Tag: fantasy

The Week 12 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 12 slate, including quarterback Tommy Devito’s first start of the season against the Bucs and the Cardinals facing the Seahawks in a key NFC West matchup. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Ravens and the Chargers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
MIN-CHI | DET-IND | NE-MIA
TB-NYG | DAL-WSH | KC-CAR
TEN-HOU | DEN-LV | SF-GB
ARI-SEA | PHI-LAR | BAL-LAC

Thursday: CLE 24, PIT 19
Byes: ATL, BUF, CIN, NO, NYJ, JAX

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: MIN -3.5 (39.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings are 8-4 on grass surfaces under coach Kevin O’Connell since the start of the 2022 season, including 2-0 at Soldier Field. That’s a decided departure from the franchise’s history after it moved indoors to the Metrodome in 1982 and later U.S. Bank Stadium in 2016. During those four decades, the team had a .402 winning percentage on grass and .586 on artificial surfaces. — Kevin Seifert

Bears storyline to watch: The Bears are in the midst of a four-game losing streak with the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. After switching offensive coordinators from Shane Waldron to Thomas Brown last week, Chicago notched its highest point total since Week 6 in a 20-19 loss to Green Bay. The Bears are averaging 11.5 points per game during this losing streak, which is the fewest points per game in the NFL in that span (since Week 8). Coach Matt Eberflus’ 2-11 record against NFC North opponents is the worst in the league since he was hired in 2022. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has had multiple turnovers in four games this season. Minnesota is undefeated in those contests.

Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will throw at least two interceptions. He played better last week, but I certainly don’t fancy his chances against the unorthodox and very successful Vikings defense. — Walder

Injuries: Vikings | Bears

Fantasy X factor: Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze. The rest of the season seems bright for Odunze. In Week 11, he saw seven-plus targets for the third time this season. He also led the Bears in targets ahead of DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Now, he faces a Vikings defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings have won and covered four straight meetings in Chicago. The past five meetings in Chicago all went under the total. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Vikings 28, Bears 25
Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Bears 14
Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Bears 16
FPI prediction: MIN, 57.0% (by an average of 3.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: How legit are the 8-2 Vikings? You might be surprised … How will OC change affect Bears QB Williams? … Bears’ Matt Eberflus defends decision to run clock before kick

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -7 (49.5 O/U)

Lions storyline to watch: Despite being the favorites to win this week, the Lions aren’t taking this game against the Colts lightly. Detroit is riding an eight-game winning streak and is the NFL’s lone team with a perfect road record (5-0), but coach Dan Campbell isn’t allowing his squad to buy into the hype. “We’re not the underdogs, but we have certain standards of the way we approach things, the way that we prepare for games, and as long as we do that, you will continue to be a tough team to beat, and that’s important,” Campbell said Monday. — Eric Woodyard

Colts storyline to watch: One strategy for beating a team with a high-powered offense like the Lions is to win the time-of-possession battle, thereby limiting the opponent’s possessions. But the Colts haven’t proven they can do this. The Colts rank 31st in time of possession at 26:40 per game. That has been detrimental for their defense because the unit has played too many snaps. Indianapolis is second in the league in defensive snaps, averaging 66.9 per game. — Stephen Holder

Stat to know: The Lions have four games this season with more touchdowns than incompletions. That’s the most such games in a season by any team since 1933.

Bold prediction: The two teams will have more combined play-action snaps than any game this season (current high is 32). The Lions and Colts rank first and third in play-action rate, respectively. — Walder

Injuries: Lions | Colts

Fantasy X factor: Colts wide receiver Josh Downs. He had a standout performance in Week 11, catching all five of his targets from quarterback Anthony Richardson for 19.4 fantasy points. Downs now faces a Lions secondary that’s struggling, allowing the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. With that in mind, Downs could be in for another huge performance. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Colts have not closed as seven-point home underdogs since 2017 (plus-11 versus the Steelers). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Lions 40, Colts 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 37, Colts 20
Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Colts 21
FPI prediction: DET, 73.4% (by an average of 9.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Goff: Lions striving for ‘perfection’ on offense … QB Richardson’s running is key for Colts … Lions lose LB Anzalone for 6-8 weeks … Paye’s heroics keep Colts in the running in AFC South

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7.5 (46.5 O/U)

Patriots storyline to watch: The Patriots’ defense has forced only one turnover in its past five games. New England’s minus-6 turnover differential is tied for 26th in the NFL, and finding a way to disrupt quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the rhythm of the Dolphins’ passing game will be key. The Dolphins (minus-2 on the season) are coming off a turnover-free game in a win over the Raiders. — Mike Reiss

Dolphins storyline to watch: Sunday’s matchup will feature two of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL over the past month. Since Week 6, Patriots signal-caller Drake Maye owns the lowest off-target throw percentage in the league at 9.2%; right behind him is Tagovailoa at 9.4%. Both players are also completing passes at a higher rate than expected, as both Tagovailoa (4.9%) and Maye (3%) rank in the top 10 in completion percentage over expectation. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Dolphins have a 14.6% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. Those chances increase to 18.9% with a win and drop to 5.9% with a loss.

