Tag: returns

I don’t know what I expected.

Last Saturday, I sat at a good friend’s house to catch “The Boxing Match of the Century,” and the “Arrested Development” clip kept replaying in my head. I grew up watching Mike Tyson. I remember when I was watching the ’97 match against Holyfield that turned into a brawl. His speed and power were a marvel. But that was nearly 30 years ago. Conspiracy notions aside, the real clash over the weekend was preconceived notions battling with a heavy dose of reality. And we see which concept won.

The 2024 fantasy football and NFL seasons have presented us with similar situations. Most recently, I hoped my Bengals could keep their season alive on the primetime stage. But we, and every offense they’ve faced, knew their defensive struggles were a problem. I had the same feeling after the final play. Regardless, setting expectations helps reconcile the eventual results. More importantly, we know how to navigate the takeaways.

And as the fantasy playoffs creep up on us, leveraging those actionable nuggets can make or break your season.

The Sun God continues to shine

Admittedly, I didn’t watch the game in real time, but here are the storylines I gleamed from social media:

• Jared Goff redeemed himself from his five-INT outing in Week 10.

• David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are this year’s version of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.

• Doug Pederson is about to have a lot of free time on his hands.

Between Jameson Williams doing his best Marshawn Lynch impersonation and Gibbs flashing his speed, Jacksonville didn’t have a chance. In either case, the big plays made the headlines. Imagine my surprise when I checked the box score and saw how much Amon-Ra St. Brown got in on the fun.

It’s a testament to the strength of the offense that a multi-touchdown game from its WR1 isn’t the leading topic afterward. Although, that’s a feature, not a bug in Detroit. The Lions have had bottom-12 early-down passing rates for three straight years. TE Sam LaPorta was their WR2 last year. But I’d be careful before labeling St. Brown anything other than one of the best at the position.

• Contested Catch Rate: 70.0% (2nd out of 24 WRs — min. 20.0% target share)

• Explosive Play Rate: 21.3% (8th)

• Forced Missed Tackles: 8 (T-10th)

Typically, I use the standard advanced metrics like yards per route run or air yards to contextualize a receiver. But most know ARSB primarily operates out of the slot. His receiving aDOT hasn’t been over nine yards at any point in his career. We’d expect him to be efficient. Honestly, I had to double-check the contested catch rate stat. St. Brown (17) has more explosive receptions than George Pickens (16), and this changed my perception of the fourth-year receiver even more. So, his WR1 status can’t be due to volume alone.

Touchdown streak aside, the USC product finds himself at the intersection of talent and situation. He accounts for 28.2% of Goff’s passing yards. For reference, Tyreek Hill represents 26.5% of Miami’s aerial attack. Plus, St. Brown’s ability to move the chains is unmatched by his peers. At 44 receiving first downs, he has the most of any WR at this point in the season. Put another way, Goff has finished as a top-12 QB four times this season, and St. Brown has been the overall WR1 in half of those games. However, even in that stat, we can see the potential cap on his weekly ceiling.

I mentioned the Lions’ gritty ground game earlier; they’re 28th in early-down passing rate and run at the fifth-highest rate in the green zone. Before Goff was throwing five picks, he had back-to-back weeks under 150 yards. A low-volume script isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Nevertheless, St. Brown’s role and impact on the offense remain unquestioned. And, with matchups against high-scoring offenses (Packers and Bills) during the fantasy playoffs, we should see more of the Sun God when we need him the most.

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Jauan Jennings should’ve gotten the Brandon Aiyuk contract

To be clear, I’m kidding. I do wonder how many 49ers fans would agree with the sentiment, though. And, not for nothing, Jauan Jennings gave a few reasons to question his place in the hierarchy earlier in the season.

Through 11 weeks, Jennings’ 46.5-point PPR total in Week 3 is the second-highest of any WR this year. Still, that result should come with an asterisk (or three). Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both missed the game. It was Brandon Aiyuk’s third game back after his offseason hold-in. Christian McCaffrey was in Germany. But we’ve seen HC Kyle Shanahan make do with less. So, watching Jennings fade as the primary pieces of the offense returned made sense.

