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Tag: Clubs

  • Champions League projections: Which big clubs will advance?

    • Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff WriterDec 12, 2024, 12:17 PM ET

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        Bill Connelly is a staff writer for ESPN.com.

    The first few matchdays of the 2024-25 Champions League campaign were a bit strange from a general vibes perspective. We saw plenty of interesting matches and great performances, but with the freshly expanded format — four more teams, two more matchdays, four-team groups ditched for a giant, 36-team table with two-thirds of teams advancing to the knockout rounds — it was hard to really glean the stakes of what we were seeing.

    It’s not hard anymore.

    In Matchday 6, we saw teams officially eliminated, we saw Liverpool lock up a top-eight finish and a bye to the round of 16, we saw a couple of Europe’s richest teams (Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain) get off the mat a bit, and we saw another one (Manchester City) continue its recent tailspin. We also saw lots of goals. Twelve of 18 matches had at least three of them, and seven had at least five.

    With this level of entertainment, it’s almost a shame that the competition will now basically take six weeks off — Matchdays 7-8 are in the last two weeks of January — but we’ll make do. The more time to prepare for the richest Relegation Six-Pointer of all time (Manchester City at PSG on Jan. 22), the better, eh?

    Let’s once again go country-by-country to look at who’s faring well, who’s flailing and which players performed the best in Matchday 6, the best of the competition thus far.

    The categories below:

    ‐ Title hopefuls: Teams with at least a 3% chance of winning the whole thing, per ESPN BET
    ‐ Fighting for the top eight: Teams with at least a 20% chance of finishing in the top eight of the league phase, per Opta
    ‐ Just hoping to advance: Teams with at least a 20% chance of finishing in the top 24, but a less than 20% chance of finishing in the top eight, per Opta
    ‐Playing out the string: Teams with an under 20% chance of finishing in the top 24

    ENGLAND: Liverpool and Arsenal are new title favorites, Manchester City’s tailspin continues

    TITLE HOPEFULS: Liverpool 16.2% (up 1.2% from last matchday), Arsenal 11.5% (up 0.6%), Manchester City 10.1% (down 3.6%)

    You know your season’s going pretty well when we can nitpick semi-comfortable wins, but Liverpool both clinched a top-eight finish and left plenty to be desired in their 1-0 win over Girona on Tuesday. They scored only via a soft penalty and goalkeeper Alisson, in his return from injury after a couple of months, had to come up with a couple of huge saves as Girona was able to open up the match at times, attempting 13 shots worth a decent 1.2 xG.

    This was the first time in five away matches that Liverpool didn’t allow at least two goals — they were stretched particularly open last week in a 3-3 draw at Newcastle — and they weren’t incredibly sharp against Girona either. But they handled their business, and they remain atop the table in both of the world’s most lucrative leagues.

    And now they have company.

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    1:36

    How Arne Slot has exceeded his own expectations at Liverpool

    Beth Lindop assesses Arne Slot’s “incredible” start to his managerial career at Liverpool.

    Two weeks ago after Matchday 5, Liverpool became the overall betting favorite at 14.9%, with Manchester City (13.7%) in second and Arsenal (11.0%) in fourth. With another City loss, Arsenal and Barcelona are now tied in the No. 2 spot. And more importantly in the short-term, Arsenal saw its chances of a top-eight finish and round-of-24 bye increase by more than 20 percentage points with Wednesday’s easy 3-0 win over Monaco. Both teams had plenty of the ball in the attacking half, but only Arsenal did anything with it. And when they leveraged the ball into the right side of the attack, dangerous things usually happened thanks to the Martin Odegaard-Bukayo Saka firewall.

    Saka continues to make a pretty good case for Best Right Winger in the World. He had two goals and an assist on Wednesday, and when Arsenal lost possession in his area of the pitch, he usually collected it back. He had seven ball recoveries and was one of the primary reasons why Arsenal dominated that category (they had 58% of the match’s ball recoveries).

    Check out his passing maps:

    Saka received 15 passes from either Odegaard, Thomas Partey or Declan Rice and sent 12 passes their way as well, and Monaco was unable to prevent the ball from flowing in their direction. Throw in a brilliant first 35 minutes from forward Gabriel Jesus — in which he had three shots worth 0.8 xG, then assisted Saka’s 34th-minute game-winner — and you had Arsenal at its best. Monaco’s Breel Embolo missed a golden opportunity in the 65th minute, then Arsenal put the match away with two goals in the last 15 minutes.