Bold prediction: Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill will catch a pass of at least 30 air yards. The Dolphins face more two-high coverage than any other team, presumably in part to stop Hill. But the Patriots run two-high coverage only 39% of the time, which is below league average. — Walder

Injuries: Patriots | Dolphins

Fantasy X factor: Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. He has been on a roll with 20-plus touches in three of his past four games, topping 20 fantasy points in two of them. This week, he faces a Dolphins defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. Miami’s defensive front ranks 24th in run stop win rate (29.5%). Stevenson’s volume and this matchup make him a strong play. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots won the game outright in their past two appearances as at least six-point underdogs (Weeks 8 and 10 versus the Jets and at the Bears, respectively). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Patriots 22, Dolphins 20
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 28, Patriots 21
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20
FPI prediction: MIA, 68.0% (by an average of 6.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Through six starts, Pats QB Maye continues to impress … How Miami’s offense transitioned from explosive to consistent … Hill: Wrist surgery ‘brought up’ but I’m playing through it

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TB -6 (41.5 O/U)

Buccaneers storyline to watch: Bucs center Graham Barton couldn’t have put it any better: “The playoffs for us really start now.” Coming off their bye week at 4-6, having lost four straight, the Bucs are in a similar predicament as they were last season. They were able to win five out of their final six games. Barring any setbacks, wide receiver Mike Evans and cornerback Jamel Dean should return, and that should give them a boost, while the statuses of Tristan Wirfs (MCL sprain) and Zyon McCollum (hamstring) are up in the air. — Jenna Laine

Giants storyline to watch: Tommy DeVito is the Giants’ new starting quarterback in place of Daniel Jones. DeVito will be trying to rediscover the magic from last season, when he won three straight games as an undrafted free agent. He threw eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions as a rookie. But DeVito also finished with a total QBR of 26.9 as a starter, which was the worst of any qualifying quarterback from Weeks 10 to 16. He’ll have his work cut out for him after not having any reps with the first-team offense this summer and season. — Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: The Buccaneers are one of three teams in the Super Bowl era to average at least 27.9 points and be under .500. The other two teams (2016 Saints and 2016 Chargers) didn’t make the playoffs.

Bold prediction: Buccaneers edge rusher Yaya Diaby will record a sack. He should get some pass rushes against Evan Neal, the 2022 first-round pick who has struggled to see the field this season. DeVito recorded a 15.6% sack rate last season. — Walder

Injuries: Buccaneers | Giants

Fantasy X factor: Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. He could be key for the Giants with DeVito now under center. Since taking over as the lead back in Week 5, Tracy has scored 14-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games. Facing a Buccaneers defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs, Tracy is set up for another strong performance. Expect New York to lean on him heavily. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: DeVito is 3-3 outright in his career despite being at least a 4.5-point underdog in each game. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Giants 14
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Giants 17
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 26, Giants 10
FPI prediction: TB, 68.9% (by an average of 7.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: With easiest remaining schedule, can Bucs make a playoff push? … New Giants starter DeVito trying to avoid ‘fun and games’ … Is Bucs WR Evans’ 1,000-yard streak in jeopardy? … Giants bench QB Jones — what now?

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: WSH -10 (45.5 O/U)

Cowboys storyline to watch: At 3-7, the Cowboys are looking to avoid their first six-game losing streak since 2015, when they finished 4-12. To do so, they will have to beat their former defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, and several former teammates (Tyler Biadasz, Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr. among them) who joined the Commanders in the offseason. The Cowboys have beaten Washington in five of the past six meetings but bring a different team that will be without at least four opening-day starters because of injuries, though Pro Bowl cornerback DaRon Bland (foot) is expected to make his season debut. — Todd Archer

Commanders storyline to watch: The Commanders need to get their run game untracked after two lackluster showings against stout run defenses in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. If they do so, it unlocks their offense. In Washington’s seven wins, it has averaged 5.2 yards per carry, but in the four losses it’s 3.5. It’s not just about Brian Robinson Jr., who averages 4.7 yards per rush in wins, it’s also about the quarterback runs. In the seven wins, Jayden Daniels has rushed for 5.3 yards per carry. The good news for Washington: Dallas ranks 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.7). — John Keim

Stat to know: Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb has 106 targets this season, which is tied with Garrett Wilson for most in the NFL. But he has had only one game with 100-plus receiving yards after eight such games in 2023.

Bold prediction: The Commanders — including their running backs and Daniels — will combine to rush for 200 yards in a win over the Cowboys. Washington ranks first in run block win rate (74.7%), and the Cowboys rank 30th in run stop win rate (26.9%). — Walder

Injuries: Cowboys | Commanders

Fantasy X factor: Robinson. He logged 17 touches and 14.2 fantasy points against the Eagles in Week 11. Just last week, Dallas allowed the Texans’ Joe Mixon to go off for 35.3 fantasy points. Robinson is in a great spot to deliver for fantasy managers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their past five games. It’s their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight straight). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Commanders 40, Cowboys 17
Moody’s pick: Commanders 34, Cowboys 16
Walder’s pick: Commanders 37, Cowboys 13
FPI prediction: WSH, 78.3% (by an average of 11.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: The Cowboys’ tough transition from Quinn to Zimmer as DC … What’s happened to the Commanders’ offense? … How Dan Quinn reinvented himself and has Commanders contending

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: KC -10.5 (45.5 O/U)

Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs have played excellent run defense all season and are third in yards allowed per carry (3.6) and per game (85.3). But they get a difficult test against the Panthers’ Chuba Hubbard, who has three 100-yard games and a healthy 5.1 yard-per carry average this season. Can the Panthers shorten the game by successfully running on the Chiefs? — Adam Teicher

Panthers storyline to watch: The Panthers are getting healthy defensively, particularly with the addition of outside linebacker D.J. Wonnum, who adds a new dimension to their much-needed pass rush. A strong running game has kept Carolina close enough to win its past two games with Bryce Young at quarterback, but the Chiefs have the third-best run defense in the NFL. This might force Young to make more plays. Young has led the Panthers to two straight wins, throwing for 297 yards and one touchdown. — David Newton

Stat to know: Another win for the Panthers would tie their longest win streak over past five seasons. They won two straight before their bye.

