Am reușit. Este săptămâna 17, care este săptămâna de campionat în majoritatea ligilor, iar dacă citiți asta, probabil că înseamnă că concurați pentru premiul final.
Până acum, probabil că nu ai multe întrebări despre gama ta. Probabil vei merge cu jucătorii care te-au ajutat să ajungi în acest punct, ceea ce are sens. Aceștia sunt băieții tăi și vrei să treci linia de sosire cu jucătorii care te-au ajutat să avansezi.
Dar cheia pentru a câștiga un campionat Fantasy, în afară de noroc, este să joci meciurile potrivite. Așa că nu trece cu vederea pe cineva de pe banca ta care ar putea fi o opțiune mai bună decât un starter care se luptă.
Amintiți-vă, adversarul are și o listă încărcată, așa că veți avea nevoie de toate punctele pe care le puteți obține. Și, să sperăm, să nu suferiți nicio accidentare în mijlocul unui joc. Sper că până ajungem luni seara să sărbătorești în mare măsură.
Felicitări pentru că ai ajuns la meciul de campionat. Succes în meciul din Săptămâna 17 și sărbători fericite tuturor
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Jayden Daniels va câștiga Rookie of the Year, dar Bo Nix a făcut din aceasta o cursă distractivă. Iar Nix s-a transformat într-un fundaș Fantasy solid în acest sezon, cu cel puțin încă o ieșire importantă în săptămâna 17.
Îmi place Nix ca un fundaș din top 10 Fantasy cu meciul său de la Cincinnati. Acesta este un joc uriaș pentru ambele echipe, iar dacă Broncos câștigă sau egalează împotriva Bengals, atunci ei câștigă un loc în playoff.
O înfrângere va face lucrurile interesante pentru Denver, Cincinnati și, eventual, Indianapolis și Miami, în săptămâna 18, dar să ne îngrijorăm mai întâi cu privire la acest joc. Și Nix are șansa de a merge împotriva Bengals.
Cincinnati ocupă locul 6 în cele mai multe puncte Fantasy permise pentru fundașii oponenți, iar cinci fundași în acest sezon au marcat cel puțin 28,4 puncte Fantasy împotriva lui Bengals. Cincinnati permite o medie de 22,7 puncte Fantasy pe joc pentru poziție.
Nix a marcat cel puțin 23,4 puncte Fantasy în trei din ultimele cinci jocuri ale sale și a marcat cel puțin 20,1 puncte Fantasy în trei meciuri de drum la rând la Kansas City, Las Vegas și Chargers. Nu o să-i fie frică de acest moment.
Nu m-ar surprinde dacă Bengalii vor câștiga jocul, dar mă aștept la lovituri de departajare. Ar trebui să fie distractiv să-l urmărești pe Nix înfruntându-se cap la cap împotriva lui Joe Burrow. Și Nix probabil nu va rămâne cu mult în urmă în ceea ce privește producția.
Până acum a fost un sezon de începători grozav pentru Nix în fantezie și realitate. Și ar trebui să-i ajute pe managerii Fantasy să câștige un potențial campionat în Săptămâna 17.
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Dolphins DST ar putea fi o opțiune Fantasy pentru câștigarea ligii în săptămâna 17 împotriva lui Browns, cu Dorian Thompson-Robinson ca fundaș. A fost demis de cinci ori în săptămâna 16 împotriva Bengals și a avut două interceptări. Cleveland a jucat, de asemenea, împotriva Cincinnati și a marcat doar șase puncte. Miami are șapte sack-uri în ultimele două meciuri împotriva lui Houston și San Francisco, cu două turnover-uri în intervalul respectiv, iar Dolphins au acordat doar 37 de puncte în total împotriva lui Texans și Colts. Aceasta ar trebui să fie o săptămână mare pentru Dolphins DST în săptămâna 17.
Colts (la NYG)
Berbeci (vs. ARI)
Încărcătoare (la NE)
Șoimi (la WAS)
Falcons DST a fost fantastic în ultimele două săptămâni împotriva Raiders și Giants cu meciuri împotriva Desmond Ridder și Drew Lock. Acum, șoimii trebuie să-l înfrunte pe Jayden Daniels și va fi greu să ai încredere în apărarea Atlanta în acest meci. În timp ce comandanții au avut cinci turnover-uri împotriva Eagles în săptămâna 16, Washington a marcat totuși 36 de puncte, iar Daniels a fost demis o singură dată. Probabil că Falcons DST v-a ajutat să avansați în săptămâna 17, dar aceasta este o săptămână bună pentru a găsi un alt DST având în vedere confruntarea.
Fantasy Football este totul despre meciuri. Chiar dacă ți-ai pregătit echipa cu anumite speranțe și intenții, deciziile tale săptămânale de formație nu ar trebui să fie determinate de ordinea în care ți-ai ales jucătorii. Trebuie să verifici cine joacă jucătorii tăi și să te asiguri că ai băieții potriviți în – – și băieții nepotriviți.
Este prea devreme pentru a fi absolut siguri care confruntări vor fi ușoare și care vor fi dure, dar putem lua niște presupuneri educate bazate pe personal sănătos, scheme defensive, antecedente și detalii cheie ale infracțiunilor. Lucrurile pe care le știm ne pot ajuta să minimizăm impactul lucrurilor pe care nu le știm. Acest lucru ar trebui să conducă la luarea unor decizii mai bune.
Vom parcurge fiecare joc și vom evidenția jucătorii care nu sunt evidente care pornesc și stau (pentru că nu trebuie să vi se spună să începeți Derrick Henry). Ar trebui să vă simțiți mai confortabil să începeți sau să așezați jucători pe baza informațiilor oferite și să vă simțiți confortabil cu formația dvs. Fantasy înainte de începerea jocurilor este cel mai bun sentiment din lume.
Mai mult conținut din Săptămâna 17:
Atacul lui Kansas City are o mulțime de jucători solidi care merită timp de joc, dar Xavier Worthy a fost cel care a produs cele mai multe puncte Fantasy (16,6 PPR per joc) și a obținut cele mai multe atingeri printre non-RB (8,3 pe joc) peste ultimele trei săptămâni. În special, adâncimea medie a aruncării (ADOT) a lui Worthy a scăzut sub 9,0 metri în fiecare dintre ultimele sale trei jocuri, făcându-l o țintă mai ușoară mai aproape de linia de joc. Asta i-a redus capturile explozive, dar este încă la câțiva metri după amenințarea prin captură, cu mai multe ținte din zona roșie și din zona finală decât (înghițit) Travis Kelce. El se va confrunta cu aceeași apărare a lui Steelers care s-a străduit să țină pasul cu receptorul neîncrezător Zay Flowers sâmbăta trecută și cu DeVonta Smith în săptămâna 15. Ar trebui să fii încurajat de rata țintă pe traseu a lui Worthy de 24,2% împotriva unui om-la- man de acoperire, pe care apărarea Steelers s-a sprijinit în șapte jocuri de la săptămâna lor de pază. Nu m-aș sfia să mă sprijin pe Worthy ca joc flexibil săptămâna aceasta, în orice format.
Începerile evidente: Travis Kelce
ÎNCEPE: Patrick Mahomes (start low-end), George Pickens (nr. 2 WR), Chiefs DST
SĂSĂ: Russell Wilson, Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Pat Freiermuth, Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine, Calvin Austin, Steelers DST
Pierderea veteranului gardian Shaq Mason este o altă problemă importantă pentru o linie O texană care a fost o slăbiciune pentru echipă tot sezonul. A influențat chiar și modul în care funcționează CJ Stroud — anul trecut a fost sfidător împotriva grăbirilor de trecere, anul acesta este puțin mai tentativ și se vede în rata de finalizare de 47% și ratingul QB de 74,9 când este presat. Absența lui Mason se va simți și în jocul de alergare, care a fost o mizerie pentru texani de când Joe Mixon s-a rănit la gleznă. Acesta este tocmai la timp pentru o confruntare de coșmar împotriva Ravens, care se laudă cu o medie de 3,5 în cursă și o rată de 5,7% de a permite mai mult de 10 jocuri în curte în sezon. Ei au, de asemenea, o cursă feroce de trecere care a obținut 19 sacuri la o rată de presiune de 37,9% în ultimele șase jocuri. Luați în considerare accidentarea de la sfârșitul sezonului a lui Tank Dell și este greu să fiți cu adevărat entuziasmați pentru orice jucător texan în afara lui Nico Collins.
ÎNCEPE: Joe Mixon (nr. 2 RB), Mark Andrews, Ravens DST, Dalton Schultz (începător low-end)
FLEX: Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman
SĂSĂ: CJ Stroud, John Metchie, Isaiah Likely, Robert Woods, Dare Ogunbowale, cel mai nou texan Diontae Johnson, Texans DST
ÎNCEPE: Caleb Williams, Geno Smith (începător la limită), Zach Charbonnet (atâta timp cât Ken Walker este eliminat), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (top-15 WR), Keenan Allen, DJ Moore (nr. 2 PPR WR), D'Andre Swift , Seahawks DST
Începerile evidente: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
ÎNCEPE: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton (nr. 1 WR)
SĂSĂ: Javonte Williams (disperare RB), Audric Estime, Adam Trautman, Andrei Iosivas, Devaughn Vele, Mike Gesicki, Bengals DST (limită DST), Broncos DST
Începerile evidente: De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill (nr. 2 WR)
ÎNCEPE: Jerome Ford (nr. 2 RB), Jonnu Smith, David Njoku, Dolphins DST
SĂSĂ: Tua Tagovailoa (începător la limită), Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jerry Jeudy, Malik Washington, Elijah Moore, Raheem Mostert, D'Onta Foreman, Browns DST
Începerile evidente: Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown
Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray și Anthony Richardson au marcat cu toții cel puțin 22 de puncte Fantasy în săptămâna 16. Există o șansă decentă dacă îi începeți în semifinala Fantasy Football, aveți o decizie de luat în săptămâna 17. Și există șanse mari dacă Sunteți pe lista unuia dintre acești trei fundași pe care v-ați obișnuit să luați decizii dificile de formație.
Pentru Săptămâna 17, preferatul meu dintre cei trei este Murray. El a fost cel mai bun dintre cei trei până acum în acest sezon, cu o medie de 19 FPPG și are cea mai lungă istorie de producție de start în Fantasy. Murray se confruntă cu o apărare Rams pe care a incendiat-o la începutul acestui an în valoare de 34,5 puncte Fantasy. Desigur, Murray are și dezavantajul de a șase interceptări și doar patru TD-uri de trecere în ultimele sale cinci jocuri combinate. De asemenea, nu știi niciodată cum va răspunde o echipă în săptămâna după ce a fost eliminată din playoff, așa cum tocmai au fost Murray's Cardinals.
Williams este al doilea favorit al meu pentru Săptămâna 17, când se confruntă cu Seattle joi seară. Din săptămâna 12 el este numărul opt QB în Fantasy, cu o medie de 23,6 FPPG. Are cel puțin 27 de metri în cursă în cinci din ultimele șase jocuri, dar încă nu a marcat un touchdown la sol în tot sezonul. Totalul implicit de 20 de puncte pentru Bears săi joi seară este cel mai mic dintre acești trei fundași și evidențiază riscul de a începe Williams.
