Sorin Drache

Tag: Offseason

  • Fantasy Baseball Offseason Tracker: Andres Gimenez dealt to Blue Jays while Jake Burger goes to the Rangers

    The biggest free agent domino has fallen. Juan Soto is off the market with a record-setting 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets. Not to be deterred, the Yankees then awarded an eight-year $218 million contract to Max Fried, the biggest ever guaranteed deal for a left-handed pitcher. Both moves came on the heels of the Giants’ seven-year, $182 million deal with shortstop Willy Adames.

    That’s right, the Hot Stove is in full swing, and Chris Towers and I are here to guide you through the transactions of actual consequence for Fantasy Baseball. This is the place where we’ll react to them as they happen, breaking down what they mean for 2025 drafts.

    So bookmark this page and keep checking back. As the news comes in, you’ll be glad you have one stop for keeping track of it all

    Jake Burger traded to Rangers

    Burger brings plenty of power, but that’s about it. It wasn’t a problem when he played for the White Sox and Marlins, who were desperate to fill out their lineup with anything worthwhile, but the threshold for playing time is much higher with the Rangers. Perhaps he’s insurance for another Josh Jung injury at third base. Perhaps he’s a platoon partner for Nathaniel Lowe at first. Perhaps he’s a part-time DH for those days when Leody Taveras’ bat just isn’t cutting it in center field. More likely, Burger is all of the above, but whether that’ll amount to full-time at-bats is hard to say as of now. So while the lineup and venue improve for Burger, I’m inclined to downgrade him somewhat due to the uncertainty of the role, dropping him behind names like Paul Goldschmidt and Ryan Mountcastle at first base and Nolan Arenado and Josh Jung at third. –Scott White

    Andres Gimenez to Blue Jays, Spencer Horwitz to Pirates in three-team deal

    This one is technically more of a flip since all three of the Pirates’ contributions to the deal (Luis Ortiz, Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy) are going to the Guardians, but since Horwitz didn’t even have time to pack his bags, I’ll call it a three-team deal. The most Fantasy-relevant player on the move is Gimenez. His arrival in Toronto is a little disappointing for Will Wagner, Davis Schneider and Orelvis Martinez, all interesting players who might have pushed Horwitz for playing time but won’t overtake Gimenez. Horwitz himself would seem to be the big winner, presuming the Pirates give him full run at first base (he was stretched at second, and the Pirates have ample alternatives there). The 27-year-old is a bat-control specialist who showed surprising power as a rookie and could approach 20 homers with a .280 or so batting average if given ample runway.

    As for Gimenez, his value doesn’t change much. There may be a slight park downgrade, though not enough to change his power output meaningfully. He’s my No. 14 second baseman in 5×5 scoring and No. 15 in points. One sneaky aspect of this deal is that the Guardians seem to think Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 overall pick in this past year’s draft, is close to major league-ready. By flipping Horwitz, they’ve left themselves without an obvious starter at second base, and while it probably won’t be Bazzana to start out, there’s a good chance it will be by season’s end. –Scott White

    Nathan Eovaldi signs with Rangers

    We already have a pretty good idea how things will play out for Eovaldi in Texas seeing as he spent the past two years there. It was, in fact, the best two-year stretch of his career, which is why he was rewarded with a three-year, $75 million deal. He remains a hard-thrower at age 34, and that ample velocity, while driving his success, can be difficult to sustain over the full major-league calendar, which makes for a bumpy ride at times. So there will be stretches when Eovaldi looks better than his mid-to-high-threes ERA and stretches when he looks worse, but the end result will be respectable ratios with a quality win total because of how deep he works into games when healthy. I rank Eovaldi just inside my top 60 pitchers for 2025. –Scott White

    Max Fried signs with Yankees

    Having just lost Juan Soto to the crosstown rival Mets, the Yankees pivoted in a big way Tuesday, agreeing to an eight-year, $218 million contract with former Braves ace Max Fried. It’s the largest ever guaranteed contract for a left-handed pitcher, and on the surface anyway, it’s a nice fit. But here’s where I point out that this free agent deal, like every other free agent deal, is pending a physical, and while normally that’s a matter of crossing t’s and dotting i’s, I can’t shake the feeling that there might be a hiccup in Fried’s case. For the complete lowdown, check out my full-length article. –Scott White

    Yimi Garcia signs with Blue Jays

    This signing matters for Fantasy only because the Blue Jays are lacking a tried-and-true closer after non-tendering Jordan Romano (who has since signed with the Phillies). You may remember Garcia got the first chance to fill-in as closer when Romano was sidelined by injury last season and fared well enough in the role, but then the Blue Jays dealt him to Seattle, where he developed his own elbow troubles. Healthy now, Garcia could claim the closer role from Chad Green, who spent longer in it last season but also had a curiously low strikeout rate, or the Blue Jays could opt to bring in someone more established still. It’s an evolving situation, but if nothing else, we can say Garcia has landed in a spot where he has a chance for saves. –Scott White

    Thairo Estrada signs with Rockies

    The Rockies had an opening at second base after non-tendering Brendan Rodgers and will fill it with Estrada on a one-year, $3.25 million deal. The modest terms would suggest he’s merely a bridge to prospect Adael Amador eventually claiming the role. Amador was rushed to the majors as a 21-year-old and showed he wasn’t ready, but if he were to make big strides this year, Estrada doesn’t represent much of a roadblock.

    The 28-year-old was a useful Fantasy option in 2022 and 2023, contributing a little bit of pop with some speed — a poor man’s Tommy Edman, you might say — but he fell off hard last season while contending with a bum wrist. Coors Field makes for a cushy environment to rebuild his value, and fittingly, he’s hit .348 (32 for 92) with four home runs in 24 career games there. He’ll still likely be drafted outside the top 20 second baseman but has sleeper appeal in Rotisserie league especially. –Scott White

    The battle for the ninth inning in Philadelphia feels a bit less wide open after this signing, but Romano is obviously no sure bet coming off a season ruined by elbow injuries. There’s a reason the Blue Jays, who intend to compete in 2025, non-tendered him with club control left. When Romano is right, he’s a fringe-elite closer, with a three-year stretch from 2021 through 2023 where he posted a 2.37 ERA and 30.3% strikeout rate – a stretch that included consecutive 36-save seasons. The big question here is whether Romano can truly be “right” coming off a season where he dealt with elbow pain from Spring Training right up until he had surgery on the elbow in August. 

    He should open spring as the favorite for saves in Philadelphia, and that can be a very good spot to be in if you are looking to rack up saves. But if Romano isn’t himself, Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, and possibly Matt Strahm are there to step up as possible alternatives. I think the likeliest outcomes are, either Romano is healthy and is the closer for as long as he is right, or he struggles pretty early and this whole bullpen is the same kind of muddled mess it was for much of last season. That makes Romano a viable option for saves in the middle rounds of drafts, but I’d be wary of investing much more than that into him given how poorly 2024 went for the soon-to-be 32-year-old. –Chris Towers

    The comp doesn’t work perfectly. Cobb was never as good as Jack Flaherty at their respective peaks, and he is nearly a decade older than Flaherty was when he signed with the Tigers last offseason. But you can see the appeal for a veteran like Cobb, who is trying to rebuild his value after a mostly lost 2024 season that saw him deal with hip, shoulder, and finger injuries. Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter has received a lot of praise in recent seasons for the work he has done with the likes of Flaherty and, obviously, Tarik Skubal, and they’ll hope to help Cobb find success on a one-year deal.