    You can make a pretty easy case that Liverpool and Arsenal are the two best teams in the world right now. In fact, it’s probably harder to make any other case. We’ll see what does or doesn’t change in the six weeks until Matchday 7.

    FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: Liverpool (100% chance of a top-eight finish), Arsenal (90.8%), Aston Villa (50.4%)

    On Tuesday night in Leipzig, Aston Villa won one of the most entertaining and impactful matches of the week, a 3-2 decision that bumped up their odds of a top-eight finish by more than 30 percentage points and officially eliminated RBL from advancing. This match had four spectacular goals and a spectacularly-deflected winner from Ross Barkley, and Villa took all three points despite a spectacular match from RBL left midfielder Antonio Nusa. The shot and xG totals were similar, and RBL actually generated more opportunities in the box, but Villa got Barkley’s long deflection and yet another long-range strike from Jhon Durán.

    He really might be the best pure finisher in the game at the moment.

    JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: Manchester City (0.0% chance of a top-eight finish, 90.8% chance of advancing)

    Zero point zero percent. Club soccer’s season is so long and arduous that it’s sometimes hard to know what to make of a team going on a hot or cold streak in the fall months. When it comes to the odds of accomplishing their goals, such a streak might not change things all that much. But Manchester City’s month-and-a-half from hell — 10 matches, one win, seven losses since Oct. 30 — has officially begun to derail their season.

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    Where is it going wrong for Pep Guardiola and Man City?

    Gab Marcotti and Rob Palmer discuss the problems faced by Pep Guardiola and his struggling Manchester City squad.

    According to Opta’s power ratings, City’s odds of winning the Premier League are down to just 3.8% now that they’re in fourth place and eight points back of Liverpool (Liverpool has a game in hand). And while they’re still quite likely to advance to the Champions League knockout rounds, they’re out of the running for a top-eight finish and bye, meaning they’ll have to survive an extra round in February. And with the way the table is clustered, with 12 teams at between eight and 11 points, that round-of-24 matchup could be against a team like Celtic, and it could be against a team like Real Madrid.

    At least the problems were different on Wednesday. That’s something, right? After watching their aging and thin midfield get overrun for weeks, resulting in tons of high-level scoring chances for opponents, City only allowed Juventus to attempt three shots worth more than 0.1. Unfortunately, two of those shots went in the net, including an All-American Tim Weah-to-Weston McKennie combination that put the match away.

    Meanwhile, Juve’s defense was an ode to catenaccio: They gave City all the possession they wanted and gave up absolutely nothing in dangerous areas. City attempted 228 passes in the attacking third (Juve: 24), but completed just one of 10 crosses in open play, attempted only four shots in the game’s first 64 minutes and saw six of their 12 total shot attempts blocked. Erling Haaland managed just 18 touches and two shot attempts: one was blocked by Manuel Locatelli, the other was saved by Michele Di Gregorio, and that was that. He saw almost no opportunity in the final 50 minutes.

    Based on preseason Opta simulations, the benchmark for advancing to the knockout rounds has basically been nine points. City are sitting at eight with two matches – one at PSG, one at home against Club Brugge. With the transfer market opening in three weeks, we might see a different City team for the rest of this competition. They could still catch fire in the second half of the season, as we’ve seen many times, but these are depths we have never seen from a Pep Guardiola team.

    PLAYING OUT THE STRING: none

    SPAIN: Nine points for LaLiga’s three heavyweights

    TITLE HOPEFULS: Barcelona 11.5% (down 0.6%), Real Madrid 11.5% (up 1.3%)

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    How Barcelona exposed ‘vulnerable’ Borussia Dortmund in the UCL

    Craig Burley and Alejandro Moreno react to Barcelona’s 3-2 win over Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League.

    After an incredible October run of seven wins in seven matches (scoring margin: 29-5), Barcelona began to skid a bit in November. The incredibly high Barcelona defensive line, a staple of manager Hansi Flick’s style, continues to draw opponents offside at rates we haven’t really seen before — they’ve drawn 37 offsides in this competition thus far, and the other 35 teams have averaged 12.2. But it’s been pierced a lot more in recent weeks, and beginning with a 1-0 loss to Real Sociedad on Nov. 10, they’ve won just one of their last five LaLiga matches.

    The Barca defense certainly proved vulnerable again at Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday, but in a wonderfully free-flowing match, they outscored the defending Champions League runners-up, 3-2, thanks to two late goals from substitute Ferran Torres.

