Tag: odds

The Week 16 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 16 slate, including the surging Eagles trying to lock up the NFC East title versus the Commanders. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Saints and the Packers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
NYG-ATL | DET-CHI | CLE-CIN
TEN-IND | LAR-NYJ | PHI-WSH
ARI-CAR | MIN-SEA | NE-BUF
JAX-LV | SF-MIA | TB-DAL
NO-GB

Thursday and Saturday scores

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ATL -9 (42.5 O/U)

Giants storyline to watch: As the Giants try to avoid a franchise-record 10th straight loss, wide receiver Malik Nabers has a bunch of records in sight. He’s 99 yards away from being a 1,000-yard receiver and two catches from passing Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. for most receptions by a rookie in franchise history. Nabers, with 90 catches, has a shot at Puka Nacua’s NFL rookie record of 105 catches. — Jordan Raanan

Falcons storyline to watch: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the eighth pick in the 2024 draft, will make his first NFL start. Coach Raheem Morris said this week that Penix has not thrown much to the team’s starting wide receivers in practice because he has been the scout team quarterback behind Kirk Cousins since OTAs. But Penix trained with Ray-Ray McCloud III in the offseason, and the two have developed good chemistry. — Marc Raimondi

Stat to know: Running back Bijan Robinson is one touchdown away from being the first Falcons player with 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in a season since Devonta Freeman in 2016.

Bold prediction: Penix will record a 60-plus QBR. Facing the Giants, the Falcons should be able to limit the ask on him, and I think the result will be an efficient performance in a win. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Falcons are one game back of the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. Atlanta currently has a 29% chance of making the playoffs and a 21% chance of winning the division, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.

Injuries: Giants | Falcons

Fantasy X factor: Nabers. He has four-plus receptions in every game this season, the second-longest streak in the league, and 10-plus targets in nine of those games. The Falcons’ defense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so starting the Giants’ only viable threat would be the smart play. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their past nine games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their past four games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Falcons 28, Giants 14
Moody’s pick: Falcons 28, Giants 17
Walder’s pick: Falcons 24, Giants 16
FPI prediction: ATL, 62.9% (by an average of 5.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Giants turn back to Lock as starting QB vs. Falcons … Falcons’ Cousins: Told Penix ‘I’d be in his corner’ … Giants’ Daboll and Schoen: Stay or go?

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DET -6.5 (47.5 O/U)

Lions storyline to watch: Detroit has been bitten by the injury bug with a league-high 21 players currently on the injured reserve list, including running back David Montgomery, who sustained a torn MCL in the loss to the Bills. Without Montgomery, coach Dan Campbell is confident in Jahmyr Gibbs’ ability as the Lions’ “lead horse.” Gibbs said his on-field mindset won’t change. “I’ve been doing this my whole life, so I don’t look at it any different,” he said. — Eric Woodyard

Bears storyline to watch: Chicago’s eight straight losses are taking a toll on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. “Losing is one of those things that really affects me,” Williams said. “It’s tough.” The Bears have their second straight NFC North matchup, coming off a loss to Minnesota in which they converted only one third-down opportunity. Williams has the third-worst off-target percentage (21.4) this season and a 51 QBR against man coverage, which Detroit plays at the highest rate in the league (56%). — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: The Bears’ eight straight losses are tied for the second-longest losing streak in franchise history and their longest since losing 14 consecutive games in 2022-23.

Bold prediction: The Lions’ defense — yes, even with all the injuries — will bounce back and give up 15 or fewer points to the Bears. There’s real reason for concern for the Lions’ defense when it faces a good offense, as it did against the Bills last week. The Bears are not that. — Walder

What’s at stake: With a win, the Lions’ chances at the No.1 seed in the NFC improve to 65%, per ESPN Analytics. With a loss, they fall to 26%. Read more.

Injuries: Lions | Bears

Fantasy X factor: Gibbs. He has averaged 16.1 touches per game, and the Lions rely heavily on their running backs, backed by an offensive line that ranks 13th in run block win rate (71.6%). Plus, the Bears’ defense gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their past five as home underdogs. They have covered in three in a row. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Lions 34, Bears 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Bears 24
Walder’s pick: Lions 34, Bears 13
FPI prediction: DET, 71.9% (by an average of 8.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Campbell takes blame for loss vs. Bills … Losing ‘really affects me,’ says Bears QB Williams … DE Hutchinson on track for Super Bowl return … Coach Thomas Brown defends Bears’ effort during skid

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -7.5 (46.5 O/U)

Browns storyline to watch: At quarterback, the Browns are turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a 2023 fifth-round pick who will make his fourth career start Sunday. His mobility should open some things in the run game, but, like the recently benched Jameis Winston, he will have to take better care of the ball. Thompson-Robinson has thrown seven interceptions to only one touchdown already. — Daniel Oyefusi

Bengals storyline to watch: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett has sacked quarterback Joe Burrow nine times, the most of any opponent in Burrow’s career. Cincinnati is trying to blank Garrett’s sack count against Burrow for the first time in five seasons. Getting Cody Ford (flu) back will be big for an offensive line still without Orlando Brown Jr. (fibula). — Ben Baby

Stat to know: Burrow has a 72 QBR in every Bengals loss this season. That’s the second-best mark since the metric was first calculated in 2006 (Ben Roethlisberger had a 76 QBR in six losses in 2018).

Bold prediction: Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson will record at least 2.5 sacks and reemerge as a defensive player of the year candidate. Thompson-Robinson hasn’t taken sacks at high rate in his career, but the sample is limited and I expect the Bengals to be ahead, which leads to more sacks. — Walder

What’s at stake: Any chance for the Bengals to make the postseason rides on this game. They will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Browns, and they currently hold the ninth-best odds at 6%, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.

Injuries: Browns | Bengals

Fantasy X factor: Browns running back Jerome Ford. Without Nick Chubb (foot), Ford should lead the Browns’ committee for the rest of the season. Expect him to get plenty of touches, even if the Bengals get out ahead early. He has been the primary back on passing downs all season, so he’ll stay involved no matter the score. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Browns are 0-3 ATS in their past three, 1-5 ATS in their past six and 3-9 ATS in their past 12. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bengals 30, Browns 13
Moody’s pick: Bengals 31, Browns 14
Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Browns 13
FPI prediction: CIN, 67.3% (by an average of 6.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Browns bench Winston; Thompson-Robinson to start vs. Bengals … Bengals RB Brown staking claim as featured running back … South Florida route-running culture embedded in Cleveland

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IND -3.5 (42.5 O/U)

Titans storyline to watch: Calvin Ridley needs 221 receiving yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark. He didn’t register a reception in the first meeting with the Colts despite being targeted eight times by then-starter Will Levis. Mason Rudolph will be the quarterback this time, which is good news for Ridley as his season-high 143 receiving yards came with Rudolph throwing to him against the Lions. — Turron Davenport

Colts storyline to watch: The Colts enter this week ranked 28th in yards allowed per game (366.1), their lowest mark since 2017 when they finished 4-12. Somehow, they’ve ranked better in scoring defense at 21st with 23.5 points per game. But an underrated byproduct has been Indianapolis having the NFL’s lowest time of possession at 26 minutes, 41 seconds per game. — Stephen Holder

Stat to know: Titans running back Tony Pollard needs 85 scrimmage yards to reach 1,300 for the third straight season. He would join Derrick Henry as the only players to reach that mark in each of the past three seasons.

Bold prediction: Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell will catch a 30-plus-air-yard pass. He has been targeted on five such throws this season and has zero receptions, but I’m convinced the connection is going to happen this weekend. ESPN’s open score loves Mitchell, giving him an 83 in the category. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Colts were eliminated from playoff contention after the Chargers defeated the Broncos on Thursday night. But the Titans still have something on the line, as their current 39% chance at a top-five pick will improve with a win, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.

Injuries: Titans | Colts

Fantasy X factor: Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. He struggled as a passer last week, completing just 44.7% of attempts, but he rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown. This week, he faces a Titans defense giving up the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and giving up the eighth-most rushing yards. Expect him to take advantage. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season. Six straight Titans road games have gone over the total. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Colts 21, Titans 12
Moody’s pick: Colts 24, Titans 13
Walder’s pick: Colts 17, Titans 9
FPI prediction: IND, 49.9% (by an average of 0.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Benched Levis: Still believe I can be Titans’ franchise QB … Butker, Bates and the life of an NFL kicker … Colts are good on first drives, but then fall apart

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAR -3 (46.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to watch: This is the 18th time starting quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers will face each other, which will be tied for the fifth most among starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs), according to ESPN Research. Rodgers has won 13 of them, but Stafford might have the upper hand this time since the Jets have won only twice in their past 11 games. — Sarah Barshop

Jets storyline to watch: Rodgers needs two touchdown passes to become only the fifth player in NFL history to hit the 500 mark. He’s playing his best ball of the year, having thrown for 628 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the past two games. The offense has produced 58 points and 802 yards, which are its most in back-to-back games this season. — Rich Cimini

Stat to know: The Rams are looking to become the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons after being three games under .500 at some point in the year.

Bold prediction: Rams rookie Jared Verse will record at least a 25% pass rush win rate and a sack against Jets rookie Olu Fashanu. The offensive tackle’s 87% pass block win rate is better than what Tyron Smith posted before his injury, but it is still below average. Verse is anything but average, and Sunday’s game could bolster his chances at Defensive Rookie of the Year. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Rams currently have a 54% chance to make playoffs and a 53% chance to win NFC West, per ESPN Analytics. Those chances improve to 65% and 64%, respectively, with a win. And they fall to 43% and 42%, respectively, with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Rams | Jets

Fantasy X factor: Rodgers. He came alive on Sunday against the Jaguars, dropping a season-high 30 fantasy points. That’s not surprising since Jacksonville has given up the most points to quarterbacks this season. He’s set up for another big game with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson as his top receivers because the Rams’ defense gives up the 13th-most passing yards per game (218.1). See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jets are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Rams 28, Jets 20
Moody’s pick: Rams 28, Jets 24
Walder’s pick: Rams 24, Jets 19
FPI prediction: LAR, 51.1% (by an average of 0.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: McVay galvanizes Rams to three-game win stretch … The real Rodgers saving his best for last with Jets … Wilson tries to clear air after sideline outburst

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -3.5 (45.5 O/U)

Eagles storyline to watch: The Eagles’ pass game awoke against the Steelers after several quiet games, with quarterback Jalen Hurts throwing for 290 yards and a pair of scores. Wide receiver A.J. Brown was targeted a season-high 11 times and finished with eight catches for 110 yards. Good things happen when Hurts goes Brown’s way, as the duo tops the NFL in yards per attempt (12.1). — Tim McManus

Commanders storyline to watch: In the first meeting in Week 11, a 26-18 Eagles win, Commanders leading receiver Terry McLaurin was targeted a season-low two times. Philadelphia often bracketed him in the red zone, and it didn’t help that he ran 22 of his 25 routes from the left side. But, in the past three games, Washington has moved him around more — 40 routes run from the left side and 22 on the right. More importantly, he has more than nine targets on both sides during this stretch. — John Keim

Stat to know: Hurts has 14 rushing touchdowns, which is the most in the NFL and tied for the third most by a quarterback through a season in NFL history. He had 15 in 2023, which Josh Allen matched in the same year for the second-most ever.

Bold prediction: McLaurin will record under 35 receiving yards. I’m fully buying the Eagles’ secondary, and he is far and away the most important Commanders target for a defense to try to stop. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Eagles can lock up the NFC East title with a win. If the Commanders win, they need the Falcons to lose, as well as losses by either the Rams or Seahawks, to make the postseason. Read more.

Injuries: Eagles | Commanders

Fantasy X factor: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. The Commanders’ defensive front ranks 24th in run stop win rate (29.1%), while the Eagles’ offensive line ranks ninth in run block win rate (72.9%). Washington also gives up the sixth-most rushing yards per game to running backs and is giving up 5.0 yards per carry. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Commanders are 10-3-1 ATS in the first quarter this season, which is the best in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 27
Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 24
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 58.8% (by an average of 3.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Eagles revive passing game as QB Hurts deals with broken finger … Bill provision may aid Commanders return to D.C. … Wives of Commanders kickers go into labor at same time

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ARI -5 (47.5 O/U)

Cardinals storyline to watch: The Panthers’ struggles throwing the ball this season will give the Cardinals a prime opportunity to continue their march toward a playoff spot. Their defense is giving up 217 passing yards per game and 6.94 passing yards per play and will line up across an offense that is among the worst passing teams in the NFL, averaging 186 yards per game (29th) and 5.69 yards per play (28th). — Josh Weinfuss

Panthers storyline to watch: Carolina probably will be without one of its best remaining defensive linemen (A’Shawn Robinson, knee) on a unit that already ranks last in the NFL against the run (giving up 173 yards per game). It also lost two more linebackers to IR (Trevin Wallace and Claudin Cherelus). That’s not good news when you’re facing the league’s seventh-best run offense, averaging 141 yards, and an elusive quarterback in Kyler Murray. — David Newton

Stat to know: With a loss, the Panthers would clinch five or fewer wins for the fifth time in the past six seasons. Before 2019, the franchise had only three seasons with five or fewer wins since they played their first NFL season in 1995.

Bold prediction: The Cardinals will score 35-plus points. It’s being slept on as to just how good Murray has been this season. He ranks fourth in QBR (68.4) without an exceptional offensive line or wide receiver room. And this week, he gets to show off against a Carolina defense that’s 31st in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play and 30th in EPA allowed per dropback. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Cardinals are a game back of the Rams and Seahawks for first place in the NFC West. Arizona enters Sunday with a 14% chance to win the division, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.

Injuries: Cardinals | Panthers

Fantasy X factor: Cardinals running back James Conner. He has averaged 18.4 touches per game and exploded for a season-high 30.8 fantasy points in Week 14. Now, he faces a Panthers defense that gives up the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Expect another big game. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered five straight games as underdogs. They are 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 30, Panthers 21
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 30, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 37, Panthers 17
FPI prediction: ARI, 74.6% (by an average of 9.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cardinals safety Baker lands 3-year extension … Sunday’s loss to Cowboys a microcosm of Panthers’ issues

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4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIN -3 (42.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings have struggled to win in Seattle, a trend that includes generations of players, coaches, front offices and ownership groups. They’ve lost their past five games there and have won only twice in 11 games over the past six decades. On paper, this season’s matchup favors the Vikings since their defense is tied for the NFL’s fourth-most sacks (42). The Seahawks have given up the league’s third-most sacks (47). — Kevin Seifert

Seahawks storyline to watch: Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings are blitzing on a league-high 39% of opponents’ dropbacks. Geno Smith has the ninth-best QBR (80.6) against the blitz, but will he have his usual ability to evade rushers and extend plays Sunday? Smith couldn’t finish Seattle’s loss to Green Bay because of a right knee injury, though he plans to play against Minnesota. — Brady Henderson

Stat to know: The Seahawks are 3-5 at home this season. A loss would mark their most home losses in a season since 2008, when they finished 2-6.