    Now, the thing here is, Cobb has actually been quite good when he’s been able to stay on the mound in recent years, posting a 3.75 ERA over his past four seasons. The Tigers have been very good at coaxing more velocity out of their arms in recent years, and that wouldn’t be a bad thing for Cobb, whose velocity was down a tick when he was able to get on the mound in 2024. It’s also a great ballpark for any pitcher to call home, which should help Cobb continue to limit damage on balls in play. He isn’t a star, or anything, but if the early-season schedule looks favorable, Cobb could be an interesting late-round flier for 2025. –Chris Towers

    Treinen had just one save for the Dodgers during the regular season, but he was their most trusted reliever during the postseason, taking on a high-leverage role that netted him three saves. Presumably, they’re bringing him back to fill that role, which would make him the early favorite for saves in Los Angeles. We should know by now, though, that manager Dave Roberts doesn’t adhere to bullpen conventions and will mix in a fair amount of Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips as well, but notably, Treinen has the most closing experience of the three. He had 38 saves to go along with a 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 for the Athletics in 2018, and over his final 30 appearances this past season, he had 1.24 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. I’ll be ranking him just outside of my top 15 relievers for 2025 since there’s some uncertainty surrounding his role, but clearly, he has the upside for more. –Scott White

    Juan Soto signs with Mets

    The Mets finally landed the big fish they’ve been angling for in free agency, as Juan Soto has agreed to sign a record-breaking contract that will keep him in Queens until 2039. Soto’s deal will pay him $765 million over the next 15 seasons, besting the total value of Shohei Ohtani’s contract from a year ago by $65 million. But does it really matter where Soto is playing when considering his Fantasy value? To find out, check out my full-length article on the signing, which also addresses the impact on the rest of the Mets lineup and the free agent market as a whole. –Chris Towers

    Conforto’s 2024 stat line may not look particularly impressive, but it was his best since the 2019-20 stretch that made him one of the most highly regarded outfielders in Fantasy. Even more notable is what happened under the hood. His .479 xSLG was just as good as those peak seasons as his average (90.2 mph) and max (113.6 mph) exit velocities jumped to 68th and 90th percentile, respectively. A quick look at the splits will tell you Oracle Park wasn’t doing him any favors. Away from there, he hit .253 with and .852 OPS and 17 of his 20 home runs overall. The Dodgers certainly took notice, and judging by the data, there’s a chance he goes the Teoscar Hernandez and J.D. Martinez route of blowing away expectations on a one-year deal. The Dodgers’ recent with such signings is all the more incentive for me to mark Conforto as a sleeper, ranking him just outside of my top 50 outfielders. –Scott White

    Willy Adames signs with Giants

    I had already positioned myself as an Adames skeptic for next year, ranking him 10th at shortstop after he just placed fifth there, and this signing only fortifies my position. Oracle Park isn’t quite the neutralizer it once was, but it still rates as the third-worst home run venue for right-handed hitters over the past three years while American Family Field rates as the sixth-best. On the other hand, Adames has batted .321 (18 for 56) with an .827 OPS in 16 career games in San Francisco, and Statcast estimates that he would have hit 31 home runs playing every game there last year vs. the 32 he actually hit. So maybe it won’t be so bad?

    The issue is in using Adames’ 2024 as a basis for comparison when it was almost certainly his best-case outcome. His exit velocities, strikeout rate and batted-ball angles were all in line with career norms, and yet his batting average (.251) was his highest in three years, his home runs (32) were his most ever, and he also stole 21 bases when he had never reached even double digits before. It also probably goes without saying that he won’t have a combined 205 runs and RBI as the most feared hitter in a mediocre Giants lineup. So if this signing makes you skeptical of a repeat performance, that’s probably for the best. You already should have been. –Scott White

    Seems like the Orioles are moving in their left field fence just in time. O’Neill just had a resurgent season with the Red Sox in part because he made a concerted effort to pull the ball in the air more — a fine strategy for a right-handed hitter at Fenway Park but one that would have brought such a player to ruin at Camden Yards the past couple years. Fortunately, the reported changes to the left field fence there should make it a more neutral environment for right-handed hitters, and notably, O’Neill’s career season (2021) came in St. Louis, which is also a challenging place for right-handers to hit it out.

    Perhaps, then, the more significant variable for O’Neill than venue is his own health. Cutting a muscular figure, the 29-year-old has been particularly susceptible to strains, playing just 65 percent of his team’s games the past four years, and even when healthy, his limited bat control (he struck out a career worst 33.6 percent last year) has made for unpredictable outcomes. He has the upside of top-20 outfielder, but the concerns piled on top of concerns drop him to 36th in my outfield rankings. –Scott White

    After three years as the Yankees on-again, off-again closer, Holmes is switching not just leagues but also roles, getting a shot as a starter on a three-year, $38 million deal. The role isn’t totally foreign to him, seeing as he spent much of his minor-league career as a starter, and in the years since, he’s developed a more trustworthy arsenal and stable enough command to attempt this move back. While his sinkerball approach may have been ill-suited for closing, leaving him too vulnerable to hits in high-leverage moments, it’s likely to minimize damage over extended stretches. For all the tense moments as a closer, the ERA was always good, after all. This signing raises Holmes’ Fantasy appeal in the hopes he can follow in the footsteps of successful relievers-turned-starters like Michael King, Reynaldo Lopez and Bowden Francis, and interest should be especially high in Head-to-Head points leagues, where he figures to be one of the top 15 relievers drafted. –Scott White 

    It’s a one-year pact with a player option for a second just in base Bieber’s recovery from Tommy John surgery goes poorly. His entire future in Fantasy of course hinges on that recovery. You’ll remember the former Cy Young winner seemed to be on the verge of regaining ace standing after an offseason spent working with Driveline Baseball, regaining the bite on his slider and dominating through two starts. But then his elbow began barking, and well, you know the rest. The earliest we can hope to see Bieber is June 2025, which means he’ll only be worth stashing in leagues with ample IL stash. Which version of Bieber shows up then is anybody’s guess, but it’s encouraging that the organization that knows him best opted to re-up with him. –Scott White 

    After playing with two AL East teams in the same game last season, Jansen continues his tour around the division by joining the Rays, where he will likely be the starting catcher. That didn’t go quite so well for either Toronto or Boston in 2024, as Jansen struggled through one of his worst seasons ever, hitting just .205/.309/.349, so the Rays are surely hoping for a bounce-back on this one-year deal. Jansen makes a lot of contact and has a decent eye at the plate, but his quality of contact has been in a freefall in his late 20s, with his expected wOBA on contact dropping from .408 in 2022 to .291 last season. If he can rediscover some of the pop he has last in recent years, he could be a decent No. 2 catcher, especially with the Rays making a move to what we think will be a hitter-friendly home at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa this season. Jansen is a viable, low-end No. 2 catcher for deeper formats, but shouldn’t be viewed as a priority, even in 15-team leagues. –Chris Towers

    Luis Severino signs with the Athletics

    The A’s made a surprising splash in free agency with their three-year contract with Severino for $67 million, the largest guaranteed contract in franchise history. It’s a less-than-ideal landing spot for Severino’s Fantasy value in 2025, unfortunately, as the A’s still figure to be a pretty middling team (at best) in 2025 and are moving from a pitcher friendly park to one that may play at least a bit closer to average. That would be a downgrade for Severino, after he spent a year rebuilding his value in a very pitcher-friendly park with the Mets. 