• Week 3: 40.0% (Target Share), 47.0% (Air Yard Share), 46.5 (PPR Points)

• Week 4: 23.0%, 24.0%, 11.8

• Week 5: 13.0%, 16.0%, 2.3

However, chalking up Jennings’s resurgence to Aiyuk’s injury alone would be reductive. Aiyuk saw more man coverage as he lined up as a perimeter receiver on 80.4% of his snaps. Meanwhile, Jennings manned the slot 48.9% of the time with the two on the field. Since he missed two games with a hip injury, we only have a two-game sample to determine his sustainability as a fantasy asset. But really, Week 10 should have been enough.

Two things stick out when looking at Jennings’ route charts provided by Next Gen Stats. First, he instantly returned to a double-digit workload. No asterisks are needed here. Yes, Aiyuk was out, but Christian McCaffrey was back for his first game. George Kittle was (relatively) healthy. Even rookie Ricky Pearsall had a 70.0% route rate. And yet, Jennings pulls up after a two-game absence with a gaudy 33.0% target share. The second part is his route depth.

Schemed-up receivers turning short and intermediate catches into explosive plays had been a staple of the 49ers offense for years. It’s been part of why we, as a football community, have debated Brock Purdy’s contribution to the offense since he became the starter. However, only Anthony Richardson had a higher passing aDOT through the first month and a half of the season. CMC’s return not only added another option but enabled more concepts that took more off Purdy’s shoulders. Back in that Week 3 explosion for Jennings, he averaged 12.4 air yards per target. Fast forward to Week 10, it was down to 7.6. We’re not only getting the volume from Jennings, but also high-percentage looks boosting his weekly floor.

Even with San Francisco’s slim hopes of a playoff spot, we have a sense of how the offense runs with everyone healthy. Jennings has led the team in targets in two consecutive games (11 and 10) with the highest slot target rate of the 49ers’ receivers. If pressured, Purdy has looked to Jennings (five targets) the same number of times he’s thrown to McCaffrey and Kittle.

Jennings is the team’s WR1 and should have top-24 value for the rest of the fantasy season.

Brock Bowers? More like Brock Towers (over the competition)

If you passed on Brock Bowers during your draft, I get it. We only start one TE. Rookies are tough to project. Plus, for Bowers specifically, he had target earners around him. But history highlights why finding prospects like Bowers can change your season.

On the one hand, saying targets and running a bunch of routes equals fantasy points sounds overly simplistic. But the receiving component of the TE position is what matters to us. I’ve yet to play in a points-per-block league. Using the ’23 season as a proxy, five of the top six TEs all had target shares of 20.0% or more. Nobody’s route participation rate was below 70.0%. So, on the other hand, prioritizing pass-catching talent can give you an edge. However, in the case of Bowers, the advantage is even greater.

Watching Bowers snap off routes and instantly create separation backs up what his route tree shows. He’s a receiver playing TE. His 16 targets on Sunday match the third-most of any TE over the last five years. Bowers has had more pass attempts thrown his way (89) than Justin Jefferson (86). At 16.0 PPR PPG, the Raiders’ TE1 would be the WR10 ahead of Garrett Wilson. But the workload superlatives only go so far for our purposes.

Volume can’t be Bowers’ only path to production. He has Gardner Minshew throwing him the ball. Las Vegas has a bottom-five rank in yards per drive and an offensive line sitting at 23rd in pass-block win rate. I’d be more concerned, except check the route depths for Bowers against the Dolphins. For all their other issues on offense, the scheme has revolved around finding ways to get their rookie the ball.

Bowers’ 5.4 air yards per target are ahead of only Cade Otton and Will Dissly. Even better, Bowers leads all TEs in looks with an average time to throw less than 2.5 seconds. In other words, the plan is to quickly get the ball out of Minshew’s hands and over to Bowers. Unsurprisingly, he’s one of the five players at his position with a YAC per reception over five yards. At worst, we’ve got a high-end WR2 we can play in our TE spot.

For dynasty managers, don’t rejoice just yet. We’ve seen offenses shift when WRs develop. Just ask Sam LaPorta. But for the remainder of this season, there’s no more context needed. Bowers has the talent and scheme to overcome his poor situation. And with positive matchups throughout the fantasy playoffs (KC, TB, and JAX), Bowers will be one of the pieces you need to secure a championship.

No QB1 performances for Jayden Daniels in a while — what gives?