Bold prediction: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will throw at least two interceptions. Though the Vikings beat the Bears easily last week, Darnold struggled at times with accuracy and posted a negative-4% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

What’s at stake: Though the Vikings have clinched a playoff spot, the Seahawks currently hold a 36.2% chance to make the postseason, per ESPN Analytics. Seattle’s odds increase to 54.6% with a win and decrease to 23.3% with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Vikings | Seahawks

Fantasy X factor: Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He has been on fire since Seattle’s bye week, recording 18 or more fantasy points in four of his past five games. He faces a Vikings defense that has given up the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Expect Smith-Njigba to stay heavily involved and deliver another strong performance. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Vikings 24, Seahawks 17
Moody’s pick: Vikings 24, Seahawks 13
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 26, Vikings 20
FPI prediction: MIN, 58.9% (by an average of 3.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jefferson, Vikings pay tribute to Randy Moss amid cancer fight … Geno ‘better,’ plans to play despite knee injury

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4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -14 (46.5 O/U)

Patriots storyline to watch: The past two times the Patriots and Bills have played in Buffalo, the opening kickoff has been returned for a touchdown, which has never happened between the same teams at the same venue in back-to-back seasons. This will also be the coldest game for Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the teens. “I’m excited to wear long sleeves for the first time and embrace it,” he said. — Mike Reiss

Bills storyline to watch: The Bills’ offense has a chance to become the first team to score 30-plus points in nine straight games. The Patriots have given up 24.1 points per game this season (10th worst). New England’s biggest task will be slowing MVP candidate Josh Allen, who also can become the first quarterback in the past 90 years to record multiple rushing touchdowns in three consecutive games, per Elias Sports Bureau. — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Maye has a passing touchdown in six consecutive games entering Sunday. One more would tie Jim Plunkett (1971) for the longest streak by a rookie in franchise history.

Bold prediction: Bills edge Von Miller will record at least one sack. He has only one sack since returning from suspension in Week 9, but he actually boasts a 25% pass rush win rate at edge in that span, which is third best at the position. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Bills are in a fight with the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed. Buffalo’s chances increase to 25% with a win and fall to 3.6% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. On the other end, the Patriots’ odds at the No. 1 pick climb to 30% with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Patriots | Bills

Fantasy X factor: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. He has been targeted often by Allen, with seven or more targets in eight games and two with 10 or more. Shakir has scored 16 or more fantasy points in consecutive games. He should do well against the Patriots’ defense, especially from the slot. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots have been 14-point underdogs only one other time in the past 30 seasons — 2023 against the Bills, when they lost by six. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bills 33, Patriots 17
Moody’s pick: Bills 41, Patriots 13
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 82.5% (by an average of 13.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Mayo ‘didn’t mean anything’ with playcalling remark … Allen reaches new heights at QB, keeps Bills rolling

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4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LV -1.5 (40.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to watch: Jacksonville has really struggled preventing the big play. The Jaguars have given up a league-high 89 explosive plays (rushes of 15 or more yards and receptions of 30 or more yards). They’ve also given up 16 touchdowns on those plays, which is tied with Cleveland for the most. That’s a good matchup for the Raiders, who rank 22nd in the NFL with 44 offensive plays of 20 or more yards. — Michael DiRocco

Raiders storyline to watch: With only six catches in the Raiders’ past two games, Brock Bowers has fallen to fourth in the NFL with 90 receptions (he was leading the league two weeks ago). Despite the team’s quarterback issues, he needs 32 more yards to be the third rookie tight end to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in NFL history, joining Mike Ditka (1,076) and Kyle Pitts (1,026). He will face a Jaguars team that has the worst pass defense in the league (264.3 yards per game). — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: If the Raiders lose out in their final three games, they will tie their longest losing streak in franchise history (13 straight in 1962). After this week, they face the Saints and Chargers to end the season.

Bold prediction: The Jaguars’ offensive line will post its strongest pass block win rate of the season (75%). Going against the Raiders without Maxx Crosby (ankle) and Christian Wilkins (foot) should set up the unit for a smooth day and give quarterback Mac Jones plenty of time to make his reads. — Walder

What’s at stake: This matchup can drastically improve or hurt both teams’ chances at the No.1 pick (independent of other results). The Raiders’ odds at the selection increase to 30% with a loss and decrease to 2% with a win, per ESPN Analytics. The Jaguars’ chances climb to 11% with a loss and fall to less than 1% with a win. Read more.

Injuries: Jaguars | Raiders

Fantasy X factor: Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange. Evan Engram (shoulder) is out for the season, which means Strange takes over as Jacksonville’s starting tight end. He looked solid earlier this year when filling in for Engram. He now faces a Raiders defense that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Raiders are 0-1 outright as favorites this season (lost 36-22 to the Panthers in Week 3). They are 3-1 ATS as favorites under coach Antonio Pierce. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Jaguars 17, Raiders 15
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 21, Raiders 13
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 26, Raiders 19
FPI prediction: LV, 56.5% (by an average of 2.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Lawrence, Engram have shoulder surgery … Eerie mood looms over Raiders as Pierce’s job status is questioned

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4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -1 (44.5 O/U)

49ers storyline to watch: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is averaging 12 yards per reception this season, which is on pace for the third-lowest total of his career. Improving on that mark could prove difficult against a Niners defense that has been stingy with big plays in the second part of the season. Since Week 8, San Francisco has given up only 10 pass plays of 20-plus yards (fewest in the NFL) and is giving up 9.3 yards per reception (second lowest) in that span. — Nick Wagoner

Dolphins storyline to watch: With Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) doubtful to play Sunday, the 49ers are presented with a difficult matchup against one of the NFL’s top run defenses. The Dolphins have allowed only one of their past eight opponents to crack 100 rushing yards (the Packers in Week 13). In fact, Miami has given up an NFL-best 83.3 rushing yards per game since losing to Green Bay. San Francisco might have to rely more on quarterback Brock Purdy, whose breakout game came against the Dolphins in 2022. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has the fourth-most passing touchdowns (13) and third-most passing yards (1,704) in the NFL since returning from a concussion in Week 10.

Bold prediction: 49ers tight end George Kittle will record 5-plus catches for 90-plus receiving yards. No team gives up a higher percentage of opponent targets to tight ends than Miami at 23%. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Dolphins will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss after the Chargers’ Thursday night win. The 49ers will miss the postseason with a loss or be eliminated by seven other scenarios involving wins by other NFC teams. Read more.

Injuries: 49ers | Dolphins

Fantasy X factor: 49ers running back Patrick Taylor Jr. If Guerendo is out, the door opens for Taylor to lead the backfield. He scored nine fantasy points in Week 14 after Guerendo went down. The Dolphins have done well against quarterbacks, at least in fantasy, so this could be a game in which San Francisco leans on its ground attack. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Five straight Dolphins home games have gone over the total. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: 49ers 22, Dolphins 20
Moody’s pick: 49ers 24, Dolphins 21
Walder’s pick: 49ers 30, Dolphins 17
FPI prediction: SF, 54.4% (by an average of 1.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Source: 49ers RB Guerendo likely out against Dolphins … Dolphins’ DuBose to return home after hospital stay … Greenlaw’s return highlighted why the 49ers need to keep him

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: TB -4.5 (48.5 O/U)

Buccaneers storyline to watch: Considering what the Bucs did as an offense in a 40-17 victory over the Chargers, the timing on this couldn’t be better. The Bucs’ run game has dramatically improved from last in the league last season to now fourth overall (144.4 yards per game). The Cowboys are giving up 136.1 rushing yards per game (fourth worst in the league) and have surrendered 43 total touchdowns as a defense (third most in the league). — Jenna Laine

Cowboys storyline to watch: If the Cowboys lose, it would be their seventh loss of the season at AT&T Stadium, their most since 2015. They also have a chance to match the franchise record for most home losses in a season (0-8 in 1989). All of this has come after they won 16 straight regular-season games at home from 2022 to 2023. To avoid a loss, the defense will have to slow down the No. 4 scoring offense in the league (28.8 points per game). — Todd Archer

Stat to know: A loss for the Cowboys would clinch their first losing season since coach Mike McCarthy went 6-10 in his first year in 2020. They haven’t had multiple losing seasons under a single head coach since going 5-11 in three straight seasons from 2000 to 2002 with Dave Campo.

Bold prediction: Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean will give up no more than 40 receiving yards as the nearest defender, even though he’ll presumably see at least some of wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Since Week 10, Dean has given up just 0.7 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats — far better than the 1.2 average for outside corners. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Buccaneers’ chances to win the NFC South increase to 93% with a win and fall to 68% with a loss. The Cowboys would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a Washington win. Read more.

Injuries: Buccaneers | Cowboys

Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan. He had 36.5 fantasy points combined in his first eight games and then 40.4 in the past two. Interestingly, he and Mike Evans ran the same number of routes in that span, with Evans barely leading in targets. The Cowboys’ defense gives up the sixth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS as home underdogs this season. They are 1-6 outright and ATS overall at home. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 20
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 35, Cowboys 21
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 20, Buccaneers 19
FPI prediction: TB, 70.0% (by an average of 7.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rookies stepping up at right time for surging Buccaneers … What does the Cowboys’ 2025 salary cap really look like? … NFC South conundrum: Path to the playoffs, biggest hurdles

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Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: GB -14 (42.5 O/U)

Saints storyline to watch: The Saints have played only 18 games at 32 degrees or below at kickoff. They have won the past three, including a game against the Browns in 2022 when it was 6 degrees. But New Orleans doesn’t have Taysom Hill (knee), the leading rusher from that last win, and might not have Alvin Kamara, who is dealing with a groin injury. The Saints also could start rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler since Derek Carr has been out because of a fractured hand. — Katherine Terrell

Packers storyline to watch: It’s a small sample size, but Packers quarterback Jordan Love has shown no issues when it comes to playing in cold-weather games. He’s 2-0 as Green Bay’s starter when the temperature is 32 degrees or lower, which helps as it could be snowing Monday. When it comes to late-season contests overall, coach Matt LaFleur also has the best December/January record (23-5) in the NFL since 2019. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: The Packers are averaging 6.6 yards after catch per reception this season (third in the NFL). The Saints’ defense is giving up 6.2 yards after catch per reception this season (third highest in the NFL).

Bold prediction: Saints linebacker Demario Davis will lead the NFL in tackles in Week 16. The Saints are heavy underdogs to the Packers, which means Green Bay probably will be out in front and running the ball plenty. Davis has recorded a tackle on 21% of run plays he’s on the field for this season, which leads Saints linebackers. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Packers can secure their spot as the third NFC North team in the playoffs through multiple scenarios. The easiest path is by winning Sunday. Otherwise, Green Bay will need a Falcons loss to pair with either a loss by the Rams or the Seahawks. Read more.

Injuries: Saints | Packers

Fantasy X factor: Packers running back Josh Jacobs. Green Bay is a double-digit favorite, setting up Jacobs for a big workload. He has had 18-plus touches and 21-plus fantasy points in five straight games. The Saints’ defense gives up 23.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, making him a strong play this week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Saints have been double-digit underdogs one time in the past 19 seasons (plus-11.5 at Buccaneers in 2021, when they won 9-0). They have not been at least 13-point underdogs since 2005. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Packers 30, Saints 17
Moody’s pick: Packers 28, Saints 16
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Saints 10
FPI prediction: GB, 83.5% (by an average of 14.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Edwards-Helaire joins Saints after being cut by Chiefs … Cooper, Doubs key to Packers’ win over Seattle … Saints bench Haener, go back to Rattler in loss

Games played on Saturday

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: KC -3.5 (41.5 O/U)

Texans storyline to watch: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ranks 18th in completion percentage (45%) under pressure among starters, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, the Texans’ defensive line is third in pressure rate (38.2%) and second in sacks (45). If the Texans can force Mahomes — who is dealing with a high ankle sprain — into uncomfortable spots, Houston can position itself for an upset. — DJ Bien-Aime

Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs’ defense showed signs of life last week against the Browns with five sacks and an improved pressure rate (46%) when it didn’t blitz. The Texans have given up 46 sacks, fifth most in the league, so Kansas City has a reason to believe it can disrupt Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Chiefs have had 11 of their 32 total sacks come in the past three weeks. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2024 Chiefs are the second team in NFL history to play games on six different days of the week, joining the 1927 New York Yankees.

Bold prediction: Mahomes will post a Total QBR of under 50. There’s a good chance his scrambling will be limited as he deals with a high ankle injury, so defending Mahomes becomes quite a bit easier. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Chiefs can lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win and a Buffalo loss, becoming the sixth team since 2002 to clinch the top spot with at least two games left in the regular season. Five of the previous six teams reached the Super Bowl, though none won. Read more.

Injuries: Texans | Chiefs

Fantasy X factor: Texans wide receiver Nico Collins. Yes, the Chiefs’ defense is tough, but it is still vulnerable. Just look at the big games it has given up to Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Ladd McConkey and Jakobi Meyers. Collins has averaged 19.3 fantasy points this season. He has had only one game with fewer than 10 points. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Texans are 12-2 against the spread (ATS) in the first half of games this season, which is the best in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Texans 24, Chiefs 21
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 21, Texans 20
Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: KC, 57.4% (by an average of 2.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: How Texans OT Tunsil learned from draft-day nightmare … Chiefs to activate WR Brown vs. Texans barring any setbacks … Texans clinch AFC South for second straight year

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Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: BAL -6.5 (45.5 O/U)

Steelers storyline to watch: Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith compared the Steelers’ run game to an old truck earlier this week, saying that it might take some time to get it started, but it can put together some nice drives. In the two-game absence of wide receiver George Pickens, who could be out again this week, their offense became more one-dimensional and couldn’t run the ball effectively. To clinch the AFC North title against the league’s best rushing defense, the Steelers must establish the run early. — Brooke Pryor

Ravens storyline to watch: The Ravens can tie the Steelers atop the AFC North with a win, but they will need quarterback Lamar Jackson to break out of his slump against them. In losing four of his five starts against Pittsburgh, he recorded career lows in QBR (39) and completion rate (57%). The Steelers have pressured the two-time NFL MVP on 31% of his dropbacks and sacked him 22 times. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: For Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, the run of nine straight meetings decided by seven points or fewer is the longest such streak by two head coaches in NFL history (regular season or playoffs).

Bold prediction: The Ravens will have a win probability of over 90% at halftime. Despite their records, FPI views the Ravens as substantially better, and I’m inclined to believe the model. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Steelers have already made the playoffs and can clinch the AFC North title with a win, which would be their first division title since 2020. The Ravens can secure a postseason spot with a win or if the Colts and Dolphins both lose. Read more.

Injuries: Steelers | Ravens

Fantasy X factor: Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers. Since that monster 29.7-point performance against the Broncos in Week 9, Flowers has averaged just 10.3 fantasy points per game. He is still worth starting this week. The Steelers’ defense has struggled against outside receivers, as Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 25 and 28 points, respectively, last week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Steelers are 5-1 outright and ATS as underdogs this season. Last week was the first time the Steelers lost as underdogs this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 25
Moody’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 21
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 66.8% (by an average of 6.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Tomlin hopeful Watt will play against Ravens … QB Jackson’s five TDs vs. Giants sets another NFL mark

The Week 14 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 14 slate, including an NFC West battle between the Seahawks and Cardinals and Kirk Cousins’ return to Minnesota. It all ends with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Bengals and Cowboys on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
CLE-PIT | NYJ-MIA | ATL-MIN
NO-NYG | CAR-PHI | JAX-TEN
LV-TB | SEA-ARI | BUF-LAR
CHI-SF | LAC-KC | CIN-DAL

Thursday: DET 34, GB 31
Bye: BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NE, WSH

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: PIT -6.5 (43.5 O/U)

Browns storyline to watch: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett single-handedly wrecked the Steelers’ plans on offense in the team’s Week 12 matchup, a Browns win. Garrett recorded three first-half sacks and a forced fumble, which earned him Player of the Week honors. Pittsburgh is sure to have a better plan to limit Garrett, who is looking for a bounce-back game after registering a season-low pressure rate of 3.8% in the Browns’ Week 13 loss to the Broncos. — Daniel Oyefusi

Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers lead the league with 25 takeaways, including three in their first matchup against Cleveland. In that game, though, the Steelers managed only seven points off those takeaways. In his five games as the Browns’ starting quarterback, Jameis Winston has thrown 10 touchdowns to seven interceptions. The key to the Steelers avenging their Week 12 loss is capitalizing on those turnovers with more points. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: Cleveland hasn’t swept the regular-season series with Pittsburgh since 1988 and is looking to win three straight meetings for the first time since a seven-game run from 1986 to 1989.