Vorbind de risc, nu sunt sigur că a existat un QB mai boom/făcut în Fantasy decât Anthony Richardson în acest sezon. Săptămâna trecută a fost a patra din sezon, cu cel puțin 22 de puncte Fantasy. De asemenea, are șase jocuri cu mai puțin de 15 puncte Fantasy. Nici măcar nu l-aș pune pe Richardson în aceeași clasă cu Murray și Williams dacă nu ar fi fost alegerea lui împotriva New York Giants. Această confruntare este motivul pentru care Colts a lui Richardson au un total implicit de 24,25 și motivul pentru care Richardson încă se clasează ca un top-12 QB la limită.
Să trecem la restul previzualizării:
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Managerii de fotbal fantezie vor încheia săptămâna campionatului cu o confruntare esențială între Detroit Lions și San Francisco 49ers. (AP Foto/Kamil Krzaczynski)
Felicitări, manager de fotbal fantastic – ai făcut-o! Dacă ați ajuns până aici și citiți clasamentul de fotbal fantasy din Săptămâna 17, pare un pariu sigur să presupuneți că încă jucați pentru ceva din liga ta. Deși nu toate echipele au încă ceva mare de jucat, ceea ce atenuează (doar puțin) lista de joc, dar, din fericire, liga a încheiat săptămâna 17 cu un meci absolut între Detroit Lions și San Francisco 49ers.
Lions au un jucător clasat în primele șapte poziții respective la QB, RB, WR, TE și K; Între timp, cei de la 49ers au dezamăgit, dar, fără îndoială, oferă încă un potențial de boom cu George Kittle, Jauan Jennings & Co. Vor fi ambele echipe la înălțimea potențialului lor, cu un campionat fantastic pe linie, totuși?
Pentru a vă ajuta să vă stabiliți formațiile fantasy săptămâna aceasta, echipa noastră este aici pentru a vă ajuta cu clasamentele de fotbal fantasy din Săptămâna 17… sperăm, să vă conducă la un râvnit campionat de fotbal fantasy.
Mult succes în meciurile tale fantezie din Săptămâna 17!
Următorul este un extras din cea mai recentă ediție a buletinului informativ Yahoo de fotbal fantastic, Get to the Points! Daca iti place ce vezi, te poti abona gratuit aici.
Felicitările sunt în ordine – dacă încă ne citești, atunci probabil că ești în jocul tău de campionat. Savurați asta. Nu este ușor să ajungi aici. Încă nu am terminat, totuși!
Pentru a vă menține listele în formă în cea mai importantă săptămână a fanteziei, suntem aici pentru a vă oferi câteva sfaturi finale pentru a vă ajuta să treceți peste sezonul sărbătorilor – și săptămâna 17 – inclusiv patru dormitori în ziua de Crăciun de luat în considerare.
🎁 Nu există cadou ca darul sfatului
Cu siguranță ați ajuns la acest punct luând decizii bune și vrem să continuați să faceți asta. Dar luați în considerare și câteva nuanțe ale acestei săptămâni ciudate 17.
Programul este foarte neortodox
Există 16 jocuri în cinci zile diferite. Două meciuri miercuri (!), ziua de Crăciun. Jocul obișnuit de joi. Trei meciuri de sâmbătă. Nouă meciuri duminică, un meci luni.
Amintiți-vă că oricine începeți la începutul săptămânii aparține unui loc static (RB, WR, TE) spre deosebire de un punct flexibil, chiar dacă teoretic se plasează ca „flex” pe diagrama dvs. de adâncime. Acest lucru vă oferă flexibilitate maximă atunci când luați decizii ulterioare.
Asigurați-vă că dați listei dvs. o verificare rapidă dimineața de Crăciun pentru a vedea ce ați obținut prin derogări peste noapte. S-ar putea să trebuiască să joci unii dintre acești tipi miercuri.
Acest conținut încorporat nu este disponibil în regiunea dvs.
Abonați-vă la Prognoza Yahoo Fantasy pe Podcasturi Apple, Spotify, YouTube sau oriunde ai asculta.
Fiți gata de tăieturi la mijlocul săptămânii
Odată ce un jucător are un joc care vine și pleacă, îl poți tăia în majoritatea ligilor dacă ar fi pe banca ta – și ar trebui să faci asta. Obțineți o asigurare suplimentară pentru săptămâna târziu. Poate că decideți să nu jucați Jaylen Warren de Crăciun, ceea ce ar putea avea sens pentru lista dvs. După acel joc, tăiați-l pentru cineva care joacă mai târziu, chiar dacă este doar o piesă de asigurare. S-ar putea să aveți nevoie de un caddy legat de accidentări pentru unul dintre jocurile ulterioare, de exemplu.
Dacă scorul devine deformat, luați în considerare Strategii David/Goliath
După ce meciurile de sâmbătă vor fi încheiate, șase rezultate vor fi în cărți, aproape 40% din săptămână finalizată. Dacă confruntarea dvs. în acest moment este foarte neregulată, s-ar putea să doriți să luați în considerare acest lucru în viitoarele apeluri de start/ședință. Dacă sunteți un favorit puternic, virați pentru podea, siguranță. Dacă ești un dezamăgit major, gândește-te la jocurile pozitive și potențiale corelate. Vă rugăm să rețineți că această schimbare se aplică numai dacă procentele sunt deformate într-o direcție. Într-un joc strâns disputat, luați deciziile convenționale pe care le faceți în mod normal.
Dormitori de Crăciun
Cu două meciuri în ziua de Crăciun, m-am gândit că ar fi distractiv să ofer potențiali dormitori pentru toate cele patru echipe. Nu-i forța pe acești tipi să intre în lista ta, desigur. Ia decizii bune, pilot.
TE Pat Freiermuth, Steelers
El a avut o serie de trei aterizări în săptămâna 16, dar acoperirea cusăturii din Kansas City a fost neregulată tot anul. Doar trei capete strânse au mai multe capturi de touchdown decât Freiermuth în acest sezon.
RB Kareem Hunt, șefi
El a refuzat să plece chiar și cu revenirea lui Isiah Pacheco, adunând 29 de atingeri și 128 de yarzi totale în ultimele două săptămâni. Acesta va fi, probabil, un backfield foarte fierbinte pentru moment.
TE Dalton Schultz, texani
În ultimul timp a avut loc un raliu, cu două touchdown-uri și 12 prinderi în ultimele trei jocuri. Tank Dell nu va fi disponibil, ceea ce ar putea duce la o creștere a oportunităților lui Schultz.
WR Rashod Bateman, Ravens
Anul acesta au apărut o grămadă de ținte cu volum redus, cu atingere mare (Quentin Johnston, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine). Bateman cântă, de asemenea, acea muzică – de obicei primește între 3-5 ținte, dar parcurge traseele de pe teren și poartă întotdeauna echitate de touchdown.
Acum du-te și termină sezonul tău de campionat. Ne vom îngrijora pentru traseul paradei săptămâna viitoare.
Dacă citiți asta, probabil că înseamnă că ați ajuns la meciul de campionat, așa că felicitări. Acum, să terminăm treaba.
Săptămâna 17 este puțin ciudată, cu două meciuri de miercuri, un joc de joi și trei jocuri de sâmbătă. Va trebui să te asiguri că echipa ta este corectă, cu o mulțime de părți în mișcare atunci când vine vorba de accidentări.
De exemplu, George Pickens (ischio-coarda) ar putea reveni pentru meciul de miercuri împotriva Kansas City, dar Justice Hill (conmoție) ar putea fi eliminat la Houston. Din păcate, știm că Tank Dell (genunchi) este scos pentru restul sezonului.
Kenneth Walker III (gleznă) ar putea rata meciul de joi de la Chicago, ceea ce este evident un impuls uriaș pentru Zach Charbonnet. Și, pentru sâmbătă, vom aștepta actualizări despre James Conner (genunchi) la Rams, Jaleel McLaughlin (cvadriceps) la Cincinnati și, eventual, dacă JK Dobbins (genunchi) se poate întoarce din rezerva accidentată la New England.
Alte accidentări de monitorizat pentru duminică și luni includ situația de quarterback din Philadelphia cu Jalen Hurts (comoție) și Kenny Pickett (coaste) și situația de fundaș din Cleveland cu Jameis Winston (umăr) și Dorian Thompson-Robinson (vițel). Evident, ne-ar plăcea să vedem Hurts împotriva Dallas și Winston împotriva Miami.
De asemenea, trebuie să urmărim ce se întâmplă cu Alvin Kamara (inghinal) vs. Las Vegas și, Isaac Guerendo (ischio-coarda) vs. Detroit la running back, Drake London (ischio-coarbe) la Washington și Jaylen Waddle (genunchi) la Cleveland la receptor, și David Njoku (genunchi) vs. Miami și Cade Otton (genunchi) vs. Carolina la tight end.
Sper că ai avansat cu o listă sănătoasă, dar s-ar putea să fie nevoie să faci câteva ajustări pentru jocul de campionat din Săptămâna 17. Și de aceea ești aici.
Mult succes cu mișcările tale de renunțare. Și mult succes cu formațiile tale în Săptămâna 17.
Nota editorului: Pentru această coloană de renunțare, ne uităm în principal la jucători înscriși în mai puțin de 65% din ligile CBS Sports.
Verificați dacă sunt disponibile în ligile superficiale: Caleb Williams (72 la sută înregistrat), Anthony Richardson (72 la sută) și Geno Smith (71 la sută). Williams a marcat cel puțin 18,1 puncte Fantasy în trei din ultimele sale cinci jocuri, inclusiv trei ieșiri cu cel puțin 26,8 puncte. Îmi place de el ca titular de nivel scăzut în Săptămâna 17 împotriva Seattle. … Richardson a marcat 22,2 puncte Fantasy în Săptămâna 16 împotriva Tennessee și acum a alergat pentru cel puțin 46 de yarzi în patru jocuri la rând, inclusiv trei touchdown-uri în grabă în acea perioadă. Merită să fie folosit ca starter low-end în Săptămâna 17 la Giants. … Smith a marcat 27,4 puncte Fantasy în Săptămâna 16 împotriva Minnesota, care a fost primul său meci cu mai mult de 20 de puncte din Săptămâna 9. Ar trebui să aibă șansa pentru o altă ieșire de calitate în Săptămâna 17 la Chicago, care este un plus.