Bold prediction: Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco will, if he plays, average over 5.5 yards per carry. The Panthers rank 28th in EPA allowed per designed carry, so it should be a nice soft landing for the running back potentially returning from injury. — Walder

Injuries: Chiefs | Panthers

Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. Kansas City might ease Pacheco back in his return from injury. That sets the stage for Hunt against a Panthers defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Hunt has had 20-plus touches in four of his past five games and scored 17 or more fantasy points in three of them. This could be his last big game before Pacheco takes over. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered in back-to-back games after starting the season 1-7 ATS. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 34, Panthers 17
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 31, Panthers 16
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 27, Panthers 13
FPI prediction: KC, 77.0% (by an average of 11.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: What’s gone right and wrong for playcaller Andy Reid so far? … With recent success, Panthers’ Young finally having fun

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: HOU -7.5 (40.5 O/U)

Titans storyline to watch: Texans defensive lineman Denico Autry faces his former team for the first time this week. After posting three sacks in five games, Autry, an 11-year veteran, will face Titans right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere, who has allowed six sacks. This matchup is a huge advantage for Houston, especially in third-and-long situations. “It’s almost miraculous he can still do it at his age the way he does it as a physical edge setter that can rush,” coach Brian Callahan said. — Turron Davenport

Texans storyline to watch: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has averaged 259 passing yards per game in his career, but the Titans are allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the league this season (164.6), so two strengths will collide. Texans coach DeMeco Ryans pointed out how the Titans’ third-down defense does “a really good job of playing tight coverage.” Tennessee has allowed the third-lowest conversion rate (32.5%) on defense, so if the Texans want to get Stroud going, winning on the key downs is important. — DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know: The Titans have a 14% chance for No. 1 pick in 2025 NFL draft, per ESPN Analytics. Their chances improve to 19% with a loss and fall to 5% with a win.

Bold prediction: Texans wide receiver Nico Collins will catch a 50-plus-yard touchdown. The Titans allow an average depth of target of 10.5 yards downfield, so I’d expect some deep shots to Collins. — Walder

Injuries: Titans | Texans

Fantasy X factor: Texans D/ST. Houston’s defensive front is elite, ranking second in run stop win rate (34.7%) and first in pass rush win rate (50.2%). It’s also tough on running backs, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game. That might force Tennessee to lean on quarterback Will Levis and the passing game — a risky move with an offensive line that ranks 28th in pass block win rate (52.3%). See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are the third team since 2000 to start 1-9 or worse ATS (2012 Eagles and 2007 Ravens). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Texans 28, Titans 14
Moody’s pick: Texans 23, Titans 16
Walder’s pick: Texans 27, Titans 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 71.1% (by an average of 8.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Titans back coach Brian Callahan despite losing ways … Stingley taking on task of covering top WRs

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4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DEN -6 (41.5 O/U)

Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos are 0-4 in Las Vegas since the Raiders made the move to the desert. To end the trend, it might come down to how well the Broncos’ offense closes the deal in the red zone. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is coming off the best game of his young career (307 yards, 4 TDs, 84.8% completion percentage) in the win over the Falcons. The Broncos are 5-of-15 in red zone trips in their five losses as compared to 16-of-21 in their six wins. The Raiders have allowed offenses to score touchdowns on at least 75% of their red zone trips in four of the past six games. If the Broncos can show some efficiency on offense and avoid the turnovers that have plagued them in past losses in Las Vegas they should end their Nevada losing streak. — Jeff Legwold

Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders already have the worst-ranked running game (75.2 yards per game) in the NFL, and their top two running backs — Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quad) — missed practice Wednesday. So Raider Nation turns its eyes to 10th-year vet Ameer Abdullah, who has rushed for 82 yards and a TD on 17 carries this season; rookie Dylan Laube, who has one carry, no yards and a lost fumble, and Sincere McCormick, who is on the practice squad and has appeared in one game in his career. Oh, and Denver boasts the sixth-best run defense in the league. “I’m ready,” said Abdullah, who rushed for 42 yards, his highest total since 2017, and a TD on five carries at Denver in Week 5. — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: The Raiders have lost seven straight to rookie starting quarterbacks since 2020. That’s the longest active streak in the NFL.

Bold prediction: The Raiders will not target Pat Surtain II at all. The Broncos’ star cornerback has just a 9.5% target rate this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is second lowest among outside corners. And the Raiders don’t have a receiver good enough to force the ball to. — Walder

Injuries: Broncos | Raiders

Fantasy X factor: Nix. He is in complete control of Denver’s offense, and he’s set up for another big game against a Raiders defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With wide receiver Courtland Sutton as a key target, expect the passing game to thrive. Nix has been on fire, scoring 16 or more fantasy points in seven straight games, including three with more than 23 points. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as favorites this season, and they’ve covered five straight games in that role. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Broncos 28, Raiders 20
Moody’s pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 10
Walder’s pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 13
FPI prediction: DEN, 56.2% (by an average of 2.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Broncos building young core amid salary cap constraints … Bowers central to Raiders’ new offense … How rookie Nix is keeping Broncos in playoff hunt

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4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: GB -2 (47.5 O/U)

49ers storyline to watch: The 49ers are still banged up, but their chances of slowing down Packers quarterback Jordan Love & Co. took a big hit this week with defensive end Nick Bosa ruled out with left hip and oblique injuries. San Francisco simply doesn’t have a reliable pass rush when Bosa isn’t on the field. With Bosa on the field, the Niners have a 33% pressure rate and 8% sack rate. Without Bosa, those numbers drop to 18% and 2%, both of which would rank last in the NFL. As if that wasn’t enough, the 49ers will also be without starting QB Brock Purdy, who is dealing with a right shoulder injury. That should make for quite the uphill climb in a game San Francisco desperately needs to win to stay in the NFC playoff picture. — Nick Wagoner

Packers storyline to watch: Love was a perfect 6-for-6 last week against the Bears on throws of 15 or more yards downfield — four which went to receiver Christian Watson — and he’s in the top five in the NFL in air yards per attempt. But the 49ers’ defense has been strong against deep throws. According to ESPN Research, quarterbacks facing the 49ers have the lowest Total QBR and second-lowest completion percentage on such throws, with three touchdown passes to seven interceptions. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: The Packers are 5-0 this season against teams with records of .500 or worse. They’re 2-3 against teams with winning records.