Bold prediction: Steelers defensive tackle Keeanu Benton will record his first sack of the season. Benton’s 12% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranks ninth at the position. The fact he has zero sacks thus far is fluky. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Steelers have pretty much locked up a spot in the playoffs, with a 99.3% chance to make the postseason. But they have a 71% chance at winning the AFC North, with the Ravens lurking at 29%. Read more.

Injuries: Browns | Steelers

Fantasy X factor: Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. Pickens has been on fire, scoring 16-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games while averaging 7.6 targets. His rapport with quarterback Russell Wilson has been a catalyst for this statistical production, and now he faces a Browns defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to receivers. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Browns are 8-4-1 against the spread (ATS) as at least four-point underdogs under coach Kevin Stefanski. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Steelers 24, Browns 20
Moody’s pick: Steelers 24, Browns 10
Walder’s pick: Steelers 23, Browns 14
FPI prediction: PIT, 59.4% (by an average of 3.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jeudy’s Denver return ‘a lot of boos … catches’ … Steelers OLB Highsmith expected back Sunday … Browns perform noodle game celebration vs. Broncos

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TEN -3.5 (39.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to watch: With Trevor Lawrence on injured reserve (concussion/shoulder), quarterback Mac Jones now begins a five-game audition for a chance to compete for a potential starting job in 2025. It’s going to be tough: The Titans have the league’s top-ranked pass defense (allowing 171.8 yards per game). Jones struggled in his two starts this season, leading the Jaguars to a combined 13 points and 313 yards. — Michael DiRocco

Titans storyline to watch: The Titans’ run defense was gashed for 264 yards by the Commanders last week. It will be critical for Tennessee to bounce back against the Jaguars, who will be without Lawrence. “We’ve got to get back to stopping the run, populate the line of scrimmage and properly fit out gaps,” defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson said. “We can’t allow what happened last week to happen again. It’s time for us to bow up and show what we really can do against the run game.” — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: The Jaguars have nine straight road losses dating to last season, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.

Bold prediction: Titans kicker Nick Folk will go 4-for-4 on field goals, including two from 50-plus yards. He has quietly turned into one of the very best kickers in the NFL and is 11-of-12 from 50-plus yards the past two seasons. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Jaguars and Titans are both among the seven teams with the best odds at the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft, per ESPN’s FPI. Jacksonville is in third, currently holding a 20.7% chance at the top selection. Read more.

Injuries: Jaguars | Titans

Fantasy X factor: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Last week, the revenge game narrative worked out for Browns receiver Jerry Jeudy (40.5 fantasy points against the Broncos). Now, Ridley faces his former team, the Jaguars, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. He has seen eight or more targets in five of his past eight games. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their past six games. Jones is 3-14 ATS in his past 17 starts. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Titans 24, Jaguars 14
Moody’s pick: Titans 28, Jaguars 14
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 19, Titans 16
FPI prediction: TEN, 58.8% (by an average of 3.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why the Jaguars placed QB Lawrence on injured reserve … WR Burks to miss rest of season with knee injury

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -5.5 (44.5 O/U)

Jets storyline to watch: Aaron Rodgers & Co. still are looking for their first 30-point game. The last time the Jets went this far into the season without scoring 30 in a game was in 2020, when they finished 2-14 with no 30-point games. But history says it won’t happen this week. The offense has scored only three touchdowns in the past six trips to Miami. The Jets’ last 30-point performance in Miami was in 2014, which also was their last win in South Florida. — Rich Cimini

Dolphins storyline to watch: After last week’s loss to the Packers, the Dolphins probably need to win out to keep their remote playoff hopes alive. Luckily for them, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has never lost to the Jets. The Dolphins’ lone loss to New York since 2020 came in 2022 when Tagovailoa was injured. Sunday’s game could also be a bounce-back opportunity for a Miami run game that has averaged 63.3 yards per game over the past four weeks. The Jets’ defense has allowed more than 107.3 rushing yards per game in that same span. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: Rodgers now has 34 consecutive starts with fewer than 300 passing yards. No other quarterback has an active streak of at least 20 starts.

Bold prediction: A Dolphins wide receiver will catch a 40-plus-yard touchdown on a go route or deep fade. Miami has the lowest rate of throws of 20-plus air yards in the league this year, but the Jets run the single-high coverage 64% of the time (third most). The Dolphins could take a shot or two downfield against a struggling Sauce Gardner. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Dolphins’ chances at the playoffs will increase to 13.8% with a win and drop to 2.3% with a loss (independent of other results), per ESPN Analytics. The Jets would be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Jets | Dolphins

Fantasy X factor: Tagovailoa. The Jets’ defense has struggled, allowing 24-plus fantasy points to four quarterbacks since Week 6. Tagovailoa has scored 23-plus fantasy points in three straight games. He has the supporting cast and an offensive-minded head coach in Mike McDaniel to take full advantage of this matchup. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jets are 0-3 ATS as underdogs this season and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games as underdogs. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Dolphins 28, Jets 17
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
FPI prediction: MIA, 57.2% (by an average of 2.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rodgers: Hope to finish well, but not out to prove anything … Cold weather affected Dolphins, LB Brooks says

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (45.5 O/U)

Falcons storyline to watch: Quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off perhaps the worst three-game stretch of his 13-year career going into a road game against his former team. The pressure is certainly on given the Falcons’ three-game losing streak has cost them their once-commanding NFC South lead. Cousins has six interceptions in the past three games, and the Vikings lead the league in the category (18). — Marc Raimondi

Vikings storyline to watch: Quarterback Sam Darnold’s past three games have been his best of the season, with a combined 811 yards, seven total touchdowns and no interceptions. His performance will be on center stage Sunday as he is playing at a notably higher level than his predecessor, Cousins, and with a $10 million contract that is a fraction of the Falcons QB’s deal. Coach Kevin O’Connell says Darnold is playing with “almost a surgical level of ‘doing my job’ and not trying to do too much, but also knowing that ‘my job might be to try to put a ball in a tight window here and there.’” — Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: Cousins is the first quarterback with zero passing touchdowns and six interceptions in a six-game span since Cleveland’s Brian Hoyer in 2014.

Bold prediction: Darnold will throw for 300 yards and won’t be sacked. Minnesota has a major advantage in the trenches on offense as it ranks fifth in pass block win rate (68.1%). The Falcons rank 29th in pass rush win rate (32.9%). — Walder

What’s at stake: According to ESPN Analytics, the Falcons have the highest chance at the NFC’s fourth seed (30%), and the Vikings have the highest chance at the fifth seed (49%). Read more.

Injuries: Falcons | Vikings

Fantasy X factor: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Darnold faces a Falcons defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, which directly benefits Jefferson, who’s averaging 8.3 targets per game. Atlanta also gives up the third-most receptions to receivers. Expect a big day from Jefferson and Jordan Addison. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season (0-4 ATS in the past four). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Vikings 24, Falcons 21
Moody’s pick: Vikings 38, Falcons 27
Walder’s pick: Vikings 27, Falcons 26
FPI prediction: MIN, 62.8% (by an average of 4.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: What QB Cousins, Falcons need to do to regain playoff form … NFC North: Will Lions, Vikings or Packers win the division? … How new QB Jones affects Vikings, Darnold, McCarthy

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: NO -4 (40.5 O/U)

Saints storyline to watch: With Taysom Hill out for the season (torn ACL), the Saints are now without three offensive players who were responsible for 11 touchdowns: Hill, RB Rashid Shaheed (knee) and WR Chris Olave (concussion). That means they’ll likely continue to lean on receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kevin Austin Jr., two players the team has leaned on in the past three games under interim coach Darren Rizzi. The Saints are getting healthier in other ways, though, with running back Kendre Miller and wide receiver Bub Means returning to practice. — Katherine Terrell

Giants storyline to watch: The Giants are trying to snap a seven-game skid and will do so with Drew Lock starting at quarterback. Coach Brian Daboll said he’s going with Lock because he did some good things against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and they want to see what he can do with a full week of preparation. He’ll get a chance against New Orleans’ defense, which ranks 29th in passing yards per game (249.1). — Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: Saints quarterback Derek Carr has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio since returning in Week 9 from an oblique injury. That’s the most passing touchdowns without an interception by any quarterback in that span.

Bold prediction: Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. will average at least 5 yards per carry. This should be doable considering the Saints have the 31st-ranked run defense by EPA (minus-14.68). — Walder

What’s at stake: As it stands, the Giants have a 31% chance to earn the No. 1 draft pick in 2025, which is the highest by any team in the league, per ESPN Analytics. That figure will jump to 42% with a loss to the Saints and would fall to 10% with a win. Read more.

Injuries: Saints | Giants

Fantasy X factor: Saints tight end Juwan Johnson. New Orleans is running low on receiving playmakers. Last week, against the Rams, Johnson caught 5 of 7 targets for 36 yards. While the matchup against the Giants is difficult for tight ends, the targets should still be there. Johnson could be a solid pickup this week for managers scrambling for options in deeper formats. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Over the past three seasons, the Saints are 7-15 ATS as favorites. They are 0-1 outright in that role this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Saints 28, Giants 16
Moody’s pick: Saints 27, Giants 20
Walder’s pick: Saints 22, Giants 16
FPI prediction: NO, 64.5% (by an average of 5.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Torn ACL ends Saints TE Hill’s season … Giants’ Nabers on ‘drops’ comments, up-and-down rookie year

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -13 (45.5 O/U)

Panthers storyline to watch: The Eagles have NFL rushing leader Saquon Barkley, who is averaging 124.9 yards per game. The Panthers are allowing a league-worst 160.1 rushing yards per game, including 236 yards last week against Tampa Bay. That’s pretty much all you need to know, aside from the fact that Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is playing well, passing for 263-plus yards in each of the past two games. He has not had an interception in three straight games. — David Newton

Eagles storyline to watch: Philadelphia’s defense has been playing at an elite clip since its Week 5 bye. The Eagles are first in points allowed (13.4 per game), yards per play (4.1), sacks (30) and forced fumbles (15) from Week 6 on. They’ll face a Carolina offense that ranks 30th in both yards (292) and points per game (18.1). — Tim McManus

Stat to know: With a loss, Young would be the fourth quarterback since 2000 to lose 20 of his first 25 career starts, joining Blaine Gabbert (2011-13), Justin Fields (2021-22) and Trevor Lawrence (2021-22), who all started 5-20.

Bold prediction: Eagles linebacker Zack Baun will record 12-plus combined tackles. The Panthers have run the ball well lately, and I think they’re going to rely on the ground game because their receivers will struggle to get open against the Eagles’ secondary. Baun is recording a tackle on 17% of plays. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Panthers will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, marking their seventh straight season without a playoff appearance (the longest drought in franchise history). Read more.

Injuries: Panthers | Eagles

Fantasy X factor: Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown. Barkley is set to dominate because the Panthers give up the most fantasy points to running backs. But don’t forget about Brown, who is in a great spot against Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn. With the success DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans had against Horn recently, Brown has the potential to be a top receiver this week. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Both teams enter this game on four-game cover streaks, which are tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Panthers 24
Moody’s pick: Eagles 28, Panthers 16
Walder’s pick: Eagles 23, Panthers 10
FPI prediction: PHI, 85.7% (by an average of 16.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Bucs’ Mayfield thinks Panthers’ Young can ‘do anything he wants’ … Secret of the Eagles’ 2024 success? Defense has done a 180

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TB -6.5 (46.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to watch: Can Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers continue his record ascent against the NFL’s No. 30 pass defense (258.3 yards allowed per game)? Bowers, who has 27 catches and two touchdowns in his past three games combined, needs only three receptions against the Buccaneers to surpass Sam LaPorta’s year-old record for most catches by a rookie tight end in a single season. LaPorta caught 86 passes for the Lions in 2023. — Paul Gutierrez

Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Bucs are 2-0 since their bye week. A win combined with a Falcons loss would move them into sole possession of first place in the NFC South. Over the past two weeks, the Bucs have averaged 196.5 yards on the ground — fourth best in the league. But star rookie running back Bucky Irving is dealing with a hip pointer, and the Raiders are decent against the run (11th in the league, giving up 114.75 yards per game). — Jenna Laine

Stat to know: The Buccaneers had their third overtime game in 2024 against the Panthers last week (26-23 win). One more OT matchup would set a franchise record for a single season.

Bold prediction: Raiders defensive tackle Adam Butler will record at least four combined tackles, matching a season high. Butler currently has a 43% run stop win rate at defensive tackle, which ranks third highest at the position. — Walder

What’s at stake: Tampa Bay and Atlanta are tied for the best record in the NFC South, though the Falcons have the head-to-head advantage. Per ESPN’s FPI, the Buccaneers are still the narrow favorite in the division with a 50% chance at the title. The Falcons are at 49%. Read more.

Injuries: Raiders | Buccaneers

Fantasy X factor: Irving. He had a huge game last week, with 28 touches, 152 rushing yards and 27.5 fantasy points (all season-highs for this rookie class). Against a Raiders defense that allows 22.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, he’s a strong start this week. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell is 11-2 ATS in his career, which is the best mark of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era with at least 10 starts. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Raiders 24
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Raiders 20
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 26, Raiders 22
FPI prediction: TB, 57.4% (by an average of 2.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Could Deion Sanders be in the mix for the Raiders? … Rookie RB Irving explodes as Bucs rally for OT win vs. Panthers

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4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: ARI -2.5 (44.5 O/U)

Seahawks storyline to watch: Leonard Williams will look to continue his recent tear against the team it began against two weeks ago. The veteran defensive tackle recorded 2.5 sacks, three tackles for loss and a pass defensed in the Seahawks’ Week 12 win over Arizona, which he said should have earned him NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors. Williams got that after another dominant performance in Seattle’s win over the Jets, when he recorded two more sacks and three more tackles for loss, blocked a PAT and scored on a 92-yard pick-six, the longest by a defensive lineman in NFL history. Can the Cardinals block him in Sunday’s rematch? — Brady Henderson

Cardinals storyline to watch: The Cardinals’ red zone struggles have been magnified by losing their past two games. If they can improve on their 16.7% rate from Sunday and 38.5% clip over the past three games, they could avenge the loss to Seattle from two weeks ago. All week, the Cardinals have talked about execution being the main factor in their red zone struggles and how small changes could make the difference against the Seahawks. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray had a 15.0 QBR when pressured over the past two games after entering Week 12 with the best QBR (84.9) in the NFL when pressured.

Bold prediction: Williams will stay scorching hot with at least 1.5 more sacks. Both Cardinals guards, Evan Brown and Trystan Colon, have below average pass block win rates. — Walder

What’s at stake: According to ESPN Analytics, the winner of this game will become the favorite to win the NFC West, while the loser will have a 20% or less chance to win the division. Read more.