Verificați dacă sunt disponibile în ligile superficiale: Jaylen Warren (77 la sută înregistrate), Javonte Williams (76 la sută), Tank Bigsby (74 la sută), Alexander Mattison (72 la sută), JK Dobbins (71 la sută) și Kendre Miller (69 la sută). Warren a marcat 14,2 puncte PPR în săptămâna 16 la Baltimore și a marcat cel puțin 9,2 puncte PPR în șase din ultimele șapte jocuri. Le va fi greu pentru Steelers să alerge pe Chiefs în săptămâna 17, așa că Warren ar putea ajuta în jocul de pase. Și are cel puțin patru capturi în trei din ultimele șase jocuri. … Williams a marcat 12,3 puncte PPR în săptămâna 16 la Chargers cu McLaughlin în afara, iar Williams a avut șapte capturi pentru 29 de metri pe 11 ținte. El ar putea fi o opțiune flexibilă în săptămâna 17 la Bengals, mai ales dacă McLaughlin este din nou eliminat. … Bigsby a marcat un touchdown în săptămâna 16 la Las Vegas, dar a pierdut și un balon și a terminat cu 10,1 puncte PPR. Acum a marcat un touchdown în două dintre ultimele trei jocuri ale sale, inclusiv în Săptămâna 14 la Tennessee, când a avut 18 porturi pentru 55 de metri și o capturare pentru 7 metri pe o singură țintă. El se confruntă din nou cu Titanii în săptămâna 17 și merită să fie folosit ca flex. … Mattison a avut un total de 16 atingeri (patru prinderi pe șapte ținte) în primul joc fără Sincere McCormick (gleznă) în Săptămâna 16 împotriva Jacksonville și acum se confruntă cu Saints în Săptămâna 17. Mattison va continua să împartă porturile cu Ameer Abdullah, dar Mattison merită să fie folosit ca flex la New Orleans. … Dobbins s-ar putea întoarce din rezerva accidentată în săptămâna 17 la New England, iar dacă se va întâmpla asta, merită să înceapă ca alergător nr. 2 în toate ligile. El a ratat ultimele patru meciuri din cauza unei accidentări la genunchi. … Miller a fost rău în săptămâna 16 la Green Bay, cu opt porturi pentru 15 yarzi și două capturi pentru 16 yarzi pe două ținte, dar toți Sfinții au fost îngrozitori luni seara. Ei au o confruntare mai bună în Săptămâna 17 împotriva Las Vegas, iar Miller poate fi un flexibil dacă Kamara rămâne eliminat.
Verificați dacă sunt disponibile în ligile superficiale: Adam Thielen (79 la sută listat), Josh Downs (78 la sută), Romeo Doubs (66 la sută și Rome Odunze (65 la sută). Thielen a marcat cel puțin 15,3 puncte PPR în trei din ultimele patru jocuri ale sale, inclusiv 23,9 puncte PPR în Săptămâna 13 împotriva Tampa Bay El joacă din nou cu Buccaneers în săptămâna 17, iar Thielen ar trebui considerat titular în toate ligile. … Downs a avut trei capturi pentru 61 de metri și un touchdown la patru ținte în săptămâna 16 împotriva Tennessee, iar acum a marcat cel puțin 12 puncte PPR în cinci din ultimele șapte jocuri. Are o confruntare favorabilă în săptămâna 17 la Giants , iar Downs ar trebui să fie considerat un receptor al 3-lea Fantasy în toate ligile… Doubs a avut un joc liniștit luni seară împotriva New Orleans cu două capturi pentru 20 iarzi pe trei ținte, dar nu a fost nevoie de el într-o victorie în exploatare săptămâna, se pare că Odunze este la un pas de un joc mare și a avut patru capturi pentru 77 de metri pe șapte ținte în săptămâna 16 împotriva Detroit. Are cel puțin șase ținte în opt din ultimele nouă meciuri ale sale și ar putea fi primitorul numărul 3 Fantasy în ligi mai profunde în săptămâna 17 împotriva Seattle.
Adăugați în această ordine:
Săptămâna 17 Lista priorităților de renunțare
Leziuni: David Njoku (genunchi), Cade Otton (genunchi) și Will Dissly (umăr).
Verificați dacă sunt disponibile în ligile superficiale: Zach Ertz (77 la sută înregistrat) și Hunter Henry (72 la sută). Ertz a avut un joc slab în săptămâna 16 împotriva Philadelphia cu o captură pentru 12 yarzi pe două ținte, dar înainte de a suferi o comoție în săptămâna 15 la New Orleans, el a marcat cel puțin 12,5 puncte PPR în trei jocuri la rând. Încă îmi place Ertz ca titular de nivel scăzut în toate ligile în Săptămâna 16 împotriva Atlanta. … Henry a avut patru capturi pentru 39 de metri și un touchdown pe nouă ținte în săptămâna 16 la Buffalo, iar acum a marcat cel puțin 9,4 puncte PPR în opt din ultimele 10 jocuri ale sale, inclusiv șase ieșiri cu cel puțin 12,3 puncte PPR. El nu are o confruntare ușoară în Săptămâna 17 împotriva Chargers, dar este un joc de răzbunare pentru Henry, care este unul dintre cele două ligi.
Adăugați în această ordine:
Săptămâna 17 Lista priorităților de renunțare
Streameri din săptămâna 17 DST
Delfinii (49 la sută listați) la CLE
Berbeci (22 la sută înregistrate) vs. ARI
Seahawks (33 la sută listați) la CHI
Raiders (8 la sută listați) la NR
Kicker streamers
Cine ar trebui să începi și să stai săptămâna aceasta? Și care fundaș surprinzător te-ar putea conduce la victorie? Vizitați SportsLine acum pentru a obține proiecții Fantasy pentru Săptămâna 16 pentru fiecare poziție, plus pentru a vedea care fundaș iese de nicăieri pentru a sparge top 10, toate de la modelul care i-a depășit pe experți în mare măsură.
Bun venit la Săptămâna Campionatului, tuturor. Am reușit. Hai să câștigăm un inel.
Dacă aveți nevoie de un ultim impuls de la firul de renunțare, suntem aici pentru a vă ajuta. În fiecare săptămână, acordăm prioritate primelor ridicări potențiale care rămân disponibile în cel puțin 50% din ligile Yahoo. Este timpul să goliți portofelul FAB, prieteni, pentru că acele resurse nu se vor reporta în 2025. Cheltuiți tot ce este necesar pentru a obține tot ce aveți nevoie.
Aleargă înapoi
Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints (46%)
Miller se îndreaptă spre meciul de luni seară cu Green Bay în calitate de alergător evident pentru New Orleans, cu Alvin Kamara în afara unei accidentări inghinale. Bineînțeles, fiind cel clar prezentat nimic for the Saints în zilele noastre nu garantează producția de fantezie, deoarece acea echipă se bazează pe copii de rezervă la fiecare punct de abilități ofensive. Va fi dezordonat în ultimele săptămâni pentru această echipă.
Cea mai mare parte a atracției lui Miller este în rolul său proiectat, dar el a arătat de fapt solid de când a fost eliberat de pe insula îndepărtată și ostilă, unde fostul antrenor principal Dennis Allen îl trimisese să trăiască în exil. Miller s-a repezit pentru 78 de yarzi pe 19 porturi în săptămânile 14-15, cu un touchdown impresionant de pile-driving inclus. El este un potențial flexibil în meciul de acasă cu Raiders.
Alexander Mattison și Ameer Abdullah, Las Vegas Raiders (48% și 23%)
Mattison a candidat în funcția de șef al comitetului de backfield pentru Raiders duminică, cu Abdullah nu departe. Mattison a terminat cu 56 de yarzi în total la 16 atingeri, făcându-și drum în zona finală (cu asistență) la începutul jocului. Abdullah a livrat 85 de iarzi de scrimmage la 12 atingeri, marcând un TD de la intrarea liberă în al patrulea sfert. Niciunul dintre jucători nu are un stil foarte mare, dar ambii sunt capabili să primească amenințări și alergători de serviciu.
Las Vegas se îndreaptă spre o confruntare cu New Orleans, un joc care ar trebui să fie atât dezordonat, cât și glorios de haotic. Cu Sincere McCormick și Zamir White acum pe IR, Mattison și Abdullah vor continua să se transforme în spate primar pentru o ofensă care este viciată, dar nu nedistractiv.
Diverse alte adaugă RB:
Gus Edwards este aproape definiția unui jucător TD-or-bust, dar el a fost un vizitator frecvent în zona finală în ultimele săptămâni. El a făcut o pereche de apeluri la domiciliu joi seară, în timp ce a câștigat un record de 71 de metri la 15 atingeri. Cu toate acestea, JK Dobbins este eligibil să revină în săptămâna 17 la New England, așa că să nu presupunem că Edwards va continua să vadă atingeri cu două cifre.
Michael Carter a fost forțat să joace un rol important duminică după ieșirea nefericită a lui James Conner din cauza accidentării. Fondul Arizonei a rămas practic fără idei bune, cu Conner (genunchi), Trey Benson (gleznă) și Emari Demercado (back-IR) toți răniți. Încă nu putem spune exact ce spate ar putea fi disponibile sâmbătă împotriva lui Rams, dar Carter va fi printre ei. Probabil că una dintre echipele rămase din finala ligii tale de consolare îl poate folosi, dar evident că nu este un titular ideal pentru echipele care se confruntă la titlu.
Receptoare largi și capete strânse
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (45%)
McMillan ne-a dus într-o plimbare sălbatică duminică seara, prinzând cinci pase pentru 57 de metri și un scor, lăsând totodată câteva puncte de fantezie pe teren.
Imaginați-vă că îl începeți pe Baker Mayfield în semifinale și pierzând, deoarece acest potențial scor profund a devenit o interceptare:
Nu este ideal.
În ciuda acestei secvențe nefericite, McMillan a reușit totuși să atragă cea de-a cincea sa primire TD din sezon și a patra în ultimele sale trei jocuri. El este ținta nr. 2 clară în jocul de pase al lui Tampa Bay în acest moment, probabil că se îndreaptă către alte ocazii de 7-10 în meciul obligatoriu cu Carolina. Sterling Shepard a ieșit duminică cu o problemă cu ischio-coardei, iar Cade Otton a ratat meciul cu o accidentare la genunchi, așa că este probabil că McMillan va fi un primitor recomandat în săptămâna 17.
Hollywood Brown, Kansas City Chiefs (32%)
Oh, hei, bun venit în sezonul fantastic 2024, Hollywood. Mai bine mai târziu decât niciodată.
Kansas City avea o nevoie uriașă de un separator de încredere și amenințare verticală și au reușit să adauge unul dintre cei mai buni jocului în camera de primire la sfârșitul lunii decembrie. Brown a prins cinci pase pentru 45 de metri la opt ținte împotriva lui Houston sâmbătă, transformându-se imediat în situații critice de a treia și a patra jos. Să ne amintim că se întoarce de la o accidentare la umăr, nu de la genunchi sau la picior, așa că nu există îngrijorări cu privire la pierderea explozivității.
Brown este un jucător de 27 de ani care are deja un sezon de 90 de capturi, 1.000 de iarzi în CV-ul său din NFL, iar acum este atașat de un atac de trecere condus de Patrick Mahomes. El merită considerație WR3/flex în meciul viitor de la Pittsburgh.
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Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans (6%)
Tineri manageri de fantezie, vă rugăm să vă întrebați părinții despre Jared Cook, un domn care obișnuia să joace finalul tight end pentru Titani. La începutul carierei sale, Cook și-a făcut obiceiul de a încheia fiecare sezon cu un șir de jocuri ascunse-utile, care, desigur, ar duce la hype-ul pre-sezonului în anul următor. Am fost prinși într-un ciclu de supraviețuire-sleeper-bust-surge timp de mai multe sezoane cu Cook.