    In American football, you’ll sometimes hear an announcer say something like, “This game will come down to whoever has the ball last.” This match was sort of the soccer version of that: both teams took turns dominating the ball and the attack in the second half, and Barca just happened to be the last one to take advantage. Regardless, they secured three vital points and all but assured themselves a round-of-24 bye. Considering the fatigue levels that come with executing the Flick system, that’s a pretty good prize.

    FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: Barcelona (90.5% chance of a top-eight finish), Atletico Madrid (37.8%)

    Outside of Liverpool and Arsenal, is there a better team in the world right now than Atletico Madrid? Granted, they got to pick apart Slovan Bratislava on Wednesday, one of the three teams in the competition with zero points. But their comprehensive 3-1 win backed up something that has been evident for a few weeks now.

    Manager Diego Simeone has exactly what he needs with this squad: Intensity, structure, industry and thanks to the combination of Antoine Griezmann and Julián Álvarez, just the right amount of creativity up front. The duo scored all three goals, and Atleti completely dominated in terms of both ball recoveries (they made 61% of them) and high turnovers (81%). They’ve won 10 in a row in all competitions (scoring margin: 30-7), and while peaking in December isn’t the single greatest way to win trophies, they’re overflowing with confidence at the moment.

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    Klinsmann: Mbappe getting back to his best at Real Madrid

    Jürgen Klinsmann reacts to Kylian Mbappe’s goal in Real Madrid’s 3-2 win over Atalanta in the Champions League.

    JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: Real Madrid (15.7% chance of top eight, 94.8% chance of advancing)

    December is evidently Bounceback Month for Real Madrid. Firmly ensconced back in the LaLiga race after taking 12 points from five matches (and watching Barcelona wobble a bit), they re-established their Champions League credibility as well with a 3-2 win over a dynamite Atalanta team. That bumped them from 24th to 20th in the giant Champions League table and eased the tension a bit.

    That said, they were pretty lucky to leave Bergamo with all three points. They took a 3-1 lead due to customary moments of brilliance — Kylian Mbappé’s lovely run in the 10th minute (assisted by Brahim Díaz), Vinícius Júnior’s advantageous strike off of a high turnover in the 56th minute and Jude Bellingham’s low screamer in the 59th — but were forced to bunker in and survive from there. Over the last 30 minutes, Atalanta attempted 10 shots worth 1.97 xG, and while Ademola Lookman brought Atalanta to within 3-2 with a low screamer of his own, the third goal never came, and Mateo Retegui missed a golden opportunity at the very end.

    Mbappe enjoyed a torrid start but came off with a thigh injury (it’s evidently not considered serious); still, though it felt like almost an upset, Real Madrid got three vital points.

    PLAYING OUT THE STRING: Girona (0.4% chance of advancing)

    GERMANY: Injuries don’t slow Bayern down

    TITLE HOPEFULS: Bayern Munich 10.1% (down 0.2%), Bayer Leverkusen 3.5% (down 0.4%)

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    Why Bayern Munich are ‘serious contenders’ to win the Champions League

    Jürgen Klinsmann assesses Bayern Munich’s form this season under Vincent Kompany.

    Sometimes, the worst thing you can do as an underdog against Bayern is score early. It wakes the German giants up. Left winger Kevin put Shakhtar Donetsk ahead 1-0 in the fifth minute in Gelsenkirchen, but Bayern charged ahead 2-1 and finished the first half with 13 shots to Shakhtar’s three. It was only 2-1, though, so Shakhtar pressed for a second goal in the second half and created some decent opportunities. But as is typically the case against Bayern, this eventually backfired. They scored in the 70th, 87th and 93rd minutes and cruised, 5-1.

    This seemed like a pretty good time to play Bayern – the Bundesliga leaders are incredibly banged up at the moment and were without striker Harry Kane, goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, left back Alphonso Davies and attackers Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman on Tuesday. With a draw against Borussia Dortmund, a DFB-Pokal loss to Bayer Leverkusen and a sloppy weekend win over Heidenheim, their domestic form had fallen off a bit. But they still had Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise, who combined for three goals, two assists and an incredible 11 successful 1v1s on Tuesday. That was more than enough to secure their third straight Champions League win.

    Olise was particularly dominant on the right side, constantly giving poor Shakhtar leftback Mykola Matviyenko and left-center back Alaa Ghram fits. Oh, and his mazy one-man goal in stoppage time was one of the highlights of the week.

    FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: Bayer Leverkusen (70.6% chance of a top-eight finish), Bayern Munich (64.7%), Borussia Dortmund (51.2%)

    While BVB’s top-eight odds slipped with the defeat to Barcelona, Bayer Leverkusen charged back into the conversation with a 1-0 win over Inter. Since getting pounded 4-0 by Liverpool in Matchday 4, they’ve won two in a row and raised their top-eight odds by more than 30 percentage points on Tuesday. And for as vulnerable as their defense has been at times in Bundesliga play (and at Anfield), they’ve outscored five Champions League opponents not named Liverpool by a combined 12-1.

    JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: Stuttgart (0.0% chance of top eight, 60.2% chance of advancing)

    Following a humiliating 5-1 defeat at Red Star Belgrade in Matchday 5, Stuttgart gave up an early goal at home against Young Boys, which felt pretty foreboding. But they responded vigorously, charging to a 5-1 win of their own and getting their odds of advancing back on the right side of 50%.

    The last two spots in the round of 24 could come down to PSV Eindhoven (77% chance), PSG (67%), Stuttgart (60%) or Dinamo Zagreb (29%). Stuttgart gets winless Slovan Bratislava in Matchday 7 … and then PSG at home in Matchday 8.

    PLAYING OUT THE STRING: RB Leipzig (0.0% chance of advancing)

    RB Leipzig has lost six matches by a total of seven goals. Sometimes it’s just not your year.

    ITALY: Hello, Juventus

    TITLE HOPEFULS: Inter Milan 4.8% (down 0.7%), Juventus 3.5% (up 1.5%)

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    How Juventus & McKennie dealt a huge blow to Man City’s UCL knockout hopes

    Recap Manchester City’s 2-0 loss to Juventus in the Champions League.

    After opening the competition with two wins, Thiago Motta’s Juventus pulled just two draws from their next three matches, matching the stolid form that has produced an incredible nine draws from 15 Serie A matches this season. (They’re unbeaten in league play but in sixth place, a difficult combination to execute.) But after Wednesday’s 2-0 win over City, ESPN BET gives them the eighth-best title odds, tied with Bayer Leverkusen.

    That might be an overreaction, but Wednesday was a reminder that this team has upside. And while they rarely win, they evidently never lose.

    FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: Inter Milan (78.9% chance of a top-eight finish), AC Milan (42.4%), Atalanta (23.0%), Juventus (22.6%)

    AC Milan picked the wrong time to play Red Star Belgrade: the Serbian champs found their footing with a huge win over Stuttgart in Matchday 5 and tilted the field in their favor for large portions of Wednesday’s match in the San Siro. But they had no good ideas in the attacking third (they were 1-for-16 on open-play crosses) and with the match tied at 1-1 late, Tammy Abraham gave Milan a huge three points.

    The win raised Milan’s odds of a top-eight finish to nearly 50%. Inter’s odds, meanwhile, sank a good amount.

    Inter’s Simone Inzaghi is one of the most adaptable managers in the game: it’s one of the main reasons why Inter have won six trophies in three seasons and are the defending Italian champions. But sometimes the answer never comes. On Tuesday in Leverkusen, Inter offered absolutely nothing of note, attempting just six shots (none worth more than 0.11 xG and only one after the 40th minute) and suffering a meek 1-0 loss. Their defend-and-counter routine produced nothing in the counters department, and while they nearly stole a 0-0 draw, Nordi Mukiele’s 90th-minute goal took even that away from them.

    Field tilt is the percentage of passes each team makes in the attacking third. Leverkusen’s field tilt: 81.5%. Inter barely even had anyone with an average positioning in Leverkusen’s half.

    This was only Inter’s second loss in any competition this season, so it’s forgiven. But it still dropped their odds of a top-eight finish from 91% to 79% and dropped their title chance, per ESPN BET, under 5%. It wasn’t the most damaging loss in the world, but it wasn’t a very good performance.

    JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: none

    PLAYING OUT THE STRING: Bologna (0.0% chance of advancing)

    FRANCE: PSG rebounds (for now)

    TITLE HOPEFULS: none

    FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: Brest (31.4% chance of a top-eight finish), Lille (26.2%)

    They aren’t going to win this competition, but man, has it been fun watching Brest and Lille find themselves in Champions League play. Both have their distinct identities: Brest do the bunker-in-and-counter thing well and beat PSV Eindhoven on Tuesday with pure intensity and a couple of moments of brilliance from Julien Le Cardinal, while Lille comes at you with 1v1s and a high defensive line. They briefly lost control of their match with Sturm Graz on Wednesday, allowing goals on both sides of halftime, but Lille’s eventual 3-2 win kept them in the top eight for now.

    JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: Monaco (3.5% chance of top eight, 98.1% chance of advancing), PSG (0.0% top eight, 67.0% advancing)

    It was only Salzburg. It’s important to point that out. The recent Austrian giants haven’t been in any way giant this season and have fallen out of the top 150 (and only a few spots ahead of the Houston Dynamo) in Opta’s power rankings. But after going four matches without a win in Champions League play, and three straight overall, PSG was able to build some confidence with an easy 3-0 away win on Tuesday. They weren’t able to fully put the match away until scoring twice in the last 20 minutes — and they once again underachieved slightly against their xG values (they now have just six goals from shots worth 11.2 xG) — but Salzburg never offered much of a threat, and the result was never really in doubt.

    Gonçalo Ramos’ presence makes such a difference. With both his scoring and pressing abilities, Ramos seemed custom-built to lead a Luis Enrique front line, but he missed three months with an ankle injury and has only recorded 256 minutes in all competitions this season. His 30th-minute goal put PSG ahead for good, and he might have helped Bradley Barcola enjoy his first standout Champions League performance of the season. (The level of competition probably didn’t hurt.)

    Barcola didn’t score, but he was ridiculously dangerous, winning 10 of 15 1v1 attempts (both of those numbers are huge) with 20 combined progressive carries and passes. He’s got 10 goals and two assists in Ligue 1 play and zero of either in the Champions League, but he did everything but score on Tuesday. And the win kept their advancement hopes alive ahead of Manchester City’s late-January visit.

    PLAYING OUT THE STRING: none

    EVERYONE ELSE: Feyenoord takes flight

    TITLE HOPEFULS: none

    FIGHTING FOR THE TOP EIGHT: none

    JUST HOPING TO ADVANCE: Sporting CP (8.8% chance of top eight, 99.6% chance of advancing), Benfica (3.7% top eight, 98.1% advancing), Celtic (0.2% top eight, 95.1% advancing), Feyenoord (2.0% top eight, 94.1% advancing), Club Brugge (0.5% top eight, 87.0% advancing), PSV Eindhoven (0.0% top eight, 76.9% advancing), Dinamo Zagreb (0.0% top eight, 29.2% advancing)

    Two weeks ago, Feyenoord’s odds of advancing were down to nearly 50-50 following a surprising 3-1 home loss to RB Salzburg. Then they found themselves down 3-0 against Manchester City in Matchday 5. But the late comeback and 3-3 draw lit a fire, it seems. Against a Sparta Prague team happy to exchange haymakers on Wednesday, Feyenoord put on an extraordinary finishing display, bolted to a 3-0 lead and cruised 4-1.

    They’re all but guaranteed to advance now, and … man oh man, the Feyenoord home crowd just sounds different than most crowds:

    We had two interesting matches between teams in the “Hoping to Advance” category on Tuesday. Celtic and Dinamo Zagreb played an intense but wary 0-0 draw, then Club Brugge continued its hot streak with a 2-1 home win over Sporting. It was Sporting’s fourth straight loss in all competitions, and their odds of a top-eight finish and a knockout-round bye have plummeted from 75% just two matchdays ago.

    But while confidence may be dissipating in the weeks following manager Ruben Amorim’s departure for Manchester United, they were basically fine on Tuesday night. Brugge were just a hair more clinical and got a lovely Gustaf Nilsson-to-Hans Vanaken-to-Casper Nielsen game-winner in the 84th minute.

    Brugge have now gone unbeaten in 11 straight matches in all competitions and have taken seven points from their last three Champions League matches.

    PLAYING OUT THE STRING: Red Star Belgrade (2.5% chance of advancing), Shakhtar Donetsk (1.2%), Sparta Prague (0.4%), Sturm Graz (0.2%), RB Salzburg (0.0%), Slovan Bratislava (0.0%), Young Boys (0.0%)

    Red Star have looked increasingly dangerous in this competition but evidently waited too late to get going. But with a home match against PSV Eindhoven in Matchday 7, they could still play a role in who advances to the next round.

    THE BEST XI OF MATCHDAY 6

    This was easily the hardest Best XI I’ve had to come up with in this competition. We had some serious star performances.

    Goalkeeper: Ivan Guteaa, Red Star Belgrade

    The late strike from Tammy Abraham was a heartbreaker for Red Star as a whole, but especially Gutesa, who made a whopping eight saves and according to the postshot xG values, prevented 1.8 goals with those saves.