Bold prediction: 49ers tight end George Kittle will have 90-plus receiving yards. ESPN’s receiver scores are loving Kittle this season. He has the second-highest overall score among all wide receivers and tight ends (only A.J. Brown is ahead of him). — Walder

Injuries: 49ers | Packers

Fantasy X factor: 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings. Since the Week 9 bye, Jennings has led the team with 11 targets in back-to-back games, scoring 16-plus fantasy points each time. His efficiency stands out, too, as his 2.66 yards per route run is in elite company — close to players such as Puka Nacua (3.13) and Justin Jefferson (2.75). Jennings is making his case as a go-to option for the 49ers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, which is tied for their longest ATS losing streak under coach Matt LaFleur. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: 49ers 28, Packers 26
Moody’s pick: 49ers 27, Packers 24
Walder’s pick: Packers 24, 49ers 23
FPI prediction: GB, 54.6% (by an average of 1.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: 49ers TE Kittle vows to play vs. Packers … Packers’ Love learning from playoff loss to 49ers … How Williams is trying to remain NFL’s best OT at 36 … 49ers rule out Purdy, Nick Bosa; Allen to start

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4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: ARI -1 (47.5 O/U)

Cardinals storyline to watch: Sunday will be telling. How the Cardinals handle coming off their bye week after four straight wins could set the tone for the home stretch. Thus far, players say the focus has been there at practice, but how that translates to the field is yet to be seen. With a win over the Seahawks, the Cardinals will be in the undisputed driver’s seat of the NFC West with another matchup against Seattle coming in two weeks. — Josh Weinfuss

Seahawks storyline to watch: The Seahawks’ offensive line was a glaring weakness over their first nine games, but it had perhaps its best performance of the season in Seattle’s win over the 49ers. Abraham Lucas made his season debut at right tackle, and Olu Oluwatimi stepped in at center after Connor Williams’ abrupt retirement. The first-place Cardinals, whom Seattle faces twice over the next three weeks, rank in the bottom five in both pass rush win rate and pressure rate. — Brady Henderson

Stat to know: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has lost his past five games against Seattle. Another defeat would tie the second-longest losing streak by any starting quarterback against the Seahawks in the franchise’s history.

Bold prediction: Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen will allow no more than 20 receiving yards to receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Woolen has put up strong numbers as a nearest defender this season, allowing 0.7 yards per coverage snap — fifth fewest among outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Injuries: Cardinals | Seahawks

Fantasy X factor: Harrison. The Seahawks’ defense has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and while Harrison’s production has been up and down, he’s still commanding a 40% target share in the red zone — the eighth-highest share in the league. With the Seahawks also giving up the ninth-most receiving touchdowns to wideouts, Harrison could be in for a big day. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Four straight Seahawks games have gone under the total. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 30, Seahawks 27
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 28, Seahawks 24
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 29, Seahawks 26
FPI prediction: ARI, 54.4% (by an average of 1.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cards’ Robinson ‘taking it one day at a time’ in injury return … Seahawks’ training center loses power as huge storm hits state

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: PHI -2.5 (48.5 O/U)

Eagles storyline to watch: The Rams are coming off only their second game of the season without a turnover. After having an NFL-low two takeaways from Weeks 1 to 7, the Eagles lead the NFL with 11 takeaways since Week 8. According to ESPN Research, Philadelphia leads the NFL with 43 points off turnovers since Week 8. — Tim McManus

Rams storyline to watch: The Eagles have leaned heavily on running back Saquon Barkley, who leads the NFL with 1,347 scrimmage yards. Players are expecting defenses to focus more on Philly’s ground game down the stretch, which would put more of the onus on quarterback Jalen Hurts and the passing game. A key matchup will be receiver A.J. Brown versus a Rams pass defense that has yielded 18 touchdown passes this season. Brown’s 88.3 receiving yards per game ranks fourth behind only Nico Collins (103.5), Ja’Marr Chase (96.0) and Justin Jefferson (91.2). — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: The Eagles have had 150 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in five straight games. That’s the longest such streak since the 1988 Bengals (also five straight).

Bold prediction: Eagles guard Landon Dickerson will not surrender a pass block loss to either Braden Fiske or Kobie Turner. It’s a tough assignment, but Dickerson’s 94% pass block win rate ranks 10th among guards this season. — Walder

Injuries: Eagles | Rams

Fantasy X factor: Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith. Smith has been quiet lately, with only 10.3 fantasy points over the past two weeks. But don’t give up on him yet. This matchup against the Rams looks promising, and remember, Smith has hit 15-plus fantasy points in six of nine games this season. He’s poised for a bounce-back performance, and this could be the week. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is 8-13 ATS as a prime-time underdog (2-4 ATS with Rams). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Rams 23
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Rams 19
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Rams 20
FPI prediction: PHI, 58.6% (by an average of 3.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Eagles’ yin and yang CBs: Slay and Mitchell … Rams hope to edge out Eagles by disrupting ‘tush push’

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8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (50.5 O/U)

Ravens storyline to watch: Lamar Jackson has been the best quarterback in “Monday Night Football” history. In eight games, he has thrown 20 touchdown passes and no interceptions for an 86 QBR, which is the highest among QBs with at least five starts. The Chargers have been the stingiest defense in the NFL, though, allowing an NFL-best 14.5 points per game — the lowest scoring average after 11 weeks since the 2019 Patriots (10.8). — Jamison Hensley

Chargers storyline to watch: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is playing some of the best football of his career. He is on a streak of 246 pass attempts without an interception, which is the longest in team history. He also has six touchdowns on passes of 20-plus yards downfield, tied for the most in the NFL. This matchup could be in his favor as the Ravens’ have the NFL’s worst pass defense, allowing 284.5 yards per game. — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: Jackson (8.3) and Herbert (13.0) lead the NFL in touchdown-to-interception ratio. This will be the third instance in the past 20 seasons in which the outright leaders in that mark have met in Week 12 or later.