Injuries: Seahawks | Cardinals

Fantasy X factor: Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He scored 19-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games and saw 10-plus targets in two of them. With the Cardinals’ secondary struggling against slot receivers, he’s in an excellent position to deliver. He’s on the WR1 radar this week, so get him in your lineup for Week 14. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cardinals have covered three straight home games, and the Seahawks have covered three straight road games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 28, Seahawks 26
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 20
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 24
FPI prediction: ARI, 57.4% (by an average of 2.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Seattle looking to fix special teams quick amid NFC West race … Cardinals sign RB Conner to 2-year extension

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4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: BUF -3.5 (49.5 O/U)

Bills storyline to watch: The Bills are looking to extend a seven-game winning streak when they head out west. A win would tie the second-longest streak in franchise history. To do that, Buffalo’s run defense will be tested again facing Rams running back Kyren Williams, who has 24 straight games with at least 50 scrimmage yards, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. He also is coming off a 100-yard rushing performance. The Bills’ defense gave up the second-most yards post-contact per rush (3.00) last week in the snow. — Alaina Getzenberg

Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 77 Total QBR in his past three games is the second best in the NFL in that span, second only to Bills quarterback Josh Allen, according to ESPN Research. Stafford has eight passing touchdowns in his past three games, the second most in the NFL since Week 11. He hasn’t thrown an interception in those three games. — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: The Rams have back-to-back home losses (Dolphins in Week 10 and Eagles in Week 12). They’re looking to avoid matching their longest home losing streak since Sean McVay became coach in 2017.

Bold prediction: Bills backup running back Ray Davis will score a touchdown. It’s mostly just a gut feeling, but I expect the Bills to get out to a bit of a lead, and the Rams’ run defense ranks 28th in EPA (3.31). — Walder

What’s at stake: The Bills’ odds to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC improve to 53% with a win and fall to 26% with a loss (independent of other results), according to ESPN Analytics. The Rams’ chances at the NFC playoffs increase to 34% with a win and fall to 16% with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Bills | Rams

Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. Cook is positioned for another big game against a Rams defense that allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game to running backs (144.2). He scored 19-plus fantasy points in three of his past five games and should be busy as both a runner and receiver. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Rams are 3-9 ATS in the first quarter this season. Rams first-half unders are 9-3. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bills 34, Rams 28
Moody’s pick: Bills 34, Rams 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Rams 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 63.1% (by an average of 5.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: S Hyde re-signs with Bills, says he’ll retire after season … RB Williams sparks Rams’ offense against Saints

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4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: SF -4 (43.5 O/U)

Bears storyline to watch: Chicago looks to snap a six-game losing streak (tied for the Bears’ third longest in a season since 2000) in Thomas Brown’s first game as interim head coach after Matt Eberflus was fired on Nov. 29. Brown will move from the coaches booth to the sideline where he will continue to call offensive plays. Quarterback Caleb Williams has made significant strides with Brown as his playcaller, having thrown 232 consecutive passes without an interception, the longest streak by a rookie in NFL history. Williams is seeking his third straight game with multiple passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. — Courtney Cronin

49ers storyline to watch: The banged-up 49ers will be counting on rookie running back Isaac Guerendo to pick up the slack for injured backs Christian McCaffrey (knee) and Jordan Mason (ankle). Guerendo has flashed in small doses, averaging 5.9 yards on 42 attempts, the fourth-best mark of any running back with at least 40 carries. The Bears are yielding 4.9 yards per carry (29th in the NFL) and have given up 57 rushes of 10-plus yards (tied for sixth most), which means there should be some big-play opportunities for Guerendo in his first NFL start. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: The Bears are the first team since turnovers were first tracked in 1933 to lose six straight without committing multiple turnovers in any of those games.

Bold prediction: 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings will record 100-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. After two meager-ish weeks for Jennings (one of which was in the snow), I expect him to have another big day. ESPN’s receiver scores have him at third best among all wide receivers and tight ends. — Walder

What’s at stake: The 49ers enter with an 8% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics. That increases to 12% with a win and drops to 2% with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Bears | 49ers

Fantasy X factor: Guerendo. San Francisco is feeling the impact of losing McCaffrey and Mason to injured reserve. The 49ers will now turn to rookie Guerendo, who has been efficient with 0.78 fantasy points per touch. He’s stepping into a great matchup against a Bears defense allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry to running backs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 8-15 ATS in their past 23 games as road underdogs. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bears 28, 49ers 21
Moody’s pick: 49ers 28, Bears 21
Walder’s pick: 49ers 23, Bears 20
FPI prediction: SF, 61.5% (by an average of 4.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Inside the Bears’ firing of Matt Eberflus … 49ers RBs McCaffrey, Mason both headed to IR … Bears sticking with GM Ryan Poles; will lead search for coach

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: KC -4 (42.5 O/U)

Chargers storyline to watch: The Chargers are 3-18 against the Chiefs since 2014, including six straight losses. Quarterback Justin Herbert is 2-7 against the Chiefs in his career. The games typically come down to how well the Chargers’ offensive line protects Herbert. In the two wins, the Chiefs pressured Herbert on 26% of his dropbacks, while in losses, he was pressured on 36% of his dropbacks. — Kris Rhim

Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs had one of their better games of the season defensively against the Chargers in Week 4, when they held Herbert and the Los Angeles offense to 10 points and 220 yards. But can they repeat that kind of performance? The Chiefs have been a soft touch on defense for many of their recent opponents. They had two-touchdown leads over the Panthers two weeks ago and the Raiders last week and still had to scramble at the end for the victory. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: The Chiefs have won 14 consecutive games by one score or less, which is the longest streak in NFL history.

Bold prediction: Chargers defensive tackle Poona Ford will record at least half a sack against quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The buzz on Ford is deserved, as his 12% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranks seventh at the position. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Chiefs can clinch their ninth straight AFC West title with a win. Per ESPN Analytics, their odds to earn the No. 1 seed increase to 61% with a win and drop to 33% with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Chargers | Chiefs

Fantasy X factor: Herbert. Kansas City’s defense allows the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, so the Chargers might lean more on the passing game. He has thrived against the Chiefs in the past, averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game in his career. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their past six games. No team has ever gone on to win the Super Bowl in the same season it had a six-game ATS losing streak. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Chargers 30, Chiefs 28
Moody’s pick: Chargers 28, Chiefs 27
Walder’s pick: Chargers 21, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: KC, 61.6% (by an average of 4.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Would a win over Chiefs seal Chargers’ contender status? … Do Chiefs finally have right guy to protect Mahomes’ blindside?

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Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: CIN -5 (49.5 O/U)

Bengals storyline to watch: A ground attack could be the best approach for the Bengals against the Cowboys. Over the past four games, Dallas has been one of the worst teams in allowed yards per carry (5.4, 31st) while being great at defending the pass (tied for second with five interceptions and tied for first with 16 sacks). Leaning on running back Chase Brown could relieve the pressure on the passing game and help Cincinnati snap a three-game losing skid. — Ben Baby

Cowboys storyline to watch: Dallas will be looking for its first three-game winning streak of the season with a victory Monday to keep its faint playoff hopes alive. The Cowboys are 7-1 at home against the Bengals, their best home record against any opponent in franchise history. They have won five straight overall against Cincinnati, including two seasons ago when quarterback Cooper Rush led a final-minute drive to beat Joe Burrow. But this time, Burrow is the NFL’s leading passer and directs the sixth-highest-scoring offense (26.6 points per game). — Todd Archer

Stat to know: Although not as impressive as quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Roger Staubach, who won nine of their first 10 starts with the Cowboys, Rush’s 7-3 record is better than Troy Aikman (0-10) and Tony Romo (6-4).

Bold prediction: Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb will record his second game 100-plus receiving yards this season. He is getting open as usual — he has a strong 75 open score in ESPN’s receiver scores — but his catch score is a whopping zero. Even with Rush throwing to him, I’d expect that second number to come back to normal going forward. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Bengals hold a 2% chance to make the playoffs, while the Cowboys hold a 1% chance. Read more.

Injuries: Bengals | Cowboys

Fantasy X factor: Brown. He is on a roll with 20-plus touches and 19-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games. Now, he faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. He is set up for another big game because of his ability as a runner and receiver. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-1 ATS on the road this season. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS at home. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bengals 30, Cowboys 24
Moody’s pick: Bengals 35, Cowboys 26
Walder’s pick: Bengals 31, Cowboys 23
FPI prediction: CIN, 66.1% (by an average of 6.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Burrow reveals he bought $2.9 million Batmobile … Cowboys’ defense revitalized since Parsons’s return … Zac Taylor, Lou Anarumo shoulder blame amid Bengals’ skid

The Week 13 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full, post-Thanksgiving Week 13 slate, including a battle of the best running backs — the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley versus the Ravens’ Derrick Henry — and the 49ers’ visit to Buffalo. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Browns and the Broncos on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
LAC-ATL | PIT-CIN
ARI-MIN | IND-NE | SEA-NYJ
TEN-WSH | HOU-JAX | LAR-NO
TB-CAR | PHI-BAL | SF-BUF | CLE-DEN

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAC -2.5 (48.5 O/U)

Chargers storyline to watch: The Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert have struggled in the second half of games. He has the third-best QBR (74.7) in the first half this season, compared with 29th in the second (35.6). Los Angeles is averaging 8.4 points per game in the second half, which ranks 30th in the NFL. It scored only 10 points in the second half of the Monday night loss to the Ravens. — Kris Rhim

Falcons storyline to watch: Before Weeks 10 and 11, Kirk Cousins had never had two consecutive games without a touchdown pass since becoming an NFL starting quarterback 11 years ago. It won’t get easier for him. The Chargers have allowed the eighth-fewest touchdown passes this season (14) and the ninth-lowest pass EPA (minus-34.6). — Marc Raimondi

Stat to know: The Falcons have 10 sacks this season, their fewest through 11 games in history and the fewest by any team through 11 games since the 2018 Raiders.

Bold prediction: Chargers linebacker Daiyan Henley will record 10-plus combined tackles. Henley has played 100% of defensive snaps, and the Falcons rank 29th in pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Injuries: Chargers | Falcons

Fantasy X factor: Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey. He has scored 10 or more fantasy points in four of his past five games, including two contests with 18 or more points. The Falcons’ defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Atlanta has also struggled against slot receivers this season, giving McConkey an even higher ceiling. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons are 7-15 ATS in their past 22 games when the line is between plus-3 and minus-3. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Chargers 28, Falcons 21
Moody’s pick: Chargers 23, Falcons 21
Walder’s pick: Chargers 23, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: LAC, 51.2% (by an average of 0.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Falcons’ pass rush threatens promising season

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -3 (48.5 O/U)

Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers’ offense ranks 30th in red zone scoring percentage (44.7%), while the Bengals red zone defense is among the worst in the league, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on nearly 71% of trips. Before scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns against the Browns, Pittsburgh went seven quarters without a touchdown. Recognizing their shortcomings, the Steelers are emphasizing red zone offense — along with short-yardage situations — in practice ahead of facing a defense that has struggled in those areas. — Brooke Pryor

Bengals storyline to watch: Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow’s career-best season will be tested by one of the best pass defenses in the league. Pittsburgh leads the league in opposing QBR (51.2) because of its zone defense. Using primarily a Cover 3 look, the Steelers are second in zone QBR and have 10 interceptions in zone coverage, per ESPN Research. The Bengals’ offense ranks fourth in zone QBR (78.4). — Ben Baby

Stat to know: Burrow has three straight games with three or more passing touchdowns. That’s tied for the longest streak of his career and the longest by a Bengals quarterback since 1970.

Bold prediction: Steelers wide receiver George Pickens will bounce back with a 100-yard game. Pickens has been great this season, with a 79 open score, 10th best in the NFL. — Walder

Injuries: Steelers | Bengals

Fantasy X factor: Steelers running back Jaylen Warren. He has had 14 or more touches and scored 11-plus fantasy points in two of the past three games. Over that stretch, he was more efficient than Najee Harris, averaging an impressive 7.1 yards per touch. The Bengals’ defense? It has allowed 100-plus rushing yards or a rushing touchdown in every game this season. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Overs are 6-0 when the Bengals face teams with winning records this season. The Bengals are 0-6 outright (2-4 ATS) in those games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 22
Moody’s pick: Bengals 21, Steelers 17
Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 24
FPI prediction: CIN, 51.0% (by an average of 0.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Steelers still inconsistent about how they’re deploying Fields … Bengals bring back table tennis stations after bye week

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: MIN -3.5 (45.5 O/U)

Cardinals storyline to watch: The Cardinals are coming off a deflating loss to Seattle only to find themselves facing the best defense in the NFL. Kyler Murray has talked all season about his growth as a quarterback and having a better understanding of what defenses are trying to do to slow him down. There’s no better time than Sunday for Murray to show how smart he is in the pocket. A loss could send Arizona further down the NFC West standings, but a win would keep it near the top. — Josh Weinfuss

Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings have not lost to the Cardinals at home since 1977 and have won 11 consecutive games against them in Minnesota, including the postseason. As they look to extend that streak, their biggest challenge is containing Murray, who ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards by a quarterback (380). The Vikings’ defense allowed 33 rushing yards last week to the Bears’ Caleb Williams, but it ranks first in the NFL over the season in the fewest rushing yards (95) and the lowest average yards per rush (2.6) by quarterbacks. — Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has 14 turnovers this season, tied with Gardner Minshew for the most by any player in the NFL.

Bold prediction: Cardinals tight end Trey McBride will catch a touchdown pass. It’s finally going to happen! I really mean it! McBride has been excellent all season, averaging 2.5 yards per route run (second among tight ends) and just hasn’t found the end zone yet. But he will. — Walder

Injuries: Cardinals | Vikings

Fantasy X factor: Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s averaging only 6.0 targets and 11.3 fantasy points per game this season. Managers had WR1 hopes for him, but he’s looking more like a flex option right now. The good news? He faces a Vikings defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings have covered seven straight meetings. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Vikings 28, Cardinals 24
Moody’s pick: Vikings 24, Cardinals 16
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 24, Vikings 23
FPI prediction: MIN, 58.5% (by an average of 3.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cardinals remain playoff hopeful despite costly Seahawks loss … Vikings’ Sam Darnold delivers signature moment with OT win

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IND -2.5 (42.5 O/U)

Colts storyline to watch: Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has seen his production fall dramatically in recent weeks. The 2021 NFL rushing leader enjoyed a stretch of four 100-yard rushing performances in a span of six weeks earlier in the season. But he has struggled to get going in the past two games, averaging 46 yards and 2.6 yards per rush. Much of the issue traces back to an undermanned offensive line, which the Colts have been unable to mitigate. Said offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter: “Running the football, it’s a team or an offensive unit sort of thing. It’s all 11 of us.” — Stephen Holder

Patriots storyline to watch: Rookie quarterback Drake Maye’s 10 touchdown passes have gone to 10 different receivers, which ties the Broncos’ Steve Ramsey (1971-73) for the most consecutive touchdowns to a different receiver to start a career. But both the Patriots and Colts will be looking to clean up penalties; New England was flagged 13 times in last week’s loss to the Dolphins, while Indianapolis was flagged 12 times in its loss to the Lions. Colts coach Shane Steichen and Patriots coach Jerod Mayo both said the same thing — the high penalty total starts with them. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: Maye has thrown an interception in four straight games, the longest such streak among 2024 rookies.

Bold prediction: Colts cornerback Samuel Womack III will not allow a single reception. He has continued to put up strong numbers and opponents are targeting him just 12% of the time, seventh lowest among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Injuries: Colts | Patriots

Fantasy X factor: Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. He’s coming off one of his best games this season (15.6 fantasy points against the Lions). Now, he takes on a Patriots defense that gives up the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers. With Josh Downs week-to-week due to a shoulder injury, Pittman should see a heavy target share. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots are an NFL-worst 3-9 ATS in the first half. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Colts 19, Patriots 16
Moody’s pick: Patriots 22, Colts 20
Walder’s pick: Colts 17, Patriots 16
FPI prediction: IND, 61.4% (by an average of 4.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Colts in familiar position with long odds for playoffs … Patriots’ Peppers removed from commissioner exempt list

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: SEA -2 (42.5 O/U)

Seahawks storyline to watch: Geno Smith returns to MetLife Stadium to face the team that drafted him, but his star-crossed history with the Jets is not as important as his present situation with the Seahawks. He has had a solid season under tough circumstances, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards (3,035) but leading in interceptions (12). He is carrying an offense with no run game and a below-average offensive line. All that could add a layer of complexity to contract negotiations if and when the two sides discuss a new deal this offseason, something Smith wanted this past summer. — Brady Henderson

Jets storyline to watch: A healthy and rested quarterback Aaron Rodgers, coming off a bye week, begins what could be the final homestretch of his career. Rodgers, who said he’s undecided on whether he will play in 2025, hopes to finish his disappointing season on the upswing. One positive is that he has gone 139 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, covering four-plus games. — Rich Cimini

Stat to know: Last week, Smith was sacked five times for the third game this season. Only Deshaun Watson (4) and Will Levis (5) have more such games.