    Backup: Lukasz Skorupski, Bologna

    Fullback: Achraf Hakimi, PSG

    Two assists from four chances created, plus 13 defensive interventions. Hakimi remains maybe the best all-around fullback in the sport.

    Backup: Joshua Vagnoman, Stuttgart

    Central defender: Marquinhos, PSG

    There still might not be a better center-back in the world when it comes to ball progression. He not only completed 123 passes (17 more than anyone else), he also completed 42 progressive passes; no one else had more than 23.

    Backup: Cameron Carter-Vickers, Celtic

    Central defender: Ryan Flamingo, PSV Eindhoven

    Find yourself a defender who can both ensure great ball progression (Flamingo’s 78 pass completions were worth 0.7 expected assists, most of any center-back in Matchday 6) and disrupt the hell out of your opponent’s attack (his 19 defensive interventions were seventh-most).

    Backup: Nicolás Otamendi, Benfica

    Fullback: Nordi Mukiele, Bayer Leverkusen

    PSG has cornered the right back market. Not only do they have Hakimi, but they also loaned Mukiele to Bayer Leverkusen, where he enjoyed a breakthrough performance on Tuesday: 22 combined progressive carries and passes, 12 defensive interventions and a lovely game-winner:

    Backup: Andy Robertson, Liverpool

    Midfield: Angelo Stiller, Stuttgart

    The Stuttgart attack was in fifth gear for most of Wednesday evening, and with 27 combined progressive carries and passes and four fouls drawn (plus nine ball recoveries), Stiller was the accelerant for that. He scored, too.

    Backup: Enzo Millot, Stuttgart

    Midfielder: Antonio Nusa, RB Leipzig

    RBL has been snake-bitten in this competition, but Nusa still enjoyed a breakout performance on Tuesday, creating four chances, drawing three fouls and going 5-for-6 on 1v1s. He was testing Aston Villa all night.

    Backup: Mahdi Camara, Brest

    Midfielder: Jude Bellingham, Real Madrid

    Bellingham can produce do-it-all numbers like no one else. In Tuesday’s vital win over Atalanta, he combined 13 defensive interventions with a goal, two chances created and a 5-for-8 performance in 1v1s. He was everywhere.

    Backup: Youri Tielemans, Aston Villa

    Winger: Michael Olise, Bayern Munich

    Two goals, one assist, 12 progressive carries and 6-for-11 on 1v1s. For my money, Olise was the best player of Matchday 6.

    Backup: Fabian Rieder, Stuttgart

    Centerforward: Ademola Lookman, Atalanta

    Lookman has played 17 matches in all competitions this season. He’s scored at least once in nine of them, and he’s created at least three chances in eight. He had a goal and two chances, plus a season-high 14 progressive carries, against Real Madrid on Tuesday. He’s unreal.

    Backups: Antoine Griezmann, Atletico Madrid; Loïs Openda, RB Leipzig; Ferran Torres, Barcelona

    Winger: Bukayo Saka, Arsenal

    Two goals, one assist, seven ball recoveries. Saka was probably the second-best player of Matchday 6. Olise and Saka were so good that somehow Stuttgart winger Fabian Rieder, with three assists, didn’t even make the Best XI.

    Backup: Bradley Barcola, PSG

  • How the Sergachev trade altered Utah Hockey Club’s course

    • Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporterDec 10, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

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        Ryan S. Clark is an NHL reporter for ESPN.

    SALT LAKE CITY — Bill Armstrong’s ability to work the phones this offseason is why Ryan Smith’s wouldn’t stop buzzing.

    As GM of the Arizona Coyotes, Armstrong was charged with trying to build a franchise while remaining conservative in how he spent salary cap space — for a franchise that historically had mountains of it, but worked to stay near the cap floor.

    With the club relocating to Salt Lake City, new owners Ryan and Ashley Smith wanted to make the sort of changes that went beyond the club having a new address, color scheme and name ahead of the Utah Hockey Club’s first season.

    They wanted to send a message that their rebuild was done. They sent that message by pulling off a trade to get top-pairing defenseman Mikhail Sergachev.

    “I got a text from a bunch of different people about him, getting Johnny Marino and some of the other players that we’ve got,” Smith said. “But you also don’t want to be dumb. You don’t want to come in right at the beginning and throw and push above where we are as a team.”

    Landing Sergachev in a trade from the Tampa Bay Lightning was just the start of what Utah did in the offseason. In total, the UHC added five players who added an extra $19 million in salary cap space — another sign that the Smiths were willing to spend on a franchise that had historically had miserly ownership when it was in Arizona.