    To his credit, Severino did a great job rebuilding that value with the Mets, and he did so by showing a lot more flexibility as a pitcher than ever before. At his best, Severino didn’t really need much of a gameplan, as he just pumped four-seamers and sliders past hitters, throwing those two pitches 85-90% of the time. In 2024, he introduced a sweeper and greatly increased his sinker usage, giving him six pitches he threw at least 7% of the time. The Mets have become a very good pitching development organization, and Severino benefited from his time with them. The likeliest outcome here is that Severino isn’t much more than a rotation filler for Fantasy, but if he can stay healthy, he’ll have moments of usefulness. And, if the strikeout rate jump he tapped into in the second half of the season (26.2%) sticks, maybe he can even be a bit more than that. But he probably doesn’t need to be much more than a late-rounder in drafts, and even that might be overstating it if he has a poor early schedule. –Chris Towers

    About four months away from the start of the season, it’s nearly impossible to say what the Red Sox plans for the back end of the bullpen are, but Chapman surely figures to be part of them now. Their returning saves leader is a tie between Justin Slaten and Josh Winckowski, who all had two each last season, while their most experienced in-house closer option is Liam Hendriks, who has pitched just five innings since 2022 after recovering from leukemia and then Tommy John surgery. Chapman is no longer the lights-out closer he was at his best, but the soon-to-be 37-year-old still strikes out nearly 40% of opposing batters (despite losing a tick or two off fastball last season) and can get the job done on a one-year deal. At this point, it makes sense to treat him like the favorite for the ninth inning in Boston in 2025, at least until we see what Hendriks looks like in the spring – for what it’s worth, Hendricks’ fastball velocity was down 2-3 mph in his brief minor-league rehab assignment toward the end of last season, which doesn’t bode well. –Chris Towers

    Another retread-gone-right, Boyd is earned a two-year deal with the Cubs after a successful eight-start run with the Guardians in 2024. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery last season, with underlying peripherals that mostly backed it up – thanks, in large part, to a strong 27.7% strikeout rate. Boyd’s velocity was mostly back up to pre-injury levels, though that still makes him a soft-tosser at this point, so his success will be based on his effective his slider/changeup combo can be. Both pitches were excellent in 2024, but the underlying pitch characteristics don’t necessarily back up what he accomplished, with most pitch modeling metrics suggesting Boyd was a below-average pitcher in 2024. A year further removed from surgery, maybe Boyd can take another step forward and find success with a pretty clear path to a rotation spot for the Cubs, but he doesn’t have to be much more than a late-round, bench-spot flier even in deeper leagues. –Chris Towers

    The Mets have a rotation to rebuild, and the first step was adding a pitcher coming off a down year split between the Reds and Brewers. Or maybe calling it a “down year” is soft-pedaling given that it was Montas’ first back from surgery to the labrum in his right shoulder. His velocity was basically up to snuff, though, and he did see his K/9 rate jump from 7.5 in his 19 starts with the Reds to 11.0 in his 11 starts with the Brewers. Even prior to the 2023 shoulder surgery, his career was defined by inconsistency due to the on-again, off-again nature of his splitter. The Mets fared well with reclamation projects like Sean Manaea and Luis Severino last season and have agreed to pay Montas $34 million over the next two, so they clearly see something they like. We shouldn’t rule out a bounce-back season, particularly since the cost in Fantasy will be so low. –Scott White 

    To the surprise of no one, the Dodgers have landed the first marquee free agent of the offseason, agreeing to a five-year $182 million deal with Blake Snell Tuesday. It’s a big commitment for what’s been the model organization the past few years and may go a long way toward allaying fears about Snell’s irregularities. While he’s put together a  2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 over the past three seasons, much has been made about the way he came about those numbers. For more, check out my full-length article breaking down the signing. –Scott White 

    The three-year, $63 million deal is a modest one for a pitcher who seemed to have real momentum heading into the offseason, having just put together a 2.70 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 in his 10 starts for the Astros. The improved performance coincided with Kikuchi roughly doubling his slider usage, and his 2025 destination matters less for his Fantasy value than whether or not he sticks to that approach.

    He has always missed bats at a good rate but has gotten inconsistent results due to questionable pitch selection and a penchant for hard contact. Going to the Angels gives him a lower margin for error than if he had gone to a true contender and also does nothing to soften his vulnerability to the long ball, but again, his success is tied more to continuing his slider-heavy approach. And for that, we’ll just have to wait and see. I cautiously rank him just inside my top 50 starting pitchers for 2025, but he has the upside for more. –Scott White

    Unfortunately, this trade is close to a worse-case scenario for the two major players involved. India goes from the most favorable park for home runs — i.e., one of the few where his fringy power plays — to one of the least favorable. According to Statcast, his 63 career home runs would be 42 if he played every game  at Kauffman Stadium. Obviously, the reverse move is bad for Singer, a pitcher who’s on the more pitch-to-contact side of the ledger, but since he generally puts the ball on the ground, maybe it’s not as bad. Then again, he has a career 3.92 ERA at home in Kauffman Stadium compared to a 4.74 ERA everywhere else.

    Neither India nor Singer figured to be a hot commodity prior to this trade, and both might go undrafted now in shallower leagues. India is a little more useful in points leagues because of his on-base skills, and both he and Singer at least stand to be high-volume plays. India’s removal does free up some of the Reds’ infield logjam with Matt McLain expected back, penciling in Noelvi Marte at third base again. –Scott White

    Rather than test the free agent market, Martinez accepted the Reds’ qualifying offer of $21.05 million, which isn’t altogether surprising given that it now represents roughly 40 percent of his career MLB earnings. That the Reds extended the offer is telling. They had a front-row seat to the 34-year-old’s career season and bought in hard at an amount that virtually guarantees he’ll be a full-time starter rather than reverting to a swingman role.

    Perhaps, then, we should take Martinez just as seriously. He’s always had a killer changeup, and he became a strike-thrower of the highest order in 2024, boasting the third-best walk rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. His home run prevention was probably too good to be true, particularly for pitching half his games in Cincinnati, but he won’t be priced for another 3.10 ERA. More likely, he’ll be sort of a poor man’s Jose Berrios or Zach Eflin, good for piling up innings with a low WHIP, and he takes on added value in Head-to-Head points leagues due to his relief pitcher eligibility.  –Scott White

    Finally freed of his catching tandem with Sean Murphy, d’Arnaud was quick to put himself in another one, this time with up-and-comer Logan O’Hoppe. It’s frustrating for a couple reasons, one being that O’Hoppe loses some of the volume that made him so attractive for Fantasy, likely going from a 75 percent workload share to 60 percent or less, and the other being that d’Arnaud himself could have pursued a full-time role. Instead, d’Arnaud figures to remain a fringe second catcher for two-catcher leagues, and while O’Hoppe doesn’t necessarily slide down the rankings — he was already regarded as a low-end No. 1 — his upside takes a hit. Maybe his .196 batting average in the second half is evidence he was overworked, but even if it improves, his counting stats will be capped.

    Meanwhile, Murphy has a golden opportunity to reestablish himself in Atlanta after bombing for the past season-and-a-half there. Injuries have likely contributed to his struggles, as has irregular playing time due to the presence of d’Arnaud, but he’ll need to prove himself quickly to hold off prospect Drake Baldwin. –Scott White

    Only three months after acquiring him from the Giants, the Braves flipped Soler to the Angels in what was essentially a salary dump. They ended up non-tendering the player they got back in the deal, Griffin Canning. You might think Soler’s departure reflects well on Ronald Acuna’s recovery from a torn ACL, but GM Alex Anthopoulos later confessed that the star outfielder likely won’t be ready for the start of 2025. As for Soler, he has an easy claim to the Angels’ DH spot and will play in a pretty nice venue, particularly for home runs, but his success has never depended on such factors. He’s a mercurial performer coming off a down season but still has the 35-homer upside to pay off handsomely as a fourth or fifth outfielder. –Scott White

  • Fantasy Baseball Offseason Tracker: Willy Adames worse off with Giants; Mets will try Clay Holmes as starter

    The biggest free agent domino has fallen. Juan Soto is of the market with a record-setting 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets. This comes on the heels of the Giants’ seven-year, $182 million deal with shortstop Willy Adames during what was an eventful weekend heading into the Winter Meetings.