Bold prediction: Ravens cornerback Nate Wiggins will record the first interception of his career. Though the Baltimore pass defense has struggled overall, Wiggins is allowing just 0.8 yards per coverage snap (average is 1.2) despite being targeted at a roughly average 17% rate. — Walder

Injuries: Ravens | Chargers

Fantasy X factor: Herbert. The Ravens’ defense has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Chargers have leaned heavily on Herbert and the passing game recently. He has scored 19-plus fantasy points in four straight games. With this matchup, expect the Chargers to keep airing it out, making Herbert and his receivers very good fantasy options this week. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Overs are 9-2 in Ravens games this season, which is the highest over rate in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Chargers 28, Ravens 25
Moody’s pick: Chargers 23, Ravens 20
Walder’s pick: Ravens 24, Chargers 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 60.4% (by an average of 4.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Tucker on missed kicks: ‘Nobody takes it more personally than I do’ … McConkey’s signature rookie moment came in critical win over the Bengals

The Week 11 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 11 slate, including an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Steelers and the Chiefs’ trip to Buffalo. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Texans and the Cowboys on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
BAL-PIT | GB-CHI | JAX-DET
MIN-TEN | LV-MIA | LAR-NE
CLE-NO | IND-NYJ | ATL-DEN
SEA-SF | KC-BUF | CIN-LAC
HOU-DAL

Thursday: PHI 26, WSH 18
Byes: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (47.5 O/U)

Ravens storyline to watch: In his past eight games, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 7-1, throwing 22 touchdown passes and one interception. But the Steelers have contained Jackson more than any other team. He is 1-3 against Pittsburgh and has totaled four touchdown passes and seven interceptions while getting sacked 20 times. — Jamison Hensley

Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers are finally opening AFC North play, and they’ll do it with an offense that could give the Ravens fits. With Russell Wilson at the helm, the Steelers are averaging 230 passing yards per game and 30.3 points per game in the past three weeks. The Ravens, meanwhile, are allowing a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per game in addition to 25.3 points per game. To make matters worse, the Ravens could be without safety Kyle Hamilton (ankle). — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: The Ravens have allowed an NFL-high 22 completions this season on passes 20 or more yards downfield.

Bold prediction: Steelers defensive tackle Keeanu Benton will record at least two quarterback hits. He rattled off five straight games with a quarterback hit to start the season but hasn’t had one since Week 5. He’s playing more, and his pass rush win rate is a strong 12% at defensive tackle — 11th best at the position. — Walder

Injuries: Ravens | Steelers

Fantasy X factor: Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. The rapport between Pickens and Wilson is undeniable. He has scored 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past three games. He faces a Ravens defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Overs are 9-1 in Ravens games this season, which is the highest rate in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Ravens 33, Steelers 30
Moody’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 27
Walder’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 22
FPI prediction: BAL, 60.9% (by an average of 4.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Can the Ravens fix their league-worst pass defense? … Steelers LB Queen says Ravens didn’t want him back

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: GB -5 (40.5 O/U)

Packers storyline to watch: Coach Matt LaFleur and the Packers have won 10 straight against the Bears. A loss Sunday would end not only that streak but also another one: The Packers have not started 0-3 in division play since 2005, but they already have lost to the Vikings and Lions this season. The 19-year streak of avoiding an 0-3 division start is the second-longest active streak behind the Patriots, who haven’t started 0-3 in division play since 1994. — Rob Demovsky

Bears storyline to watch: Thomas Brown takes over at offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron, who was fired Tuesday, and will call plays for a Bears offense that has gone 23 consecutive drives without a touchdown. Coach Matt Eberflus implored the offense to display more “creativity” after the Bears stumbled during a three-game losing streak during which they rank dead last in points (9.0), yards per play (3.7), third-down conversion rate (15%) and touchdowns (0). The Bears are 2-10 in NFC North games under Eberflus, whose .167 win percentage in division play is the worst in the NFL since 2022. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: Quarterback Jordan Love has thrown an interception in seven straight games, which is the longest single-season streak by a Packers signal-caller since 2005 (Brett Favre, 10).

Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will have his first QBR over 50 since Week 6. I’m betting changing to Brown as the offensive playcaller will help spark the offense — which surely has the talent to be better than it has been. — Walder

Injuries: Packers | Bears

Fantasy X factor: Packers tight end Tucker Kraft. He has scored 12 or more fantasy points in four of his past six games. What stands out is his ability to gain yards after the catch, where he leads the Packers. Kraft has a favorable matchup facing a Bears defense that allows the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS at home this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 15
Moody’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 16
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: GB, 63.5% (by an average of 4.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jacobs brings ‘different dynamic’ to Packers’ backfield … QB Williams believes Bears have his back amid struggles … OC Waldron fired: What’s next for Bears, QB Williams

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -14 (46.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to watch: Quarterback Mac Jones will make his second start for Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). Jones is coming off a game in which he threw for 111 yards, turned the ball over three times and led the Jaguars to just 143 yards of offense (the fifth-lowest total in franchise history) in a loss to Minnesota. One thing that could help is getting receiver Brian Thomas Jr. involved again. He has had four catches for 34 yards the past two weeks. — Mike DiRocco

Lions storyline to watch: New defensive lineman Za’Darius Smith is expected to make his Lions debut against Jacksonville after being traded from Cleveland last week. Smith was not activated last Sunday to allow him to get acclimated to the organization, but he’s ready to go this week. The Lions aren’t putting pressure on him to fill the role of Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who underwent surgery to repair his fractured tibia and fibula, but to elevate the defense in his own way. “I’m not going to be looking at the stats,” coach Dan Campbell said. “I just want to know that he’s doing his job and he’s as productive as he can be in that.” — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-6 this season in one-score games (decided by eight or fewer points). That’s the most such losses in the NFL.

