played brilliantly in a last-second loss to Miami and seemed to be peaking just in time for injuries to wreck their offensive backfield. Still, a midseason three-game winning streak and a late-season pummeling of Virginia salvaged bowl eligibility.

    Player to watch: The quarterback, whoever it is. With so many senior stars — running back Bhayshul Tuten, edge rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland, nickel back Keonta Jenkins — who might choose to opt out in the coming weeks, it’s hard to figure out which Hokies will definitely see the field in Charlotte. But whether it’s Kyron Drones’ swan song after an injury-plagued season or it’s freshman William Watson III attempting to continue a pretty solid audition for the 2025 starting job, Tech will have someone pretty intriguing behind center. — Connelly

    ESPN BET early line: Minnesota -4.5


    Bahamas Bowl
    Nassau, Bahamas
    Jan. 4, 11 a.m. ET (ESPN2)

    Buffalo
    Season storyline: The Bulls rebounded nicely from a 3-9 season in 2023 under first-year coach Pete Lembo, who returned to the MAC and helped Buffalo to its highest wins total since 2019. Buffalo recorded notable MAC wins against Northern Illinois, triumphing in overtime on the road, a win against Toledo, and overcame several blowout defeats to win its final four regular-season contests. Lembo’s team has a balanced offense that limits turnovers and a defense with some star power but some inconsistent play. The Bulls boast one of the nation’s best and most prolific linebacker tandems in Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock, who have combined for 302 tackles to lead the MAC, including 30.5 for loss and eight quarterback hurries.

    Player to watch: Dolac. The senior linebacker won MAC Defensive Player of the Year honors after leading the FBS in total tackles with 159, while leading the conference in both tackles for loss (16.5) and interceptions (5). He also led the league in tackles last season with 147, which ranked second nationally. Dolac earned MAC defensive player of the week honors five times, a program record, and had a pick-six and two interceptions in a late-season win against Eastern Michigan. Liberty will need to craft its offensive game plan around identifying the 6-1, 225-pound Dolac, who is all over the field for coordinator Joe Bowen’s defense.

    Liberty
    Season storyline: The Flames won a team-record 13 games and reached the Fiesta Bowl in 2023, and returned star quarterback Kaidon Salter and other key pieces for coach Jamey Chadwell. But after a 5-0 start, Liberty saw its nation-long win streak end against winless Kennesaw State, marking the first time in 23 years – and just the sixth time in the AP Poll era, that a team 5-0 or better fell to an opponent 0-5 or worse. The Flames would drop two more games and failed to qualify for the Conference USA championship game. Led by Salter and Quinton Cooley, Chadwell’s offense remained solid but didn’t reach its standard productivity level.

    Player to watch: Running back Quinton Cooley. After a 1,400-yard season in 2023, Cooley continued to consistently pile up yards, even for a less-potent Liberty offense. He had eight 100-yard rushing performances and four multi-touchdown games, finishing the regular season with 1,254 yards and 13 touchdowns in 11 contests (Liberty’s game against Appalachian State was canceled). A bowling ball at 5-7 and 220 pounds, Cooley averaged at least 4.1 carries in every game and six yards per carry in six games. He will be a challenge for a Buffalo team that ranks 62nd nationally in defending the run. — Rittenberg

    ESPN BET early line: Liberty -2

  • Fantasy Football Storylines to Watch in Week 12: Nico Collins returns just in time

    I don’t know what I expected.

    Last Saturday, I sat at a good friend’s house to catch “The Boxing Match of the Century,” and the “Arrested Development” clip kept replaying in my head. I grew up watching Mike Tyson. I remember when I was watching the ’97 match against Holyfield that turned into a brawl. His speed and power were a marvel. But that was nearly 30 years ago. Conspiracy notions aside, the real clash over the weekend was preconceived notions battling with a heavy dose of reality. And we see which concept won.

    The 2024 fantasy football and NFL seasons have presented us with similar situations. Most recently, I hoped my Bengals could keep their season alive on the primetime stage. But we, and every offense they’ve faced, knew their defensive struggles were a problem. I had the same feeling after the final play. Regardless, setting expectations helps reconcile the eventual results. More importantly, we know how to navigate the takeaways.

