Sean Payton has been one of this league’s best coaches for a long time, winning a Super Bowl, leading amazing offenses with precision play-calling and having a great feel for what defenses do against him.
But he might be doing the best coaching job of his career this season — and that’s saying something.
Payton has taken the Denver Broncos, a team many picked to be one of the worst in the league, a team starting a rookie quarterback most thought was a reach in the first round, to being the No. 7 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. The Broncos are 7-5 after beating the Las Vegas Raiders, 29-19, on Sunday on the road, the first time they beat the Raiders on the road since 2015.
The Broncos now play two straight home games against the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts, both winnable games that could get them to 9-5 with three games to go. That would almost certainly get them into the playoffs.
The Broncos have been riding a top-level defense all season, but it’s the play of rookie quarterback Bo Nix that has elevated this team the past three games. In those games, Nix has eight touchdown passes and no interceptions. Payton, who had Nix as his hand-picked quarterback — even though most said he reached to take him with the 12th overall pick — does a great job of calling plays for Nix to make for easy throws and decisions.
But the thing that stands out from the past three weeks is Nix taking and hitting shots into the middle of the field with accuracy. He is certainly playing with more confidence, and the league has taken notice. He’s completely closed the gap in terms of betting odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year over at FanDuel, as it’ll likely be neck-and-neck between he and the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels down the stretch.
As for the defense, it’s special. It is third in points given up at 16.5 points per game, with only the Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions better. It is third in total defense, sixth in rush defense and ninth against the pass. It gives up a paltry 3.8 yards per rush, and it’s been 3.1 yards per rush over the past three games.
That run defense leads to second- and third-and-long situations, which leads to sacks. The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks with 44 as coordinator Vance Joseph turns his blitz-heavy group loose to menace quarterbacks. It may not be a group of stars on that side of the ball — aside from corner Patrick Surtain II – but they get after it. They play hard and tough and fast, and Joseph knows how to call a defense.
Denver, which is up to 10th in my latest Power Rankings, hasn’t exactly beat up on a brutal schedule. It has one victory over a team with a winning record and that is 6-5 Atlanta, who it beat up two weeks ago at home. But if the Broncos beat the remaining teams on their schedule who don’t have a winning record, they will be a playoff team. So no apologies needed, and they did go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in Kansas City three weeks ago, only to have a last-second field goal blocked to lose the game.
With a dominant defense, solid running attack and Nix hitting the timely passes when needed, the Broncos will be a playoff team. The question will be whether it can be more. Defense does win in the playoffs and it travels well. And then there’s always the Payton factor. He can flat out coach, and he’s proving it as well as ever with this team.
Biggest Movers
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Rk
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Teams
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Chg
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Rcrd
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1
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Lions
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They are a brutish, power team that can knock you off the ball and yet still hit shots off of that. The defense played well against the Colts.
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—
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10-1-0
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2
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Bills
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They went into their bye having scored 30 points or more in five straight games. This is one team that has to hope the bye didn’t slow them down.
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—
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9-2-0
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3
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Chiefs
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They won another close game last week, which has been a season-long trend. Playing close against the Panthers is not a good look.
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—
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10-1-0
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4
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Eagles
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Saquon Barkley is keying their offense right now, and the offensive line is mauling people. The defense has really come on over the past five games.
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1
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9-2-0
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5
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Vikings
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They went unbeaten in their three-game road trip, which is tough to do. They were all close, but that matters little in the record.
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1
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9-2-0
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6
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Ravens
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They got back to playing Ravens football on the road to beat the Chargers. They were physical and got Derrick Henry going again.
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1
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8-4-0
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7
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Packers
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They dominated the undermanned 49ers, but that’s what they had to do. The running game clicked with Josh Jacobs, and the defense came up big.
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1
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8-3-0
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8
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Chargers
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The top-ranked defense was exposed some in the loss to the Ravens. Now they have a tough road trip to face Atlanta, which is coming off a bye.