Bold prediction: Jets cornerback D.J. Reed will not allow more than 25 receiving yards as the nearest defender. Though cornerback Sauce Gardner hasn’t been at his usual level this season, Reed has still been solid, allowing a better-than-average 1.0 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The Seattle receivers present a challenge, but I think Reed is capable of a strong game against them. — Walder

Injuries: Seahawks | Jets

Fantasy X factor: Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Wilson has been quiet lately, with just 14 total targets and 14.9 total fantasy points over the past two games. But he’s in a great spot to bounce back after the bye. The Seahawks’ defense has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past month, giving Wilson a golden opportunity to shine. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their past six as a favorite. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Seahawks 24, Jets 17
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 23, Jets 20
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 20, Jets 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 53.6% (by an average of 1.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jets’ Jeff Ulbrich: Rodgers will ‘absolutely’ start vs. Seahawks

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: WSH -5.5 (44.5 O/U)

Titans storyline to watch: Titans quarterback Will Levis has a 68% completion percentage with 748 passing yards and five touchdown passes over the past three games. The second-year quarterback has also rediscovered his big-play ability, with eight explosive pass plays (at least 20 yards) over that span. He will look to maintain his steady improvement this week against Washington’s pass defense, which has allowed 189.1 passing yards per game (fourth best). — Turron Davenport

Commanders storyline to watch: The Commanders’ offense has sputtered the past two weeks despite a wild finish against Dallas (they averaged 3.9 yards per play until late in the game). During their three-game losing streak, they averaged 99.3 yards rushing and 4.0 yards per carry; Washington averaged 163.9 yards rushing per game and 5.0 yards per carry in going 7-2. Meanwhile, Tennessee has allowed just 3.0 yards per rush in its past three games (and 4.0 for the season). Maybe Washington can attack through the air, as the Titans have allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt since Week 10. — John Keim

Stat to know: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley is third in the NFL with 451 receiving yards since Week 8. He’s behind Courtland Sutton (467) and Puka Nacua (455).

Bold prediction: Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels will rebound with a 70-plus QBR game. He was just too good early in the season for me to ignore it, and the Titans’ defense is just OK. Tennessee ranks in the middle of the road in EPA allowed per dropback this year and is below average since Week 7. — Walder

Injuries: Titans | Commanders

Fantasy X factor: Titans running back Tony Pollard. He’s on pace for his third straight 1,000-yard rushing season and has been outstanding for Tennessee, especially since its bye week. He has logged 18 or more touches in five of his past seven games, scoring 10-plus fantasy points in five of them, including three games with 18 or more points. The Commanders’ defense has allowed 22.2 fantasy points per game to running backs this season, giving Pollard a high floor and strong potential for another big day. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are a league-worst 2-9 ATS. Last week’s win snapped a six-game ATS losing streak. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Commanders, 30, Titans 21
Moody’s pick: Commanders 28, Titans 20
Walder’s pick: Commanders 28, Titans 19
FPI prediction: WSH, 66.3% (by an average of 6.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Commanders put Seibert on IR after missed kicks … Inside the Commanders-Cowboys wild fourth quarter

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: HOU -5 (43.5 O/U)

Texans storyline to watch: The Texans have won 11 out of their past 13 games against the Jaguars. They defeated Jacksonville 24-20 in Week 4, with quarterback C.J. Stroud throwing for 345 yards with two touchdowns. In his three career games against the Jaguars, Stroud has thrown for 929 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. — DJ Bien-Aime

Jaguars storyline to watch: The Jaguars have scored fewer than 10 points in back-to-back games with backup quarterback Mac Jones, but there are encouraging signs that point to Trevor Lawrence (left shoulder) returning against the Texans. That should energize the offense and help the Jaguars avoid a dubious piece of franchise history: Failing to score double-digit points in three consecutive games. — Mike DiRocco

Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-6 in one-score games (eight points or fewer), which is tied with the Bengals for the most such losses in the NFL.

Bold prediction: Texans edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter will again combine for at least 3.0 sacks. Last week, they combined for 5.0 sacks and Hunter finished second in pass rush win rate (31.6%) at edge. — Walder

Injuries: Texans | Jaguars

Fantasy X factor: Texans wide receiver Tank Dell. He had seven or more targets and scored 10 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. Dell has a fantastic matchup against a Jaguars defense that gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Nico Collins should draw plenty of defensive attention, which could open things up even more for Dell. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their past five games and 3-0 ATS in their past three home games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Texans 28, Jaguars 20
Moody’s pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 24
Walder’s pick: Texans 30, Jaguars 13
FPI prediction: HOU, 64.4% (by an average of 5.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Stroud after Texans’ latest loss: Not playing up to standard … Jaguars’ offense still looking for answers amid 17-game skid

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4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: LAR -2.5 (49.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to watch: Through 12 weeks, Rams outside linebacker Jared Verse leads the rookie class with 51 pressures. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he has taken 66.3% of his snaps from the right edge, which projects a matchup against the Saints’ Taliese Fuaga. The Saints left tackle is having the opposite start to Verse, with the lowest pressure rate allowed by any rookie this season (7.4%). — Sarah Barshop

Saints storyline to watch: The Saints are getting healthy again after their bye — defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon returned to practice for the first time this season after tearing his Achilles in the offseason. The biggest health question now is center Erik McCoy, who left their last game with a groin injury after playing for the first time since surgery in September. Saints coach Darren Rizzi said McCoy is considered day-by-day to play at this point. — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: The Rams’ Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are the only wide receiver teammates to have 400 receiving yards each game since Week 8, when they both returned to the lineup after injuries.

Bold prediction: Saints cornerback Alontae Taylor will allow more than 100 receiving yards as the nearest defender. He is allowing a massive 2.1 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and he’ll likely struggle against the Rams’ top receivers. — Walder

Injuries: Rams | Saints

Fantasy X factor: The Saints have been relying heavily on running back Alvin Kamara, who is averaging 21.6 touches and 111.4 total yards per game. Kamara is set up for another busy day against the Rams. Los Angeles has struggled against running backs, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards and 11th-most receiving yards per game. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Rams are 5-1 ATS as road favorites since 2022. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Saints 21, Rams 18
Moody’s pick: Saints 24, Rams 20
Walder’s pick: Rams 24, Saints 16
FPI prediction: NO, 51.6% (by an average of 0.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rams aren’t playing like a top contender in the NFC … Saints’ Hill has milestone day with 230 all-purpose yards

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4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: TB -5.5 (46.5 O/U)

Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Bucs snapped a four-game losing streak with a post-bye-week win over the Giants to gain ground in their playoff push. Wide receiver Mike Evans’ and cornerback Jamel Dean’s returns were impactful, as was the presence of safety Mike Edwards. And of course, quarterback Baker Mayfield continues to have possibly the best season of his career. But their biggest advantage Sunday will be the ground game. The Panthers’ defense allows a league-worst 160.6 rushing yards per game, while the Bucs’ 128.1 rushing yards per game is 10th in the league after they ranked last in 2023. — Jenna Laine

Panthers storyline to watch: Quarterback Bryce Young is coming off his best game and a three-game streak of solid play where the Panthers are 2-1. The defense is improving, collecting a season-high five sacks against the Chiefs on Sunday. However, Carolina still struggles to keep teams out of the end zone, allowing an NFL-worst 30.9 points a game. And the Buccaneers can be explosive, as they rank seventh in passing yards per game (241.5). Carolina’s secondary remains vulnerable. — David Newton

Stat to know: Against the Giants, the Buccaneers had four players score a rushing touchdown for the first time in franchise history.

Bold prediction: The Panthers will record their highest pass block win rate of the season. After winning a season-high 61.5% of pass blocks last week, I think they can set a better mark against a Buccaneers team that doesn’t scare you too much with its pass rush. — Walder

Injuries: Buccaneers | Panthers

Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton. Tampa Bay’s running game led the way in its Week 12 win, but Otton should stay heavily involved in the passing game behind Evans. Before their Week 11 bye, Otton scored 18 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. Now, he gets a Panthers defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered three straight home games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 35, Panthers 28
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: TB, 68.7% (by an average of 7.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Bucs came back ‘mentally tougher,’ ‘ready to play’ after bye … Panthers coach: Young will ‘absolutely’ start vs. Bucs

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4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (51.5 O/U)

Eagles storyline to watch: Running back Saquon Barkley has been on a tear. He’s coming off a career-best performance in which he set single-game career highs in rushing yards (255) and yards from scrimmage (302) against the Rams. With the performance, Barkley (1,392 rushing yards) took the lead over Derrick Henry (1,325) in the race for the rushing crown. This will be a smash-mouth matchup featuring the top two ground games in the NFL. — Tim McManus

Ravens storyline to watch: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a 23-1 record against NFC opponents, which is the best by any quarterback in interconference games since the 1970 merger (minimum 15 starts). But he is facing perhaps his biggest challenge with the Eagles, who have won seven straight games. During its win streak, Philadelphia has held quarterbacks to 140.2 passing yards per game and 5.4 yards per pass attempt, both of which are the fewest in the NFL over that span. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: This will be just the second instance since 1970 of two teams meeting in Week 13 or later who are averaging 180 rushing yards per game.

Bold prediction: The Eagles will hold Jackson to a QBR of under 55. Even if cornerback Darius Slay Jr. (concussion) isn’t able to play, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean should be able to hamper receivers Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers. — Walder

Injuries: Eagles | Ravens

Fantasy X factor: Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert finished with only 5.9 fantasy points last week, as the Eagles didn’t need to pass thanks to Barkley’s 46.2-point performance. That should change against the Ravens in a high-scoring matchup. Baltimore’s defense allows the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Ravens overs are 10-2, the highest over percentage in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Eagles 30, Ravens 28
Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Ravens 26
Walder’s pick: Eagles 28, Ravens 24
FPI prediction: BAL, 58.4% (by an average of 2.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Barkley runs for Eagles-record 255 yards in win vs. Rams … Ravens topple Chargers in Harbaugh brothers reunion

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BUF -7 (44.5 O/U)

49ers storyline to watch: The 49ers haven’t lost three games in a row all season, but they enter this one in peril of doing just that and essentially putting any postseason hopes to rest. The Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win, and they’ve won all five home games this season while scoring 30-plus points in each contest. San Francisco is still banged up and will be traveling across the country after another lengthy flight to Green Bay last week, making this perhaps its most difficult challenge. — Nick Wagoner

Bills storyline to watch: Bills quarterback Josh Allen — a Firebaugh, California, native — will play the team he grew up cheering for. He will have a chance to continue to improve his candidacy for MVP in prime time against a 49ers defense that has forced only one turnover in the past three games and is tied for 20th in points allowed per game (23.6). — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The 49ers had 18 penalties in their past two games (both losses), which is tied for their most penalties in a two-game span over the past five seasons.

Bold prediction: The Bills will hold running back Christian McCaffrey to fewer than four receptions. No team allows a lower percentage of targets (25%) to opposing running backs than the Bills. — Walder

Injuries: 49ers | Bills

Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. Buffalo should rely heavily on its offensive line and running game due to potentially snowy weather, which bodes well for Cook. He scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of their past four games and had 15 or more touches in three of those matchups. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: This is the second straight game the 49ers have been underdogs after being favored in 36 straight regular-season games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bills 34, 49ers 21
Moody’s pick: Bills 30, 49ers 23
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, 49ers 26
FPI prediction: BUF, 61.3% (by an average of 4.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: The 49ers’ road to the playoffs is murky: Is Sunday a must-win? … Bills’ quest for AFC East crown, No. 1 seed continues

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Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: DEN -5.5 (41.5 O/U)

Browns storyline to watch: Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy returns to face the Broncos, who drafted him No. 15 overall in the 2020 draft, for the first time since Denver traded him to Cleveland in March after four inconsistent seasons. It was a trade Jeudy told ESPN he desired, and he has flourished over the past month, ranking 10th in receiving yards (379) since Week 8. However, Jeudy has a tough test against Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II, who has allowed 182 yards as the nearest defender, the second-fewest among cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps. — Daniel Oyefusi

Broncos storyline to watch: Broncos coach Sean Payton will have to scheme to protect rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is 18-7-1 against rookie QBs as a coordinator or head coach. His defense is fifth in the league in dropbacks that result in sacks at 8.8%. Payton has tried to up the tempo to halt opposing rushers, but he might have to run the ball more to give the Cleveland defensive front a reason to slow down on its way to the quarterback. In the win over Las Vegas last week, when the Raiders blitzed more than Payton expected, the Broncos ran just 16 times. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: The Browns have an NFL-worst 27% third-down conversion rate, which is their worst through 11 games since 1999 (25%).

Bold prediction: The Broncos will sack Jameis Winston six or more times. Winston’s 7% sack rate isn’t too bad, but the Broncos have the third-best pass rush win rate (47.6%) in the NFL, with defensive end Zach Allen leading the way. — Walder

Injuries: Browns | Broncos

Fantasy X factor: Nix. The rookie is shining under coach Payton’s guidance, and it shows. Nix has scored 19 or more fantasy points in five of his past eight games, including two games with more than 28 points. This week, he faces a Browns defense that has given up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That’s great news for Nix and his top target, Courtland Sutton. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Browns are 2-7 ATS in their past nine “Monday Night Football” games (1-3 ATS under coach Kevin Stefanski). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Broncos 28, Browns 24
Moody’s pick: Broncos 21, Browns 16
Walder’s pick: Broncos 23, Browns 17
FPI prediction: DEN, 51.8% (by an average of 0.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Breaking down the 2024 Browns roster … Sutton, Nix growing together for surging Broncos

Friday’s matchup

Friday, 3 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: KC -12 (42.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to watch: Quarterback Aidan O’Connell, coming off injured reserve after suffering a broken thumb on his throwing (right) hand in Week 7, will start against the Chiefs. “It’s felt pretty good the last few days throwing … to be able to go out there and grip the football and throw a little bit has been awesome,” he said Tuesday. O’Connell is the last quarterback to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City, even though he didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter of that 2023 Christmas Day game. — Paul Gutierrez

Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs have faltered defensively after a strong start this season. Since Week 8, they rank last in opponent QBR (81.6) and preventing third-down conversions (58.6%). Are the Raiders strong enough offensively to take advantage without starting quarterback Gardner Minshew, who is out with a broken collarbone? The last time the Raiders lost by only one score was a 27-20 game against the Chiefs in Week 8. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: The Chiefs have a 58% chance to be the top seed in the AFC, per ESPN Analytics. Their chances would improve to 64% with a win and fall to 38% with a loss.