Astăzi, ofensiva lui Tennessee prezintă un alt tight end care închide sezonul cu un binge. Okonkwo a atras ținte de două cifre în săptămâni consecutive și a terminat cu opt capturi pentru 81 de metri și o conversie de 2 puncte în pierderea sălbatică de duminică. Este greu să ignori orice jucător care vede acest tip de volum, în special la capătul strâmt. Dacă te-ai luptat cu această poziție tot anul, este timpul să-i dai probabil lui Okonkwo un test drive într-un meci atrăgător la Jacksonville.
WR și TE-uri suplimentare de luat în considerare:
Romeo Doubs este un zburător rezonabil într-o anumită săptămână și echipa sa se îndreaptă într-un schimb de focuri probabil cu Minnesota duminică. Orice receptor Packers disponibil merită luat în considerare.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine a revenit triumfător în zona finală duminică, după o absență rară de două săptămâni, așa că acum are până la nouă recepții TD în sezon cu doar 25 de capturi. El se confruntă cu Jaguars în săptămâna 17, așa că există o șansă decentă să fie pe cale să efectueze al zecelea apel acasă din 2024.
Rashod Bateman este încă un membru al clubului all-he-does-is-catch-touchdowns, care a marcat recent pentru a opta oară în acest an la 39 de recepții. Cu Bateman, desigur, nu se simte îngrozitor de șovăielnic, pentru că este un receptor de mare joc legat de un joc de pase agresiv și exploziv. El se confruntă cu texanii săptămâna aceasta de Crăciun.
Vânătorul Henry au văzut nouă ținte în pierderea restrânsă de duminică, trăgând în patru pentru 39 de metri și un scor. El a remizat 39 de încercări de trecere în ultimele sale cinci jocuri, o sarcină de muncă grea după standardele poziției sale. Henry se îndreaptă spre o confruntare de sâmbătă cu Chargers, fostul său angajator.
Quarterbacks
Drake Maye, New England Patriots (13%)
Să ne acordăm doar un moment pentru a aprecia acest lucru absolut murdar aruncare de Maye:
Cele mai bune piese ale sale din acest sezon au fost scandaloase. Managerii dinastiei, cu siguranță aveți voie să visați puțin la potențialul lui Maye în al doilea sezon, presupunând o cameră de primire modernizată.
Maye a terminat cu 261 de metri de trecere și 30 la sol duminică la Buffalo, oferind două scoruri. Abilitatea sa de amenințare dublă îl menține pe radarul fanteziei fără a ține cont de adversar. El se îndreaptă spre o confruntare din Championship Week acasa împotriva Chargers, o echipă care a permis 67 de puncte ridicole și 861 de metri totale în ultimele două jocuri. Maye este pe deplin aprobat pentru utilizare în ligă profundă.
Opțiuni suplimentare QB:
Russell Wilson vine dintr-o pierdere dezordonată în fața Baltimore, cu un pick-6 brutal inclus. Cu toate acestea, a aruncat mai multe pase de touchdown în trei dintre ultimele sale patru jocuri, așa că a rămas o opțiune de ligă profundă care poate fi jucată. Ofensiva lui Pittsburgh are nevoie, evident, de George Pickens (ischio-coardei) înapoi în cel mai rău mod.
Bryce Young Foarte clar joacă cel mai bun fotbal al carierei sale în NFL și a depășit 25 de puncte fantastice în două dintre ultimele sale patru jocuri, inclusiv victoria de duminică în fața Arizona. De obicei, nu îl considerăm un QB cu dublă amenințare, dar s-a grăbit pentru trei scoruri în ultimele patru jocuri. Young este cu siguranță o opțiune superflex/deep league la Tampa Bay în săptămâna 17.
Michael Penix Jr. nu este cineva pe care trebuie să-l forțăm în formații săptămâna aceasta împotriva Washingtonului, dar merită menționat faptul că a trecut duminică testul de ochi, completând 18 din 27 de încercări pentru 202 de metri împotriva Giants. Interceptarea lui a fost în întregime vina receptorului Kyle Pitts, așa că vă rog să nu-l țineți pe Penix. El aruncă cu genul de viteză pe care nu l-am văzut de la Kirk Cousins în ultimele jocuri. Cu siguranță ne putem simți mai bine cu privire la corpul de primire al Atlanta cu Penix la comenzi.
Apărare
Miami Dolphins (47%)
Apărarea Dolphins a fost relativ animată în acest sezon, clasându-se în top-10 atât împotriva alergării, cât și a pasului. Acest grup tocmai i-a ținut pe Niners la 17 puncte, demisându-l pe Brock Purdy de trei ori și forțând o alegere. În săptămâna următoare, Miami călătorește la Cleveland pentru a se confrunta cu o ofensă condamnată a lui Browns condusă de Dorian Thompson-Robinson, un bărbat care vine dintr-o performanță de 5-sack, 2-INT împotriva Cincinnati. DTR a aruncat acum o pasă de touchdown și nouă interceptări în 13 apariții în cariera sezonului regulat, completând doar 52,8% din aruncări. Dacă Dolphins D rămâne disponibil în liga ta, ar putea fi de fapt cea mai mare prioritate de ridicare a săptămânii.
Kicker
Will Reichard, Minnesota Vikings (8%)
Uite, nu toată lumea îl poate avea pe Brandon Aubrey în echipă. Reichard este probabil cel mai bun lucru la poziția sa și este disponibil în peste 90% din universul fanteziei Yahoo. Este o mașină de lovitură aproape perfectă, cu un picior de calitate pentru arme, atașat unei infracțiuni cu o medie de 30,4 puncte pe meci în ultimele cinci săptămâni. Reichard va juca în interior săptămâna aceasta, fără probleme legate de vreme, într-un joc cu unul dintre cele mai mari totaluri de pe tablă.
Dacă joci într-o ligă sofisticată care încă folosește kickers – singura modalitate legitimă de a juca fotbal fantasy – Reichard ar trebui neapărat să fie listat.
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Lista de duminică din Săptămâna 16 este în cărți și au existat spectacole și accidentări care vor avea implicații pe termen lung pe fantezie. Andy Behrens se alătură lui Matt Harmon pentru a defalca toată acțiunea și a plasa jocurile în trei categorii: jocuri la care ne pasă cel mai mult, jocuri la care ne interesează și jocuri care ar fi putut fi un e-mail.
Harmon începe spectacolul, așa cum o face întotdeauna, împărtășind un lucru de care îi pasă și de care nu-i pasă din ciocnirea SNF dintre Buccaneers din Tampa Bay și Cowboys din Dallas. Harmon și Behrens recapitulează apoi o listă sălbatică de început de joc și oferă analize instantanee de fantezie pentru întreaga listă de duminică:
(1:20) – Monologul SNF solo al lui Matt: Buccaneers-Cowboys
(18:30) – Jocurile lui Matt și Andy la care le pasă foarte mult: PHI@WSH, MIN@SEA, AZ@CAR
(44:40) – Jocurile lui Matt și Andy la care le pasă: SF@MIA, LAR@NYJ, BUF@NE, DET@CHI,
(1:07:00) – Jocurile lui Matt și Andy care ar fi putut fi un e-mail: CLE@CIN, TEN@IND, NYG@ATL, JAX@LV
Lista de duminică din Săptămâna 16 este în cărți și au existat spectacole și accidentări care vor avea implicații pe termen lung pe fantezie. Andy Behrens se alătură lui Matt Harmon pentru a defalca toată acțiunea și a plasa jocurile în trei categorii: jocuri la care ne pasă cel mai mult, jocuri la care ne interesează și jocuri care ar fi putut fi un e-mail. (Credit: Jason Jung)
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The Week 16 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 16 slate, including the surging Eagles trying to lock up the NFC East title versus the Commanders. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Saints and the Packers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Giants storyline to watch: As the Giants try to avoid a franchise-record 10th straight loss, wide receiver Malik Nabers has a bunch of records in sight. He’s 99 yards away from being a 1,000-yard receiver and two catches from passing Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. for most receptions by a rookie in franchise history. Nabers, with 90 catches, has a shot at Puka Nacua’s NFL rookie record of 105 catches. — Jordan Raanan
Falcons storyline to watch: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the eighth pick in the 2024 draft, will make his first NFL start. Coach Raheem Morris said this week that Penix has not thrown much to the team’s starting wide receivers in practice because he has been the scout team quarterback behind Kirk Cousins since OTAs. But Penix trained with Ray-Ray McCloud III in the offseason, and the two have developed good chemistry. — Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: Running back Bijan Robinson is one touchdown away from being the first Falcons player with 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in a season since Devonta Freeman in 2016.
Bold prediction: Penix will record a 60-plus QBR. Facing the Giants, the Falcons should be able to limit the ask on him, and I think the result will be an efficient performance in a win. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Falcons are one game back of the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. Atlanta currently has a 29% chance of making the playoffs and a 21% chance of winning the division, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Injuries: Giants | Falcons
Fantasy X factor: Nabers. He has four-plus receptions in every game this season, the second-longest streak in the league, and 10-plus targets in nine of those games. The Falcons’ defense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so starting the Giants’ only viable threat would be the smart play. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their past nine games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their past four games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Falcons 28, Giants 14 Moody’s pick: Falcons 28, Giants 17 Walder’s pick: Falcons 24, Giants 16 FPI prediction: ATL, 62.9% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Giants turn back to Lock as starting QB vs. Falcons … Falcons’ Cousins: Told Penix ‘I’d be in his corner’ … Giants’ Daboll and Schoen: Stay or go?
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DET -6.5 (47.5 O/U)
Lions storyline to watch: Detroit has been bitten by the injury bug with a league-high 21 players currently on the injured reserve list, including running back David Montgomery, who sustained a torn MCL in the loss to the Bills. Without Montgomery, coach Dan Campbell is confident in Jahmyr Gibbs’ ability as the Lions’ “lead horse.” Gibbs said his on-field mindset won’t change. “I’ve been doing this my whole life, so I don’t look at it any different,” he said. — Eric Woodyard
Bears storyline to watch: Chicago’s eight straight losses are taking a toll on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. “Losing is one of those things that really affects me,” Williams said. “It’s tough.” The Bears have their second straight NFC North matchup, coming off a loss to Minnesota in which they converted only one third-down opportunity. Williams has the third-worst off-target percentage (21.4) this season and a 51 QBR against man coverage, which Detroit plays at the highest rate in the league (56%). — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears’ eight straight losses are tied for the second-longest losing streak in franchise history and their longest since losing 14 consecutive games in 2022-23.
Bold prediction: The Lions’ defense — yes, even with all the injuries — will bounce back and give up 15 or fewer points to the Bears. There’s real reason for concern for the Lions’ defense when it faces a good offense, as it did against the Bills last week. The Bears are not that. — Walder
What’s at stake: With a win, the Lions’ chances at the No.1 seed in the NFC improve to 65%, per ESPN Analytics. With a loss, they fall to 26%. Read more.