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1
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7-4-0
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9
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Steelers
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That was a bad loss on the road at Cleveland for a team pushing for the top seed in the conference. They face a tough division game at Cincinnati this week.
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5
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8-3-0
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10
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Broncos
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The schedule is favorable and they have a great defense, a great coach and a rookie quarterback who is growing every week. The playoffs are real.
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2
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7-5-0
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11
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Seahawks
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The defense has improved greatly since the bye. It seems they are getting a grasp of what coach Mike Macdonald wants them to do. They lead the division as we head down the stretch.
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3
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6-5-0
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12
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Cardinals
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They must have left their offense somewhere during the bye. They did nothing in the loss to the Seahawks. Kyler Murray has to be better.
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2
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6-5-0
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13
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Commanders
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Losing at home to the Cowboys is a bad look. They can’t afford many more losses or the playoffs will be gone.
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2
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7-5-0
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14
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Texans
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This team just isn’t right. Losing at home to the Titans won’t badly hurt their playoff chances in a bad division, but they need to get it going. C.J. Stroud looks off.
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1
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7-5-0
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15
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Dolphins
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Tua Tagovailoa has been outstanding since coming back. Now they have to end the narrative that they can’t beat teams in the cold when they go to Green Bay Thanksgiving night.
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6
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5-6-0
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16
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Buccaneers
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They dominated the Giants, and with a soft schedule the rest of the way, they can make a run. Getting healthy on defense is big for this group.
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3
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5-6-0
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17
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Falcons
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They come out of their bye off two straight losses with a tough game at home against the Chargers. They have to get the offense back on track.
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1
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6-5-0
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18
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49ers
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With so many injuries, this team hardly resembles the team that went to the Super Bowl last year. If Brock Purdy is out this week, their season might be over.
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3
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5-6-0
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19
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Colts
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Anthony Richardson is improved, but they still aren’t scoring enough points. They had a chance to make the division close with the Texans losing, but they didn’t play well against the Lions.
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2
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5-7-0
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20
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Rams
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They were mauled physically by the Eagles. So much for that late-season push they were expecting. The good news is the division is still tight.
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2
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5-6-0
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21
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Bengals
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They come out of their bye knowing they likely have to run the table to make the playoffs. It starts with a rough one against the Steelers.
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1
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4-7-0
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22
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Bears
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Caleb Williams was good in the loss to the Vikings, bringing them back late to get to overtime. That type of situation matters for the future.
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—
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4-7-0
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23
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Saints
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Two straight victories before the bye has them a magical run away from playoff possibility. It’s not likely, but you never know.
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1
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4-7-0
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24
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Cowboys
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Give them credit for showing up and winning at Washington when things looked bleak. If they beat the Giants this week, they are 5-7. Wow.
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2
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4-7-0
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25
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Browns
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Jameis Winston has brought this team some life. That was much needed. Too bad it happened too late.
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2
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3-8-0
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26
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Titans
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Will Levis is making progress — even if people won’t admit it. He is also taking a beating with 20 sacks in the past three games.
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3
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3-8-0
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27
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Patriots
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Drake Maye had his rookie game against the Dolphins, which can be expected. The defense did nothing to stop the Miami passing game, either.
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4
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3-9-0
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28
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Jets
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This season is toast. The coach and general manager are gone, but what happens to Aaron Rodgers?
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3
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3-8-0
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29
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Panthers
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Progress for Bryce Young is a good thing. And he is making it. Credit to him for improving.
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1
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3-8-0
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30
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Giants
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So much for Tommy DeVito adding life to this team. They are so bad right now.
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—
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2-9-0
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31
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Raiders
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They just aren’t good enough right now, which means changes are coming after the season. Just stink, baby.
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—
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2-9-0
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32
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Jaguars
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Coming off the bye, there were no firings. That’s not surprising the way ownership operates, but it doesn’t mean it’s right.
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—
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2-9-0
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