Bold prediction: Raiders tight end Brock Bowers will record 100-plus receiving yards. Bowers is in the mix for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and 21% of Kansas City opponents’ targets go to tight ends, the third-highest rate in the league. — Walder

Injuries: Raiders | Chiefs

Fantasy X factor: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He scored 28.7 fantasy points against the Panthers last week, his best performance of the season. He put up 18.1 fantasy points the last time he faced Las Vegas on the road. At home, he has averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game against the Raiders as a starter. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-5 against the spread in their past five games, tied for their longest ATS losing streak in the coach Andy Reid era. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 24, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 34, Raiders 13
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 20
FPI prediction: KC, 76.3% (by an average of 11.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: What are the Raiders’ chances at the No. 1 draft pick? … Chiefs want to keep things simple for new LT Humphries

The Week 12 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 12 slate, including quarterback Tommy Devito’s first start of the season against the Bucs and the Cardinals facing the Seahawks in a key NFC West matchup. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Ravens and the Chargers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
MIN-CHI | DET-IND | NE-MIA
TB-NYG | DAL-WSH | KC-CAR
TEN-HOU | DEN-LV | SF-GB
ARI-SEA | PHI-LAR | BAL-LAC

Thursday: CLE 24, PIT 19
Byes: ATL, BUF, CIN, NO, NYJ, JAX

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: MIN -3.5 (39.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings are 8-4 on grass surfaces under coach Kevin O’Connell since the start of the 2022 season, including 2-0 at Soldier Field. That’s a decided departure from the franchise’s history after it moved indoors to the Metrodome in 1982 and later U.S. Bank Stadium in 2016. During those four decades, the team had a .402 winning percentage on grass and .586 on artificial surfaces. — Kevin Seifert

Bears storyline to watch: The Bears are in the midst of a four-game losing streak with the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. After switching offensive coordinators from Shane Waldron to Thomas Brown last week, Chicago notched its highest point total since Week 6 in a 20-19 loss to Green Bay. The Bears are averaging 11.5 points per game during this losing streak, which is the fewest points per game in the NFL in that span (since Week 8). Coach Matt Eberflus’ 2-11 record against NFC North opponents is the worst in the league since he was hired in 2022. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has had multiple turnovers in four games this season. Minnesota is undefeated in those contests.

Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will throw at least two interceptions. He played better last week, but I certainly don’t fancy his chances against the unorthodox and very successful Vikings defense. — Walder

Injuries: Vikings | Bears

Fantasy X factor: Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze. The rest of the season seems bright for Odunze. In Week 11, he saw seven-plus targets for the third time this season. He also led the Bears in targets ahead of DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Now, he faces a Vikings defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings have won and covered four straight meetings in Chicago. The past five meetings in Chicago all went under the total. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Vikings 28, Bears 25
Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Bears 14
Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Bears 16
FPI prediction: MIN, 57.0% (by an average of 3.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: How legit are the 8-2 Vikings? You might be surprised … How will OC change affect Bears QB Williams? … Bears’ Matt Eberflus defends decision to run clock before kick

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -7 (49.5 O/U)

Lions storyline to watch: Despite being the favorites to win this week, the Lions aren’t taking this game against the Colts lightly. Detroit is riding an eight-game winning streak and is the NFL’s lone team with a perfect road record (5-0), but coach Dan Campbell isn’t allowing his squad to buy into the hype. “We’re not the underdogs, but we have certain standards of the way we approach things, the way that we prepare for games, and as long as we do that, you will continue to be a tough team to beat, and that’s important,” Campbell said Monday. — Eric Woodyard

Colts storyline to watch: One strategy for beating a team with a high-powered offense like the Lions is to win the time-of-possession battle, thereby limiting the opponent’s possessions. But the Colts haven’t proven they can do this. The Colts rank 31st in time of possession at 26:40 per game. That has been detrimental for their defense because the unit has played too many snaps. Indianapolis is second in the league in defensive snaps, averaging 66.9 per game. — Stephen Holder

Stat to know: The Lions have four games this season with more touchdowns than incompletions. That’s the most such games in a season by any team since 1933.

Bold prediction: The two teams will have more combined play-action snaps than any game this season (current high is 32). The Lions and Colts rank first and third in play-action rate, respectively. — Walder

Injuries: Lions | Colts

Fantasy X factor: Colts wide receiver Josh Downs. He had a standout performance in Week 11, catching all five of his targets from quarterback Anthony Richardson for 19.4 fantasy points. Downs now faces a Lions secondary that’s struggling, allowing the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. With that in mind, Downs could be in for another huge performance. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Colts have not closed as seven-point home underdogs since 2017 (plus-11 versus the Steelers). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Lions 40, Colts 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 37, Colts 20
Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Colts 21
FPI prediction: DET, 73.4% (by an average of 9.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Goff: Lions striving for ‘perfection’ on offense … QB Richardson’s running is key for Colts … Lions lose LB Anzalone for 6-8 weeks … Paye’s heroics keep Colts in the running in AFC South

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7.5 (46.5 O/U)

Patriots storyline to watch: The Patriots’ defense has forced only one turnover in its past five games. New England’s minus-6 turnover differential is tied for 26th in the NFL, and finding a way to disrupt quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the rhythm of the Dolphins’ passing game will be key. The Dolphins (minus-2 on the season) are coming off a turnover-free game in a win over the Raiders. — Mike Reiss

Dolphins storyline to watch: Sunday’s matchup will feature two of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL over the past month. Since Week 6, Patriots signal-caller Drake Maye owns the lowest off-target throw percentage in the league at 9.2%; right behind him is Tagovailoa at 9.4%. Both players are also completing passes at a higher rate than expected, as both Tagovailoa (4.9%) and Maye (3%) rank in the top 10 in completion percentage over expectation. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Dolphins have a 14.6% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. Those chances increase to 18.9% with a win and drop to 5.9% with a loss.

Bold prediction: Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill will catch a pass of at least 30 air yards. The Dolphins face more two-high coverage than any other team, presumably in part to stop Hill. But the Patriots run two-high coverage only 39% of the time, which is below league average. — Walder

Injuries: Patriots | Dolphins

Fantasy X factor: Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. He has been on a roll with 20-plus touches in three of his past four games, topping 20 fantasy points in two of them. This week, he faces a Dolphins defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. Miami’s defensive front ranks 24th in run stop win rate (29.5%). Stevenson’s volume and this matchup make him a strong play. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots won the game outright in their past two appearances as at least six-point underdogs (Weeks 8 and 10 versus the Jets and at the Bears, respectively). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Patriots 22, Dolphins 20
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 28, Patriots 21
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20
FPI prediction: MIA, 68.0% (by an average of 6.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Through six starts, Pats QB Maye continues to impress … How Miami’s offense transitioned from explosive to consistent … Hill: Wrist surgery ‘brought up’ but I’m playing through it

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TB -6 (41.5 O/U)

Buccaneers storyline to watch: Bucs center Graham Barton couldn’t have put it any better: “The playoffs for us really start now.” Coming off their bye week at 4-6, having lost four straight, the Bucs are in a similar predicament as they were last season. They were able to win five out of their final six games. Barring any setbacks, wide receiver Mike Evans and cornerback Jamel Dean should return, and that should give them a boost, while the statuses of Tristan Wirfs (MCL sprain) and Zyon McCollum (hamstring) are up in the air. — Jenna Laine

Giants storyline to watch: Tommy DeVito is the Giants’ new starting quarterback in place of Daniel Jones. DeVito will be trying to rediscover the magic from last season, when he won three straight games as an undrafted free agent. He threw eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions as a rookie. But DeVito also finished with a total QBR of 26.9 as a starter, which was the worst of any qualifying quarterback from Weeks 10 to 16. He’ll have his work cut out for him after not having any reps with the first-team offense this summer and season. — Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: The Buccaneers are one of three teams in the Super Bowl era to average at least 27.9 points and be under .500. The other two teams (2016 Saints and 2016 Chargers) didn’t make the playoffs.

Bold prediction: Buccaneers edge rusher Yaya Diaby will record a sack. He should get some pass rushes against Evan Neal, the 2022 first-round pick who has struggled to see the field this season. DeVito recorded a 15.6% sack rate last season. — Walder

Injuries: Buccaneers | Giants

Fantasy X factor: Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. He could be key for the Giants with DeVito now under center. Since taking over as the lead back in Week 5, Tracy has scored 14-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games. Facing a Buccaneers defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs, Tracy is set up for another strong performance. Expect New York to lean on him heavily. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: DeVito is 3-3 outright in his career despite being at least a 4.5-point underdog in each game. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Giants 14
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Giants 17
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 26, Giants 10
FPI prediction: TB, 68.9% (by an average of 7.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: With easiest remaining schedule, can Bucs make a playoff push? … New Giants starter DeVito trying to avoid ‘fun and games’ … Is Bucs WR Evans’ 1,000-yard streak in jeopardy? … Giants bench QB Jones — what now?

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: WSH -10 (45.5 O/U)

Cowboys storyline to watch: At 3-7, the Cowboys are looking to avoid their first six-game losing streak since 2015, when they finished 4-12. To do so, they will have to beat their former defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, and several former teammates (Tyler Biadasz, Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr. among them) who joined the Commanders in the offseason. The Cowboys have beaten Washington in five of the past six meetings but bring a different team that will be without at least four opening-day starters because of injuries, though Pro Bowl cornerback DaRon Bland (foot) is expected to make his season debut. — Todd Archer

Commanders storyline to watch: The Commanders need to get their run game untracked after two lackluster showings against stout run defenses in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. If they do so, it unlocks their offense. In Washington’s seven wins, it has averaged 5.2 yards per carry, but in the four losses it’s 3.5. It’s not just about Brian Robinson Jr., who averages 4.7 yards per rush in wins, it’s also about the quarterback runs. In the seven wins, Jayden Daniels has rushed for 5.3 yards per carry. The good news for Washington: Dallas ranks 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.7). — John Keim

Stat to know: Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb has 106 targets this season, which is tied with Garrett Wilson for most in the NFL. But he has had only one game with 100-plus receiving yards after eight such games in 2023.

Bold prediction: The Commanders — including their running backs and Daniels — will combine to rush for 200 yards in a win over the Cowboys. Washington ranks first in run block win rate (74.7%), and the Cowboys rank 30th in run stop win rate (26.9%). — Walder

Injuries: Cowboys | Commanders

Fantasy X factor: Robinson. He logged 17 touches and 14.2 fantasy points against the Eagles in Week 11. Just last week, Dallas allowed the Texans’ Joe Mixon to go off for 35.3 fantasy points. Robinson is in a great spot to deliver for fantasy managers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their past five games. It’s their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight straight). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Commanders 40, Cowboys 17
Moody’s pick: Commanders 34, Cowboys 16
Walder’s pick: Commanders 37, Cowboys 13
FPI prediction: WSH, 78.3% (by an average of 11.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: The Cowboys’ tough transition from Quinn to Zimmer as DC … What’s happened to the Commanders’ offense? … How Dan Quinn reinvented himself and has Commanders contending

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: KC -10.5 (45.5 O/U)

Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs have played excellent run defense all season and are third in yards allowed per carry (3.6) and per game (85.3). But they get a difficult test against the Panthers’ Chuba Hubbard, who has three 100-yard games and a healthy 5.1 yard-per carry average this season. Can the Panthers shorten the game by successfully running on the Chiefs? — Adam Teicher

Panthers storyline to watch: The Panthers are getting healthy defensively, particularly with the addition of outside linebacker D.J. Wonnum, who adds a new dimension to their much-needed pass rush. A strong running game has kept Carolina close enough to win its past two games with Bryce Young at quarterback, but the Chiefs have the third-best run defense in the NFL. This might force Young to make more plays. Young has led the Panthers to two straight wins, throwing for 297 yards and one touchdown. — David Newton

Stat to know: Another win for the Panthers would tie their longest win streak over past five seasons. They won two straight before their bye.

Bold prediction: Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco will, if he plays, average over 5.5 yards per carry. The Panthers rank 28th in EPA allowed per designed carry, so it should be a nice soft landing for the running back potentially returning from injury. — Walder

Injuries: Chiefs | Panthers

Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. Kansas City might ease Pacheco back in his return from injury. That sets the stage for Hunt against a Panthers defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Hunt has had 20-plus touches in four of his past five games and scored 17 or more fantasy points in three of them. This could be his last big game before Pacheco takes over. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered in back-to-back games after starting the season 1-7 ATS. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 34, Panthers 17
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 31, Panthers 16
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 27, Panthers 13
FPI prediction: KC, 77.0% (by an average of 11.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: What’s gone right and wrong for playcaller Andy Reid so far? … With recent success, Panthers’ Young finally having fun

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: HOU -7.5 (40.5 O/U)

Titans storyline to watch: Texans defensive lineman Denico Autry faces his former team for the first time this week. After posting three sacks in five games, Autry, an 11-year veteran, will face Titans right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere, who has allowed six sacks. This matchup is a huge advantage for Houston, especially in third-and-long situations. “It’s almost miraculous he can still do it at his age the way he does it as a physical edge setter that can rush,” coach Brian Callahan said. — Turron Davenport

Texans storyline to watch: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has averaged 259 passing yards per game in his career, but the Titans are allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the league this season (164.6), so two strengths will collide. Texans coach DeMeco Ryans pointed out how the Titans’ third-down defense does “a really good job of playing tight coverage.” Tennessee has allowed the third-lowest conversion rate (32.5%) on defense, so if the Texans want to get Stroud going, winning on the key downs is important. — DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know: The Titans have a 14% chance for No. 1 pick in 2025 NFL draft, per ESPN Analytics. Their chances improve to 19% with a loss and fall to 5% with a win.

Bold prediction: Texans wide receiver Nico Collins will catch a 50-plus-yard touchdown. The Titans allow an average depth of target of 10.5 yards downfield, so I’d expect some deep shots to Collins. — Walder

Injuries: Titans | Texans

Fantasy X factor: Texans D/ST. Houston’s defensive front is elite, ranking second in run stop win rate (34.7%) and first in pass rush win rate (50.2%). It’s also tough on running backs, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game. That might force Tennessee to lean on quarterback Will Levis and the passing game — a risky move with an offensive line that ranks 28th in pass block win rate (52.3%). See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are the third team since 2000 to start 1-9 or worse ATS (2012 Eagles and 2007 Ravens). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Texans 28, Titans 14
Moody’s pick: Texans 23, Titans 16
Walder’s pick: Texans 27, Titans 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 71.1% (by an average of 8.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Titans back coach Brian Callahan despite losing ways … Stingley taking on task of covering top WRs

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4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DEN -6 (41.5 O/U)

Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos are 0-4 in Las Vegas since the Raiders made the move to the desert. To end the trend, it might come down to how well the Broncos’ offense closes the deal in the red zone. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is coming off the best game of his young career (307 yards, 4 TDs, 84.8% completion percentage) in the win over the Falcons. The Broncos are 5-of-15 in red zone trips in their five losses as compared to 16-of-21 in their six wins. The Raiders have allowed offenses to score touchdowns on at least 75% of their red zone trips in four of the past six games. If the Broncos can show some efficiency on offense and avoid the turnovers that have plagued them in past losses in Las Vegas they should end their Nevada losing streak. — Jeff Legwold

Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders already have the worst-ranked running game (75.2 yards per game) in the NFL, and their top two running backs — Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quad) — missed practice Wednesday. So Raider Nation turns its eyes to 10th-year vet Ameer Abdullah, who has rushed for 82 yards and a TD on 17 carries this season; rookie Dylan Laube, who has one carry, no yards and a lost fumble, and Sincere McCormick, who is on the practice squad and has appeared in one game in his career. Oh, and Denver boasts the sixth-best run defense in the league. “I’m ready,” said Abdullah, who rushed for 42 yards, his highest total since 2017, and a TD on five carries at Denver in Week 5. — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: The Raiders have lost seven straight to rookie starting quarterbacks since 2020. That’s the longest active streak in the NFL.