Injuries: Lions | Bears
Fantasy X factor: Gibbs. He has averaged 16.1 touches per game, and the Lions rely heavily on their running backs, backed by an offensive line that ranks 13th in run block win rate (71.6%). Plus, the Bears’ defense gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their past five as home underdogs. They have covered in three in a row. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Lions 34, Bears 24 Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Bears 24 Walder’s pick: Lions 34, Bears 13 FPI prediction: DET, 71.9% (by an average of 8.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Campbell takes blame for loss vs. Bills … Losing ‘really affects me,’ says Bears QB Williams … DE Hutchinson on track for Super Bowl return … Coach Thomas Brown defends Bears’ effort during skid
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -7.5 (46.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to watch: At quarterback, the Browns are turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a 2023 fifth-round pick who will make his fourth career start Sunday. His mobility should open some things in the run game, but, like the recently benched Jameis Winston, he will have to take better care of the ball. Thompson-Robinson has thrown seven interceptions to only one touchdown already. — Daniel Oyefusi
Bengals storyline to watch: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett has sacked quarterback Joe Burrow nine times, the most of any opponent in Burrow’s career. Cincinnati is trying to blank Garrett’s sack count against Burrow for the first time in five seasons. Getting Cody Ford (flu) back will be big for an offensive line still without Orlando Brown Jr. (fibula). — Ben Baby
Stat to know: Burrow has a 72 QBR in every Bengals loss this season. That’s the second-best mark since the metric was first calculated in 2006 (Ben Roethlisberger had a 76 QBR in six losses in 2018).
Bold prediction: Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson will record at least 2.5 sacks and reemerge as a defensive player of the year candidate. Thompson-Robinson hasn’t taken sacks at high rate in his career, but the sample is limited and I expect the Bengals to be ahead, which leads to more sacks. — Walder
What’s at stake: Any chance for the Bengals to make the postseason rides on this game. They will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Browns, and they currently hold the ninth-best odds at 6%, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Injuries: Browns | Bengals
Fantasy X factor: Browns running back Jerome Ford. Without Nick Chubb (foot), Ford should lead the Browns’ committee for the rest of the season. Expect him to get plenty of touches, even if the Bengals get out ahead early. He has been the primary back on passing downs all season, so he’ll stay involved no matter the score. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 0-3 ATS in their past three, 1-5 ATS in their past six and 3-9 ATS in their past 12. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 30, Browns 13 Moody’s pick: Bengals 31, Browns 14 Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Browns 13 FPI prediction: CIN, 67.3% (by an average of 6.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns bench Winston; Thompson-Robinson to start vs. Bengals … Bengals RB Brown staking claim as featured running back … South Florida route-running culture embedded in Cleveland
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IND -3.5 (42.5 O/U)
Titans storyline to watch: Calvin Ridley needs 221 receiving yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark. He didn’t register a reception in the first meeting with the Colts despite being targeted eight times by then-starter Will Levis. Mason Rudolph will be the quarterback this time, which is good news for Ridley as his season-high 143 receiving yards came with Rudolph throwing to him against the Lions. — Turron Davenport
Colts storyline to watch: The Colts enter this week ranked 28th in yards allowed per game (366.1), their lowest mark since 2017 when they finished 4-12. Somehow, they’ve ranked better in scoring defense at 21st with 23.5 points per game. But an underrated byproduct has been Indianapolis having the NFL’s lowest time of possession at 26 minutes, 41 seconds per game. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Titans running back Tony Pollard needs 85 scrimmage yards to reach 1,300 for the third straight season. He would join Derrick Henry as the only players to reach that mark in each of the past three seasons.
Bold prediction: Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell will catch a 30-plus-air-yard pass. He has been targeted on five such throws this season and has zero receptions, but I’m convinced the connection is going to happen this weekend. ESPN’s open score loves Mitchell, giving him an 83 in the category. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Colts were eliminated from playoff contention after the Chargers defeated the Broncos on Thursday night. But the Titans still have something on the line, as their current 39% chance at a top-five pick will improve with a win, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Injuries: Titans | Colts
Fantasy X factor: Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. He struggled as a passer last week, completing just 44.7% of attempts, but he rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown. This week, he faces a Titans defense giving up the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and giving up the eighth-most rushing yards. Expect him to take advantage. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season. Six straight Titans road games have gone over the total. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Colts 21, Titans 12 Moody’s pick: Colts 24, Titans 13 Walder’s pick: Colts 17, Titans 9 FPI prediction: IND, 49.9% (by an average of 0.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Benched Levis: Still believe I can be Titans’ franchise QB … Butker, Bates and the life of an NFL kicker … Colts are good on first drives, but then fall apart
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAR -3 (46.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to watch: This is the 18th time starting quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers will face each other, which will be tied for the fifth most among starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs), according to ESPN Research. Rodgers has won 13 of them, but Stafford might have the upper hand this time since the Jets have won only twice in their past 11 games. — Sarah Barshop
Jets storyline to watch: Rodgers needs two touchdown passes to become only the fifth player in NFL history to hit the 500 mark. He’s playing his best ball of the year, having thrown for 628 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the past two games. The offense has produced 58 points and 802 yards, which are its most in back-to-back games this season. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Rams are looking to become the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons after being three games under .500 at some point in the year.
Bold prediction: Rams rookie Jared Verse will record at least a 25% pass rush win rate and a sack against Jets rookie Olu Fashanu. The offensive tackle’s 87% pass block win rate is better than what Tyron Smith posted before his injury, but it is still below average. Verse is anything but average, and Sunday’s game could bolster his chances at Defensive Rookie of the Year. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Rams currently have a 54% chance to make playoffs and a 53% chance to win NFC West, per ESPN Analytics. Those chances improve to 65% and 64%, respectively, with a win. And they fall to 43% and 42%, respectively, with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Rams | Jets
Fantasy X factor: Rodgers. He came alive on Sunday against the Jaguars, dropping a season-high 30 fantasy points. That’s not surprising since Jacksonville has given up the most points to quarterbacks this season. He’s set up for another big game with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson as his top receivers because the Rams’ defense gives up the 13th-most passing yards per game (218.1). See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jets are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Rams 28, Jets 20 Moody’s pick: Rams 28, Jets 24 Walder’s pick: Rams 24, Jets 19 FPI prediction: LAR, 51.1% (by an average of 0.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: McVay galvanizes Rams to three-game win stretch … The real Rodgers saving his best for last with Jets … Wilson tries to clear air after sideline outburst
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -3.5 (45.5 O/U)
Eagles storyline to watch: The Eagles’ pass game awoke against the Steelers after several quiet games, with quarterback Jalen Hurts throwing for 290 yards and a pair of scores. Wide receiver A.J. Brown was targeted a season-high 11 times and finished with eight catches for 110 yards. Good things happen when Hurts goes Brown’s way, as the duo tops the NFL in yards per attempt (12.1). — Tim McManus
Commanders storyline to watch: In the first meeting in Week 11, a 26-18 Eagles win, Commanders leading receiver Terry McLaurin was targeted a season-low two times. Philadelphia often bracketed him in the red zone, and it didn’t help that he ran 22 of his 25 routes from the left side. But, in the past three games, Washington has moved him around more — 40 routes run from the left side and 22 on the right. More importantly, he has more than nine targets on both sides during this stretch. — John Keim
Stat to know: Hurts has 14 rushing touchdowns, which is the most in the NFL and tied for the third most by a quarterback through a season in NFL history. He had 15 in 2023, which Josh Allen matched in the same year for the second-most ever.
Bold prediction: McLaurin will record under 35 receiving yards. I’m fully buying the Eagles’ secondary, and he is far and away the most important Commanders target for a defense to try to stop. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles can lock up the NFC East title with a win. If the Commanders win, they need the Falcons to lose, as well as losses by either the Rams or Seahawks, to make the postseason. Read more.
Injuries: Eagles | Commanders
Fantasy X factor: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. The Commanders’ defensive front ranks 24th in run stop win rate (29.1%), while the Eagles’ offensive line ranks ninth in run block win rate (72.9%). Washington also gives up the sixth-most rushing yards per game to running backs and is giving up 5.0 yards per carry. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 10-3-1 ATS in the first quarter this season, which is the best in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 27 Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 24 Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Commanders 17 FPI prediction: PHI, 58.8% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Eagles revive passing game as QB Hurts deals with broken finger … Bill provision may aid Commanders return to D.C. … Wives of Commanders kickers go into labor at same time
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ARI -5 (47.5 O/U)
Cardinals storyline to watch: The Panthers’ struggles throwing the ball this season will give the Cardinals a prime opportunity to continue their march toward a playoff spot. Their defense is giving up 217 passing yards per game and 6.94 passing yards per play and will line up across an offense that is among the worst passing teams in the NFL, averaging 186 yards per game (29th) and 5.69 yards per play (28th). — Josh Weinfuss
Panthers storyline to watch: Carolina probably will be without one of its best remaining defensive linemen (A’Shawn Robinson, knee) on a unit that already ranks last in the NFL against the run (giving up 173 yards per game). It also lost two more linebackers to IR (Trevin Wallace and Claudin Cherelus). That’s not good news when you’re facing the league’s seventh-best run offense, averaging 141 yards, and an elusive quarterback in Kyler Murray. — David Newton
Stat to know: With a loss, the Panthers would clinch five or fewer wins for the fifth time in the past six seasons. Before 2019, the franchise had only three seasons with five or fewer wins since they played their first NFL season in 1995.
Bold prediction: The Cardinals will score 35-plus points. It’s being slept on as to just how good Murray has been this season. He ranks fourth in QBR (68.4) without an exceptional offensive line or wide receiver room. And this week, he gets to show off against a Carolina defense that’s 31st in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play and 30th in EPA allowed per dropback. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Cardinals are a game back of the Rams and Seahawks for first place in the NFC West. Arizona enters Sunday with a 14% chance to win the division, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Injuries: Cardinals | Panthers
Fantasy X factor: Cardinals running back James Conner. He has averaged 18.4 touches per game and exploded for a season-high 30.8 fantasy points in Week 14. Now, he faces a Panthers defense that gives up the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Expect another big game. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered five straight games as underdogs. They are 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 30, Panthers 21 Moody’s pick: Cardinals 30, Panthers 20 Walder’s pick: Cardinals 37, Panthers 17 FPI prediction: ARI, 74.6% (by an average of 9.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cardinals safety Baker lands 3-year extension … Sunday’s loss to Cowboys a microcosm of Panthers’ issues
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIN -3 (42.5 O/U)
Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings have struggled to win in Seattle, a trend that includes generations of players, coaches, front offices and ownership groups. They’ve lost their past five games there and have won only twice in 11 games over the past six decades. On paper, this season’s matchup favors the Vikings since their defense is tied for the NFL’s fourth-most sacks (42). The Seahawks have given up the league’s third-most sacks (47). — Kevin Seifert
Seahawks storyline to watch: Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings are blitzing on a league-high 39% of opponents’ dropbacks. Geno Smith has the ninth-best QBR (80.6) against the blitz, but will he have his usual ability to evade rushers and extend plays Sunday? Smith couldn’t finish Seattle’s loss to Green Bay because of a right knee injury, though he plans to play against Minnesota. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Seahawks are 3-5 at home this season. A loss would mark their most home losses in a season since 2008, when they finished 2-6.