    That’s right, the Hot Stove is heating up, and Chris Towers and I are here to guide you through the transactions of actual consequence for Fantasy Baseball. This is the place where we’ll react to them as they happen, breaking down what they mean for 2025 drafts.

    So bookmark this page and keep checking back. As the news comes in, you’ll be glad you have one stop for keeping track of it all.

    Treinen had just one save for the Dodgers during the regular season, but he was their most trusted reliever during the postseason, taking on a high-leverage role that netted him three saves. Presumably, they’re bringing him back to fill that role, which would make him the early favorite for saves in Los Angeles. We should know by now, though, that manager Dave Roberts doesn’t adhere to bullpen conventions and will mix in a fair amount of Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips as well, but notably, Treinen has the most closing experience of the three. He had 38 saves to go along with a 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 for the Athletics in 2018, and over his final 30 appearances this past season, he had 1.24 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. I’ll be ranking him just outside of my top 15 relievers for 2025 since there’s some uncertainty surrounding his role, but clearly, he has the upside for more. –Scott White

    Juan Soto signs with Mets

    The Mets finally landed the big fish they’ve been angling for in free agency, as Juan Soto has agreed to sign a record-breaking contract that will keep him in Queens until 2039. Soto’s deal will pay him $765 million over the next 15 seasons, besting the total value of Shohei Ohtani’s contract from a year ago by $65 million. But does it really matter where Soto is playing when considering his Fantasy value? To find out, check out my full-length article on the signing, which also addresses the impact on the rest of the Mets lineup and the free agent market as a whole. –Chris Towers

    Conforto’s 2024 stat line may not look particularly impressive, but it was his best since the 2019-20 stretch that made him one of the most highly regarded outfielders in Fantasy. Even more notable is what happened under the hood. His .479 xSLG was just as good as those peak seasons as his average (90.2 mph) and max (113.6 mph) exit velocities jumped to 68th and 90th percentile, respectively. A quick look at the splits will tell you Oracle Park wasn’t doing him any favors. Away from there, he hit .253 with and .852 OPS and 17 of his 20 home runs overall. The Dodgers certainly took notice, and judging by the data, there’s a chance he goes the Teoscar Hernandez and J.D. Martinez route of blowing away expectations on a one-year deal. The Dodgers’ recent with such signings is all the more incentive for me to mark Conforto as a sleeper, ranking him just outside of my top 50 outfielders. –Scott White

    Willy Adames signs with Giants

    I had already positioned myself as an Adames skeptic for next year, ranking him 10th at shortstop after he just placed fifth there, and this signing only fortifies my position. Oracle Park isn’t quite the neutralizer it once was, but it still rates as the third-worst home run venue for right-handed hitters over the past three years while American Family Field rates as the sixth-best. On the other hand, Adames has batted .321 (18 for 56) with an .827 OPS in 16 career games in San Francisco, and Statcast estimates that he would have hit 31 home runs playing every game there last year vs. the 32 he actually hit. So maybe it won’t be so bad?

    The issue is in using Adames’ 2024 as a basis for comparison when it was almost certainly his best-case outcome. His exit velocities, strikeout rate and batted-ball angles were all in line with career norms, and yet his batting average (.251) was his highest in three years, his home runs (32) were his most ever, and he also stole 21 bases when he had never reached even double digits before. It also probably goes without saying that he won’t have a combined 205 runs and RBI as the most feared hitter in a mediocre Giants lineup. So if this signing makes you skeptical of a repeat performance, that’s probably for the best. You already should have been. –Scott White

    Seems like the Orioles are moving in their left field fence just in time. O’Neill just had a resurgent season with the Red Sox in part because he made a concerted effort to pull the ball in the air more — a fine strategy for a right-handed hitter at Fenway Park but one that would have brought such a player to ruin at Camden Yards the past couple years. Fortunately, the reported changes to the left field fence there should make it a more neutral environment for right-handed hitters, and notably, O’Neill’s career season (2021) came in St. Louis, which is also a challenging place for right-handers to hit it out.

    Perhaps, then, the more significant variable for O’Neill than venue is his own health. Cutting a muscular figure, the 29-year-old has been particularly susceptible to strains, playing just 65 percent of his team’s games the past four years, and even when healthy, his limited bat control (he struck out a career worst 33.6 percent last year) has made for unpredictable outcomes. He has the upside of top-20 outfielder, but the concerns piled on top of concerns drop him to 36th in my outfield rankings. –Scott White

    After three years as the Yankees on-again, off-again closer, Holmes is switching not just leagues but also roles, getting a shot as a starter on a three-year, $38 million deal. The role isn’t totally foreign to him, seeing as he spent much of his minor-league career as a starter, and in the years since, he’s developed a more trustworthy arsenal and stable enough command to attempt this move back. While his sinkerball approach may have been ill-suited for closing, leaving him too vulnerable to hits in high-leverage moments, it’s likely to minimize damage over extended stretches. For all the tense moments as a closer, the ERA was always good, after all. This signing raises Holmes’ Fantasy appeal in the hopes he can follow in the footsteps of successful relievers-turned-starters like Michael King, Reynaldo Lopez and Bowden Francis, and interest should be especially high in Head-to-Head points leagues, where he figures to be one of the top 15 relievers drafted. –Scott White 

    It’s a one-year pact with a player option for a second just in base Bieber’s recovery from Tommy John surgery goes poorly. His entire future in Fantasy of course hinges on that recovery. You’ll remember the former Cy Young winner seemed to be on the verge of regaining ace standing after an offseason spent working with Driveline Baseball, regaining the bite on his slider and dominating through two starts. But then his elbow began barking, and well, you know the rest. The earliest we can hope to see Bieber is June 2025, which means he’ll only be worth stashing in leagues with ample IL stash. Which version of Bieber shows up then is anybody’s guess, but it’s encouraging that the organization that knows him best opted to re-up with him. –Scott White 

    After playing with two AL East teams in the same game last season, Jansen continues his tour around the division by joining the Rays, where he will likely be the starting catcher. That didn’t go quite so well for either Toronto or Boston in 2024, as Jansen struggled through one of his worst seasons ever, hitting just .205/.309/.349, so the Rays are surely hoping for a bounce-back on this one-year deal. Jansen makes a lot of contact and has a decent eye at the plate, but his quality of contact has been in a freefall in his late 20s, with his expected wOBA on contact dropping from .408 in 2022 to .291 last season. If he can rediscover some of the pop he has last in recent years, he could be a decent No. 2 catcher, especially with the Rays making a move to what we think will be a hitter-friendly home at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa this season. Jansen is a viable, low-end No. 2 catcher for deeper formats, but shouldn’t be viewed as a priority, even in 15-team leagues. –Chris Towers

    Luis Severino signs with the Athletics

    The A’s made a surprising splash in free agency with their three-year contract with Severino for $67 million, the largest guaranteed contract in franchise history. It’s a less-than-ideal landing spot for Severino’s Fantasy value in 2025, unfortunately, as the A’s still figure to be a pretty middling team (at best) in 2025 and are moving from a pitcher friendly park to one that may play at least a bit closer to average. That would be a downgrade for Severino, after he spent a year rebuilding his value in a very pitcher-friendly park with the Mets. 