Bold prediction: Lions linebacker Jack Campbell will record at least 11 total tackles. Campbell ranks third among all players in run stop win rate (48.6%) and is recording a tackle or assist on 25% of opponent run plays, a very high rate. — Walder

Injuries: Jaguars | Lions

Fantasy X factor: Lions running back David Montgomery. He’s averaging 15.6 touches and 15.4 fantasy points per game, making him a reliable option. Also, the Jaguars’ defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs, so expect Montgomery to see plenty of action. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jaguars can clinch the under on their win total (8.5) with a loss. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 14
Moody’s pick: Lions 34, Jaguars 17
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 13
FPI prediction: DET, 86.7% (by an average of 16.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jags rule out Lawrence, hope for post-bye return … Lions TE LaPorta day-to-day with shoulder injury … Lions’ last-second win interrupted by flight announcement

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (39.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to watch: Sunday’s game will be the Vikings’ third consecutive AFC South matchup. They’ve won the first two, against the Colts and Jaguars, despite quarterback Sam Darnold committing three turnovers in each game. But their defense has forced five turnovers during that stretch, and it will be primed to generate more against a Titans offense that has committed 17 this season, tied for the third most in the league. — Kevin Seifert

Titans storyline to watch: The Titans are well aware of the Vikings’ tenacious defense and how it confuses quarterbacks. Considering the offensive line issues and quarterback Will Levis’ inexperience, it would seem as if Tennessee is at a major disadvantage. Titans coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz said they want to make it easier for Levis to see the answers to the blitz early in the play and show Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores they have counters to his extensive blitz package. — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has gone three straight games without a receiving touchdown, his longest streak this season. He has not had a four-game drought since 2022, when he went six straight games without a touchdown reception.

Bold prediction: Titans edge Harold Landry III will record a sack. Though he has only one sack in his past five games, Landry has a 0.74-second pass rush get-off, the fifth fastest of any player with at least 100 pass rushes, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And Darnold has taken four sacks in three of his past five games. — Walder

Injuries: Vikings | Titans

Fantasy X factor: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley. His 25.4 fantasy points in Week 10 against a tough Chargers defense was a season high. After the DeAndre Hopkins trade to the Chiefs, Ridley has had eight or more targets in three straight games and should continue to shine against the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings are 7-2 ATS in the first quarter this season, which is the best mark in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Vikings 28, Titans 14
Moody’s pick: Viking 24, Titans 13
Walder’s pick: Vikings 22, Titans 16
FPI prediction: MIN, 65.5% (by an average of 6.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ conundrum: QB Darnold’s aggressiveness vs. INTs

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7 (43.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders will sport a new-look offense with the same quarterback, Gardner Minshew. Las Vegas fired its offensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and offensive line coach before the bye week, and pass game coordinator Scott Turner was elevated to interim OC … with an assist from a familiar face. Former Raiders coach and longtime NFL coach Norv Turner, Scott’s dad, joined the staff as an adviser. “A wealth of information,” the younger Turner said of his father, who called plays in the NFL from 1991 through 2019, with a one-year break. Minshew said: “It’s kind of the same bones, same general idea, just … a little bit different flavor.” — Paul Gutierrez

Dolphins storyline to watch: Dolphins rookie linebacker Chop Robinson has recorded at least four pressures in each of his past three games, and he recorded a sack in each of his past two. Against a Raiders team that has allowed the fifth-most sacks in the NFL this season, Robinson and the Dolphins’ defense could replicate their performance in Week 10, when they pressured Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford 15 times. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Raiders have not lost six straight games in a single season since 2014. They started that season with 10 consecutive losses.

Bold prediction: Raiders running back Alexander Mattison, fresh off a zero-reception game, will record a season high in receiving yards (currently 43). Mattison ranks fifth among running backs in ESPN’s overall receiving score (72), flashing strong open and YAC scores. — Walder

Injuries: Raiders | Dolphins

Fantasy X factor: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He has averaged just 13.4 fantasy points per game since Week 8. But this week, Tagovailoa faces a Raiders defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS at home this season. They are 1-4 ATS as favorites. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Dolphins 24, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 28, Raiders 14
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 26, Raiders 16
FPI prediction: MIA, 62.4% (by an average of 5.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Raiders sticking with Minshew over Ridder at QB … Dolphins RT Jackson out for season after surgery … McDaniel ignores ex-player calling Dolphins ‘soft’

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: LAR -5 (43.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception in six straight games, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. The Patriots’ defense has grabbed only four interceptions all season, which is tied for 27th in the league. — Sarah Barshop

Patriots storyline to watch: Veteran Yannick Ngakoue, who was claimed on waivers from the Ravens on Nov. 8, is expected to make his Patriots debut with his primary contributions coming as a pass rusher. The Patriots’ defense had its best third-down performance of the season last week, holding the Bears to a 1-of-14 success rate and hopes to continue that against a Rams offense that was 3-of-12 on third down in last week’s loss to the Dolphins. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: The Patriots snapped an eight-game home losing streak against the Jets in Week 8. They’re seeking consecutive home wins for the first time since November 2022.

Bold prediction: Rams running back Kyren Williams will record 25-plus carries. The Patriots’ defense struggles to stop the run and the pass, but I expect the Rams to build a bit of a lead here and then let Williams carry them on long drives the rest of the way. They have the second-highest success rate (48%) on designed carries. — Walder

Injuries: Rams | Patriots

Fantasy X factor: Patriots tight end Hunter Henry. He had a disappointing Week 10 but had scored 12-plus fantasy points in three of his previous four games. Henry has built great chemistry with quarterback Drake Maye and has a favorable matchup against a Rams defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Since 2022, the Rams are 4-1 ATS as road favorites. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Rams 29, Patriots 27
Moody’s pick: Rams 22, Patriots 19
Walder’s pick: Rams 27, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 63.5% (by an average of 5.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rams CB Ramsey trade first domino in team philosophy change … Does QB Maye crack the top 10 NFL rookies list?