Bold prediction: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will throw at least two interceptions. Though the Vikings beat the Bears easily last week, Darnold struggled at times with accuracy and posted a negative-4% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: Though the Vikings have clinched a playoff spot, the Seahawks currently hold a 36.2% chance to make the postseason, per ESPN Analytics. Seattle’s odds increase to 54.6% with a win and decrease to 23.3% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Vikings | Seahawks
Fantasy X factor: Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He has been on fire since Seattle’s bye week, recording 18 or more fantasy points in four of his past five games. He faces a Vikings defense that has given up the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Expect Smith-Njigba to stay heavily involved and deliver another strong performance. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 24, Seahawks 17 Moody’s pick: Vikings 24, Seahawks 13 Walder’s pick: Seahawks 26, Vikings 20 FPI prediction: MIN, 58.9% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jefferson, Vikings pay tribute to Randy Moss amid cancer fight … Geno ‘better,’ plans to play despite knee injury
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -14 (46.5 O/U)
Patriots storyline to watch: The past two times the Patriots and Bills have played in Buffalo, the opening kickoff has been returned for a touchdown, which has never happened between the same teams at the same venue in back-to-back seasons. This will also be the coldest game for Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the teens. “I’m excited to wear long sleeves for the first time and embrace it,” he said. — Mike Reiss
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills’ offense has a chance to become the first team to score 30-plus points in nine straight games. The Patriots have given up 24.1 points per game this season (10th worst). New England’s biggest task will be slowing MVP candidate Josh Allen, who also can become the first quarterback in the past 90 years to record multiple rushing touchdowns in three consecutive games, per Elias Sports Bureau. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Maye has a passing touchdown in six consecutive games entering Sunday. One more would tie Jim Plunkett (1971) for the longest streak by a rookie in franchise history.
Bold prediction: Bills edge Von Miller will record at least one sack. He has only one sack since returning from suspension in Week 9, but he actually boasts a 25% pass rush win rate at edge in that span, which is third best at the position. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Bills are in a fight with the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed. Buffalo’s chances increase to 25% with a win and fall to 3.6% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. On the other end, the Patriots’ odds at the No. 1 pick climb to 30% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Patriots | Bills
Fantasy X factor: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. He has been targeted often by Allen, with seven or more targets in eight games and two with 10 or more. Shakir has scored 16 or more fantasy points in consecutive games. He should do well against the Patriots’ defense, especially from the slot. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots have been 14-point underdogs only one other time in the past 30 seasons — 2023 against the Bills, when they lost by six. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bills 33, Patriots 17 Moody’s pick: Bills 41, Patriots 13 Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17 FPI prediction: BUF, 82.5% (by an average of 13.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mayo ‘didn’t mean anything’ with playcalling remark … Allen reaches new heights at QB, keeps Bills rolling
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LV -1.5 (40.5 O/U)
Jaguars storyline to watch: Jacksonville has really struggled preventing the big play. The Jaguars have given up a league-high 89 explosive plays (rushes of 15 or more yards and receptions of 30 or more yards). They’ve also given up 16 touchdowns on those plays, which is tied with Cleveland for the most. That’s a good matchup for the Raiders, who rank 22nd in the NFL with 44 offensive plays of 20 or more yards. — Michael DiRocco
Raiders storyline to watch: With only six catches in the Raiders’ past two games, Brock Bowers has fallen to fourth in the NFL with 90 receptions (he was leading the league two weeks ago). Despite the team’s quarterback issues, he needs 32 more yards to be the third rookie tight end to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in NFL history, joining Mike Ditka (1,076) and Kyle Pitts (1,026). He will face a Jaguars team that has the worst pass defense in the league (264.3 yards per game). — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: If the Raiders lose out in their final three games, they will tie their longest losing streak in franchise history (13 straight in 1962). After this week, they face the Saints and Chargers to end the season.
Bold prediction: The Jaguars’ offensive line will post its strongest pass block win rate of the season (75%). Going against the Raiders without Maxx Crosby (ankle) and Christian Wilkins (foot) should set up the unit for a smooth day and give quarterback Mac Jones plenty of time to make his reads. — Walder
What’s at stake: This matchup can drastically improve or hurt both teams’ chances at the No.1 pick (independent of other results). The Raiders’ odds at the selection increase to 30% with a loss and decrease to 2% with a win, per ESPN Analytics. The Jaguars’ chances climb to 11% with a loss and fall to less than 1% with a win. Read more.
Injuries: Jaguars | Raiders
Fantasy X factor: Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange. Evan Engram (shoulder) is out for the season, which means Strange takes over as Jacksonville’s starting tight end. He looked solid earlier this year when filling in for Engram. He now faces a Raiders defense that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders are 0-1 outright as favorites this season (lost 36-22 to the Panthers in Week 3). They are 3-1 ATS as favorites under coach Antonio Pierce. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Jaguars 17, Raiders 15 Moody’s pick: Jaguars 21, Raiders 13 Walder’s pick: Jaguars 26, Raiders 19 FPI prediction: LV, 56.5% (by an average of 2.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Lawrence, Engram have shoulder surgery … Eerie mood looms over Raiders as Pierce’s job status is questioned
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -1 (44.5 O/U)
49ers storyline to watch: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is averaging 12 yards per reception this season, which is on pace for the third-lowest total of his career. Improving on that mark could prove difficult against a Niners defense that has been stingy with big plays in the second part of the season. Since Week 8, San Francisco has given up only 10 pass plays of 20-plus yards (fewest in the NFL) and is giving up 9.3 yards per reception (second lowest) in that span. — Nick Wagoner
Dolphins storyline to watch: With Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) doubtful to play Sunday, the 49ers are presented with a difficult matchup against one of the NFL’s top run defenses. The Dolphins have allowed only one of their past eight opponents to crack 100 rushing yards (the Packers in Week 13). In fact, Miami has given up an NFL-best 83.3 rushing yards per game since losing to Green Bay. San Francisco might have to rely more on quarterback Brock Purdy, whose breakout game came against the Dolphins in 2022. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has the fourth-most passing touchdowns (13) and third-most passing yards (1,704) in the NFL since returning from a concussion in Week 10.
Bold prediction: 49ers tight end George Kittle will record 5-plus catches for 90-plus receiving yards. No team gives up a higher percentage of opponent targets to tight ends than Miami at 23%. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Dolphins will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss after the Chargers’ Thursday night win. The 49ers will miss the postseason with a loss or be eliminated by seven other scenarios involving wins by other NFC teams. Read more.
Injuries: 49ers | Dolphins
Fantasy X factor: 49ers running back Patrick Taylor Jr. If Guerendo is out, the door opens for Taylor to lead the backfield. He scored nine fantasy points in Week 14 after Guerendo went down. The Dolphins have done well against quarterbacks, at least in fantasy, so this could be a game in which San Francisco leans on its ground attack. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five straight Dolphins home games have gone over the total. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: 49ers 22, Dolphins 20 Moody’s pick: 49ers 24, Dolphins 21 Walder’s pick: 49ers 30, Dolphins 17 FPI prediction: SF, 54.4% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Source: 49ers RB Guerendo likely out against Dolphins … Dolphins’ DuBose to return home after hospital stay … Greenlaw’s return highlighted why the 49ers need to keep him
Buccaneers storyline to watch: Considering what the Bucs did as an offense in a 40-17 victory over the Chargers, the timing on this couldn’t be better. The Bucs’ run game has dramatically improved from last in the league last season to now fourth overall (144.4 yards per game). The Cowboys are giving up 136.1 rushing yards per game (fourth worst in the league) and have surrendered 43 total touchdowns as a defense (third most in the league). — Jenna Laine
Cowboys storyline to watch: If the Cowboys lose, it would be their seventh loss of the season at AT&T Stadium, their most since 2015. They also have a chance to match the franchise record for most home losses in a season (0-8 in 1989). All of this has come after they won 16 straight regular-season games at home from 2022 to 2023. To avoid a loss, the defense will have to slow down the No. 4 scoring offense in the league (28.8 points per game). — Todd Archer
Stat to know: A loss for the Cowboys would clinch their first losing season since coach Mike McCarthy went 6-10 in his first year in 2020. They haven’t had multiple losing seasons under a single head coach since going 5-11 in three straight seasons from 2000 to 2002 with Dave Campo.
Bold prediction: Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean will give up no more than 40 receiving yards as the nearest defender, even though he’ll presumably see at least some of wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Since Week 10, Dean has given up just 0.7 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats — far better than the 1.2 average for outside corners. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Buccaneers’ chances to win the NFC South increase to 93% with a win and fall to 68% with a loss. The Cowboys would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a Washington win. Read more.
Injuries: Buccaneers | Cowboys
Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan. He had 36.5 fantasy points combined in his first eight games and then 40.4 in the past two. Interestingly, he and Mike Evans ran the same number of routes in that span, with Evans barely leading in targets. The Cowboys’ defense gives up the sixth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS as home underdogs this season. They are 1-6 outright and ATS overall at home. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 20 Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 35, Cowboys 21 Walder’s pick: Cowboys 20, Buccaneers 19 FPI prediction: TB, 70.0% (by an average of 7.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rookies stepping up at right time for surging Buccaneers … What does the Cowboys’ 2025 salary cap really look like? … NFC South conundrum: Path to the playoffs, biggest hurdles
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints have played only 18 games at 32 degrees or below at kickoff. They have won the past three, including a game against the Browns in 2022 when it was 6 degrees. But New Orleans doesn’t have Taysom Hill (knee), the leading rusher from that last win, and might not have Alvin Kamara, who is dealing with a groin injury. The Saints also could start rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler since Derek Carr has been out because of a fractured hand. — Katherine Terrell
Packers storyline to watch: It’s a small sample size, but Packers quarterback Jordan Love has shown no issues when it comes to playing in cold-weather games. He’s 2-0 as Green Bay’s starter when the temperature is 32 degrees or lower, which helps as it could be snowing Monday. When it comes to late-season contests overall, coach Matt LaFleur also has the best December/January record (23-5) in the NFL since 2019. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Packers are averaging 6.6 yards after catch per reception this season (third in the NFL). The Saints’ defense is giving up 6.2 yards after catch per reception this season (third highest in the NFL).
Bold prediction: Saints linebacker Demario Davis will lead the NFL in tackles in Week 16. The Saints are heavy underdogs to the Packers, which means Green Bay probably will be out in front and running the ball plenty. Davis has recorded a tackle on 21% of run plays he’s on the field for this season, which leads Saints linebackers. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Packers can secure their spot as the third NFC North team in the playoffs through multiple scenarios. The easiest path is by winning Sunday. Otherwise, Green Bay will need a Falcons loss to pair with either a loss by the Rams or the Seahawks. Read more.