    To his credit, Severino did a great job rebuilding that value with the Mets, and he did so by showing a lot more flexibility as a pitcher than ever before. At his best, Severino didn’t really need much of a gameplan, as he just pumped four-seamers and sliders past hitters, throwing those two pitches 85-90% of the time. In 2024, he introduced a sweeper and greatly increased his sinker usage, giving him six pitches he threw at least 7% of the time. The Mets have become a very good pitching development organization, and Severino benefited from his time with them. The likeliest outcome here is that Severino isn’t much more than a rotation filler for Fantasy, but if he can stay healthy, he’ll have moments of usefulness. And, if the strikeout rate jump he tapped into in the second half of the season (26.2%) sticks, maybe he can even be a bit more than that. But he probably doesn’t need to be much more than a late-rounder in drafts, and even that might be overstating it if he has a poor early schedule. –Chris Towers

    About four months away from the start of the season, it’s nearly impossible to say what the Red Sox plans for the back end of the bullpen are, but Chapman surely figures to be part of them now. Their returning saves leader is a tie between Justin Slaten and Josh Winckowski, who all had two each last season, while their most experienced in-house closer option is Liam Hendriks, who has pitched just five innings since 2022 after recovering from leukemia and then Tommy John surgery. Chapman is no longer the lights-out closer he was at his best, but the soon-to-be 37-year-old still strikes out nearly 40% of opposing batters (despite losing a tick or two off fastball last season) and can get the job done on a one-year deal. At this point, it makes sense to treat him like the favorite for the ninth inning in Boston in 2025, at least until we see what Hendriks looks like in the spring – for what it’s worth, Hendricks’ fastball velocity was down 2-3 mph in his brief minor-league rehab assignment toward the end of last season, which doesn’t bode well. –Chris Towers

    Another retread-gone-right, Boyd is earned a two-year deal with the Cubs after a successful eight-start run with the Guardians in 2024. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery last season, with underlying peripherals that mostly backed it up – thanks, in large part, to a strong 27.7% strikeout rate. Boyd’s velocity was mostly back up to pre-injury levels, though that still makes him a soft-tosser at this point, so his success will be based on his effective his slider/changeup combo can be. Both pitches were excellent in 2024, but the underlying pitch characteristics don’t necessarily back up what he accomplished, with most pitch modeling metrics suggesting Boyd was a below-average pitcher in 2024. A year further removed from surgery, maybe Boyd can take another step forward and find success with a pretty clear path to a rotation spot for the Cubs, but he doesn’t have to be much more than a late-round, bench-spot flier even in deeper leagues. –Chris Towers

    The Mets have a rotation to rebuild, and the first step was adding a pitcher coming off a down year split between the Reds and Brewers. Or maybe calling it a “down year” is soft-pedaling given that it was Montas’ first back from surgery to the labrum in his right shoulder. His velocity was basically up to snuff, though, and he did see his K/9 rate jump from 7.5 in his 19 starts with the Reds to 11.0 in his 11 starts with the Brewers. Even prior to the 2023 shoulder surgery, his career was defined by inconsistency due to the on-again, off-again nature of his splitter. The Mets fared well with reclamation projects like Sean Manaea and Luis Severino last season and have agreed to pay Montas $34 million over the next two, so they clearly see something they like. We shouldn’t rule out a bounce-back season, particularly since the cost in Fantasy will be so low. –Scott White 

    To the surprise of no one, the Dodgers have landed the first marquee free agent of the offseason, agreeing to a five-year $182 million deal with Blake Snell Tuesday. It’s a big commitment for what’s been the model organization the past few years and may go a long way toward allaying fears about Snell’s irregularities. While he’s put together a  2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 over the past three seasons, much has been made about the way he came about those numbers. For more, check out my full-length article breaking down the signing. –Scott White 

    The three-year, $63 million deal is a modest one for a pitcher who seemed to have real momentum heading into the offseason, having just put together a 2.70 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 in his 10 starts for the Astros. The improved performance coincided with Kikuchi roughly doubling his slider usage, and his 2025 destination matters less for his Fantasy value than whether or not he sticks to that approach.

    He has always missed bats at a good rate but has gotten inconsistent results due to questionable pitch selection and a penchant for hard contact. Going to the Angels gives him a lower margin for error than if he had gone to a true contender and also does nothing to soften his vulnerability to the long ball, but again, his success is tied more to continuing his slider-heavy approach. And for that, we’ll just have to wait and see. I cautiously rank him just inside my top 50 starting pitchers for 2025, but he has the upside for more. –Scott White

    Unfortunately, this trade is close to a worse-case scenario for the two major players involved. India goes from the most favorable park for home runs — i.e., one of the few where his fringy power plays — to one of the least favorable. According to Statcast, his 63 career home runs would be 42 if he played every game  at Kauffman Stadium. Obviously, the reverse move is bad for Singer, a pitcher who’s on the more pitch-to-contact side of the ledger, but since he generally puts the ball on the ground, maybe it’s not as bad. Then again, he has a career 3.92 ERA at home in Kauffman Stadium compared to a 4.74 ERA everywhere else.

    Neither India nor Singer figured to be a hot commodity prior to this trade, and both might go undrafted now in shallower leagues. India is a little more useful in points leagues because of his on-base skills, and both he and Singer at least stand to be high-volume plays. India’s removal does free up some of the Reds’ infield logjam with Matt McLain expected back, penciling in Noelvi Marte at third base again. –Scott White

    Rather than test the free agent market, Martinez accepted the Reds’ qualifying offer of $21.05 million, which isn’t altogether surprising given that it now represents roughly 40 percent of his career MLB earnings. That the Reds extended the offer is telling. They had a front-row seat to the 34-year-old’s career season and bought in hard at an amount that virtually guarantees he’ll be a full-time starter rather than reverting to a swingman role.

    Perhaps, then, we should take Martinez just as seriously. He’s always had a killer changeup, and he became a strike-thrower of the highest order in 2024, boasting the third-best walk rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. His home run prevention was probably too good to be true, particularly for pitching half his games in Cincinnati, but he won’t be priced for another 3.10 ERA. More likely, he’ll be sort of a poor man’s Jose Berrios or Zach Eflin, good for piling up innings with a low WHIP, and he takes on added value in Head-to-Head points leagues due to his relief pitcher eligibility.  –Scott White

    Finally freed of his catching tandem with Sean Murphy, d’Arnaud was quick to put himself in another one, this time with up-and-comer Logan O’Hoppe. It’s frustrating for a couple reasons, one being that O’Hoppe loses some of the volume that made him so attractive for Fantasy, likely going from a 75 percent workload share to 60 percent or less, and the other being that d’Arnaud himself could have pursued a full-time role. Instead, d’Arnaud figures to remain a fringe second catcher for two-catcher leagues, and while O’Hoppe doesn’t necessarily slide down the rankings — he was already regarded as a low-end No. 1 — his upside takes a hit. Maybe his .196 batting average in the second half is evidence he was overworked, but even if it improves, his counting stats will be capped.