    The long rebuild meant that the team came to Salt Lake City with a young core featuring captain Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton, Lawson Crouse, Sean Durzi, Matias Maccelli and Nick Schmaltz. Now it was about determining what was the best way to supplement that core so it could take the next step in its evolution.

    Sergachev’s arrival speaks to those aspirations. He’s a 26-year-old, two-time Stanley Cup winner that can log heavy minutes, create offense in one end, disrupt it in another, quarterback a power play and anchor a penalty kill.

    He can now operate in all those roles as an undisputed No. 1 defenseman rather than as No. 1-in-waiting — which was the case when he was in Tampa Bay with Victor Hedman, the 2018 Norris Trophy winner and six-time finalist.

    Going from a personnel logjam on one team and instantly becoming one of the new team’s most important players isn’t new. Yet what makes the Sergachev trade unique is it provides a window into how Utah could operate going forward.

    This is why several people around the Utah Hockey Club are optimistic about Sergachev and the potential that he presents.

    As for Sergachev himself? He understands why these expectations exist, but also believes that’s something he needs to earn rather than just have it handed to him.

    “That all sounds great until you play,” Sergachev said. “You gotta deserve that role first of all and show it in the season. You can’t just be like, ‘We’ll give you 30 minutes.’ I’ve got to go in and show them that I’m ready for all those things.”

    SOME OWNERS WANT to know everything about everything; some want to be hands off. Smith lives in the middle: he wants to know everything, so he can trust his people to do their jobs.

    That particular philosophy comes from Smith growing up in Utah and later owning the Utah Jazz. Longtime Jazz owner Larry Miller was extremely involved with the team, which made an impact.

    “I’ll never forget that Jerry Sloan was also here 18 years,” Smith said. “And the only reason Jerry Sloan was here for 18 years was because Larry was so involved he knew exactly what he was doing, how good and exactly what was going on. When you’re not involved, you make bad decisions. … When you’re not in the details, you can’t really see the work that’s going on.”

    This offseason, Armstrong, Smith and Utah president of hockey operations Chris Armstrong had a conversation about the team’s needs. They all agreed that defense was a priority, which was the first step in the club getting Sergachev.

    The next step was Armstrong calling every team in the NHL and asking them if they would be interested in trading their No. 1 defenseman. Armstrong said every GM was respectful — but there were some who chuckled because those trades aren’t exactly common. “We planted seeds,” Armstrong said. “Those guys are impossible to get. Nobody wants to give up their best defenseman at a young age. We kind of moved past it and moved on to plan B, and were starting to look at some other trades. And then the phone rang.”

    The Lightning were on the other end of the call. They presented Armstrong with a proposal involving Sergachev. Armstrong said the initial proposal was turned down, but it didn’t take long for both sides to reach an agreement.

    Sergachev headed to Utah, with defenseman J.J. Moser, prospect center Conor Geekie, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2024 seventh-round pick (Noah Steen) going in the opposite direction.

    Armstrong said moments like the trades to land Sergachev and John Marino speak to how the franchise is no longer in a rebuild and is ready for something more.

    “It’s hard, man. It’s hard to find those guys. It’s almost pretty much impossible,” Armstrong said. “When you’re building a team and trying to win a championship, nobody wins unless you have a No. 1 goalie, a No. 1 defenseman and a No. 1 center. We try to get those No. 1 building blocks in place. That is the first key for us.”

    SERGACHEV FRACTURED THE FIBULA and tibia in his left leg on Feb. 7, which kept him out until the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in April.

    Prior to the injury, Sergachev was practically an every-game player for the Lightning. He played in 70 or more games in five of his first six seasons in Tampa Bay; the lone season he didn’t hit 70 games was the 2020-21 campaign, when he skated in all 56 of the club’s games in the pandemic-impacted season.

    He had 19 points in 34 games last season before he sustained the leg injury, which allowed him to rethink his priorities during a long layoff.

    “I was focusing on the wrong things,” Sergachev said. “I was focusing on [playing on the] first power play and focusing on not playing 27 minutes but playing 23. Stuff like that was the wrong focus. The main focus should be playing the game the right way, and helping the team win. And if they give you the first-team or second-team power play, you take it and run with it.”

    Sergachev projected as a top-pairing defenseman as a prospect, and the Montreal Canadiens drafted him ninth overall in 2016. That projection led the Lightning to trade for him a year later — with Jonathan Drouin heading the other way — although they already had a franchise legend in place as their No. 1 blueliner, in Victor Hedman.