Injuries: Saints | Packers
Fantasy X factor: Packers running back Josh Jacobs. Green Bay is a double-digit favorite, setting up Jacobs for a big workload. He has had 18-plus touches and 21-plus fantasy points in five straight games. The Saints’ defense gives up 23.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, making him a strong play this week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints have been double-digit underdogs one time in the past 19 seasons (plus-11.5 at Buccaneers in 2021, when they won 9-0). They have not been at least 13-point underdogs since 2005. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Packers 30, Saints 17 Moody’s pick: Packers 28, Saints 16 Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Saints 10 FPI prediction: GB, 83.5% (by an average of 14.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Edwards-Helaire joins Saints after being cut by Chiefs … Cooper, Doubs key to Packers’ win over Seattle … Saints bench Haener, go back to Rattler in loss
Texans storyline to watch: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ranks 18th in completion percentage (45%) under pressure among starters, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, the Texans’ defensive line is third in pressure rate (38.2%) and second in sacks (45). If the Texans can force Mahomes — who is dealing with a high ankle sprain — into uncomfortable spots, Houston can position itself for an upset. — DJ Bien-Aime
Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs’ defense showed signs of life last week against the Browns with five sacks and an improved pressure rate (46%) when it didn’t blitz. The Texans have given up 46 sacks, fifth most in the league, so Kansas City has a reason to believe it can disrupt Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Chiefs have had 11 of their 32 total sacks come in the past three weeks. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2024 Chiefs are the second team in NFL history to play games on six different days of the week, joining the 1927 New York Yankees.
Bold prediction: Mahomes will post a Total QBR of under 50. There’s a good chance his scrambling will be limited as he deals with a high ankle injury, so defending Mahomes becomes quite a bit easier. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chiefs can lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win and a Buffalo loss, becoming the sixth team since 2002 to clinch the top spot with at least two games left in the regular season. Five of the previous six teams reached the Super Bowl, though none won. Read more.
Injuries: Texans | Chiefs
Fantasy X factor: Texans wide receiver Nico Collins. Yes, the Chiefs’ defense is tough, but it is still vulnerable. Just look at the big games it has given up to Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Ladd McConkey and Jakobi Meyers. Collins has averaged 19.3 fantasy points this season. He has had only one game with fewer than 10 points. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Texans are 12-2 against the spread (ATS) in the first half of games this season, which is the best in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Texans 24, Chiefs 21 Moody’s pick: Chiefs 21, Texans 20 Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Chiefs 20 FPI prediction: KC, 57.4% (by an average of 2.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Texans OT Tunsil learned from draft-day nightmare … Chiefs to activate WR Brown vs. Texans barring any setbacks … Texans clinch AFC South for second straight year
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: BAL -6.5 (45.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith compared the Steelers’ run game to an old truck earlier this week, saying that it might take some time to get it started, but it can put together some nice drives. In the two-game absence of wide receiver George Pickens, who could be out again this week, their offense became more one-dimensional and couldn’t run the ball effectively. To clinch the AFC North title against the league’s best rushing defense, the Steelers must establish the run early. — Brooke Pryor
Ravens storyline to watch: The Ravens can tie the Steelers atop the AFC North with a win, but they will need quarterback Lamar Jackson to break out of his slump against them. In losing four of his five starts against Pittsburgh, he recorded career lows in QBR (39) and completion rate (57%). The Steelers have pressured the two-time NFL MVP on 31% of his dropbacks and sacked him 22 times. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: For Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, the run of nine straight meetings decided by seven points or fewer is the longest such streak by two head coaches in NFL history (regular season or playoffs).
Bold prediction: The Ravens will have a win probability of over 90% at halftime. Despite their records, FPI views the Ravens as substantially better, and I’m inclined to believe the model. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Steelers have already made the playoffs and can clinch the AFC North title with a win, which would be their first division title since 2020. The Ravens can secure a postseason spot with a win or if the Colts and Dolphins both lose. Read more.
Injuries: Steelers | Ravens
Fantasy X factor: Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers. Since that monster 29.7-point performance against the Broncos in Week 9, Flowers has averaged just 10.3 fantasy points per game. He is still worth starting this week. The Steelers’ defense has struggled against outside receivers, as Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 25 and 28 points, respectively, last week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers are 5-1 outright and ATS as underdogs this season. Last week was the first time the Steelers lost as underdogs this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 25 Moody’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 21 Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 13 FPI prediction: BAL, 66.8% (by an average of 6.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Tomlin hopeful Watt will play against Ravens … QB Jackson’s five TDs vs. Giants sets another NFL mark
Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.
Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.
Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.
Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.
Let’s dive into my Week 16 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.
BINGE
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers offense has by and large exceeded expectations with Arthur Smith at the OC gig and Russell Wilson under center. However, their previous matchup with the Ravens didn’t turn into the points-fest many people wanted to see and it was because their style of attack doesn’t necessarily match up with where the Ravens defense is most vulnerable.
I found it a little more difficult to pinpoint a big concern for the Ravens than I might have imagined going in on the latest Football 301.
Settled on their ability to defend the middle of the field. They allow the most passing yards per game over the short and deep middle this… pic.twitter.com/atJrV8ID96
On the season, the Ravens defense gives up 83.5 yards per game over the deep and short middle of the field, with 10.2 YPA. The unit overall has been much improved of late. Since Week 10, Baltimore is seventh in dropback success rate allowed. However, you can map some of their strong games defensively based on the teams they’ve played in this stretch (Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, Eagles, Giants) that actually activate the middle of the field. Bengals and Chargers, yes. Eagles and Steelers, not as much. The Giants are … the Giants.
While Wilson has been a nice hit for the Steelers, he still hasn’t consistently worked the intermediate middle of the field. It’s especially tough to imagine that happening without No. 1 receiver, George Pickens this week. Pickens has emerged as a true difference-maker this season and the passing game takes a huge hit without him.
On the Ravens side of things, everything is clicking. Even Rashod Bateman is on a tear with this team and is coming off another massive game against the Giants last week.
However, Bateman popped up with an injury this week. With that in mind, Zay Flowers needs to be a big factor for Baltimore in Week 16.
Typically the pure perimeter X-receivers are the big beneficiaries when an offense faces single-high because they get one-on-one matchups outside. Flowers and the Ravens break that mold. Per Fantasy Points Data, Flowers’ 2.85 yards per route run leads the team by a significant margin when the team faces single-high. He owns a 27.5% target share.
The Ravens love to scheme him open for shots off motion, deep outs or double moves as the flanker when those big windows are open outside. Since he can move to multiple spots, it’s hard to assign that single-high safety over the top of Flowers. The Steelers play more single-high than any other defense in the league.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
We get a huge NFC East rematch that will go a long way in deciding the division but also be a proving ground for the ceiling of both teams.
While last week’s passing-game eruption from the Eagles was something we needed to see, I’d argue that we didn’t learn all that much about the team. We know the Eagles can throw all over a defense like Pittsburgh.
I don’t come away from Week 15 feeling like we learned anything new about the Eagles passing game.
We know they have ballers and can demolish a man-heavy, single-high team like Pittsburgh.
Can they have a passing performance like that against a zone-heavy defense with funky… https://t.co/hnC1zkM9B9
For this week, there are some overlaps between the Steelers’ and Commanders’ defense. Washington is ninth in terms of man coverage overall and Pittsburgh is 10th, per Fantasy Points data. That’s a good data point if you’re hunting a huge week for A.J. Brown or looking to start DeVonta Smith.
However, Dan Quinn and his group are much less single-high heavy than the Steelers (67.4%, highest in the league). How Jalen Hurts and co. attack some of those looks where the middle of the field is open will be critical in developing the upside case for this unit.
Washington had a troubling outing in their previous matchup with the Eagles. Their defense shut down Jayden Daniels and co. on offense. This was best expressed in the Quinyon Mitchell vs. Terry McLaurin matchup.
Per Next Gen Stats, Mitchell lined up against McLaurin on 20 of his 25 routes (80.0%), including 19 of 20 when he aligned wide (95.0%), in Week 11. Daniels never threw to McLaurin in Mitchell’s coverage.
A critical change since this matchup is that Kliff Kingsbury is finally moving his No. 1 wide receiver across the formation. It resulted in a big game for McLaurin last week.
Terry McLaurin aligned as the right perimeter WR on 27% of his snaps in Week 15.
His previous single-game high was 15%, his season-long rate was 8%. He spends almost all of his time (74%) as the perimeter left WR. That rate was down to a season-low 58% in Week 15, only the… https://t.co/tX5GFEQsg5
The Eagles corners primarily play sides, with Darius Slay taking 93% of his snaps on the defensive left and Mitchell 95% on the defensive right. Moving to the other side more often will give McLaurin reps against Slay, and that’s a much more favorable matchup.
As long as Kingsbury keeps showing us new wrinkles on that side of the ball, McLaurin should be able to enjoy a better outing. After that, it just comes down to winning the line of scrimmage for the Washington offense, which is easier said than done considering Jalen Carter dominated this game last time out.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
The Vikings offense has been on fire the last few weeks. They are getting some of the best wide receiver play in the league between Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who has actually been more productive of late.
Addison has the highest yards per route run against zone coverage since Week 12. With so much cloud and Cover 2 on Jefferson’s side, Addison has shredded single-coverage situations. He’s really stepped up as a contested-catch wideout this season. To this point, I haven’t really considered him in that “1B receiver” tier with the DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins types, but I may need to reconsider that. The Seahawks defense has been improved over the second half of the season but still struggles at outside corner. Those guys give up big plays and play grabby in coverage, leading to penalties. Addison and Jefferson will be a chore.
However, don’t overlook T.J. Hockenson in this matchup. The tight end has averaged over 5.5 yards per route run vs. man coverage since Week 12, easily leading the team. He’s been a key chain-mover on late downs. The Seahawks play man coverage at the highest rate on third and fourth down.
Seattle looks like it’ll have Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker back for this game. The former is obviously huge. Seattle will still be at a disadvantage facing this pass rush behind its leaky offensive line. However, Smith is a much better sack-avoider than Sam Howell, who posted a 22% sack rate in limited action last week.
Look for Smith to rely heavily on Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this game. Per Fantasy Points Data, when Seattle has faced two-high coverage since Week 10 — Minnesota has been among the most two-high-heavy defenses this season — JSN paces the team with a 3.2 yards per route run, while DK Metcalf sits just above 1.0. It’s not a coverage look that favors deep outside-the-number passes to begin with, and Seattle’s quarterbacks rarely have the time to uncork those throws behind their offensive line.
The return of Walker makes the backfield complicated. Seattle has gotten some of the best rushing performances of the season in the last few games with Zach Charbonnet operating as the feature back. He’s been able to establish a clear rhythm as the top dog. If this backfield is split again, neither back is an easy projection.
STREAM
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Most important Texans storyline: The Chiefs are set to get Hollywood Brown on the field for the first time this season. It also appears likely Patrick Mahomes will play in this game. Their connection will be critical to monitor. While most will be interested in Brown’s role as a speed threat, I’m more curious about his usage in the intermediate area of the field.
The area of the field I’m most interested in seeing Marquise Brown work is the intermediate area on routes like the dig, out, and curl…and generally vs. zone coverage.
I think Xavier Worthy is playing better football right now and gives you enough over-the-top. Hopkins can… https://t.co/3BVmiTvfU4
Right now, I’d say Xavier Worthy is playing better football the last month or so than he was at the beginning the season. I think you can count on him enough to be the primary lid-lifter while Brown operates on some more base routes. We may not see Brown get fully ramped up until the postseason but how he’s deployed in his first game back will be critical to track.