    Meanwhile, Murphy has a golden opportunity to reestablish himself in Atlanta after bombing for the past season-and-a-half there. Injuries have likely contributed to his struggles, as has irregular playing time due to the presence of d’Arnaud, but he’ll need to prove himself quickly to hold off prospect Drake Baldwin. –Scott White

    Only three months after acquiring him from the Giants, the Braves flipped Soler to the Angels in what was essentially a salary dump. They ended up non-tendering the player they got back in the deal, Griffin Canning. You might think Soler’s departure reflects well on Ronald Acuna’s recovery from a torn ACL, but GM Alex Anthopoulos later confessed that the star outfielder likely won’t be ready for the start of 2025. As for Soler, he has an easy claim to the Angels’ DH spot and will play in a pretty nice venue, particularly for home runs, but his success has never depended on such factors. He’s a mercurial performer coming off a down season but still has the 35-homer upside to pay off handsomely as a fourth or fifth outfielder. –Scott White

  • Fantasy Baseball Offseason Tracker: Îngerii semnează Yusei Kikuchi; nici un câștigător în Jonathan India, afacere Brady Singer

    Primul agent liber marcat a ieșit de pe consiliu, Dodgers fiind de acord marți la un contract de cinci ani cu Blake Snell.

    Este un memento că sezonul sobelor fierbinți este aici, la fel și Chris Towers și cu mine pentru a vă ghida prin tranzacțiile cu consecințe reale pentru Fantasy Baseball. Așa este: ați aterizat în locul în care vom reacționa la ele pe măsură ce se întâmplă, dezvăluind ceea ce înseamnă ele pentru schițele din 2025.

    Pe lângă Snell, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso și Garrett Crochet sunt printre cei mai buni jucători care ar putea schimba mâinile în acest extrasezon. Pe măsură ce apar știrile, veți fi bucuroși că aveți o oprire pentru a urmări totul.

    Așa că marcați această pagină și continuați să verificați înapoi. Nu știi niciodată ce mișcare ți-ar putea remodela întregul proiect de plan.

    Mets au o rotație de reconstruit, iar primul pas a fost adăugarea unui ulcior care venea dintr-un an slab împărțit între Reds și Brewers. Sau poate că a-l numi „an în jos” este o pedală moale, având în vedere că a fost prima întoarcere a lui Montas de la operație la labrumul de la umărul drept. Viteza lui a fost practic până la snuff, totuși și și-a văzut rata K/9 sărind de la 7,5 în cele 19 starturi ale lui Roșii la 11,0 în cele 11 starturi ale lui Brewers. Chiar și înainte de operația la umăr din 2023, cariera sa a fost definită de inconsecvență din cauza naturii din nou, din nou a despărțitorului său. Mets s-a descurcat bine cu proiecte de recuperare precum Sean Manaea și Luis Severino sezonul trecut și au fost de acord să plătească lui Montas 34 de milioane de dolari în următoarele două, așa că văd clar ceva ce le place. Nu ar trebui să excludem un sezon de revenire, mai ales că costul în Fantasy va fi atât de mic. –Scott White

    Blake Snell semnează cu Dodgers

    Spre surprinderea nimănui, Dodgers au obținut primul agent liber marcant al extrasezonului, acceptând marți un contract pe cinci ani de 182 de milioane de dolari cu Blake Snell. Este un angajament mare pentru ceea ce a fost organizația model în ultimii câțiva ani și poate contribui în mare măsură la atenuarea temerilor legate de neregulile lui Snell. Deși a adunat un ERA de 2,82, 1,16 WHIP și 12,0 K/9 în ultimele trei sezoane, s-au făcut multe despre modul în care a ajuns la aceste numere. Pentru mai mult, vezi articolul meu integral defalcarea semnării. –Scott White

    Acordul de trei ani, de 63 de milioane de dolari, este unul modest pentru un pitcher care părea să aibă un impuls real în sensul extrasezonului, după ce tocmai a reunit o efectivă de 2,70, 0,93 WHIP și 11,4 K/9 în cele 10 starturi ale sale pentru Astros. Performanța îmbunătățită a coincis cu Kikuchi și-a dublat aproximativ utilizarea glisorului, iar destinația sa din 2025 contează mai puțin pentru valoarea sa Fantasy decât dacă rămâne sau nu la această abordare.

    Întotdeauna a ratat liliecii într-un ritm bun, dar a obținut rezultate inconsecvente din cauza selecției îndoielnice a terenului și a înclinației pentru contactul dur. Mersul la Angels îi oferă o marjă de eroare mai mică decât dacă ar fi mers la un adevărat concurent și, de asemenea, nu face nimic pentru a-și atenua vulnerabilitatea la mingea lungă, dar, din nou, succesul său este legat mai mult de continuarea abordării sale grele de slider. Și pentru asta, va trebui doar să așteptăm și să vedem. L-am clasat cu prudență chiar în topul celor 50 de lanceri titulari pentru 2025, dar are avantajul pentru mai mult. –Scott White

    Din păcate, această tranzacție este aproape de un scenariu mai rău pentru cei doi jucători majori implicați. India trece de la cel mai favorabil parc pentru home run-uri — adică unul dintre puținele unde joacă puterea lui — la unul dintre cele mai puțin favorabile. Potrivit Statcast, cele 63 de home run-uri din carieră ar fi 42 dacă ar juca fiecare meci pe Kauffman Stadium. Evident, mișcarea inversă este dăunătoare pentru Singer, un ulcior care se află pe partea mai pitch-to-contact a registrului, dar din moment ce în general pune mingea pe pământ, poate că nu este. la fel de rău. Apoi, din nou, are o carieră de 3,92 ERA acasă pe stadionul Kauffman, comparativ cu 4,74 ERA peste tot.

    Nici India, nici Singer nu s-au gândit a fi o marfă fierbinte înainte de această tranzacție, și ambele ar putea să rămână nedescrise acum în ligi mai puțin adânci. India este puțin mai utilă în ligile de puncte datorită abilităților sale la bază, și atât el, cât și Singer, cel puțin, sunt jocuri de mare volum. Îndepărtarea Indiei eliberează o parte din blocajul interior al roșiilor, Matt McLain fiind așteptat la întoarcere, creionând din nou pe Noelvi Marte la baza a treia. –Scott White

    În loc să testeze piața de agenți liberi, Martinez a acceptat oferta de calificare a Roșilor de 21,05 milioane de dolari, ceea ce nu este deloc surprinzător, având în vedere că acum reprezintă aproximativ 40% din câștigurile din cariera lui MLB. Că roșii au extins oferta este grăitor. Ei au avut un loc în primul rând pentru sezonul de carieră al jucătorului de 34 de ani și au cumpărat din greu la o sumă care practic garantează că va fi titular cu normă întreagă, mai degrabă decât să revină la un rol de swingman.

    Poate, atunci, ar trebui să-l luăm pe Martinez la fel de în serios. A avut întotdeauna o schimbare ucigașă și a devenit un aruncător de lovituri de cel mai înalt nivel în 2024, lăudându-se cu cea de-a treia cea mai bună rată de mers în rândul pistoleților cu cel puțin 100 de reprize. Prevenirea lui home run a fost probabil prea bună pentru a fi adevărată, în special pentru că a jucat jumătate din jocurile sale în Cincinnati, dar nu va primi preț pentru încă 3.10 ERA. Mai probabil, va fi un fel de Jose Berrios sau Zach Eflin al unui om sărac, bun pentru a acumula reprize cu un WHIP scăzut și va dobândi valoare adăugată în ligile de puncte Head-to-Head datorită eligibilității sale de aruncător de relief. –Scott White

    În cele din urmă, eliberat de tandemul său captivant cu Sean Murphy, d'Arnaud s-a grăbit să se pună într-un altul, de data aceasta alături de nou-venitul Logan O'Hoppe. Este frustrant din câteva motive, unul fiind că O'Hoppe pierde o parte din volumul care l-a făcut atât de atractiv pentru Fantasy, probabil trecând de la o cotă de lucru de 75% la 60% sau mai puțin, iar celălalt fiind că d'Arnaud însuși ar putea. au exercitat un rol cu ​​normă întreagă. În schimb, d'Arnaud se gândește că va rămâne un al doilea capturator marginal pentru ligile cu doi captori și, deși O'Hoppe nu coboară neapărat în clasament — el era deja considerat ca fiind numărul 1 la nivel inferior — avantajul său îl ia. o lovitură. Poate că media lui de bataie de .196 din a doua jumătate este o dovadă că a fost suprasolicitat, dar chiar dacă se îmbunătățește, statisticile lui de numărare vor fi limitate.