    Sergachev scored 40 points as a rookie and continued to score 30 points or more over the next four seasons. By his third season, he was beginning to average more than 20 minutes per game while becoming a presence on both special teams units.

    Hedman, by comparison, had more assists than Sergachev had total points from 2017-18 through 2021-22.

    “I was wanting to be ‘the guy’ there, and I was focusing on that,” Sergachev said. “Victor has been on that team forever. He’s won a Norris Trophy, he’s won Cups, he’s won the Conn Smythe — he’s won everything. He’s a rock. He’s impossible to move.”

    Sergachev said everything changed during the 2022-23 season. The Lightning moved him to the top power-play unit. That led to him finishing with a career-high 64 points, with 27 of them coming with the extra-skater advantage.

    Hedman finished with nine goals and 49 points that season. Aside from the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season, it was the first time since the lockout-shortened 2013 season that Hedman finished with fewer than 10 goals. Hedman’s 14 power-play points that year were also his fewest since the 2015-16 season.

    “I feel like he felt uncomfortable too, for sure,” Sergachev said of Hedman. “When they put me on the first power play two years ago, that must have felt uncomfortable. It felt uncomfortable for me last year that I wasn’t given a chance. It’s kind of like a back and forth of unneeded stress for him and unneeded stress for me.”

    Anaheim Ducks left winger Alex Killorn, who spent 11 seasons with the Lightning, said Hedman and Sergachev were close, and there was never animosity between them.

    “They got put in tough situations where maybe one guy gets taken out of the first power play for the other guy,” Killorn said. “It causes [no problems] between them, but guys are competitive in the NHL and they want to be in those spots.”

    Sergachev echoed that sentiment.

    “Oh no. He’s my best friend. I love him to death,” Sergachev said. “He’s been so great to me and I’ve learned a lot from him. Everything I know now and do on the ice is from him.”

    SPEAKING IN OCTOBER, Sergachev spoke cautiously about his role with the Utah Hockey Club. He understood that he could be asked to serve in several roles, while acknowledging that nothing was promised to him despite the blockbuster trade that brought him to the team.

    Come December, he’s been as good as advertised. He leads Utah with 25:24 in average ice time, which ranks fifth in the NHL. He’s second among all NHL skaters in short-handed minutes, while he’s 11th among defensemen in power-play-minutes.

    Sergachev is projected to finish with what would be his first 20-goal season, while his 55 points would be the second most he’s recorded in his career.

    “He is a top-of-the-line NHL defenseman who can play in just about every style and just about do everything on the ice,” said Utah defenseman Ian Cole, who was also Sergachev’s teammate in Tampa Bay. “He’s well put together. He’s strong. He can play hard. He can play skillfully. He can shoot the puck. He can score goals. He can run the power play. He can kill penalties. He can do everything. I think that’s why he gets paid the salary he does and it’s why he’s in demand as he is.”

    Cole, Marino and Sergachev were brought in this offseason to reinforce a defensive unit for a roster that could have a chance at making the playoffs in its first season; the group took a hit when Marino and Durzi were both injured in October, and are not expected back until the spring. The team promoted Maveric Lamoureux from the minors, and traded for veteran Olli Maatta to help absorb the blow.

    Utah’s defensive zone performances have played an instrumental part in the club establishing its identity throughout the first quarter of the season. Natural Stat Trick’s metrics reveal that Utah is allowing the second-fewest high-danger goals per 60 minutes, the seventh-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60, the eighth-fewest scoring chances per 60 and the ninth-fewest shots allowed per 60.

    Having that defensive consistency has served as a counter to the offensive challenges that the UHC has faced. As of Dec. 9, the UHC was tied for 19th in goals per game (2.93), and has scored more than three goals in just 11 of its first 27 games.

    “That’s a locker room that maybe hasn’t done a ton of winning, but you can see they’re trending the right way,” Killorn said. “[Sergachev is] going to be a big piece for them going forward.”

    If Utah remains in the hunt for a playoff spot, they are in position to make a significant move ahead of the March 7 trade deadline. PuckPedia projects Utah will have $23.6 million in deadline day cap space, and could use any of its 26 draft picks over the next three years to facilitate a deal.

    Armstrong said that last season saw the team go through “some good, some bad and some ugly,” with the idea that they’d learn from the struggles. He said their start last season proved they have the talent, and that the 14-game losing streak showed why it was important to always strive for consistency.

    “[Last season] left scar tissue,” Armstrong said. “I’m excited to see what we do with that scar tissue.”