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: NO -1 (44.5 O/U)

Browns storyline to watch: The Browns are back from their bye week, and defensive communication is a point of emphasis after Cleveland gave up a pair of deep touchdown passes in a Week 9 loss to the Chargers. It will be key against a Saints offense that rediscovered its explosive passing game from earlier in the season. New Orleans completed a season-high five passes of 20 or more yards in last week’s win over the Falcons. — Daniel Oyefusi

Saints storyline to watch: The Saints had a late forced fumble and interception to seal a win against the Falcons last week, and they hope they can make some of those plays against former quarterback Jameis Winston, who has had five interceptions in his past four starts (two in two starts as a Saint in 2023 and three last week). The Saints heaped praise on Winston as a teammate and leader this week, but Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu, who had an interception last week, also joked, “I’m expecting a shot, first play of the game, Jameis. Throw it up there.” — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: A loss for the Saints will be the franchise’s worst 11-game start to a season since 2005, when they also went 3-8.

Bold prediction: Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore will have 60-plus receiving yards. He had nine targets a week ago and managed only 28 yards, but I expect that target volume to still be there, especially since he might often draw Alontae Taylor, who has allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap this season (third most among slot corners), per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Injuries: Browns | Saints

Fantasy X factor: Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman. Cleveland is coming off a bye with Winston back under center and Tillman as his No. 1 target. The pair will be up against a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts. Tillman has been consistent, scoring 18-plus fantasy points in each of his past three games and racking up 10-plus targets in two of those. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their past six games (they covered last week). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Browns 22, Saints 20
Moody’s pick: Browns 27, Saints 24
Walder’s pick: Browns 30, Saints 23
FPI prediction: CLE, 50.0% (by an average of 0.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Browns GM noncommittal on Watson’s future in Cleveland … How Saints’ salary cap math could impact Carr, veterans … LT Wills: ‘Business decision’ to sit out game backfired

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NYJ -4 (43.5 O/U)

Colts storyline to watch: Quarterback Anthony Richardson returns to the lineup for the Colts, and that could be a boost for Indy’s run game. In the five full games Richardson played this season, the Colts averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 142.4 rushing yards per game and had 28 rushes of 10 yards or longer. The Colts recorded seven of their nine total rushing touchdowns in those five games. Meanwhile, running back Jonathan Taylor has four 100-yard performances in just seven games this season. — Stephen Holder

Jets storyline to watch: The Jets, who missed 20 tackles in last week’s blowout loss to the Cardinals, put a major emphasis on tackling fundamentals in practice. Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich, a former NFL linebacker, gave a tackling presentation to the entire team (yes, even offense). They also practiced in pads more than usual. In the past five games, the Jets have allowed 501 yards after contact, ranking 31st over that span. — Rich Cimini

Stat to know: Jets wide receiver Davante Adams’ 51% catch percentage is the second worst in the NFL since Week 7 among pass catchers with a minimum of 25 targets.

Bold prediction: Richardson will break off a 30-plus-yard run and lead the Colts to victory. Richardson certainly comes with his fair share of variance, but that can work in Indianapolis’ favor, too. And you can usually count on the Jets to beat themselves. — Walder

Injuries: Colts | Jets

Fantasy X factor: Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He hasn’t delivered the fantasy season that managers were hoping for, with just two games with more than 20 fantasy points. However, Rodgers has a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that allows the seventh-most passing yards per game and the fifth-highest completion percentage. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Colts 21, Jets 14
Moody’s pick: Jets 24, Colts 17
Walder’s pick: Colts 23, Jets 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 59.2% (by an average of 3.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Colts bench Flacco, turn back to Richardson at QB … Inside Rodgers’ complicated relationship with the Jets … How does Ulbrich compare to Saleh?

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4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DEN -2.5 (44.5 O/U)

Falcons storyline to watch: The Falcons allow the highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks in the league (70.3%), are tied for worst in quarterback pressure percentage (27.4%) and have the fewest sacks (9). Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has fared much better while not under pressure — completing 70.2%, vs. 43.9% when under duress. — Marc Raimondi

Broncos storyline to watch: The Falcons will be the fourth offense currently ranked in the top 10 that the Broncos have faced this season. Two times (against Tampa and Kansas City), Denver’s defense made life fairly miserable for those offenses, and one offense (Baltimore) put together seven scoring drives. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is seeking to avoid having consecutive games without a passing touchdown for the first time in his career as a starter.

Bold prediction: The Broncos’ defense will score a touchdown. Atlanta’s offense versus Denver’s defense is a strength-on-strength battle, but the Broncos’ defense, which is fourth in EPA per play, is especially good against the pass. — Walder

Injuries: Falcons | Broncos

Fantasy X factor: Nix. The rookie is clearly in full command, and coach Sean Payton continues to impress as a playcaller. Nix has been a reliable fantasy performer, scoring 16 or more points in five of his past six games, including three with 20-plus points. The Falcons give up the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons are 3-1 ATS on the road this season after going 2-7 ATS on the road last season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Falcons 24, Broncos 22
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Falcons 21
Walder’s pick: Broncos 20, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: ATL, 58.1% (by an average of 2.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Falcons back kicker Koo despite 3 missed field goals in loss … Rookie RB Estime could be spark for Broncos’ backfield … Falcons need better starts … Tough loss to Chiefs shows Broncos’ limited margin for error

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4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: SF -6.5 (45.5 O/U)

Seahawks storyline to watch: The tables have turned on an NFC West rivalry the Seahawks used to dominate. They’ve lost six straight regular-season and playoff games to the 49ers by a combined score of 184-96, including a 36-24 defeat in Week 6 that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Seattle could have several key players available Sunday who didn’t play in the first meeting, such as Abraham Lucas, Byron Murphy II, Riq Woolen and trade acquisition Ernest Jones IV. — Brady Henderson

49ers storyline to watch: Christian McCaffrey’s return last week helped him knock some rust off before facing a team against which he has had great success. McCaffrey has averaged 163 scrimmage yards per game in six meetings with Seattle and reached 125 in all. If he gets to 125 again Sunday, he’d tie Jim Brown (vs. Philadelphia) as the only player in NFL history to post 125-plus scrimmage yards against one team seven consecutive times. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is 8-2 in his career against division opponents and has a 76.7 QBR in those games. That’s the second-highest QBR by any quarterback since the metric was introduced in 2006 (minimum of 10 starts).