Bold prediction: The Raiders will not target Pat Surtain II at all. The Broncos’ star cornerback has just a 9.5% target rate this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is second lowest among outside corners. And the Raiders don’t have a receiver good enough to force the ball to. — Walder

Injuries: Broncos | Raiders

Fantasy X factor: Nix. He is in complete control of Denver’s offense, and he’s set up for another big game against a Raiders defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With wide receiver Courtland Sutton as a key target, expect the passing game to thrive. Nix has been on fire, scoring 16 or more fantasy points in seven straight games, including three with more than 23 points. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as favorites this season, and they’ve covered five straight games in that role. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Broncos 28, Raiders 20
Moody’s pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 10
Walder’s pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 13
FPI prediction: DEN, 56.2% (by an average of 2.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Broncos building young core amid salary cap constraints … Bowers central to Raiders’ new offense … How rookie Nix is keeping Broncos in playoff hunt

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4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: GB -2 (47.5 O/U)

49ers storyline to watch: The 49ers are still banged up, but their chances of slowing down Packers quarterback Jordan Love & Co. took a big hit this week with defensive end Nick Bosa ruled out with left hip and oblique injuries. San Francisco simply doesn’t have a reliable pass rush when Bosa isn’t on the field. With Bosa on the field, the Niners have a 33% pressure rate and 8% sack rate. Without Bosa, those numbers drop to 18% and 2%, both of which would rank last in the NFL. As if that wasn’t enough, the 49ers will also be without starting QB Brock Purdy, who is dealing with a right shoulder injury. That should make for quite the uphill climb in a game San Francisco desperately needs to win to stay in the NFC playoff picture. — Nick Wagoner

Packers storyline to watch: Love was a perfect 6-for-6 last week against the Bears on throws of 15 or more yards downfield — four which went to receiver Christian Watson — and he’s in the top five in the NFL in air yards per attempt. But the 49ers’ defense has been strong against deep throws. According to ESPN Research, quarterbacks facing the 49ers have the lowest Total QBR and second-lowest completion percentage on such throws, with three touchdown passes to seven interceptions. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: The Packers are 5-0 this season against teams with records of .500 or worse. They’re 2-3 against teams with winning records.

Bold prediction: 49ers tight end George Kittle will have 90-plus receiving yards. ESPN’s receiver scores are loving Kittle this season. He has the second-highest overall score among all wide receivers and tight ends (only A.J. Brown is ahead of him). — Walder

Injuries: 49ers | Packers

Fantasy X factor: 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings. Since the Week 9 bye, Jennings has led the team with 11 targets in back-to-back games, scoring 16-plus fantasy points each time. His efficiency stands out, too, as his 2.66 yards per route run is in elite company — close to players such as Puka Nacua (3.13) and Justin Jefferson (2.75). Jennings is making his case as a go-to option for the 49ers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, which is tied for their longest ATS losing streak under coach Matt LaFleur. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: 49ers 28, Packers 26
Moody’s pick: 49ers 27, Packers 24
Walder’s pick: Packers 24, 49ers 23
FPI prediction: GB, 54.6% (by an average of 1.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: 49ers TE Kittle vows to play vs. Packers … Packers’ Love learning from playoff loss to 49ers … How Williams is trying to remain NFL’s best OT at 36 … 49ers rule out Purdy, Nick Bosa; Allen to start

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4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: ARI -1 (47.5 O/U)

Cardinals storyline to watch: Sunday will be telling. How the Cardinals handle coming off their bye week after four straight wins could set the tone for the home stretch. Thus far, players say the focus has been there at practice, but how that translates to the field is yet to be seen. With a win over the Seahawks, the Cardinals will be in the undisputed driver’s seat of the NFC West with another matchup against Seattle coming in two weeks. — Josh Weinfuss

Seahawks storyline to watch: The Seahawks’ offensive line was a glaring weakness over their first nine games, but it had perhaps its best performance of the season in Seattle’s win over the 49ers. Abraham Lucas made his season debut at right tackle, and Olu Oluwatimi stepped in at center after Connor Williams’ abrupt retirement. The first-place Cardinals, whom Seattle faces twice over the next three weeks, rank in the bottom five in both pass rush win rate and pressure rate. — Brady Henderson

Stat to know: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has lost his past five games against Seattle. Another defeat would tie the second-longest losing streak by any starting quarterback against the Seahawks in the franchise’s history.

Bold prediction: Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen will allow no more than 20 receiving yards to receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Woolen has put up strong numbers as a nearest defender this season, allowing 0.7 yards per coverage snap — fifth fewest among outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Injuries: Cardinals | Seahawks

Fantasy X factor: Harrison. The Seahawks’ defense has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and while Harrison’s production has been up and down, he’s still commanding a 40% target share in the red zone — the eighth-highest share in the league. With the Seahawks also giving up the ninth-most receiving touchdowns to wideouts, Harrison could be in for a big day. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Four straight Seahawks games have gone under the total. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 30, Seahawks 27
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 28, Seahawks 24
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 29, Seahawks 26
FPI prediction: ARI, 54.4% (by an average of 1.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cards’ Robinson ‘taking it one day at a time’ in injury return … Seahawks’ training center loses power as huge storm hits state

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: PHI -2.5 (48.5 O/U)

Eagles storyline to watch: The Rams are coming off only their second game of the season without a turnover. After having an NFL-low two takeaways from Weeks 1 to 7, the Eagles lead the NFL with 11 takeaways since Week 8. According to ESPN Research, Philadelphia leads the NFL with 43 points off turnovers since Week 8. — Tim McManus

Rams storyline to watch: The Eagles have leaned heavily on running back Saquon Barkley, who leads the NFL with 1,347 scrimmage yards. Players are expecting defenses to focus more on Philly’s ground game down the stretch, which would put more of the onus on quarterback Jalen Hurts and the passing game. A key matchup will be receiver A.J. Brown versus a Rams pass defense that has yielded 18 touchdown passes this season. Brown’s 88.3 receiving yards per game ranks fourth behind only Nico Collins (103.5), Ja’Marr Chase (96.0) and Justin Jefferson (91.2). — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: The Eagles have had 150 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in five straight games. That’s the longest such streak since the 1988 Bengals (also five straight).

Bold prediction: Eagles guard Landon Dickerson will not surrender a pass block loss to either Braden Fiske or Kobie Turner. It’s a tough assignment, but Dickerson’s 94% pass block win rate ranks 10th among guards this season. — Walder

Injuries: Eagles | Rams

Fantasy X factor: Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith. Smith has been quiet lately, with only 10.3 fantasy points over the past two weeks. But don’t give up on him yet. This matchup against the Rams looks promising, and remember, Smith has hit 15-plus fantasy points in six of nine games this season. He’s poised for a bounce-back performance, and this could be the week. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is 8-13 ATS as a prime-time underdog (2-4 ATS with Rams). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Rams 23
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Rams 19
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Rams 20
FPI prediction: PHI, 58.6% (by an average of 3.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Eagles’ yin and yang CBs: Slay and Mitchell … Rams hope to edge out Eagles by disrupting ‘tush push’

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8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (50.5 O/U)

Ravens storyline to watch: Lamar Jackson has been the best quarterback in “Monday Night Football” history. In eight games, he has thrown 20 touchdown passes and no interceptions for an 86 QBR, which is the highest among QBs with at least five starts. The Chargers have been the stingiest defense in the NFL, though, allowing an NFL-best 14.5 points per game — the lowest scoring average after 11 weeks since the 2019 Patriots (10.8). — Jamison Hensley

Chargers storyline to watch: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is playing some of the best football of his career. He is on a streak of 246 pass attempts without an interception, which is the longest in team history. He also has six touchdowns on passes of 20-plus yards downfield, tied for the most in the NFL. This matchup could be in his favor as the Ravens’ have the NFL’s worst pass defense, allowing 284.5 yards per game. — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: Jackson (8.3) and Herbert (13.0) lead the NFL in touchdown-to-interception ratio. This will be the third instance in the past 20 seasons in which the outright leaders in that mark have met in Week 12 or later.

Bold prediction: Ravens cornerback Nate Wiggins will record the first interception of his career. Though the Baltimore pass defense has struggled overall, Wiggins is allowing just 0.8 yards per coverage snap (average is 1.2) despite being targeted at a roughly average 17% rate. — Walder

Injuries: Ravens | Chargers

Fantasy X factor: Herbert. The Ravens’ defense has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Chargers have leaned heavily on Herbert and the passing game recently. He has scored 19-plus fantasy points in four straight games. With this matchup, expect the Chargers to keep airing it out, making Herbert and his receivers very good fantasy options this week. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Overs are 9-2 in Ravens games this season, which is the highest over rate in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Chargers 28, Ravens 25
Moody’s pick: Chargers 23, Ravens 20
Walder’s pick: Ravens 24, Chargers 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 60.4% (by an average of 4.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Tucker on missed kicks: ‘Nobody takes it more personally than I do’ … McConkey’s signature rookie moment came in critical win over the Bengals

The Week 11 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 11 slate, including an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Steelers and the Chiefs’ trip to Buffalo. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Texans and the Cowboys on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
BAL-PIT | GB-CHI | JAX-DET
MIN-TEN | LV-MIA | LAR-NE
CLE-NO | IND-NYJ | ATL-DEN
SEA-SF | KC-BUF | CIN-LAC
HOU-DAL

Thursday: PHI 26, WSH 18
Byes: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (47.5 O/U)

Ravens storyline to watch: In his past eight games, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 7-1, throwing 22 touchdown passes and one interception. But the Steelers have contained Jackson more than any other team. He is 1-3 against Pittsburgh and has totaled four touchdown passes and seven interceptions while getting sacked 20 times. — Jamison Hensley

Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers are finally opening AFC North play, and they’ll do it with an offense that could give the Ravens fits. With Russell Wilson at the helm, the Steelers are averaging 230 passing yards per game and 30.3 points per game in the past three weeks. The Ravens, meanwhile, are allowing a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per game in addition to 25.3 points per game. To make matters worse, the Ravens could be without safety Kyle Hamilton (ankle). — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: The Ravens have allowed an NFL-high 22 completions this season on passes 20 or more yards downfield.

Bold prediction: Steelers defensive tackle Keeanu Benton will record at least two quarterback hits. He rattled off five straight games with a quarterback hit to start the season but hasn’t had one since Week 5. He’s playing more, and his pass rush win rate is a strong 12% at defensive tackle — 11th best at the position. — Walder

Injuries: Ravens | Steelers

Fantasy X factor: Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. The rapport between Pickens and Wilson is undeniable. He has scored 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past three games. He faces a Ravens defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Overs are 9-1 in Ravens games this season, which is the highest rate in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Ravens 33, Steelers 30
Moody’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 27
Walder’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 22
FPI prediction: BAL, 60.9% (by an average of 4.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Can the Ravens fix their league-worst pass defense? … Steelers LB Queen says Ravens didn’t want him back

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: GB -5 (40.5 O/U)

Packers storyline to watch: Coach Matt LaFleur and the Packers have won 10 straight against the Bears. A loss Sunday would end not only that streak but also another one: The Packers have not started 0-3 in division play since 2005, but they already have lost to the Vikings and Lions this season. The 19-year streak of avoiding an 0-3 division start is the second-longest active streak behind the Patriots, who haven’t started 0-3 in division play since 1994. — Rob Demovsky

Bears storyline to watch: Thomas Brown takes over at offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron, who was fired Tuesday, and will call plays for a Bears offense that has gone 23 consecutive drives without a touchdown. Coach Matt Eberflus implored the offense to display more “creativity” after the Bears stumbled during a three-game losing streak during which they rank dead last in points (9.0), yards per play (3.7), third-down conversion rate (15%) and touchdowns (0). The Bears are 2-10 in NFC North games under Eberflus, whose .167 win percentage in division play is the worst in the NFL since 2022. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: Quarterback Jordan Love has thrown an interception in seven straight games, which is the longest single-season streak by a Packers signal-caller since 2005 (Brett Favre, 10).

Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will have his first QBR over 50 since Week 6. I’m betting changing to Brown as the offensive playcaller will help spark the offense — which surely has the talent to be better than it has been. — Walder

Injuries: Packers | Bears

Fantasy X factor: Packers tight end Tucker Kraft. He has scored 12 or more fantasy points in four of his past six games. What stands out is his ability to gain yards after the catch, where he leads the Packers. Kraft has a favorable matchup facing a Bears defense that allows the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS at home this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 15
Moody’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 16
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: GB, 63.5% (by an average of 4.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jacobs brings ‘different dynamic’ to Packers’ backfield … QB Williams believes Bears have his back amid struggles … OC Waldron fired: What’s next for Bears, QB Williams

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -14 (46.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to watch: Quarterback Mac Jones will make his second start for Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). Jones is coming off a game in which he threw for 111 yards, turned the ball over three times and led the Jaguars to just 143 yards of offense (the fifth-lowest total in franchise history) in a loss to Minnesota. One thing that could help is getting receiver Brian Thomas Jr. involved again. He has had four catches for 34 yards the past two weeks. — Mike DiRocco

Lions storyline to watch: New defensive lineman Za’Darius Smith is expected to make his Lions debut against Jacksonville after being traded from Cleveland last week. Smith was not activated last Sunday to allow him to get acclimated to the organization, but he’s ready to go this week. The Lions aren’t putting pressure on him to fill the role of Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who underwent surgery to repair his fractured tibia and fibula, but to elevate the defense in his own way. “I’m not going to be looking at the stats,” coach Dan Campbell said. “I just want to know that he’s doing his job and he’s as productive as he can be in that.” — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-6 this season in one-score games (decided by eight or fewer points). That’s the most such losses in the NFL.

Bold prediction: Lions linebacker Jack Campbell will record at least 11 total tackles. Campbell ranks third among all players in run stop win rate (48.6%) and is recording a tackle or assist on 25% of opponent run plays, a very high rate. — Walder

Injuries: Jaguars | Lions

Fantasy X factor: Lions running back David Montgomery. He’s averaging 15.6 touches and 15.4 fantasy points per game, making him a reliable option. Also, the Jaguars’ defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs, so expect Montgomery to see plenty of action. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jaguars can clinch the under on their win total (8.5) with a loss. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 14
Moody’s pick: Lions 34, Jaguars 17
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 13
FPI prediction: DET, 86.7% (by an average of 16.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jags rule out Lawrence, hope for post-bye return … Lions TE LaPorta day-to-day with shoulder injury … Lions’ last-second win interrupted by flight announcement

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (39.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to watch: Sunday’s game will be the Vikings’ third consecutive AFC South matchup. They’ve won the first two, against the Colts and Jaguars, despite quarterback Sam Darnold committing three turnovers in each game. But their defense has forced five turnovers during that stretch, and it will be primed to generate more against a Titans offense that has committed 17 this season, tied for the third most in the league. — Kevin Seifert

Titans storyline to watch: The Titans are well aware of the Vikings’ tenacious defense and how it confuses quarterbacks. Considering the offensive line issues and quarterback Will Levis’ inexperience, it would seem as if Tennessee is at a major disadvantage. Titans coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz said they want to make it easier for Levis to see the answers to the blitz early in the play and show Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores they have counters to his extensive blitz package. — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has gone three straight games without a receiving touchdown, his longest streak this season. He has not had a four-game drought since 2022, when he went six straight games without a touchdown reception.