Most important Chiefs storyline: The Chiefs allow the most yards per game to slot receivers and rank 20th in rushing success rate allowed since Week 10. Unfortunately, the Texans are pretty ill-equipped to take advantage of either weakness that’s cropped up in Kansas City’s stop unit. Houston is the 31st team in rushing success rate in games Joe Mixon plays and doesn’t have a true target-earning slot receiver. The Texans offense will likely continue its limp toward the NFL postseason.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
Most important Rams storyline: The Rams are one of the best zone-beating teams in the NFL. All three of their most efficient receivers, Puka Nacua (1st), Tutu Atwell (7th) and Cooper Kupp (15th) have a yards-per-route run rate over 2.0 when they face zone coverage and rank inside the top-15 across the NFL. The story against man coverage is quite a bit different. Nacua has an absurd 4.10 YPRR vs. man coverage on the year, ranking second behind only A.J. Brown. They are the only receivers north of 3.55. They are having unreal elite seasons.
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Kupp ranks 30th and Atwell 43rd out of 102 qualifiers. It’s not like those results are overly poor but it’s clear who the lead man-beater on the team is at this point. The Jets play man coverage on 51.3% of the opponent’s late-down dropbacks this season.
Most important Jets storyline: Aaron Rodgers has played like a top-five quarterback over the last two weeks. His 0.35 EPA per dropback is fourth behind Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jared Goff. He ranks fifth with 10.3 adjusted yards per attempt while averaging 9.5 air yards per pass (sixth-most). Even as a scrambler, he’s been highly productive and useful for the offense. Rogers is behind only Allen and Jayden Daniels in EPA added on scrambles the last two weeks. This is all too little too late for the Jets but it can create a productive fantasy environment for the skill position players down the stretch against two high-powered offenses in the Rams and Bills the next two weeks.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Most important Cardinals storyline: Trey McBride isn’t just having a record-breaking season in terms of his zero touchdowns relative to 89 receptions, it’s also the most bewildering. Now, let’s compare it to the other two most recent zero-score seasons by high-volume players. Jakobi Meyers saw 81 targets in 2020 and didn’t score a touchdown. While I am and have always been a huge fan of Meyers as an underrated player, at the time he was a second-year UDFA playing in the Cam Newton version of the Patriots offense. The more recent example was Diontae Johnson who saw a whopping 147 targets (86 catches, fewer than McBride) but didn’t find the end zone. While Johnson is a good player he’s a certifiably weird one who was playing in an offense manned by Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky.
By any metric available, McBride is having a wonderful season and is without question a top-five player at his position. He also plays in an offense that, for all the frustrations some of their pass-game players have provided in fantasy football, ranks 10th in EPA per play. He’s also scored a touchdown as a rusher. That’s what makes this all so strange and untenable. Perhaps he breaks the drought through the air in Week 16 against the Panthers.
Most important Panthers storyline: Over the last three weeks, no running back has seen more playing time in his offense than Chuba Hubbard. The Panthers back has taken 90.4% of the team’s snaps in this span and handled 57 opportunities. He certainly didn’t have a big game last week but he’s in an ideal rebound spot in Week 16. The Cardinals defense has been better in the second half of the season but the run-stop unit is still an issue. They rank 31st in rushing success rate allowed since Week 10, ahead of only Hubbard’s own Panthers. We could see plenty of big runs in this contest.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
Most important 49ers storyline: Issac Guerendo got some excellent usage in Week 15. Despite some questions about his role coming into the game, he ended up playing 77% of the snaps, while the RB2 on the team only played 3.8%. Even better, he was the only running back on the team to receive a rush attempt. He was also an active participant in the passing game, running a route on 65% of the dropbacks and gathering a 12.9% target share.
Now that he’s not going to play in this game, we have very little indication that the coaching staff is ready to trust Patrick Taylor Jr. with any significant work. Given the way Deebo Samuel Sr. has played this season, especially last week after sounding off on social media regarding his lack of production, it’s unlikely he’s about to get more work from the backfield. The 49ers offense has been suffering all season without their usual production from the run game. It could be even worse than usual in Week 16.
Most important Dolphins storyline: Tua Tagovailoa is coming off one of the worst games of his I can remember. Tua went 3 of 10 for 43 yards, 1 touchdown and three interceptions on passes of 20-plus yards, per Next Gen Stats. The downfield game just hasn’t been there for Miami this season and it was less fruitful than ever in Week 15. On the other side, he is top-five in yards per attempt (7.1) and EPA per dropback (+0.25) on quick passes, per NGS. The 49ers have not given up much production on those quick throws this season. Their defense has started to take on serious water from an injury perspective, so it’s hard to know how instructive that data is at this point of the season. Neither team is going anywhere this year but both offenses will be looking to finish the year on a high note.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Most important Buccaneers storyline: The Cowboys defense was able to put a stop to the recent (relative) hot streak by the Panthers offense and give Bryce Young his worst game in months. It was primarily thanks to a game-wrecking effort from Micah Parsons up front. The Buccaneers offensive line will be tested in Week 16 but this is quietly one of the best units in the league. New figures on this team like Liam Coen and Bucky Irving have gotten the headlines. However, don’t overlook the play of rookie Graham Barton at center as a big reason why this offense has taken a leap. Several young holdovers like Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke have improved this season, as well. Tampa Bay needs this crew to continue their strong play to get through this week.
Most important Cowboys storyline: In Week 15 Rico Dowdle set a career-high in yards from scrimmage for the third straight week. He took 25 carries for 149 rushing yards. Dowdle has just been cranking out successful runs on the vast majority of his carries. He’s been an extremely efficient rusher. Over the last four weeks, Dowdle has handled 85% of the backfield carries and averaged 120 rushing yards per game, second among all backs in this span. There’s no question Dowdle has taken advantage of some great matchups against the Giants, Bengals and Panthers the past three weeks but that’s all we can ask from a rusher; crush the cakewalk spots. It’s not as if he will go against a juggernaut this week, as he draws a Bucs defense that allows the 10th-most rushing yards per carry this season.
SKIP
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
One reason to maybe watch: The Falcons had no choice but to bench Kirk Cousins at this stage. It remains to be seen if Michael Penix Jr. will be a tangible upgrade but Cousins was averaging 5.4 adjusted net yards per attempt in games against non-Bucs opponents this season.
At different points this season, I felt that, despite his clear limitations, Cousins would keep the floor afloat for the offense and adding Penix to the mix would create too much volatility. Given how badly Cousins had regressed of late physically on top of the mistakes, that floor had crashed out. Penix may not be ready to access the ceiling of this unit but his getting the start doesn’t change the floor outlook for the pass-catchers. The Giants’ injured defensive line and leaky secondary provide a soft landing spot for his first start.
Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals
One reason to maybe watch: Well, we aren’t watching for the Browns offense anymore. Getting Dorian Thompson-Robinson behind center after the understandable benching of Jameis Winston is a huge letdown for fantasy managers exclusively.
Jerry Jeudy is right now one of only 5 WRs with 1,000+ yards on the season. He ranked 52nd among WRs in receiving yards in the first 7 weeks of the season. https://t.co/NoN1ZXjSBQ
On the other side, the Browns play single-high at the second-highest rate among defenses, per Fantasy Points Data. As you’d expect, Ja’Marr Chase is going nuts against single-high with 60% of the team touchdowns and 3.14 yards per route run. However, much of his work has come on big plays in the open field, averaging 7.1 YAC per reception. Tee Higgins has been the shot guy vs. single-high. His 32% first-read target share is not far behind Chase (35%) and he has 400 air yards in nine games, while Chase has 672 in 14 games. Higgins popped up with a late-week injury in Thursday’s practice but if he’s available this week, he’s in a nice spot to rip some big plays.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
One reason to maybe watch: The Colts’ passing game continues to be shaky but they’ll operate on the other end of the matchup spectrum after playing in Denver last week. Since Week 10 the Titans’ pass defense has fallen apart. Tennessee ranks 28th in EPA per dropback and 29th in dropback success rate allowed. Here’s how the Colts’ route participation played out in Week 15 with Alec Pierce suffering a midgame concussion: Michael Pittman Jr. at 97.7%, Josh Downs 86%, Adonai Mitchell 46.5% and Pierce 44.3%. Despite Mitchell getting more playing time, Pittman and Downs owned the target share with 9 and 8 targets, respectively. If anyone is going to take advantage of this beat-up secondary, it’s those two players.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
One reason to maybe watch: Last week, we saw the Patriots use Christian Gonzalez to track the Cardinals’ top outside receiver around the field. That worked out well for the Patriots secondary overall and Gonzalez, in particular, showed out.
I can’t think of a worse offensive matchup for a game plan like that than the Buffalo Bills. The Bills don’t have a No. 1 receiver but they can hurt you in so many different ways. We’ve seen them go spread and shred to the wide receivers and then get heavy personnel on the field to attack with the backs in the span of two weeks. Joe Brady is operating at an extremely high level as the Bills offensive play-caller. How they approach this game will be fascinating but it’s worth noting the Patriots have been more vulnerable to tight ends and slot receivers. They have given up 90 yards to slot receivers since Week 10.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
One reason to maybe watch: The Lions offense should be the same dynamic force, even with David Montgomery out of the mix. Jahmyr Gibbs may well end up the top back in fantasy football with the backfield all to himself. On the other side, how their defense holds up and whether they continue to lean into their man-heavy tendencies on the backend after cluster injuries will be key. The Lions have played man coverage on 47.1% of opponent dropbacks since Week 10, per Fantasy Points Data, the highest rate in the league. Almost all of the Bears numbers against man coverage are hideous. However, if you’re looking for a silver lining, DJ Moore leads the Bears with 24 first-read targets, receptions and yards vs. man coverage this season, per Fantasy Points Data. And 16% of those targets have been designed plays like screens and such and he’s gained 6.3 yards after the catch per reception vs. man. At the very least, he looks in line for some scammy production.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
One reason to maybe watch: The deck has been completely cleared for Brian Thomas Jr. to be the engine of the Jaguars passing game.
Brian Thomas Jr. Weeks 1 to 11 – 19.7% target share – 25.7% air yard share – Targeted on 20.9% of his routes – 2.29 yards per route run – 6.4 YAC per reception
Brian Thomas Jr. Weeks 13 to 15 – 31.3% target share – 44.6% air yard share – Targeted on 30% of his routes – 2.23…
The dynamic rookie receiver earned this promotion long before the departure of injured veterans. In my opinion, he’s looked like an even better and more consistent player post-bye. His first-read target share is up from 22% in Weeks 1 to 11 to 37.5% in Weeks 13 to 15, per Fantasy Points Data. It’s pretty easy to see he’s the No. 1 player in the concept now, where it was more spread out with the veterans present before. This boost in usage has been key in offsetting any damage done to his weekly outlook playing in a brutal environment. Thomas gets a matchup with a Raiders defense that’s allowed the 12th-most yards per game to outside receivers since Week 10.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
One reason to maybe watch: Other than the fact that this doozy of a game will be the final game that decides a few fantasy football semi-final matchups? I’m tracking whether the Packers can continue to push the ball down the field. While the run game under Josh Jacobs has been electric since returning from the bye, we haven’t seen enough of the successful shots downfield to the outside from Jordan Love. That changed in Seattle last week. Per NFL Pro, Love had his second-highest deep-throw rate (22.2%) of the season. Despite that, he was still extremely efficient overall. The deep passing game being a consistently impactful addition, especially off play-action, is where this offense can really launch to another level.