    And as the fantasy playoffs creep up on us, leveraging those actionable nuggets can make or break your season.

    Admittedly, I didn’t watch the game in real time, but here are the storylines I gleamed from social media:

    • Jared Goff redeemed himself from his five-INT outing in Week 10.

    • David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are this year’s version of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.

    • Doug Pederson is about to have a lot of free time on his hands.

    Between Jameson Williams doing his best Marshawn Lynch impersonation and Gibbs flashing his speed, Jacksonville didn’t have a chance. In either case, the big plays made the headlines. Imagine my surprise when I checked the box score and saw how much Amon-Ra St. Brown got in on the fun.

    It’s a testament to the strength of the offense that a multi-touchdown game from its WR1 isn’t the leading topic afterward. Although, that’s a feature, not a bug in Detroit. The Lions have had bottom-12 early-down passing rates for three straight years. TE Sam LaPorta was their WR2 last year. But I’d be careful before labeling St. Brown anything other than one of the best at the position.

    • Contested Catch Rate: 70.0% (2nd out of 24 WRs — min. 20.0% target share)

    • Explosive Play Rate: 21.3% (8th)

    • Forced Missed Tackles: 8 (T-10th)

    Typically, I use the standard advanced metrics like yards per route run or air yards to contextualize a receiver. But most know ARSB primarily operates out of the slot. His receiving aDOT hasn’t been over nine yards at any point in his career. We’d expect him to be efficient. Honestly, I had to double-check the contested catch rate stat. St. Brown (17) has more explosive receptions than George Pickens (16), and this changed my perception of the fourth-year receiver even more. So, his WR1 status can’t be due to volume alone.

    Touchdown streak aside, the USC product finds himself at the intersection of talent and situation. He accounts for 28.2% of Goff’s passing yards. For reference, Tyreek Hill represents 26.5% of Miami’s aerial attack. Plus, St. Brown’s ability to move the chains is unmatched by his peers. At 44 receiving first downs, he has the most of any WR at this point in the season. Put another way, Goff has finished as a top-12 QB four times this season, and St. Brown has been the overall WR1 in half of those games. However, even in that stat, we can see the potential cap on his weekly ceiling.

    I mentioned the Lions’ gritty ground game earlier; they’re 28th in early-down passing rate and run at the fifth-highest rate in the green zone. Before Goff was throwing five picks, he had back-to-back weeks under 150 yards. A low-volume script isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Nevertheless, St. Brown’s role and impact on the offense remain unquestioned. And, with matchups against high-scoring offenses (Packers and Bills) during the fantasy playoffs, we should see more of the Sun God when we need him the most.

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    To be clear, I’m kidding. I do wonder how many 49ers fans would agree with the sentiment, though. And, not for nothing, Jauan Jennings gave a few reasons to question his place in the hierarchy earlier in the season.

    Through 11 weeks, Jennings’ 46.5-point PPR total in Week 3 is the second-highest of any WR this year. Still, that result should come with an asterisk (or three). Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both missed the game. It was Brandon Aiyuk’s third game back after his offseason hold-in. Christian McCaffrey was in Germany. But we’ve seen HC Kyle Shanahan make do with less. So, watching Jennings fade as the primary pieces of the offense returned made sense.

    • Week 3: 40.0% (Target Share), 47.0% (Air Yard Share), 46.5 (PPR Points)

    • Week 4: 23.0%, 24.0%, 11.8

    • Week 5: 13.0%, 16.0%, 2.3

    However, chalking up Jennings’s resurgence to Aiyuk’s injury alone would be reductive. Aiyuk saw more man coverage as he lined up as a perimeter receiver on 80.4% of his snaps. Meanwhile, Jennings manned the slot 48.9% of the time with the two on the field. Since he missed two games with a hip injury, we only have a two-game sample to determine his sustainability as a fantasy asset. But really, Week 10 should have been enough.