    Între timp, Murphy are o oportunitate de aur de a se restabili în Atlanta, după ce a bombardat în ultimul sezon și jumătate acolo. Accidentele au contribuit probabil la luptele sale, la fel ca și timpul de joc neregulat din cauza prezenței lui d'Arnaud, dar va trebui să se dovedească rapid pentru a-l ține pe viitorul Drake Baldwin. –Scott White

    La doar trei luni după ce l-au achiziționat de la Giants, Braves l-au întors pe Soler în locul lui Angels, în ceea ce a fost în esență o pierdere de salarii. Au ajuns să nu-l ofere pe jucătorul pe care l-au primit înapoi în afacere, Griffin Canning. S-ar putea să credeți că plecarea lui Soler reflectă bine recuperarea lui Ronald Acuna de la un LCA rupt, dar GM Alex Anthopoulos a mărturisit mai târziu că jucătorul de câmp nu va fi pregătit pentru începutul anului 2025. În ceea ce privește Soler, el are o pretenție ușoară față de Angels. ' DH va juca într-un loc destul de frumos, în special pentru home runs, dar succesul său nu a depins niciodată de astfel de factori. El este un jucător mercurial care vine dintr-un sezon jos, dar are încă 35 de gaze avantajos pentru a plăti frumos ca al patrulea sau al cincilea jucător. –Scott White

  • Offseason MLB: Cel mai bun relever Jeff Hoffman pe agenția sa liberă

    • Kiley McDaniel, ESPN MLB Insider26 noiembrie 2024, 07:00 ET

      Aproape

      • ESPN MLB Insider
      • Kiley McDaniel acoperă perspectivele MLB, Draft-ul MLB și multe altele, inclusiv tranzacții și agenții libere.
      • A lucrat pentru trei echipe MLB.
        • Coautor al cărții „Future Value”

    Jeff Hoffman este unul dintre cei mai căutați relevi din clasa de agent liber din acest extrasezon, după o rundă dominantă cu Philadelphia Phillies, dar a fost nevoie de o schimbare incredibilă a carierei pentru a-l aduce aici.

    În ajunul sezonului 2023, fosta alegere numărul 9 la general nu a reușit să se înscrie în lista de deschidere a gemenilor din Minnesota și a devenit agent liber. Avea doar 0,9 WAR în carieră la acea vreme — și 0,0 WAR în cele cinci sezoane anterioare. Dar i-a prins pe Phillies cu o afacere de ligă minoră și a avut o lacrimă de doi ani după ce a fost adăugat la lista ligii majore în mai 2023, afișând 3.5 WAR care ocupă locul al cincilea în ligii majore printre releviști din acea perioadă. Acum, el este gata să încaseze după ce a redescoperit ceea ce l-a făcut, în primul rând, o alegere mare la draft.

    Există o serie de întrebări în timp ce dreptaciul în vârstă de 31 de ani se pregătește pentru ziua de plată în extrasezon: cum a făcut această schimbare, dacă vrea să treacă înapoi la a fi pitcher titular, dacă vibrațiile din Philly sunt suficient de puternice pentru a-i convinge. el să se întoarcă și care sunt prioritățile lui în găsirea unui nou club.

    L-am prins din urmă pe Hoffman când își alege următoarea casă (sau decide să rămână în cea actuală).

    Cum a întors Hoffman

    Pentru a înțelege cum s-a reinventat Hoffman în Philadelphia, mai întâi trebuie să înțelegeți unde au început lucrurile să meargă prost. Hoffman a trecut de la o perspectivă de top la un lanț tânăr care se luptă cu Colorado Rockies și Cincinnati Reds.

    După ce a fost selectat de Toronto Blue Jays în draftul din 2014 în timp ce se recupera de la operația lui Tommy John, el a făcut 13 starturi în ligă minoră în sezonul următor, înainte de a fi împărțit cu Colorado în schimbul Troy Tulowitzki. Hoffman a ajuns în ligile mari în 2016 cu Rockies și a înregistrat o campanie solidă de 1.1 WAR în 2017, în primul rând ca titular (99⅓ reprize, 4,76 ERA). După aceea, însă, a fost fie accidentat, fie ineficient, inclusiv două sezoane cu Roșii și un antrenament de primăvară cu Gemenii. Hoffman nu toca cuvintele despre ceea ce l-a reținut la începutul carierei sale profesionale, indicând instrucțiunile care i s-au dat și încercarea sa de a le integra pe toate.

    “Am fost hrănit cu o mulțime de tauri mecanici — în primii mei ani, antrenori care încercau să-și pună amprenta”, a spus Hoffman. “[Mechanics] era ca mingea și lanțul de care eram legat. Dacă aș fi ales prin chestiile astea, nu aș fi ajuns să pierd câțiva ani la începutul carierei mele. … Sunt un învățător, sunt un ascultător, am luat prea multe din indiciile mecanice, încercând mereu să mulțumesc și să fiu respectuos față de oricine dă informația.”

    Totuși, Hoffman crede că acumularea treptată de noi părți ale jocului său l-a ajutat în cele din urmă la transformarea lui într-un All-Star. Trebuia doar să pună la punct ceea ce a cules pe parcurs și să învețe să propună fără să aibă prea multe gânduri intruzive (și voci exterioare) în cap.

    „Când am încetat să mă gândesc la „Unde este partea din față?” sau „Când este călcâiul meu pe pământ?” și tot acel BS, am reușit să-mi îmbunătățesc comanda, viteza mi s-a îmbunătățit și nu încerc neapărat să arunc tare acum, doar așa iese”, a spus el. „Corpul meu se mișcă așa cum vreau eu să mă mișc”.

    Amestecul de teren care îi va aduce un contract de opt cifre în această iarnă a început cu lucruri pe care le-a implementat în vremurile sale tulburi din Colorado și Cincinnati.

    “În Colorado, am introdus un splitter. Nu a fost un splitter adevărat, mai degrabă un splitter-schimbare. Nu ieșea atât de greu, nu l-am aruncat atât de mult pe cât ar fi trebuit”, a spus Hoffman. “Întotdeauna aruncasem o minge curbă. Eram mereu atașată de ea. Nu m-am încurcat prea mult cu un slider, apoi Cincinnati mi-a adus un slider, încercând să ridic velo. Nu am putut să-l ridic până la 86- 88 de mile pe oră pentru a se potrivi cu splitterul, chiar m-am luptat cu asta… „De ce nu pot face asta dacă îmi arunc mingea rapidă cu 95 de mile pe oră?”.

    Cum domină Hoffman

    Dacă Gemenii și-ar fi luat puțin mai mult timp pentru a vedea ce au, poate că erupția lui Hoffman ar fi venit în Minnesota și nu în Philadelphia. El arată că primăvara aceea cu Minnesota era prima dată când s-a simțit ca același ulcior care i-a impresionat pe cercetași ca potențial la draft.