Kliff Kingsbury was the first person I thought about during the Commanders’ loss in TNF. Actually, I have Jayden Daniels on a couple of squads, so my mind was already there. Regardless, I figured our collective attention would turn to OC because, well, we’ve been here before.

Arizona fans know the story currently unfolding in Washington well. Kingsbury will cook up a dynamic game plan that will have the offense humming early in the year. In 2021, you’d find the Cardinals in the top 10 for any efficiency metric in Weeks 1-8. But they slid to the middle of the pack to close out the season after Kyler Murray’s return in Week 13. And after a seven-game losing streak to end Kingsbury’s stint in Arizona, we all needed a trip to Thailand to recover. However, I’m not placing all of the blame on him just yet.

Daniels missed the rest of the above Week 7 game after his 46-yard scamper. Fantasy managers breathed a sigh of relief when they got their QB1 back in Week 8, but the recent results have been underwhelming. He’s been outside the top 20 in consecutive weeks. And a quick check on his superpower points to a glaring problem.

• Scramble Rate: 15.0% (Pre Rib Injury), 9.5% (Post Rib Injury)

• Designed Rushing Rate: 12.7%, 7.5%

• Rushing FPPG: 9.4, 2.8

Daniels was averaging 53.7 yards per game as a runner before he got hurt. At the time, that was more than Breece Hall (51.8). But Daniels’ legs provided more than points to people who had him on their roster. They lifted the floor of the entire offense.

Daniels’ ability to keep plays alive and draw defenders in only to uncork a ball downfield is something LSU fans routinely experienced. Now, the injury has forced him to be more of a dropback passer. And it’s not like he’s been able to turn to his non-McLaurin options during this time. Luke McCaffrey has 13 catches on the season. Zach Ertz, at 34 years old, is Washington’s second-best option. However, with a limited throwing ability, throws that looked routine earlier are stalling out drives lately.

But like I said, I’m not giving up on the play-calling. Let’s remember who Daniels had to face with the rib injury. Pittsburgh came into the game with the same plan as the Giants: blitz him. Both defensive units sent five or more rushers on over 50.0% of his dropbacks. However, the Steelers knew how to account for Daniels on the ground when compressing the pocket. The Eagles had the secondary to put a cap on explosive plays. Last Thursday was his first game without a completed deep shot in five weeks.

Luckily, the schedule opens up starting Sunday.

Washington has Dallas, Tennessee, and the (heavily) injured Saints in the fantasy playoffs. All three have allowed at least one QB1 finish over the last three weeks. The mini-bye gives Daniels extra time to rest. His matchups will put him back in the top-12 conversation.

Houston’s passing game takes a Collins-sized step forward

I led off last week’s piece with expectations about the return of Nico Collins. Since Houston capped off Week 11 in primetime, let’s see if having their WR1 back had the desired effect.

Now, in Collins’s defense (and the fantasy managers rostering him), he had a 77-yard TD catch off a screen pass called back on a holding penalty. Also, on that run after the catch, Collins pulls away from S Donovan Wilson. Even though it didn’t count, it was an encouraging sign about his health. If the Texans hadn’t been beating the brakes off the Cowboys, Collins might have run more routes. Regardless, even with the disappointment in the box score, Houston’s passing game improved like I had hoped.

• EPA per DB: -0.15 (Weeks 7-10), 0.29 (Week 11)

• Completion Percentage Over Expected: -8.0%, -5.3%

• Explosive Pass Rate: 13.6%, 16.7%

To be fair, C.J. Stroud didn’t produce perfect film. His interception highlighted some of the mechanical issues that have plagued him throughout the season. But his down-to-down efficiency hit its third-highest mark of the season (50.0% passing success rate). And part of the uptick was due to something I noted last week:

Against the Cowboys’ pass rush, Stroud’s average time to throw was 2.48 seconds. That’s his fastest release in a single game all season. Accordingly, he faced pressure at the lowest rate since Week 7 (29.6%). As expected, Collins turned half of his receptions on quick-game concepts into first downs. Tank Dell generated an explosive on one of his. Collins’ return brought a missing piece back to the offense. And looking at Houston’s upcoming schedule (Titans, Jaguars), he came back at just the right time for fantasy managers.