Bold prediction: Jones will record a sack. He’s a great blitzer but wasn’t used to rushing the passer much in Tennessee. Last week he recorded a season-high 10 pass rushes, and I expect coach Mike Macdonald will want to keep deploying him like that. — Walder

Injuries: Seahawks | 49ers

Fantasy X factor: Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III. He has seen a dip in fantasy production lately. However, the 49ers allowed a combined 36.7 fantasy points to Buccaneers running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving in Week 10, showing vulnerability to the run. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The 49ers are 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS in five meetings since 2022. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 24
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Seahawks 20
Walder’s pick: 49ers 29, Seahawks 27
FPI prediction: SF, 69.1% (by an average of 6.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Seahawks activate Lucas from PUP, put Fant on IR … McCaffrey’s return has 49ers returning to roots … Seahawks waive leading tackler Dodson in ILB shake-up … 49ers’ Lenoir gets 5-year, $92M extension

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4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -2 (45.5 O/U)

Chiefs storyline to watch: In seven career games against the Chiefs, counting three in the playoffs, quarterback Josh Allen has 16 touchdown passes, three interceptions and a QBR of 74. Are the Chiefs capable of keeping him from another big game this time, even if Allen is throwing to a group of receivers depleted by injuries? In the past two weeks, the Chiefs put up little resistance against Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield and Denver’s Bo Nix. — Adam Teicher

Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills’ defense continue to limit the Chiefs’ offense in the regular season? The Bills have held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per game in four regular-season meetings since 2020. Taking the ball away is a point of emphasis for this defense and could be the key to success. The Bills have 12 straight games with at least one takeaway, the second-longest active streak in the NFL after the Lions (13). — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Bills have won five straight games; Buffalo’s plus-61 scoring margin during the win streak is the third highest by any team in the NFL over that span, trailing only the Lions (plus-91) and the Eagles (plus-82)

Bold prediction: Bills cornerback Christian Benford will pick off quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Benford is playing great this season. In fact, no outside cornerback has allowed fewer yards per coverage snap (0.6) than he has, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Part of that is because he’s allowing fewer targets than average (13%), but it’s also that he has a minus-9% completion percentage allowed over expectation. — Walder

Injuries: Chiefs | Bills

Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. Kansas City is first in time of possession (33:01), which means we should see a lot of Hunt. He has had 20-plus touches in each of his past four games, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in three of them. The Bills’ defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their past four conference games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bills 29, Chiefs 27
Moody’s pick: Bills 25, Chiefs 23
Walder’s pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 53.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: All the strange — and lucky — ways the Chiefs have gone 9-0 … Bills’ offensive stars called these plays for themselves — here’s how they worked out

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: LAC -1.5 (47.5 O/U)

Bengals storyline to watch: Can quarterback Joe Burrow keep attacking split-safety looks? This season, Burrow has the fifth-highest yards per attempt (8.4) against those safety shells, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The Chargers use the split-safety formation on 58.1% of opponent dropbacks, the second-highest clip in the league. — Ben Baby

Chargers storyline to watch: Sunday will be the first big test for the Chargers’ defense, which ranks first in the NFL in points allowed per game (13.1). The Bengals are one of the NFL’s best offenses, averaging the sixth-most points per game this year (26.1). — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: A win for the Bengals would increase their chances of making the playoffs from 37% to 52%, according to ESPN Analytics.

Bold prediction: Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston will record 80-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. That’s because he will most often line up in front of Cam Taylor-Britt. The Bengals cornerback has allowed 2.0 yards per coverage snap this year, second most among his position, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Injuries: Bengals | Chargers

Fantasy X factor: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have leaned more on Herbert and the passing game after the bye. He has had 30 or more pass attempts in three of his past five games. It’s important to note that Herbert has scored at least 19 fantasy points in three consecutive games. The Bengals allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road, while the Chargers are 4-0 ATS at home this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bengals 25, Chargers 23
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Bengals 23
Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Chargers 24
FPI prediction: LAC, 52.1% (by an average of 0.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Childhood photo links Zac Taylor, Jim Harbaugh before Bengals-Chargers … Do the Chargers have the NFL’s best defense? We’re about to find out … Bengals coach to advocate over potential late hits of Joe Burrow

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Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: HOU -7.5 (47.5 O/U)

Texans storyline to watch: The Texans are averaging 119 rushing yards per game, fueled by running back Joe Mixon, who has the third-highest average per game (98.3). The Cowboys are allowing 152.1 rushing yards per game, so this could lead to a huge night from Mixon. Also, wideout Nico Collins (hamstring) returns this week after missing the past five games, which should open up more running lanes for Mixon. — DJ Bien-Aime

Cowboys storyline to watch: Can the second week of Cooper Rush as the starting quarterback be better than the first? He averaged 1.96 yards per attempt last week against the Eagles, so it needs to be. The Cowboys are looking for their first win of the season at AT&T Stadium (0-4) .They have had three home losses by at least 25 points, matching the most in team history. The Cowboys have not lost five straight home games since 2015, when they finished 4-12. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: The Texans’ 15 takeaways since Week 6 leads the NFL. Houston produced only three takeaways over Weeks 1-5.

Bold prediction: The Cowboys will fail to cross midfield in the first half even with the sun having already set. Instead, their biggest problem will be themselves. And part of the equation here is that Houston will run all over them and own time of possession, barely giving Rush much time to work anyway. — Walder

Injuries: Texans | Cowboys

Fantasy X factor: Mixon. Houston’s passing game could get a boost with Collins back, but the Cowboys’ defense remains vulnerable against the run. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, and its defensive front ranks 30th in run stop win rate (27.1%). See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight straight). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Texans 30, Cowboys 9
Moody’s pick: Texans 28, Cowboys 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 30, Cowboys 6
FPI prediction: HOU, 71.1% (by an average of 8.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: How bad is Cowboys’ offense? Worst start in McCarthy’s career … What Prescott’s season-ending surgery would mean for Cowboys