    „A fost începutul nașterii mele pentru a reveni la ceea ce arăta la facultate. Lucrurile mele ieșeau mai bine și mai exploziv, primind din nou leagăne urâte, semne pozitive bune.

    „Dacă te uiți la mine acum împotriva Cape Cod și la începutul carierei mele… acum arăt mult mai asemănător cu cariera mea de colegiu decât cu cum arătam în Cincinnati și Colorado. Am renunțat complet la o parte din acea ligă minoră timpurie. lucruri care mi s-au dat.”

    Lucrurile lui Hoffman au fost atât de urâte în timpul petrecut în Cape Cod League, plină de perspective, încât să-l privesc lansând acolo în 2013 rămâne printre cele mai impresionante starturi de amatori pe care le-am cercetat.

    Dar există un domeniu în care Hoffman depășește în mod clar chiar și acea versiune timpurie a lui însuși. El are de mulțumit Gemenilor pentru că au deblocat viteza care a făcut din glisor tonul său caracteristic.

    „Pete Maki [Twins pitching coach in 2023] a spus să încercăm un tăietor. Aruncă-o ca o minge rapidă, apoi aruncă la stânga la sfârșit. A fost groaznic, dar a fost 89 de mile pe oră într-o sesiune de bullpen. 'Oh s—, asta funcționează!' A fost doar o goană să repet velo, chiar dacă am renunțat la un home run, doar l-am aruncat cu 89 de mile pe oră și îl numesc un slider. Zi de zi, urmărind asta… uneori este nevoie doar de un indiciu mental și ești în spatele mingii și nu lângă ea [at release].”

    Înarmat cu o minge rapidă de la mijlocul anilor ’90 și un slider din anii ’80 de sus și s-a despărțit când s-a alăturat boxei Phillies, Hoffman era gata să fie dezlănțuit.

    „Fastball, slider, split simt toate la fel din mâna mea, doar prinderea se schimbă”, a spus Hoffman. „Toți ies ca și cum aș arunca 100 [mph] la mijloc, iar prinderea și învârtirile au grijă de mișcare. Forța cu care degetele este cheia.”

    El se gândește la arsenalul său ca la patru mingi rapide care se mișcă toate în direcții diferite. „Spliterul meu nu mai este [an] teren în afara vitezei, este doar o versiune diferită a mingii mele rapide. Sinker-ul meu este o minge de bowling tip minge rapidă, glisorul este unul care se mișcă la stânga. Îmi văd despărțirea ca pe o minge rapidă cu degetele despicate și nu ca pe o minge cu furcă, asta este important. … Mă ajută să am o pardoseală de mare viteză pe toate.”

    Hoffman a avut o istorie de rate de mers pe jos mai slabe decât media până la aterizare cu Phillies. Și asta a fost mai mult o problemă de abordare decât una fizică. „Există ulcioare de comandă și ulcioare de chestii, nu-i cere unuia să fie celălalt”.

    „Ca și în golf, țintește spre centru, astfel încât să poți rata puțin la dreapta sau la stânga”, a spus Hoffman. “Nu cred că sunt un aruncător de comandă, dar nu sunt rău la aruncarea loviturilor. O să te înving pentru că este prea greu pentru lovitur să ia decizia.”

    Probabil că nu te aștepți ca un relever la sfârșitul inningului, care suflă foc, cu chestii de swing și ratare, să fie atât de concentrat pe aruncarea mingii în zona de atac, dar este cheia modului în care Hoffman atacă.

    “Mă gândesc că batetorul este defensiv față de ceea ce fac, nu încearcă să execute terenul perfect. Este un joc de decizii de swing și vreau să pun presiune asupra acestor decizii. îi provoc și intru în zonă.”

    Hoffman nu se uită la o mulțime de informații dense după joc, ci se măsoară după trei metrici: rata ratelor în zonă, rata zonei și rata barilului. „Îmi place să-l mențin la 88 de mile pe oră și mai puțin. Dacă încep să renunț la 95-plus [mph exit velo batted balls]este nevoie doar de traiectoria corectă și ar putea fi în afara parcului. La sfârșitul jocului, nu poți renunța la asta. Starterilor li se spune că home run solo nu te va ucide. Ca relevator, home run-ul solo te omoara.

    „Ceea ce am reținut din toate statisticile, videoclipurile, studiile și videoclipurile Edgertronic este că felul în care mingea iese din mâna ta te ajută să înțelegi cu adevărat de ce terenurile se mișcă așa cum o fac. Face mai ușor să faci ajustări și este un joc de ajustări nu ai neapărat cele mai bune lucruri în fiecare seară, dar trebuie să le faci să funcționeze.

    Starter sau relever?

    În timp ce Hoffman ocupă locul în fruntea listei de relevi în clasa acestei ierni, există tot mai multe discuții din industrie că echipele îi dau cauciucurile ca titular — dacă el este interesat să se angajeze pentru un nou rol.

    „Cred că aș fi un titular grozav dacă s-ar primi din nou această oportunitate”, a spus Hoffman. „A fost cool să văd ce [Reynaldo Lopez and Jordan Hicks] am făcut anul trecut și, pentru mine, cu cât de sănătos sunt și cu ce am făcut în ultimii ani cu arsenalul meu, este un gând interesant. … Este logic ca băieții cu arsenale mai profunde decât majoritatea releviștilor au găsit succes.”

    Hoffman înțelege că revenirea la o rotație a ligii majore pentru prima dată de când Colorado l-a mutat în bullpen după sezonul 2019 ar fi un test unic. El știe, de asemenea, că lansarea are un sentiment de neegalat în situațiile pline de presiune în care a prosperat în ultimele două sezoane.

    „Până când a fost adus înapoi [by interested teams]am presupus că acea navă navigase. … Ar fi total diferit de prima rundă. Simt că am din nou 24 de ani. … Mă mișc așa cum ar trebui să fac acum. privesc [starting] ca o mare provocare. Sunt la fel de sănătos ca am fost vreodată. Aș primi oportunitatea. … Îmi place să lansez din cartierul de boi și să întârzii jocurile, de asemenea.”

    Este deschis către o nouă întorsătură de carieră, dar este și destul de mulțumit de cine a devenit.

    „Fiind toate lucrurile egale, vreau să scot ultimul”.

    Ce vrea Hoffman iarna asta

    Hoffman are mai multe de cântărit în această iarnă decât semnarea ca lanț titular sau ca relever.

    În perioada petrecută în Philadelphia, s-a obișnuit să lanseze în cele mai mari locuri pentru una dintre cele mai bune echipe din baseball, în fața uneia dintre cele mai pasionate baze de fani din acest sport. Acești factori fac ca revenirea la Phillies să fie o posibilitate puternică.

    „Este greu de explicat cum se simte lansarea în Philly, din cauza zgomotului, cât de în ton cu jocul [the fans] Sunt, se simte ca suprafața terenului este vie”, a spus el. “Când se întâmplă momentele mari, poți auzi asta de la sol, ca și cum stadionul are aceeași bătaie a inimii ca tine.”

    Dacă Hoffman părăsește Phillies pentru o nouă echipă, va căuta o organizație cu priorități similare.

    „Cel mai important pentru mine este să fiu pe un concurent, să joc până în octombrie”, a spus el. „Jucând baseball semnificativ, face clubul mult mai plăcut când toată lumea joacă pentru același lucru. Asta îmi doresc din următoarea mea situație”.