    Jauan Jennings route chartJauan Jennings route chart

    Jauan Jennings route chart. (Photo by Next Gen Stats)

    Two things stick out when looking at Jennings’ route charts provided by Next Gen Stats. First, he instantly returned to a double-digit workload. No asterisks are needed here. Yes, Aiyuk was out, but Christian McCaffrey was back for his first game. George Kittle was (relatively) healthy. Even rookie Ricky Pearsall had a 70.0% route rate. And yet, Jennings pulls up after a two-game absence with a gaudy 33.0% target share. The second part is his route depth.

    Schemed-up receivers turning short and intermediate catches into explosive plays had been a staple of the 49ers offense for years. It’s been part of why we, as a football community, have debated Brock Purdy’s contribution to the offense since he became the starter. However, only Anthony Richardson had a higher passing aDOT through the first month and a half of the season. CMC’s return not only added another option but enabled more concepts that took more off Purdy’s shoulders. Back in that Week 3 explosion for Jennings, he averaged 12.4 air yards per target. Fast forward to Week 10, it was down to 7.6. We’re not only getting the volume from Jennings, but also high-percentage looks boosting his weekly floor.

    Even with San Francisco’s slim hopes of a playoff spot, we have a sense of how the offense runs with everyone healthy. Jennings has led the team in targets in two consecutive games (11 and 10) with the highest slot target rate of the 49ers’ receivers. If pressured, Purdy has looked to Jennings (five targets) the same number of times he’s thrown to McCaffrey and Kittle.

    Jennings is the team’s WR1 and should have top-24 value for the rest of the fantasy season.

    If you passed on Brock Bowers during your draft, I get it. We only start one TE. Rookies are tough to project. Plus, for Bowers specifically, he had target earners around him. But history highlights why finding prospects like Bowers can change your season.

    On the one hand, saying targets and running a bunch of routes equals fantasy points sounds overly simplistic. But the receiving component of the TE position is what matters to us. I’ve yet to play in a points-per-block league. Using the ’23 season as a proxy, five of the top six TEs all had target shares of 20.0% or more. Nobody’s route participation rate was below 70.0%. So, on the other hand, prioritizing pass-catching talent can give you an edge. However, in the case of Bowers, the advantage is even greater.

    Brock Bowers route chartBrock Bowers route chart

    Brock Bowers route chart. (Photo by Next Gen Stats)

    Watching Bowers snap off routes and instantly create separation backs up what his route tree shows. He’s a receiver playing TE. His 16 targets on Sunday match the third-most of any TE over the last five years. Bowers has had more pass attempts thrown his way (89) than Justin Jefferson (86). At 16.0 PPR PPG, the Raiders’ TE1 would be the WR10 ahead of Garrett Wilson. But the workload superlatives only go so far for our purposes.

    Volume can’t be Bowers’ only path to production. He has Gardner Minshew throwing him the ball. Las Vegas has a bottom-five rank in yards per drive and an offensive line sitting at 23rd in pass-block win rate. I’d be more concerned, except check the route depths for Bowers against the Dolphins. For all their other issues on offense, the scheme has revolved around finding ways to get their rookie the ball.

    Bowers’ 5.4 air yards per target are ahead of only Cade Otton and Will Dissly. Even better, Bowers leads all TEs in looks with an average time to throw less than 2.5 seconds. In other words, the plan is to quickly get the ball out of Minshew’s hands and over to Bowers. Unsurprisingly, he’s one of the five players at his position with a YAC per reception over five yards. At worst, we’ve got a high-end WR2 we can play in our TE spot.

    For dynasty managers, don’t rejoice just yet. We’ve seen offenses shift when WRs develop. Just ask Sam LaPorta. But for the remainder of this season, there’s no more context needed. Bowers has the talent and scheme to overcome his poor situation. And with positive matchups throughout the fantasy playoffs (KC, TB, and JAX), Bowers will be one of the pieces you need to secure a championship.

    Kliff Kingsbury was the first person I thought about during the Commanders’ loss in TNF. Actually, I have Jayden Daniels on a couple of squads, so my mind was already there. Regardless, I figured our collective attention would turn to OC because, well, we’ve been here before.