Bold prediction: Titans edge Harold Landry III will record a sack. Though he has only one sack in his past five games, Landry has a 0.74-second pass rush get-off, the fifth fastest of any player with at least 100 pass rushes, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And Darnold has taken four sacks in three of his past five games. — Walder

Injuries: Vikings | Titans

Fantasy X factor: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley. His 25.4 fantasy points in Week 10 against a tough Chargers defense was a season high. After the DeAndre Hopkins trade to the Chiefs, Ridley has had eight or more targets in three straight games and should continue to shine against the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings are 7-2 ATS in the first quarter this season, which is the best mark in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Vikings 28, Titans 14
Moody’s pick: Viking 24, Titans 13
Walder’s pick: Vikings 22, Titans 16
FPI prediction: MIN, 65.5% (by an average of 6.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ conundrum: QB Darnold’s aggressiveness vs. INTs

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7 (43.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders will sport a new-look offense with the same quarterback, Gardner Minshew. Las Vegas fired its offensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and offensive line coach before the bye week, and pass game coordinator Scott Turner was elevated to interim OC … with an assist from a familiar face. Former Raiders coach and longtime NFL coach Norv Turner, Scott’s dad, joined the staff as an adviser. “A wealth of information,” the younger Turner said of his father, who called plays in the NFL from 1991 through 2019, with a one-year break. Minshew said: “It’s kind of the same bones, same general idea, just … a little bit different flavor.” — Paul Gutierrez

Dolphins storyline to watch: Dolphins rookie linebacker Chop Robinson has recorded at least four pressures in each of his past three games, and he recorded a sack in each of his past two. Against a Raiders team that has allowed the fifth-most sacks in the NFL this season, Robinson and the Dolphins’ defense could replicate their performance in Week 10, when they pressured Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford 15 times. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Raiders have not lost six straight games in a single season since 2014. They started that season with 10 consecutive losses.

Bold prediction: Raiders running back Alexander Mattison, fresh off a zero-reception game, will record a season high in receiving yards (currently 43). Mattison ranks fifth among running backs in ESPN’s overall receiving score (72), flashing strong open and YAC scores. — Walder

Injuries: Raiders | Dolphins

Fantasy X factor: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He has averaged just 13.4 fantasy points per game since Week 8. But this week, Tagovailoa faces a Raiders defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS at home this season. They are 1-4 ATS as favorites. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Dolphins 24, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 28, Raiders 14
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 26, Raiders 16
FPI prediction: MIA, 62.4% (by an average of 5.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Raiders sticking with Minshew over Ridder at QB … Dolphins RT Jackson out for season after surgery … McDaniel ignores ex-player calling Dolphins ‘soft’

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: LAR -5 (43.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception in six straight games, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. The Patriots’ defense has grabbed only four interceptions all season, which is tied for 27th in the league. — Sarah Barshop

Patriots storyline to watch: Veteran Yannick Ngakoue, who was claimed on waivers from the Ravens on Nov. 8, is expected to make his Patriots debut with his primary contributions coming as a pass rusher. The Patriots’ defense had its best third-down performance of the season last week, holding the Bears to a 1-of-14 success rate and hopes to continue that against a Rams offense that was 3-of-12 on third down in last week’s loss to the Dolphins. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: The Patriots snapped an eight-game home losing streak against the Jets in Week 8. They’re seeking consecutive home wins for the first time since November 2022.

Bold prediction: Rams running back Kyren Williams will record 25-plus carries. The Patriots’ defense struggles to stop the run and the pass, but I expect the Rams to build a bit of a lead here and then let Williams carry them on long drives the rest of the way. They have the second-highest success rate (48%) on designed carries. — Walder

Injuries: Rams | Patriots

Fantasy X factor: Patriots tight end Hunter Henry. He had a disappointing Week 10 but had scored 12-plus fantasy points in three of his previous four games. Henry has built great chemistry with quarterback Drake Maye and has a favorable matchup against a Rams defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Since 2022, the Rams are 4-1 ATS as road favorites. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Rams 29, Patriots 27
Moody’s pick: Rams 22, Patriots 19
Walder’s pick: Rams 27, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 63.5% (by an average of 5.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rams CB Ramsey trade first domino in team philosophy change … Does QB Maye crack the top 10 NFL rookies list?

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: NO -1 (44.5 O/U)

Browns storyline to watch: The Browns are back from their bye week, and defensive communication is a point of emphasis after Cleveland gave up a pair of deep touchdown passes in a Week 9 loss to the Chargers. It will be key against a Saints offense that rediscovered its explosive passing game from earlier in the season. New Orleans completed a season-high five passes of 20 or more yards in last week’s win over the Falcons. — Daniel Oyefusi

Saints storyline to watch: The Saints had a late forced fumble and interception to seal a win against the Falcons last week, and they hope they can make some of those plays against former quarterback Jameis Winston, who has had five interceptions in his past four starts (two in two starts as a Saint in 2023 and three last week). The Saints heaped praise on Winston as a teammate and leader this week, but Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu, who had an interception last week, also joked, “I’m expecting a shot, first play of the game, Jameis. Throw it up there.” — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: A loss for the Saints will be the franchise’s worst 11-game start to a season since 2005, when they also went 3-8.

Bold prediction: Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore will have 60-plus receiving yards. He had nine targets a week ago and managed only 28 yards, but I expect that target volume to still be there, especially since he might often draw Alontae Taylor, who has allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap this season (third most among slot corners), per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Injuries: Browns | Saints

Fantasy X factor: Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman. Cleveland is coming off a bye with Winston back under center and Tillman as his No. 1 target. The pair will be up against a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts. Tillman has been consistent, scoring 18-plus fantasy points in each of his past three games and racking up 10-plus targets in two of those. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their past six games (they covered last week). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Browns 22, Saints 20
Moody’s pick: Browns 27, Saints 24
Walder’s pick: Browns 30, Saints 23
FPI prediction: CLE, 50.0% (by an average of 0.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Browns GM noncommittal on Watson’s future in Cleveland … How Saints’ salary cap math could impact Carr, veterans … LT Wills: ‘Business decision’ to sit out game backfired

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NYJ -4 (43.5 O/U)

Colts storyline to watch: Quarterback Anthony Richardson returns to the lineup for the Colts, and that could be a boost for Indy’s run game. In the five full games Richardson played this season, the Colts averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 142.4 rushing yards per game and had 28 rushes of 10 yards or longer. The Colts recorded seven of their nine total rushing touchdowns in those five games. Meanwhile, running back Jonathan Taylor has four 100-yard performances in just seven games this season. — Stephen Holder

Jets storyline to watch: The Jets, who missed 20 tackles in last week’s blowout loss to the Cardinals, put a major emphasis on tackling fundamentals in practice. Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich, a former NFL linebacker, gave a tackling presentation to the entire team (yes, even offense). They also practiced in pads more than usual. In the past five games, the Jets have allowed 501 yards after contact, ranking 31st over that span. — Rich Cimini

Stat to know: Jets wide receiver Davante Adams’ 51% catch percentage is the second worst in the NFL since Week 7 among pass catchers with a minimum of 25 targets.

Bold prediction: Richardson will break off a 30-plus-yard run and lead the Colts to victory. Richardson certainly comes with his fair share of variance, but that can work in Indianapolis’ favor, too. And you can usually count on the Jets to beat themselves. — Walder

Injuries: Colts | Jets

Fantasy X factor: Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He hasn’t delivered the fantasy season that managers were hoping for, with just two games with more than 20 fantasy points. However, Rodgers has a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that allows the seventh-most passing yards per game and the fifth-highest completion percentage. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Colts 21, Jets 14
Moody’s pick: Jets 24, Colts 17
Walder’s pick: Colts 23, Jets 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 59.2% (by an average of 3.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Colts bench Flacco, turn back to Richardson at QB … Inside Rodgers’ complicated relationship with the Jets … How does Ulbrich compare to Saleh?

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4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DEN -2.5 (44.5 O/U)

Falcons storyline to watch: The Falcons allow the highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks in the league (70.3%), are tied for worst in quarterback pressure percentage (27.4%) and have the fewest sacks (9). Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has fared much better while not under pressure — completing 70.2%, vs. 43.9% when under duress. — Marc Raimondi

Broncos storyline to watch: The Falcons will be the fourth offense currently ranked in the top 10 that the Broncos have faced this season. Two times (against Tampa and Kansas City), Denver’s defense made life fairly miserable for those offenses, and one offense (Baltimore) put together seven scoring drives. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is seeking to avoid having consecutive games without a passing touchdown for the first time in his career as a starter.

Bold prediction: The Broncos’ defense will score a touchdown. Atlanta’s offense versus Denver’s defense is a strength-on-strength battle, but the Broncos’ defense, which is fourth in EPA per play, is especially good against the pass. — Walder

Injuries: Falcons | Broncos

Fantasy X factor: Nix. The rookie is clearly in full command, and coach Sean Payton continues to impress as a playcaller. Nix has been a reliable fantasy performer, scoring 16 or more points in five of his past six games, including three with 20-plus points. The Falcons give up the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons are 3-1 ATS on the road this season after going 2-7 ATS on the road last season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Falcons 24, Broncos 22
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Falcons 21
Walder’s pick: Broncos 20, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: ATL, 58.1% (by an average of 2.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Falcons back kicker Koo despite 3 missed field goals in loss … Rookie RB Estime could be spark for Broncos’ backfield … Falcons need better starts … Tough loss to Chiefs shows Broncos’ limited margin for error

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4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: SF -6.5 (45.5 O/U)

Seahawks storyline to watch: The tables have turned on an NFC West rivalry the Seahawks used to dominate. They’ve lost six straight regular-season and playoff games to the 49ers by a combined score of 184-96, including a 36-24 defeat in Week 6 that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Seattle could have several key players available Sunday who didn’t play in the first meeting, such as Abraham Lucas, Byron Murphy II, Riq Woolen and trade acquisition Ernest Jones IV. — Brady Henderson

49ers storyline to watch: Christian McCaffrey’s return last week helped him knock some rust off before facing a team against which he has had great success. McCaffrey has averaged 163 scrimmage yards per game in six meetings with Seattle and reached 125 in all. If he gets to 125 again Sunday, he’d tie Jim Brown (vs. Philadelphia) as the only player in NFL history to post 125-plus scrimmage yards against one team seven consecutive times. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is 8-2 in his career against division opponents and has a 76.7 QBR in those games. That’s the second-highest QBR by any quarterback since the metric was introduced in 2006 (minimum of 10 starts).

Bold prediction: Jones will record a sack. He’s a great blitzer but wasn’t used to rushing the passer much in Tennessee. Last week he recorded a season-high 10 pass rushes, and I expect coach Mike Macdonald will want to keep deploying him like that. — Walder

Injuries: Seahawks | 49ers

Fantasy X factor: Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III. He has seen a dip in fantasy production lately. However, the 49ers allowed a combined 36.7 fantasy points to Buccaneers running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving in Week 10, showing vulnerability to the run. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The 49ers are 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS in five meetings since 2022. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 24
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Seahawks 20
Walder’s pick: 49ers 29, Seahawks 27
FPI prediction: SF, 69.1% (by an average of 6.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Seahawks activate Lucas from PUP, put Fant on IR … McCaffrey’s return has 49ers returning to roots … Seahawks waive leading tackler Dodson in ILB shake-up … 49ers’ Lenoir gets 5-year, $92M extension

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4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -2 (45.5 O/U)

Chiefs storyline to watch: In seven career games against the Chiefs, counting three in the playoffs, quarterback Josh Allen has 16 touchdown passes, three interceptions and a QBR of 74. Are the Chiefs capable of keeping him from another big game this time, even if Allen is throwing to a group of receivers depleted by injuries? In the past two weeks, the Chiefs put up little resistance against Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield and Denver’s Bo Nix. — Adam Teicher

Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills’ defense continue to limit the Chiefs’ offense in the regular season? The Bills have held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per game in four regular-season meetings since 2020. Taking the ball away is a point of emphasis for this defense and could be the key to success. The Bills have 12 straight games with at least one takeaway, the second-longest active streak in the NFL after the Lions (13). — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Bills have won five straight games; Buffalo’s plus-61 scoring margin during the win streak is the third highest by any team in the NFL over that span, trailing only the Lions (plus-91) and the Eagles (plus-82)

Bold prediction: Bills cornerback Christian Benford will pick off quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Benford is playing great this season. In fact, no outside cornerback has allowed fewer yards per coverage snap (0.6) than he has, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Part of that is because he’s allowing fewer targets than average (13%), but it’s also that he has a minus-9% completion percentage allowed over expectation. — Walder

Injuries: Chiefs | Bills

Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. Kansas City is first in time of possession (33:01), which means we should see a lot of Hunt. He has had 20-plus touches in each of his past four games, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in three of them. The Bills’ defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their past four conference games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bills 29, Chiefs 27
Moody’s pick: Bills 25, Chiefs 23
Walder’s pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 53.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: All the strange — and lucky — ways the Chiefs have gone 9-0 … Bills’ offensive stars called these plays for themselves — here’s how they worked out

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: LAC -1.5 (47.5 O/U)

Bengals storyline to watch: Can quarterback Joe Burrow keep attacking split-safety looks? This season, Burrow has the fifth-highest yards per attempt (8.4) against those safety shells, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The Chargers use the split-safety formation on 58.1% of opponent dropbacks, the second-highest clip in the league. — Ben Baby

Chargers storyline to watch: Sunday will be the first big test for the Chargers’ defense, which ranks first in the NFL in points allowed per game (13.1). The Bengals are one of the NFL’s best offenses, averaging the sixth-most points per game this year (26.1). — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: A win for the Bengals would increase their chances of making the playoffs from 37% to 52%, according to ESPN Analytics.

Bold prediction: Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston will record 80-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. That’s because he will most often line up in front of Cam Taylor-Britt. The Bengals cornerback has allowed 2.0 yards per coverage snap this year, second most among his position, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Injuries: Bengals | Chargers

Fantasy X factor: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have leaned more on Herbert and the passing game after the bye. He has had 30 or more pass attempts in three of his past five games. It’s important to note that Herbert has scored at least 19 fantasy points in three consecutive games. The Bengals allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road, while the Chargers are 4-0 ATS at home this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bengals 25, Chargers 23
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Bengals 23
Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Chargers 24
FPI prediction: LAC, 52.1% (by an average of 0.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Childhood photo links Zac Taylor, Jim Harbaugh before Bengals-Chargers … Do the Chargers have the NFL’s best defense? We’re about to find out … Bengals coach to advocate over potential late hits of Joe Burrow

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Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: HOU -7.5 (47.5 O/U)

Texans storyline to watch: The Texans are averaging 119 rushing yards per game, fueled by running back Joe Mixon, who has the third-highest average per game (98.3). The Cowboys are allowing 152.1 rushing yards per game, so this could lead to a huge night from Mixon. Also, wideout Nico Collins (hamstring) returns this week after missing the past five games, which should open up more running lanes for Mixon. — DJ Bien-Aime

Cowboys storyline to watch: Can the second week of Cooper Rush as the starting quarterback be better than the first? He averaged 1.96 yards per attempt last week against the Eagles, so it needs to be. The Cowboys are looking for their first win of the season at AT&T Stadium (0-4) .They have had three home losses by at least 25 points, matching the most in team history. The Cowboys have not lost five straight home games since 2015, when they finished 4-12. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: The Texans’ 15 takeaways since Week 6 leads the NFL. Houston produced only three takeaways over Weeks 1-5.

Bold prediction: The Cowboys will fail to cross midfield in the first half even with the sun having already set. Instead, their biggest problem will be themselves. And part of the equation here is that Houston will run all over them and own time of possession, barely giving Rush much time to work anyway. — Walder

Injuries: Texans | Cowboys

Fantasy X factor: Mixon. Houston’s passing game could get a boost with Collins back, but the Cowboys’ defense remains vulnerable against the run. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, and its defensive front ranks 30th in run stop win rate (27.1%). See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight straight). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Texans 30, Cowboys 9
Moody’s pick: Texans 28, Cowboys 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 30, Cowboys 6
FPI prediction: HOU, 71.1% (by an average of 8.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: How bad is Cowboys’ offense? Worst start in McCarthy’s career … What Prescott’s season-ending surgery would mean for Cowboys