    Arizona fans know the story currently unfolding in Washington well. Kingsbury will cook up a dynamic game plan that will have the offense humming early in the year. In 2021, you’d find the Cardinals in the top 10 for any efficiency metric in Weeks 1-8. But they slid to the middle of the pack to close out the season after Kyler Murray’s return in Week 13. And after a seven-game losing streak to end Kingsbury’s stint in Arizona, we all needed a trip to Thailand to recover. However, I’m not placing all of the blame on him just yet.

    Daniels missed the rest of the above Week 7 game after his 46-yard scamper. Fantasy managers breathed a sigh of relief when they got their QB1 back in Week 8, but the recent results have been underwhelming. He’s been outside the top 20 in consecutive weeks. And a quick check on his superpower points to a glaring problem.

    • Scramble Rate: 15.0% (Pre Rib Injury), 9.5% (Post Rib Injury)

    • Designed Rushing Rate: 12.7%, 7.5%

    • Rushing FPPG: 9.4, 2.8

    Daniels was averaging 53.7 yards per game as a runner before he got hurt. At the time, that was more than Breece Hall (51.8). But Daniels’ legs provided more than points to people who had him on their roster. They lifted the floor of the entire offense.

    Daniels’ ability to keep plays alive and draw defenders in only to uncork a ball downfield is something LSU fans routinely experienced. Now, the injury has forced him to be more of a dropback passer. And it’s not like he’s been able to turn to his non-McLaurin options during this time. Luke McCaffrey has 13 catches on the season. Zach Ertz, at 34 years old, is Washington’s second-best option. However, with a limited throwing ability, throws that looked routine earlier are stalling out drives lately.

    But like I said, I’m not giving up on the play-calling. Let’s remember who Daniels had to face with the rib injury. Pittsburgh came into the game with the same plan as the Giants: blitz him. Both defensive units sent five or more rushers on over 50.0% of his dropbacks. However, the Steelers knew how to account for Daniels on the ground when compressing the pocket. The Eagles had the secondary to put a cap on explosive plays. Last Thursday was his first game without a completed deep shot in five weeks.

    Luckily, the schedule opens up starting Sunday.

    Washington has Dallas, Tennessee, and the (heavily) injured Saints in the fantasy playoffs. All three have allowed at least one QB1 finish over the last three weeks. The mini-bye gives Daniels extra time to rest. His matchups will put him back in the top-12 conversation.

    I led off last week’s piece with expectations about the return of Nico Collins. Since Houston capped off Week 11 in primetime, let’s see if having their WR1 back had the desired effect.

    Now, in Collins’s defense (and the fantasy managers rostering him), he had a 77-yard TD catch off a screen pass called back on a holding penalty. Also, on that run after the catch, Collins pulls away from S Donovan Wilson. Even though it didn’t count, it was an encouraging sign about his health. If the Texans hadn’t been beating the brakes off the Cowboys, Collins might have run more routes. Regardless, even with the disappointment in the box score, Houston’s passing game improved like I had hoped.

    • EPA per DB: -0.15 (Weeks 7-10), 0.29 (Week 11)

    • Completion Percentage Over Expected: -8.0%, -5.3%

    • Explosive Pass Rate: 13.6%, 16.7%

    To be fair, C.J. Stroud didn’t produce perfect film. His interception highlighted some of the mechanical issues that have plagued him throughout the season. But his down-to-down efficiency hit its third-highest mark of the season (50.0% passing success rate). And part of the uptick was due to something I noted last week:

    “The Texans used quick-game concepts (passes with an average time to throw under 2.5 seconds) on 44.0% of Stroud’s dropbacks in Weeks 1-4. Unsurprisingly, Collins led the team in targets on these concepts (23) at a clip of 2.97 yards per route run. Put another way, he turned those 23 looks into 14 first downs.”

    Against the Cowboys’ pass rush, Stroud’s average time to throw was 2.48 seconds. That’s his fastest release in a single game all season. Accordingly, he faced pressure at the lowest rate since Week 7 (29.6%). As expected, Collins turned half of his receptions on quick-game concepts into first downs. Tank Dell generated an explosive on one of his. Collins’ return brought a missing piece back to the offense. And looking at Houston’s upcoming schedule (Titans, Jaguars), he came back at just the right time for fantasy managers.